If you don't retain, your rebilling will decrease as well, I explained that above. Your retention/rebilling rate will be within a certain ratio, no matter if some of your members rebills for 10 years or 1 month or never, they will be included within that ratio. That's why I used amount of members to ease visualization, the numbers will include those rebilling for years as well as those not rebilling at all.

And I choose 51% because I tried to demonstrate that you need 1% over the "amazing retention rate". Just 1%. Do you know any company working towards that 1%? I mean, it's just 1%! There might be a few, but I don't know of any so far.

The numbers of Robbie regarding some sponsors show you that no matter what, if you don't retain you don't rebill. He's talking about 70% and 90%+ drops, since he's on revshare, the same numbers will apply to the sponsor (at least on that given account). Again: This time I'm not even talking about growing 1%. I'm talking about shrinking 50%+ exponentially!!!

Just to avoid confusion, that's the revenue each country gets, not the money they spend. China's 60%+ of that revenue accounts for novelty sex toys (no surprise). Still it leaves you with a few hundred million people to work with. As for the info, do a search for Global Pornography Revenue

100 sales, 25 rebills. (25% rebill rate)
100 sales, 25 rebills + 12 from the previous month.
100 sales, 25 rebills + 12 + 6.

I now have 43 members.. Real retention is 25% per month, total members to monthly sales, it's 43% at the end of 3 months.. and with all sales it's 14% retention. So breaking it down, per month, 3 months, cycles of months, daily, money.. it doesn't make a difference..

The member base is growing...



As long as you are adding sales, your retention ratio can be like 5% and you will still grow, because to calculate or even show an example of retention ratio, you have to factor in the compounding rebills and time.






What Robbie is talking about 100% directly is related to the volume of sales he sends in and has NOTHING to do with the actual retention ratio of the site. He stopped sending sales, it's 100% fact that rebills will bomb after a period of time.

Lets see

If its non exclusive that means that

a) the chances of you or an affiliate getting the gallery listed is very low as tons of people are submitting the same content

b) the user has seen it on other sites, maybe a site that fucked him or whatever, people like fresh stuff, exclusive does matter and matters allot

Also this message is to robbie, rebilling carries over to a new card even if the exp. changes, I didnt know that either but recently was told about this.

I don't believe that's accurate.

In the first month, you have 0 members to start.

Month 1: 100 sales = 100 Members End of Month (no rebills yet)
Month 2: 100 sales + 25 rebills from prior month (25% of 100) = 125 Members EOM
Month 3: 100 sales + 31 rebills from prior month (25% of 125) = 131 Members EOM
Month 4: 100 sales + 32 rebills from prior month (25% of 131) = 132 Members EOM
Month 5: 100 sales + 33 rebills from prior month (25% of 132) = 133 Members EOM
Month 6: 100 sales + 33 rebills from prior month (25% of 133) = 133 Members EOM

You can't rebill half a member, so under this scenario you are stuck at 133 members through infinity.

In the real world, these things are never as cut and dried obviously, but the fact remains that regardless of your rebill rate, if your initial sales stay stagnant as in this example, your total membership will reach a plateau and stay there.

Trying to increase the percentage of members who rebill each month is definitely a worthwhile goal, as it likely goes right to the bottom line, but increasing initial sales is crucial to a growing program.

Cool.. always learning :)

Is it the same for this?

Those sweeping fraud card cancels, even if the card didn't have fraud on it? Visa/mc had like 3 or 4 major fraud issues last year, the one time a machines(s) got stolen, had like some crazy millions of cards on it.

If I remember correctly, we did see a drop in rebills after that.

Spot on. In fact that's the first thing I do when I join a website. I'll cancel the automatic billing and wrap things up with that first before I ever set foot in the members area.

Is that a recent development? I know for a fact that I had to re-do my Stats Remote subscription for that very reason. And I also had to re-do my Phantom Frog rebilling subscription as well. These things happened in the last few months.

I have also answered support emails in the last couple of months from members who wanted to know what happened to their membership and after going back and forth we discovered it was the card expiration date.

By the way, I'm talking bank cards here. The "credit" / debit cards that you get when you open a bank account. Those seem to represent a big chunk of sales as opposed to "true" credit cards.

It's what I used for my Stats Remote and Phantom Frog subscriptions. And it was what was used by the members I mentioned.

So maybe that doesn't hold true for that type of card?

shocking is more like it:winkwink: I almost passed on opening the link but glad I did not...

Your numbers show the exact same thing as mine.. it doesn't make a diff if I start with 0 or not, or if you include the .25's or not, but you can add those in, just round up.

I also did my math a bit different too, I split the 2nd month and afterwards, rather than a continual 25%..

Anyway, the point of all this was two things... the rebill % is under 50% and a site can still grow, even with my extreme example, with set numbers.. the site.. grew. A limit "appears" to be set because we FORCE the rebills to run out.. that wouldn't naturally happen even on the worst site, which is why I split.

If you figure in the 2% or lets just say 1 person per month that will never cancel. Then your math, grows again. That's why I had said, add a few % to the compounding rebill, and your site never dies, but that also happens naturally..

That isn't much different than what you said "Trying to increase the percentage of members who rebill each month is definitely a worthwhile goal"

Just 1 extra rebill can make ALL the difference in the world :)

I heard a "rumor" that WellsF "bank credit cards" aren't processing U.S. Cards through International high risk merchant accounts...

didnt read it................... fiddy

that i dont know

this old writeup explains it all and will answer your questions too

http://itmanagement.earthweb.com/col...le.php/3611246

Later pimpz.. I gota go get the wife and look at houses... Keep the thread going, this has been a fun info filled thread :)

That's the answer. Anyway, it seems to me you're counting initial join+converted join+rebill ratio. If so, that's were the confusion is

PS: I just noticed you have a blog and take a quick look on some posts, very informative. One of those speaks about what I was mentioning above about business in crisis times. Needless to say I agree 100% :thumbsup

I want to clarify things: I did better with non-exclusive content on initial sales. And I could do that because I did whatever I wanted. I've no doubt that doing it with exclusive content under my own specs would do even better, and I've no doubt exclusive content kicks non-exclusive in the retentions/rebilling field, no matter what scenario.

Of course, that's my personal experience. Although I could give you a better example: On those sites I posted stats above, the content was non-exclusive, and same goes for the promo material (galleries). Quite seen, quite old content. Then again, TGP owners might have seen it throughout the years, but I'm sure they see it less than the latest Bangbros or Juggcash sets that are everywhere. And that makes a difference too. There's a chance today's surfers didn't see the old content, but they see each and every Bangbros (or brazzers or whatever) set 100 times per day. So it comes as no surprise everybody is complaining about retentions when everybody and his mother is trying to sell the same, to the same people, with the same content.

On the other hand, you're on a special position. You dominate in your niche and I'm sure there must be very few people in the biz (if any) that knows more about it, hence you're kinda stuck to shoot your own content, and for what I know, you do quite well. See, I shot some spanking sets some time ago, and they're nowhere similar to yours. To me, mine made more sense at the time. However, if I've to believe which ones are better, I'd say your content rather than mine, since you know your niche way better than me :)

bump for some nice discussion :thumbsup

The one thing that nobody has mentioned yet which is even more important than retention is how much profit a site is making.

You could have 100 new members a month and have 33% of them rebill but if an exclusive content shoot is costing you $500 each time you want to run an update, your profit margins are going to be way lower than someone going to WWC and buying a DVD, ripping it, and updating with that every day of the week.

Retention and new sales mean absolutely nothing... If you arent running your site to generate a profit :2 cents:

The bottom line number any business owner should be looking at isnt retention or new sales, its how profits are growing each week/month/year.

If your profit margin stays the same and you are update regularly, you are doing something wrong.

You could have a 100% retention rate and still have an unprofitable business.

First off - If you have the same amount of sales every month and 1% retention you will still grow, just at a minimal amount.

Secondly - Of course, if you make less sales... you have less sales to retain, so financially you are losing out on profits.

Cool.. Another great example why setting everything equal skews the numbers.


Your second comment simply backed up what I said, mine was an example, that would skew the numbers. The point was looking at your retention numbers can trick you, making it appear you are doing well or bad, and not be be true.

Well you should have posted your first part at the end then. By posting it first it makes it sound like you're making that argument first which doesn't not make much sense.

:thumbsup:thumbsup

The only "argument" going on here is the one you attempted to start but failed at.