What %% of the adult biz do you think will die off in 09 with the economic chrisis

[Loch]

And would that mean that companies that actually hang in there will make more money by the end of 2009 as a result of a less saturated market compared to the consumer spending power?

Any thoughts?

[Nicky]

Hard to say, I don't have the speculated numbers for 2008 which would help in a case like this.

[Loch]

Right now as i see it its all over the map, some VERY new companies seem to blossom....most likely as they are not as scared as others that are older and really seeing the su's drop.....

I have seen companies starting to shoot exclusive productions for the first time ever...

And others going from shooting 130 scenes a month to now 20...

[Barefootsies]

There are a handful of factors that could shake it up more or less. Economy, credit card rules, and so forth. But in Jan, I predicted around 40% would be gone by end of 2009.

The boards, all of them, are getting slower. More names disappearing. On some other boards, I know of people going to get 9-5's, or investing in RL businesses now giving up adult/online.

It should be interesting on who makes it, but more over, what the sales look like with a thinned out herd.

[Loch]

Originally Posted by Barefootsies

It should be interesting on who makes it, but more over, what the sales look like with a thinned out herd.

See this one could really really make some people rich....

[Barefootsies]

Originally Posted by Loch

See this one could really really make some people rich....

Agreed.

My thought process on it was,... the tubes will have lost some of their 'newness' or appeal. People start looking for new content. A lot of the beer money barons are back at their McGriddles. And by that time programs, and independents will have retooled their sites to better serve customers with exclusive or better content, more delivery options, and choice..

Sales may jump back up for those who are left.

[Nicky]

Originally Posted by Barefootsies

Agreed.

My thought process on it was,... the tubes will have lost some of their 'newness' or appeal. People start looking for new content. A lot of the beer money barons are back at their McGriddles. And by that time programs, and independents will have retooled their sites to better serve customers with exclusive or better content, more delivery options, and choice..

Sales may jump back up for those who are left.

Let's hope shall we.

[Loch]

Well i for one have NEVER invested and/or spent as much in my life as i have since about first quarter of 2008...so in the last 12 months.
Slower gain now, ohh im SURE....but everything turns around.

Would be interesting to see if the tubes can keep up with the BW bills as well if too many of their "sponsors" die off.....less pay sites more tube usage, less income for tubes....and some are bound to crash,

Well that is the way i see it with my somewhat limited knowledge of the surfer side of adult

[Barefootsies]

Originally Posted by Nicky

Let's hope shall we.

I know I am working on some new things for content delivery, and I have heard rumblings some other people, companies, programs are doing things... from content, to new scripts, offerings, to better position themselves.

Cross your toes.

[Barefootsies]

Originally Posted by Loch

Well i for one have NEVER invested and/or spent as much in my life as i have since about first quarter of 2008...so in the last 12 months.
Slower gain now, ohh im SURE....but everything turns around.

Would be interesting to see if the tubes can keep up with the BW bills as well if too many of their "sponsors" die off.....less pay sites more tube usage, less income for tubes....and some are bound to crash,

Well that is the way i see it with my somewhat limited knowledge of the surfer side of adult

Agreed.

I know that the content of tubes will out pace most production houses. As more fold, less content. Those who have the new content will work on new ways to lock it down.

The issue is kind of complex because of the different surfer types. I know me, I can't always get off to the same old classic scene for a month. However others can. Some will watch some blurry shit to jerk off to, I can't. I will try and track down the HD or quality version and pay for it.

It should be interesting...

[Loch]

Well im off for now, leave some comments people!

[polish_aristocrat]

my current overall income is not worse than 2 years ago, however what I considered a very stable part of it, is down a lot
i'm compensating with temporary stuff that might die soon (though it might take off more as well)

aside from all that, I'm kinda bored with this webmaster life, I wouldn't mind doing something in real life instead of in front of the PC

these two reasons are enough to work on an exit strategy, though working in McD's isn't a part of it

[Furious_Female]

15-30% of adult companies take a dive

But not because of the economy. It would have happened anyway; mainly due to the industry's poor self-regulation and ability to make wise decisions for its future.

Some will make more now than ever. Others will flop out completely. It's the nature of the beast; survival of the fittest.

[HorseShit]

I clicked on all the check boxes

[PornAffiliate]

Crossing my fingers for tube sites to get more traffic since they're so easy to start with aebn's white label feature now.

[marketsmart]

lucky for me, i can now buy ten times as many stolen cards to bang...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...Y2M&refer=home

[CarlosTheGaucho]

I would predict the following:

1) the marketability to the traffic pool that could be effectively exploited will continue to marginally shrink,

Those, who are marketing the same content, that's not only marketed by 1000 of their competitors, but also available everywhere for free, will continue to see very notable drops in conversion rates and traffic, as more and more traffic will leave the affiliate promos and free sites with teasers to get full length around the corner

This will be resulting in less exclusive sites, less updating and more scamming

2) the free madness and oversaturation of the surfer with general looking porn will go so far, that even those, who are making a dime on huge illegal sites, will have to look for other ways of income

3) several content producers will run out of business, the amount of new content, produced on exclusive basis will shrink

4) the big multi distribution channel companies with tradition, that were building their brands and distribution for years, will get into real trouble as the potential of the market for general looking porn will not be there.

They'll most probably undergo massive restructuralisation on the edge of bankrupcy, facing that not only no one new is interested in what they market (general super duplicated product), but also that their existing customer will easily find cheaper or more interesting alternatives, resulting in overall drop of income

This won't apply for Hustler, as Hustler has probably the best online and TV setup from all the big brands

[Loch]

Originally Posted by Furious_Female

15-30% of adult companies take a dive

But not because of the economy. It would have happened anyway; mainly due to the industry's poor self-regulation and ability to make wise decisions for its future.

Some will make more now than ever. Others will flop out completely. It's the nature of the beast; survival of the fittest.

Well add the crisis to that and we are certainly NOT looking at a better scenario
Heck in desperate times as some are seeing people and industries tend to self regulate even worse out of sheer desperation.

We have already seen examples on that right here on GFY (Yeah i know of all places huh? lol)

[Loch]

Originally Posted by CarlosTheGaucho

3) several content producers will run out of business, the amount of new content, produced on exclusive basis will shrink

Ohh yeah that part of the business will be down WELL over 50% for damn sure.
That business was struggling before W fucked up the world!

[skrinkladoo]

Much like the drug game. When 1 shuts down 2 new will start-up. So % to shut down is somewhat 1-sided without the % to start up. FACT: This industry will never die, i dont mean to be so blunt, but this is just evolution. Some will adapt and some will be killed off. Its a natural process and a long time coming for the adult industry.

It happens much faster and much more often in the main stream, so to those of you who have been in both sides main stream and adult - this is nothing new. You will likely survive.

To those of you who have been primarily adult industry i really am not suprised your running scared. Adult industry has become bloated, set in its ways - the oldschool players have made their money and now see they have to work for it - those guys are likely to be out soon.

Lets put this in perspective its 2009, the internet became somewhat popular in 92-94 (yes it was around prior to 92 but not really popular). So its under 20 years old, the end of days is nowhere in sight ... at best its infantile.

This is why technology is so attractive.
This really means new exciting technology will be born soon. Example: Realtouch, its already starting ...

[Loch]

Originally Posted by skrinkladoo

Much like the drug game. When 1 shuts down 2 new will start-up. So % to shut down is somewhat 1-sided without the % to start up. FACT: This industry will never die, i dont mean to be so blunt, but this is just evolution. Some will adapt and some will be killed off. Its a natural process and a long time coming for the adult industry.

It happens much faster and much more often in the main stream, so to those of you who have been in both sides main stream and adult - this is nothing new. You will likely survive.

To those of you who have been primarily adult industry i really am not suprised your running scared. Adult industry has become bloated, set in its ways - the oldschool players have made their money and now see they have to work for it - those guys are likely to be out soon.

Lets put this in perspective its 2009, the internet became somewhat popular in 92-94 (yes it was around prior to 92 but not really popular). So its under 20 years old, the end of days is nowhere in sight ... at best its infantile.

This is why technology is so attractive.
This really means new exciting technology will be born soon. Example: Realtouch, its already starting ...

Almost makes me thing of the chaos theory.....most sides of the adult industry is in chaos right now, no one really know what the hell will happen in the next 12+ months.
Who knows, we just might see a much better and professional business model after all of this

[»Rob Content«]

Originally Posted by Loch

Almost makes me thing of the chaos theory.....most sides of the adult industry is in chaos right now, no one really know what the hell will happen in the next 12+ months.
Who knows, we just might see a much better and professional business model after all of this

Keep dreaming, since the dawn of time in business people always find the best way to make money, ethics have nothing to do with it.

Most problems in adult these days are caused by things we've done to our self.

[SleazyDream]

in a recession people spend MORE on porn

[Loch]

Originally Posted by SleazyDream

in a recession people spend MORE on porn

A recession has several fazes though in which they will go from spending almost Zero to a LOT, each faze can be years.....

[Loch]

Originally Posted by »Rob Content«

Keep dreaming, since the dawn of time in business people always find the best way to make money, ethics have nothing to do with it.

Most problems in adult these days are caused by things we've done to our self.

Nahh man, recession makes people do foolish things.

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by Barefootsies

My thought process on it was,... the tubes will have lost some of their 'newness' or appeal. People start looking for new content. A lot of the beer money barons are back at their McGriddles. And by that time programs, and independents will have retooled their sites to better serve customers with exclusive or better content, more delivery options, and choice..

Sales may jump back up for those who are left.

Tubes will suffer worse with the downturn, they have fixed costs that can't be trimmed. Unless sponsors want to host for them.

When they go the customer will drop down to the next best option FOR HIM, if it's a paysite then fine. If it's not then more sites will fall.

Originally Posted by Furious_Female

15-30% of adult companies take a dive

But not because of the economy. It would have happened anyway; mainly due to the industry's poor self-regulation and ability to make wise decisions for its future.

Some will make more now than ever. Others will flop out completely. It's the nature of the beast; survival of the fittest.

Agreed, 15% would of closed down without the recession. The down turn started long before. It started when the traffic stopped increasing at enough pace to keep up with the loss of customers.


The problem is simple, we either change the way we do business or we go out of business. We are changing and we are trimming cost. We will survive.

[Barefootsies]

Originally Posted by CarlosTheGaucho

3) several content producers will run out of business, the amount of new content, produced on exclusive basis will shrink

4) the big multi distribution channel companies with tradition, that were building their brands and distribution for years, will get into real trouble as the potential of the market for general looking porn will not be there.

Agreed. Any of the WM forums are not truly representative of 'the industry'.

There are many more independents, mom and pops, niche, and small productions companies you do not see on the boards (clips4sale types), shows, etc.. They are not going anywhere.

The BRO monoliths will need to restructure, but the 'bulk', I assume you are talking numbers alone here, are not going anywhere.

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by Barefootsies

Agreed. Any of the WM forums are not truly representative of 'the industry'.

There are many more independents, mom and pops, niche, and small productions companies you do not see on the boards (clips4sale types), shows, etc.. They are not going anywhere.

The BRO monoliths will need to restructure, but the 'bulk', I assume you are talking numbers alone here, are not going anywhere.

There are also some very big and successful sites you never or rarely see on the boards. Unless it's affiliates singing their praises.

This would make a good thread.

"Successful Big Programs That Don't Post On Boards."

Some of the big "Bro" programs will be going down. It's about income and out goings. Some are cutting costs to the bone.

[blazin]

Keeping my stuff alive till I make a success of my a social media application.

[»Rob Content«]

Originally Posted by Loch

Nahh man, recession makes people do foolish things.

So why were people banging hidden pre checked x sales years ago?

[seeandsee]

Tubes will rule

[Loch]

Originally Posted by »Rob Content«

So why were people banging hidden pre checked x sales years ago?

There will always be a small percentage in ANY business doing something like that, that is the nature of the human race!

[CarlosTheGaucho]

Originally Posted by Paul Markham

There are also some very big and successful sites you never or rarely see on the boards. Unless it's affiliates singing their praises.

This would make a good thread.

"Successful Big Programs That Don't Post On Boards."

That's a good suggestion, I know for a fact a couple sites that started as a hobby and make their owners serious money these days.

I doubt they even miss GFY though.

[XR2]

Constructive destruction.

There are way too many people in the industry now, as the entry costs and know how have become rediculously low/easy, so this correction should be seen as a necessary part of the cycle. Its unfortunate that we all have to go through a bit of pain, but thats life.

Tube sites will suffer since sponsors, will have to push down commissions, however since bandwidth prices are falling, some of the loss of income may be offset. I think people will start to get fatigued of tube sites anyway.

For me, in london(UK), my worry is that like so many other industries the site fronting/build/hosting, is all going to move to india/china, where labour and entry costs are even lower and then nobody in the US/West EU will be able to compete, unless they want to sleep in a box under a bridge, and use eu de piss...

[JimmiDean]

By the way I am now cleaning up my toplists of deadlinks on a weekly basis I think many will fail in 2009.
However it seems many of these are very small Mom and Pop membmasters that no longer bring in enough cash to survive or make it worth their time.
I am however suprised at so many new start ups that only last six months, it would appear that if riches are not instant many just give up.
So in a nuthshell established programs continue to do well but may have to drop some employee's and their advertising budgets, medium size programs continue to be bought up and the little guys continue to pack it in.
Of course there are going to be tons of exceptions but over all I see this trend growing in 2009.

[CarlosTheGaucho]

Originally Posted by XR2

For me, in london(UK), my worry is that like so many other industries the site fronting/build/hosting, is all going to move to india/china, where labour and entry costs are even lower and then nobody in the US/West EU will be able to compete, unless they want to sleep in a box under a bridge, and use eu de piss...

Good points,

As for outsourcing, according to my recent and painful experience, I seriously believe many will rather pay for reliability.

Especially if we are talking about one time investments (design, video work) etc.

My experience with outsourced work is rather negative, practically you have to constantly control if every single step is according to the WRITTEN assignment.

And you constantly find out it's not.

So then you have to haggle about refunds / extra time / etc. and everything is WAY delayed beyond wearable limits.

This was a major headache, I don't think I'll be using any "cheaper and dedicated" outsourcing service ever again.

[XR2]

Originally Posted by CarlosTheGaucho

Good points,

As for outsourcing, according to my recent and painful experience, I seriously believe many will rather pay for reliability.

Especially if we are talking about one time investments (design, video work) etc.

My experience with outsourced work is rather negative, practically you have to constantly control if every single step is according to the WRITTEN assignment.

And you constantly find out it's not.

So then you have to haggle about refunds / extra time / etc. and everything is WAY delayed beyond wearable limits.

This was a major headache, I don't think I'll be using any "cheaper and dedicated" outsourcing service ever again.

Totally agree, unfortunately people see cost savings first, and then learn the consequences later, this was one of the reasons I moved from technology in banking to online adult, every bank that I worked for just kept on moving work to india, and yes the quality was exceptionaly shit, but they(the banks) did not seem to care. The online adult industry of course is very different since its driven by the constant need for survival and innovation, and is not by fat city shareholders, but earning $10/week in china/india if worth a hell of alot more than in Europe/North America.

I did a bit of research the other week on tubes sites and its scary how many originate from either china or india, they start small and then move to US hosting. I get requests daily to include them in a couple of Tube SE sites I have, and they are all from China/India. Having said that, this of course is great if you live there...maybe I should learn Gujarati and move to Cheni