YouTube Is Doomed

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  • Paul Markham
    Too old to care
    • Jun 2001
    • 52942
    #1

    YouTube Is Doomed

    YouTube Is Doomed

    It seems safe to assume that YouTube?s traffic will continue to grow, with no clear ceiling in sight. Since the majority of Google?s costs for the service are pure variable costs of bandwidth and storage, and since they?ve already reached the point at which no greater economies of scale remain, the costs of the business will continue to grow on a linear basis. Unfortunately, far more user-generated content than professional content makes its way onto the site, which means that while costs grow linearly, non-monetizable content is growing geometrically as compared against the monetizable content that YouTube really wants and needs to survive. This means less and less of YouTube?s library will be revenue-contributing, while the costs of delivering that library will continue to grow.
    Comments please.

    I think they will run it for ever as a tax loss. But it proves traffic is only the first step, you have to sell the traffic something to make a profit.



    Blowout deal. 880 videos, 2,400 image sets, plus many RAW videos. $500.
    PM me for a deal. Skype Paulmarkham70
    Tags: None
    • the.drunk
      Confirmed User
      • Apr 2009
      • 712
      #2
      i think they will forever grow


      find good domains : free epassporte : whitelabel webcams
      CONTACT ICQ 591549611

        Comment

        • Ozarkz
          So Fucking Banned
          • Jan 2009
          • 2377
          #3
          They should sell premium features like Vimeo..

          I guess they can't sell ads on the top/bottom of youtube because companies are worried about what video their banner may show up on?

            Comment

            • mynameisjim
              Confirmed User
              • Aug 2007
              • 2985
              #4
              Thing is, why didn't Youtube do the Hulu thing before Hulu??? I thought Google was full of geniuses.

              I visit Hulu more than Youtube. The only time I watch a youtube video is when it gets posted somewhere.

              They missed the boat.
              jim (at) amateursconvert . com Amateurs Convert

                Comment

                • HookUPcom
                  Confirmed User
                  • Sep 2008
                  • 1235
                  #5
                  You mean to tell me once you put up years of family vacations, videos of the kids, etc. you won't be willing to pony up $50 a year...

                  IMO
                  icq: 364-320-971

                    Comment

                    • heymatty
                      Confirmed User
                      • Oct 2001
                      • 2188
                      #6
                      The data collected from youtube is one of the most valuable things a media company like google can have access too.

                      Cashlantis ~ Black Book Cash

                        Comment

                        • pocketkangaroo
                          Confirmed User
                          • Jan 2005
                          • 8452
                          #7
                          Originally posted by heymatty
                          The data collected from youtube is one of the most valuable things a media company like google can have access too.
                          Exactly. They don't care if YouTube makes money, they just want the user data. They want targeted advertising and the more information they have on each surfer the better. If you think YouTube was purchased for the profit potential, you don't know how Google operates at all.

                            Comment

                            • Iron Fist
                              Too lazy to set a custom title
                              • Dec 2006
                              • 23400
                              #8
                              Hulu is great if you live in the states.... Google is worldwide.
                              i like waffles

                                Comment

                                • CybermedAndy
                                  Confirmed User
                                  • Jul 2004
                                  • 4170
                                  #9
                                  Originally posted by sharphead
                                  Hulu is great if you live in the states.... Google is worldwide.
                                  Yep.. kills me we can't access the site here in Canada

                                    Comment

                                    • maxpower
                                      Confirmed User
                                      • May 2006
                                      • 734
                                      #10
                                      Hulu is what all tubes wish they could be

                                        Comment

                                        • mynameisjim
                                          Confirmed User
                                          • Aug 2007
                                          • 2985
                                          #11
                                          I keep hearing about how that user data will be worth a fortune one day but they better pull the trigger soon. The way people use the internet and access the internet can change very quickly, making all that old data useless in only a few years.
                                          jim (at) amateursconvert . com Amateurs Convert

                                            Comment

                                            • Raf1
                                              Too lazy to set a custom title
                                              • Oct 2003
                                              • 12117
                                              #12
                                              a company like google has more than one way of benefiting from youtube...
                                              80% Revshare or 30$ PPS on $1 trials: 200 Niches = Vidz.com Galleries / FLVs / Embeds
                                              3 & 5mins FLVs | RSS & Tube Feeds | Matching Thumbs | FLV Browser & Exporter | No Prechecked Xsales
                                              >> Mobile Redirection Script: mobile.vidz.com also paying 80% net Lifetime << ICQ: 198-394-557

                                                Comment

                                                • ladida
                                                  Confirmed User
                                                  • Nov 2005
                                                  • 2179
                                                  #13
                                                  Lol. If it were doomed, you would not see them increase upload size limit, and bring the HD.. It's going nowhere.
                                                  agentGFY *at* gmail.com

                                                    Comment

                                                    • Antonio
                                                      Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                      • Oct 2001
                                                      • 14136
                                                      #14
                                                      Originally posted by ladida
                                                      Lol. If it were doomed, you would not see them increase upload size limit, and bring the HD.. It's going nowhere.
                                                      it will go aaway eventually, this is the Interwebz we are talking about - nothing lasts forever

                                                      I remember when the e-groups (later yahoo groups) was the coolest thing ever, they lasted for good few years, the same will happen with youtube - something bigger or brighter will come up

                                                        Comment

                                                        • maxpower
                                                          Confirmed User
                                                          • May 2006
                                                          • 734
                                                          #15
                                                          Originally posted by Antonio
                                                          it will go aaway eventually, this is the Interwebz we are talking about - nothing lasts forever

                                                          I remember when the e-groups (later yahoo groups) was the coolest thing ever, they lasted for good few years, the same will happen with youtube - something bigger or brighter will come up
                                                          This is true, this is the net 10 years is a lifetime if they make 20 and anyone still cares I will be shocked really

                                                            Comment

                                                            • MindWaste
                                                              Confirmed User
                                                              • Mar 2001
                                                              • 3662
                                                              #16
                                                              um put ads at the end before you can see related vids after a imbeded player finishes the vid.
                                                              Traviss Solomon ----- HOGDICE.COM
                                                              HOGDICE.COM is a broken website if you have advice email me....

                                                                Comment

                                                                • Paul Markham
                                                                  Too old to care
                                                                  • Jun 2001
                                                                  • 52942
                                                                  #17
                                                                  Originally posted by heymatty
                                                                  The data collected from youtube is one of the most valuable things a media company like google can have access too.
                                                                  Data on people looking at videos on Youtube. Manner from heaven.

                                                                  Originally posted by mynameisjim
                                                                  I keep hearing about how that user data will be worth a fortune one day but they better pull the trigger soon. The way people use the internet and access the internet can change very quickly, making all that old data useless in only a few years.
                                                                  I would say it's not worth that much from day one.
                                                                  Last edited by Paul Markham; 04-15-2009, 02:08 AM.



                                                                  Blowout deal. 880 videos, 2,400 image sets, plus many RAW videos. $500.
                                                                  PM me for a deal. Skype Paulmarkham70

                                                                    Comment

                                                                    • DK
                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                      • Nov 2001
                                                                      • 1273
                                                                      #18
                                                                      You tube just implemented it's PPC!
                                                                      It will survive and thrive
                                                                      skype: romeoblu

                                                                        Comment

                                                                        • MindWaste
                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                          • Mar 2001
                                                                          • 3662
                                                                          #19
                                                                          Originally posted by DK
                                                                          You tube just implemented it's PPC!
                                                                          It will survive and thrive
                                                                          the drp up box with buy song from itunz you talkin about?
                                                                          Traviss Solomon ----- HOGDICE.COM
                                                                          HOGDICE.COM is a broken website if you have advice email me....

                                                                            Comment

                                                                            • seeandsee
                                                                              Check SIG!
                                                                              • Mar 2006
                                                                              • 50945
                                                                              #20
                                                                              they should sell ads chepa and doing high volume that would be a start point
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                                                                                Comment

                                                                                • PSSuperstars
                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                  • Jan 2006
                                                                                  • 1477
                                                                                  #21
                                                                                  Originally posted by pocketkangaroo
                                                                                  Exactly. They don't care if YouTube makes money, they just want the user data. They want targeted advertising and the more information they have on each surfer the better. If you think YouTube was purchased for the profit potential, you don't know how Google operates at all.
                                                                                  thirded.
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                                                                                    • Davy
                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                      • Apr 2006
                                                                                      • 4323
                                                                                      #22
                                                                                      Youtube = Google
                                                                                      Google = endless reservoir of money
                                                                                      ---
                                                                                      ICQ 14-76-98 <-- I don't use this at all

                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                        • DK
                                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                                          • Nov 2001
                                                                                          • 1273
                                                                                          #23
                                                                                          Originally posted by MindWaste
                                                                                          the drp up box with buy song from itunz you talkin about?
                                                                                          No, I'm referring to this:

                                                                                          https://ads.youtube.com/index
                                                                                          skype: romeoblu

                                                                                            Comment

                                                                                            • Odin
                                                                                              Confirmed User
                                                                                              • Jan 2004
                                                                                              • 2545
                                                                                              #24
                                                                                              Well they ran at a lost and outlasted all the VC funded competition pretty much (still a few around, but they will outlast them). Now they will turn the screws and pump the advertising, etc as they have been and make money. Be interesting to see what happens.
                                                                                              ICQ: 637//961--015

                                                                                                Comment

                                                                                                • gideongallery
                                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                                  • Aug 2003
                                                                                                  • 7082
                                                                                                  #25
                                                                                                  Originally posted by Paul Markham
                                                                                                  YouTube Is Doomed



                                                                                                  Comments please.

                                                                                                  I think they will run it for ever as a tax loss. But it proves traffic is only the first step, you have to sell the traffic something to make a profit.
                                                                                                  you do realize that user generated content is the one that pays to promote themselves on youtube.

                                                                                                  getting in promoted video for the keyword you tagged is as simple as paying each click. And none of the outside consulting firms that keep doing this "youtube is losing money analysis" ever see those revenue stats.

                                                                                                  I have done youtube viral campaigns before, buying yourself to the front page is a really cost effective way to get a lot of views. and more and more people are doing it every day.

                                                                                                  “When crimes occur through the mail, you don’t shut the post office down,” Steve Wozniak

                                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                                    • nation-x
                                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                                      • Mar 2004
                                                                                                      • 5370
                                                                                                      #26
                                                                                                      the other way they are losing out is this:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npJ3nTS9UqQ

                                                                                                      Show me the ads... there aren't many. they have poor monetization of these pages.

                                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                                        • Dirty Dane
                                                                                                          Sick Fuck
                                                                                                          • Feb 2004
                                                                                                          • 9491
                                                                                                          #27
                                                                                                          Aren't they currently making some deal with music/film industry?
                                                                                                          I think when all torrent sites are gone (it WILL happen sooner or later) they will make money off it.

                                                                                                            Comment

                                                                                                            • gideongallery
                                                                                                              Confirmed User
                                                                                                              • Aug 2003
                                                                                                              • 7082
                                                                                                              #28
                                                                                                              Originally posted by nation-x
                                                                                                              the other way they are losing out is this:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npJ3nTS9UqQ

                                                                                                              Show me the ads... there aren't many. they have poor monetization of these pages.
                                                                                                              you don't think the mashup link above the fold is a PAID LINK

                                                                                                              “When crimes occur through the mail, you don’t shut the post office down,” Steve Wozniak

                                                                                                                Comment

                                                                                                                • nation-x
                                                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                                                  • Mar 2004
                                                                                                                  • 5370
                                                                                                                  #29
                                                                                                                  Originally posted by gideongallery
                                                                                                                  you don't think the mashup link above the fold is a PAID LINK
                                                                                                                  Yeah... but don't you think they should have adsense on there or something?

                                                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                                                    • Manowar
                                                                                                                      jellyfish  
                                                                                                                      • Dec 2003
                                                                                                                      • 71528
                                                                                                                      #30
                                                                                                                      yeah it's going down

                                                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                                                        • cykoe6
                                                                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                                                                          • Apr 2005
                                                                                                                          • 4499
                                                                                                                          #31
                                                                                                                          I don't have an expert opinion on this but the idea that Google is too diabolically clever to ever make a mistake or pursue a dead end strategy is ridiculous. 10 years ago it was Microsoft and Yahoo who could do no wrong and would soon take over the entire world. As companies become bigger and require more market share to keep their growth rates high enough to please the markets they have a tendency to overreach. Market share and revenue growth do not always equal long term profitability.
                                                                                                                          бабки, шлюхи, сила

                                                                                                                            Comment

                                                                                                                            • montel
                                                                                                                              Confirmed User
                                                                                                                              • Jul 2001
                                                                                                                              • 2606
                                                                                                                              #32
                                                                                                                              Originally posted by heymatty
                                                                                                                              The data collected from youtube is one of the most valuable things a media company like google can have access too.
                                                                                                                              So they spend 600 mil a year to get that data? Seem kinda pricey considering they surely get enough information from their search engine. What would you rather- raw search terms from Google or finding out that the person is a habitual watcher of cute panda home movies (which they would likely know from the search terms on Google already - that is my whole point here.)

                                                                                                                              If you add on some other data collection points like Google Analytics on god only knows how many pages and also Gmail reading all your mail already, Youtube for data collection at 600 mil a year seems a bit of a rich?

                                                                                                                              No, Google wanted to monetize it with ads and found they couldn't. They fucked up so far and it is looking like a mistake. Claims this 600 mil a year of value is gained though data collection could only be swallowed the most committed Google fanboy.
                                                                                                                              Barefootsies

                                                                                                                                Comment

                                                                                                                                • potter
                                                                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                  • Dec 2004
                                                                                                                                  • 6559
                                                                                                                                  #33
                                                                                                                                  once again you prove you have no insight or sense of business on the internet

                                                                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                                                                    • dirtymind
                                                                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                      • May 2008
                                                                                                                                      • 2348
                                                                                                                                      #34
                                                                                                                                      i don't care for hulu we have itv here which has the same stuff and more i saw that i think you can see every in the world.
                                                                                                                                      skype: codercarlos

                                                                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                                                                        • TheDoc
                                                                                                                                          Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                          • Jul 2001
                                                                                                                                          • 13827
                                                                                                                                          #35
                                                                                                                                          The article was written by a guy owns a VIDEO ADVERTISEMENT service..

                                                                                                                                          I have also heard more than one price now for the 2009 bw cost. And it "appears" people are taking the financial reports, chopping the bw and adding in the ads, and "thinking" that is how you calculate profit for a company.

                                                                                                                                          Anyway - Google offers 100's of free services it currently does not make money on and they do not plan on dropping. Clearly, they see a bigger picture with the tools, that we don't.


                                                                                                                                          Back to the article... "Unfortunately, far more user-generated content than professional content makes its way onto the site, which means that while costs grow linearly, non-monetizable content is growing geometrically as compared against the monetizable content that YouTube really wants and needs to survive."


                                                                                                                                          How wrong is that? Amateur videos kill it with advertisements on youtube.. hell some are so bad you can't watch the damn video. Seems to me, the more professional they are, the less advertisements I see.

                                                                                                                                          You would think a video traffic ceo dude would know this, by simply looking.
                                                                                                                                          ~TheDoc - ICQ7765825
                                                                                                                                          It's all disambiguation

                                                                                                                                            Comment

                                                                                                                                            • TheDoc
                                                                                                                                              Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                              • Jul 2001
                                                                                                                                              • 13827
                                                                                                                                              #36
                                                                                                                                              Originally posted by Paul Markham

                                                                                                                                              I think they will run it for ever as a tax loss. But it proves traffic is only the first step, you have to sell the traffic something to make a profit.
                                                                                                                                              They sell the traffic/exposure to themselves... Go ask the old lady that looks like she is about to die if she knows what Google is, then ask a 3 year old, and find anyone else you like and ask them.

                                                                                                                                              Now, what do you think the #1 sold thing on youtube is?
                                                                                                                                              ~TheDoc - ICQ7765825
                                                                                                                                              It's all disambiguation

                                                                                                                                                Comment

                                                                                                                                                • bronco67
                                                                                                                                                  Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                  • Dec 2006
                                                                                                                                                  • 29032
                                                                                                                                                  #37
                                                                                                                                                  The second YouTube goes offline, everyone on the planet will have a small boost in their internet speed.

                                                                                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                                                                                    • DamianJ
                                                                                                                                                      Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                      • Jul 2006
                                                                                                                                                      • 15808
                                                                                                                                                      #38
                                                                                                                                                      Hmm.

                                                                                                                                                      Paul Markham's Comprehension of YouTube business model Vs Google's long term plans...

                                                                                                                                                      I know who'd I'd back.

                                                                                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                                                                                        • Libertine
                                                                                                                                                          sex dwarf
                                                                                                                                                          • May 2002
                                                                                                                                                          • 17860
                                                                                                                                                          #39
                                                                                                                                                          YouTube is neither a failure nor doomed, and Google's goal with it isn't (mainly) direct income or data collection.

                                                                                                                                                          What they want is to build broad, lasting customer loyalty. To be omnipresent in consumer's online lives.

                                                                                                                                                          A single search engine can easily be replaced by another one. Remember AltaVista?

                                                                                                                                                          But if a person has a google account which is linked to his email address, his youtube account, his blogger account, his orkut account, his feedburner account, etc., he can't just leave Google.

                                                                                                                                                          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Google_products

                                                                                                                                                          Google wants to be a part of virtually aspect of your online life. They don't create the content, they create the framework in which you can create, consume and search the content. This is a long-term plan, not a short-term one. Google are very aware of the fact that missing the "next big thing" could well mean losing market share across the board.

                                                                                                                                                          Imagine for a moment that YouTube had been acquired by Microsoft instead of Google. YouTube accounts would have been integrated with Windows Live accounts, thereby further increasing the market share of Hotmail and Messenger. It would also have boosted MSN.com (possibly through far-reaching intregration of the two) and Live Search. Essentially, Google's online market share would have been broadly compromised, and with it its stronghold in online advertising.
                                                                                                                                                          /(bb|[^b]{2})/

                                                                                                                                                            Comment

                                                                                                                                                            • slapass
                                                                                                                                                              Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                              • Nov 2002
                                                                                                                                                              • 14625
                                                                                                                                                              #40
                                                                                                                                                              Even Google has admitted that they need to monetize youtube so all you saying they are rocking are nuts.

                                                                                                                                                                Comment

                                                                                                                                                                • FetishWeb
                                                                                                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                                  • May 2004
                                                                                                                                                                  • 390
                                                                                                                                                                  #41
                                                                                                                                                                  Originally posted by Paul Markham
                                                                                                                                                                  YouTube Is Doomed



                                                                                                                                                                  Comments please.

                                                                                                                                                                  I think they will run it for ever as a tax loss. But it proves traffic is only the first step, you have to sell the traffic something to make a profit.

                                                                                                                                                                  The youtube "doom theories" were a lot more plausible 3-4 years ago. Even then none of them came true.

                                                                                                                                                                  What's so special about yet another idiot's opinion on youtube's theoretical demise? Especially when said idiot is the "ceo" of a company trying to sell video hosting services that no one has ever heard of.

                                                                                                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                                                                                                    • Joshua G
                                                                                                                                                                      dumb libs love censorship
                                                                                                                                                                      • Jul 2008
                                                                                                                                                                      • 8198
                                                                                                                                                                      #42
                                                                                                                                                                      great article.

                                                                                                                                                                      But this has nothing to do with adult tubes, who exist to parasite off the legitimate porn industry. As long as they get advertising dollars for airing stolen content, they can control their costs to make money. Youtube has a burden of storing non-monetizable content (AKA schlock videos from john q public) that adult tubes do not share.

                                                                                                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                                                                                                        • slapass
                                                                                                                                                                          Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                                          • Nov 2002
                                                                                                                                                                          • 14625
                                                                                                                                                                          #43
                                                                                                                                                                          Originally posted by Libertine

                                                                                                                                                                          But if a person has a google account which is linked to his email address, his youtube account, his blogger account, his orkut account, his feedburner account, etc., he can't just leave Google.
                                                                                                                                                                          My google and youtube account are seperate. Are yours linked? I don't even see it as an option on my google account.

                                                                                                                                                                            Comment

                                                                                                                                                                            • Libertine
                                                                                                                                                                              sex dwarf
                                                                                                                                                                              • May 2002
                                                                                                                                                                              • 17860
                                                                                                                                                                              #44
                                                                                                                                                                              Originally posted by slapass
                                                                                                                                                                              My google and youtube account are seperate. Are yours linked? I don't even see it as an option on my google account.
                                                                                                                                                                              You can log into youtube with your google account.
                                                                                                                                                                              /(bb|[^b]{2})/

                                                                                                                                                                                Comment

                                                                                                                                                                                • Deesnuts
                                                                                                                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Feb 2009
                                                                                                                                                                                  • 2792
                                                                                                                                                                                  #45
                                                                                                                                                                                  you can never kill it!!!!

                                                                                                                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                                                                                                                    • Nautilus
                                                                                                                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Sep 2002
                                                                                                                                                                                      • 1631
                                                                                                                                                                                      #46
                                                                                                                                                                                      I always wondered why showing ads at amateur videos is not possible and why they're not "monetizable". What's the problem with showing some ad next to the video of some one getting his kids to Disney land?
                                                                                                                                                                                      .
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                                                                                                                                                                                        • Lace
                                                                                                                                                                                          Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Mar 2004
                                                                                                                                                                                          • 16116
                                                                                                                                                                                          #47
                                                                                                                                                                                          Originally posted by CybermedAndy
                                                                                                                                                                                          Yep.. kills me we can't access the site here in Canada
                                                                                                                                                                                          Haha..Canada SUCKS!

                                                                                                                                                                                          btw - proxy
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                                                                                                                                                                                            • Angry Jew Cat - Banned for Life
                                                                                                                                                                                              (felis madjewicus)
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Jul 2006
                                                                                                                                                                                              • 20368
                                                                                                                                                                                              #48
                                                                                                                                                                                              as long as google is backing youtube it's going nowhere....

                                                                                                                                                                                                Comment

                                                                                                                                                                                                • Drake
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Hello world!
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Mar 2003
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • 12508
                                                                                                                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                                                                                                                  They'll be fine in the short term. Long term is anybody's guess.

                                                                                                                                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                                                                                                                                    • D Ghost
                                                                                                                                                                                                      null
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • May 2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • 9820
                                                                                                                                                                                                      #50
                                                                                                                                                                                                      I think thats bullshit regarding the user-generated content, there is plenty of user-generated content that is monetizable and that drive masses of traffic who view and click on ads... for instance http://www.youtube.com/fred - this kid has 1,046,991 subscribers by himself and growing by the minute

                                                                                                                                                                                                        Comment

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