My only suggestion is to get the FBI to do 2257 inspections on free site owners, which also seems futile in the long run.
WG

bump for a great biz thread....

I am enormously entertained by the number of people on this board who refer to the death of affiliates in the same breath as the enormous scammy PPS payouts.

There was a huge wave of bad credit card billing that was just going away when I entered the business in 2002. Now, it's back. It will soon be going away again. And the get-rich-quick artists who chased those $100+ payouts will, indeed, go the way of the dinosaurs, if they don't change their methods.

But the basic model of paying affiliates a share of revenue for referred customers? I don't think that will go away until people stop buying porn over the web -- which could indeed happen, but probably not in 2009 or even 2010.

I do sometimes hear from program owners who think they don't need affiliates or our traffic. OK fine. But, for every one of those, I hear from dozens who want me to join their affiliate program. And as for cutting out the middleman? My standard polite decline to join a program is to offer some ad space for sale; and the response I usually get is like they are the vampire and I'm the garlic. They don't WANT to cut out the middleman and keep all the profit; what they want is to shuffle all the risk off onto their affiliates, so they don't need to worry about ROI.

Until they start offering to buy adspace instead of soliciting me to join their programs, I don't see "the death of the affiliates" as a big worry.

People should remember that there are plenty of programs out there able to pay $40+ per join without using shady billing tactics as well :2 cents:

By making it internationally illegal to distribute hardcore pornography on the internet, without the surfer PROVING they are 18 years old....with a credit card. :2 cents:

Many programs that understand the value of establishing a strong brand identity have learned that affiliates spread there brand awareness faster and cheaper than they could alone. But for the future... I really think bad conversions over the coming year will thin the herd of affiliates.

I can see why people would think that the current CPA model that programs and affiliates have would change, but it won't eliminate affiliates. I think people try and turn the word affiliate into something it is not.

Affiliates are publishers, plain and simple. They have traffic and programs are paying for it. The current setup uses a CPA mode. In other industries we see CPC or CPM models for purchasing advertising. All programs are doing is purchasing advertising from a publisher because it makes them money.

Programs will never stop buying advertising. Sure they might create their own, but they will always be willing to buy advertising if the price is right. I think we'll see a shift away from the CPA model that is currently dominating the adult industry. I think we'll see more monthly ad buys or CPM based advertising.

I guess what I'm saying is that as long as someone has quality traffic that can make money, someone will buy it. As long as an affiliate/publisher/whatever you want to call them can obtain that traffic, they will be around.

I can't ever imagine a whale or bunch of them without a place to send their signups.

If you are a whale or know of one who is or ever has this problem, please send them to me. I've been saving whales since days of underoos.



http://www.unknownwriter.com/pictures/Whale.jpg

Not got time to read it all but have one comment to make.

If your business model is to fill a small site with "exclusive" content that's the same as every other exclusive site in it's niche and style. Then spend a fortune driving traffic to it. Today you are very likely to fail or if doing it slowing down. Simply because the members who want to buy this type of content are spoiled for choice and can get it for free.

If you have a site with unique content then you have a chance of converting those who want it and keeping them. The problem is producing unique, quality porn is not easy and it costs more. But when produced the devotees will come looking for it. Or one Tube video will make the guys who like this type of content come over to see if you have more.

The the need for affiliates is reduced.

There are other approaches which I'm sure have been mentioned.

The deciding factor will be the costs of the traffic and the return on that traffic costs. Driving people to the door is not the full solution.

that's totally unfeasible.

Right, good fucking luck with that...

Well, that idea is nice, and I think everybody on GFY would agree that it would be better for our biz if we'd limit free porn somehow. But the Problem is that there's no way to enforce that wishful thinking....

Dinosaurs live on a tropical Island and spend their scammed money on hookers? :pimp

http://blog.columbusalive.com/Sensory/geico_l.jpg

uh.........what?

Quoted for truth.

They don't want to have to pay someone a salary to worry about the ROI. Or they can't afford to.

Most of the current program owners started as affiliates. If things change then I would see a lot more programs starting again. And the older established programs will have a new round of competitors to deal with.

This link isn't workin' here... :(

This made me LOL in an agreeing sort of way. Just yesterday my girlfriend, frustrated with one of the programs we deal with, said to me "Honey, why don't we just move to San Francisco and hire some cute young models and make our own porn?"

We probably won't do it, not this year anyway. But it's crystal clear to me why successful affiliates evolve in that direction.

How about this then.

The US passes a law that decrees if you have pictures or videos on your site that are illegal for an 18 year old to view they will block the site.

It won't need to be 100% because the threat of losing the US market will force most people to conform. It does not even need a program to enforce it, just a few guys sitting by a computer and Googling.

Will it work? Who will risk getting their site banned from the US market?

Will they pass it? Not in a thousand years.

Will it benefit the industry? Who knows.

Is it morally right that a 14 year old can't walk into a porn shop on Hollywood Blvd and can surf the Net and get all the porn he wants, or does not want?

Hasn't it been going the opposite direction though? It seemed like we went through a stage over the past few years with new programs popping up everyday. NATS and CCBill made it real easy for anyone with a couple grand to start a program. Now many of those programs have been selling to bigger ones. I mean hahaha bought about 15 over the past year and there have been a lot of other smaller ones that have sold or just folded up.

a good post paul :thumbsup except will they pass it ? not in 1000 yrs never say never. It wouldnt take much for a rally like that to start.

giggity giggity giiggggtiy gooooooooooo

thanks for the link...

Only because larger affiliates have been doing ok. If the trend moves towards eliminating affiliates,I see larger site owners getting their own programs going. There aren't a lot of options other than closing up shop. And I can't see that happening. Any of the large site owners could easily finance their own programs if they wanted to. I think it will continue to be harder for the small guy or startups to make it.

i emailed you last week about buying some traffic

I did say they would not pass it in a thousand years. But it would not be that hard to do. I suspect in the future more people who are more Internet savvy will be looking at ways to control it. You can run your site as your country allows, just don't expect to run it to our citizens will be what some politicians look into.

As for affiliates and their long term participation in the business. This is my personal opinion of course.

They will stay but there will be people looking hard at what works and what's profitable in the next couple of years. 2009 and 2010 will be tough for all businesses and buyers will be more canny and less likely to get out their cards for another site offering the same as Tubes. So the "traffic" solution will slow down. People will be looking harder at how to convert more and keep them longer before they look at how to get more to the site.

Yes there will still be the guys who are convinced that it's about traffic, but they will simply spend themselves out of the business. Tubes are great at getting traffic, but what's the profit margin on them? Today they make a profit, tomorrow they might find the free surfers and people who have bought dating and cam site joins can't be supported by those who do spend money.

The guy who spends his money in any business is the king. The customer is always right. Be ready to realise replacing him with 100 more will not work as well as it did.

Let's face it, it has not worked better and better every year has it? Who has experienced better join ratios as his traffic went up? It has never been more important than it is today to convert more of the traffic we already have.