AP poll: Obama and McCain running nearly even - GoFuckYourself.com

Mutt · 10-22-2008, 10:28 PM

AP poll: Candidates running nearly even

Neck-and-neck results are a departure from many recent national polls

WASHINGTON - The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as Republican-leaning voters drifted home to their party.

Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the United States through its sudden economic crisis.

The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent less than two weeks before the Nov. 4 election.

The new AP-GfK head-to-head result is a departure from some, but not all, recent national polls.

Differing survey results
Obama and McCain were essentially tied among likely voters in the latest George Washington University Battleground Poll, conducted by Republican strategist Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. In other surveys focusing on likely voters, a Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Obama up by 9 percentage points, while a poll by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center had Obama leading by 14. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, among the broader category of people registered to vote, found Obama ahead by 10 points.

Polls are snapshots of highly fluid campaigns. In this case, there is a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; that means Obama could be ahead by as many as 8 points or down by as many as 6. There are many reasons why polls differ, including methods of estimating likely voters and the wording of questions.

Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin political science professor and polling authority, said variation between polls occurs, in part, because pollsters interview random samples of people.

"If they all agree, somebody would be doing something terribly wrong," he said of polls. But he also said that surveys generally fall within a few points of each other, adding, "When you get much beyond that, there's something to explain."

The AP-GfK survey included interviews with a large sample of adults including 800 deemed likely to vote. Among all 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among registered voters.
Video

What the NBC/WSJ poll means
Oct. 22: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray offers his first read on the latest NBC/WSJ poll, Obama?s growing lead over McCain, independents making a move and who?s offering hope and optimism for the future.
MSNBC

A significant number of the interviews were conducted by dialing a randomly selected sample of cell phone numbers, and thus this poll had a chance to reach voters who were excluded from some other polls.

It was taken over five days from Thursday through Monday, starting the night after the candidates' final debate and ending the day after former Secretary of State Colin Powell broke with the Republican Party to endorse Obama.

A post-debates bump for McCain?
McCain's strong showing is partly attributable to his strong debate performance; Thursday was his best night of the survey. Obama's best night was Sunday, hours after the Powell announcement, and the full impact of that endorsement may not have been captured in any surveys yet. Future polling could show whether either of those was merely a support "bounce" or something more lasting.

During their final debate, a feisty McCain repeatedly forced Obama to defend his record, comments and associations. He also used the story of a voter whom the Democrat had met in Ohio, "Joe the plumber," to argue that Obama's tax plan would be bad for working class voters.

........... continue here http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27324419/?GT1=43001

ThunderBalls · 10-22-2008, 11:12 PM

FOX News Poll: Obama Leads McCain, 49% to 40%

Barack Obama has gained a nine point lead over his opponent John McCain, according to a FOX News poll released Wednesday.

Less than two weeks before Election Day, Barack Obama leads John McCain 49 percent to 40 percent among likely voters, according to a FOX News poll released Wednesday.

Obama's advantage comes mainly from independents, and from the fact that more voters identify themselves as Democrats these days and almost all of them back their party's nominee.

Eighty-eight percent of Democrats support Obama, and 83 percent of Republicans back McCain. Independents break 44 percent to 35 percent in Obama's favor.

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10...-leads-mccain/

ThunderBalls · 10-22-2008, 11:14 PM

Obama Leads McCain 54-43 in ABC News/Washington Post Poll

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Po...6087668&page=1

SoloGirlsContent · 10-22-2008, 11:37 PM

New flawed AP poll claims McCain and Obama are tied. Will AP's pollster take Nate Silver's challenge?

http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/n...ccain-and.html

SoloGirlsContent · 10-22-2008, 11:39 PM

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/polling/index.html

10-22-2008, 10:28 PM	#1
Mutt Too lazy to set a custom title Industry Role: Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 34,431	AP poll: Obama and McCain running nearly even AP poll: Candidates running nearly even Neck-and-neck results are a departure from many recent national polls WASHINGTON - The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch. The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as Republican-leaning voters drifted home to their party. Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the United States through its sudden economic crisis. The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent less than two weeks before the Nov. 4 election. The new AP-GfK head-to-head result is a departure from some, but not all, recent national polls. Differing survey results Obama and McCain were essentially tied among likely voters in the latest George Washington University Battleground Poll, conducted by Republican strategist Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. In other surveys focusing on likely voters, a Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Obama up by 9 percentage points, while a poll by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center had Obama leading by 14. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, among the broader category of people registered to vote, found Obama ahead by 10 points. Polls are snapshots of highly fluid campaigns. In this case, there is a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; that means Obama could be ahead by as many as 8 points or down by as many as 6. There are many reasons why polls differ, including methods of estimating likely voters and the wording of questions. Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin political science professor and polling authority, said variation between polls occurs, in part, because pollsters interview random samples of people. "If they all agree, somebody would be doing something terribly wrong," he said of polls. But he also said that surveys generally fall within a few points of each other, adding, "When you get much beyond that, there's something to explain." The AP-GfK survey included interviews with a large sample of adults including 800 deemed likely to vote. Among all 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among registered voters. Video What the NBC/WSJ poll means Oct. 22: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray offers his first read on the latest NBC/WSJ poll, Obama?s growing lead over McCain, independents making a move and who?s offering hope and optimism for the future. MSNBC A significant number of the interviews were conducted by dialing a randomly selected sample of cell phone numbers, and thus this poll had a chance to reach voters who were excluded from some other polls. It was taken over five days from Thursday through Monday, starting the night after the candidates' final debate and ending the day after former Secretary of State Colin Powell broke with the Republican Party to endorse Obama. A post-debates bump for McCain? McCain's strong showing is partly attributable to his strong debate performance; Thursday was his best night of the survey. Obama's best night was Sunday, hours after the Powell announcement, and the full impact of that endorsement may not have been captured in any surveys yet. Future polling could show whether either of those was merely a support "bounce" or something more lasting. During their final debate, a feisty McCain repeatedly forced Obama to defend his record, comments and associations. He also used the story of a voter whom the Democrat had met in Ohio, "Joe the plumber," to argue that Obama's tax plan would be bad for working class voters. ........... continue here http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27324419/?GT1=43001 __________________ I moved my sites to Vacares Hosting. I've saved money, my hair is thicker, lost some weight too! Thanks Sly!

10-22-2008, 11:12 PM	#2
ThunderBalls So Fucking Banned Industry Role: Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Mesosphere Posts: 2,926	FOX News Poll: Obama Leads McCain, 49% to 40% Barack Obama has gained a nine point lead over his opponent John McCain, according to a FOX News poll released Wednesday. Less than two weeks before Election Day, Barack Obama leads John McCain 49 percent to 40 percent among likely voters, according to a FOX News poll released Wednesday. Obama's advantage comes mainly from independents, and from the fact that more voters identify themselves as Democrats these days and almost all of them back their party's nominee. Eighty-eight percent of Democrats support Obama, and 83 percent of Republicans back McCain. Independents break 44 percent to 35 percent in Obama's favor. http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10...-leads-mccain/

10-22-2008, 11:14 PM	#3
ThunderBalls So Fucking Banned Industry Role: Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Mesosphere Posts: 2,926	Obama Leads McCain 54-43 in ABC News/Washington Post Poll http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Po...6087668&page=1

10-22-2008, 11:37 PM	#4
SoloGirlsContent So Fucking Banned Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Mother fuckin Earth Posts: 5,013	New flawed AP poll claims McCain and Obama are tied. Will AP's pollster take Nate Silver's challenge? http://www.americablog.com/2008/10/n...ccain-and.html

10-22-2008, 11:39 PM	#5
SoloGirlsContent So Fucking Banned Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Mother fuckin Earth Posts: 5,013	http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/polling/index.html