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ADL Colin

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#1

So here is why AIG had to be saved

09-17-2008, 02:57 AM

Fpr those who don't know about these financial instruments ...

AIG is party to an untold number of credit default swaps. Basically one party pays to the other in the event of a default. They are considered to be one of the biggest players in this market which is $62 trillion. That is on the scale of the entire world GDP.

It is known that AIG has hundreds of billions in contracts with European banks alone.

If AIG should go out of business then the value of all these swaps becomes valueless. Banks all over the world will be taking huge write-offs. Unknown how many would go out of business. Since swaps are private agreements and not regulated it is really not known what the repercussions would be who is holding what etc. It is just too dangerous of a situation for the world economy.

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#2

09-17-2008, 03:08 AM

BBC has just reported that HBOS is in merger talks with Llyods TSB ..things are getting interesting.
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#3

09-17-2008, 03:51 AM

AIG owns the company that gives me Internet, if they go belly up I'll fuck them up!
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#4

09-17-2008, 04:06 AM

regulation is a bad thing.... why?

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#5

09-17-2008, 04:09 AM

what i like is how today you can read about how investors all around the world are benefiting from a US tax-payer funded bailout.

If AIG does so much in Europe and other countries, why not get those countries to bail them out?

Analysts say the bailout of the giant insurance firm American International Group (AIG) has saved many Australian investors from making losses.

The US Federal Reserve has been forced to provide a $106 billion publicly-funded loan to AIG after talks to try and co-ordinate a privately funded bail out failed.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2...ction=business

106 billion could educate this country sooooo much that we would not fall for shit like this... maybe thats why they take the money and give it to these companies who make decades of bad choices and investments.

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#6

09-17-2008, 04:10 AM

Thanks Reagan/Bush/McCain for all this unregulated bullshit.

CEOs cash out to short term profits then walk away as the world burns, to watch from their gated communities, only to come out when the dust settles so they can fuck us again.

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#7

09-17-2008, 04:19 AM

Originally posted by ADL Colin

Fpr those who don't know about these financial instruments ...

AIG is party to an untold number of credit default swaps. Basically one party pays to the other in the event of a default. They are considered to be one of the biggest players in this market which is $62 trillion. That is on the scale of the entire world GDP.

It is known that AIG has hundreds of billions in contracts with European banks alone.

If AIG should go out of business then the value of all these swaps becomes valueless. Banks all over the world will be taking huge write-offs. Unknown how many would go out of business. Since swaps are private agreements and not regulated it is really not known what the repercussions would be who is holding what etc. It is just too dangerous of a situation for the world economy.

Thanks but I still don't fully understand.

.
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#8

09-17-2008, 04:22 AM

Originally posted by Sarah_MaxCash

BBC has just reported that HBOS is in merger talks with Llyods TSB ..things are getting interesting.

That's annoying, the UK doesn't need amalgamation....
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#9

09-17-2008, 04:33 AM

whats worrisome is that this almost seems like a well played out script..

you now have companies swallowing other companies with almost no govt oversight..

when this is all over, you are going to have a few monsters that control the entire financial industry..

competition will be so limited, the large financial institutions will be able to do whatever they want..

remember the oil hearings in congress regarding manipulation?

all the big oil ceo's acted out a well rehearsed performance..

but, i do agree, aig could not fail.. the fallout would have been catastrophic...
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#10

09-17-2008, 04:36 AM

Originally posted by Sethseekstruth

Thanks Reagan/Bush/McCain for all this unregulated bullshit.

CEOs cash out to short term profits then walk away as the world burns, to watch from their gated communities, only to come out when the dust settles so they can fuck us again.

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#11

09-17-2008, 04:52 AM

Originally posted by marketsmart

whats worrisome is that this almost seems like a well played out script..

It is a script and very predictable.
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#12

09-17-2008, 08:55 AM

hmm what concerns me is that no private investors offered a take over of AIG, meaning the private sector did not see an inkling of opportunity or value in AIG.
in other words all their holdings are possible worthless, worse yet would be if even more loans or investments insured by them default...
But to let them go under would undermine the world economy as AIG essentially holds the role of the FDIC for private sector investment banks and if AIG are no longer, it is a free fall...

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#13

09-17-2008, 09:50 AM

Originally posted by ADL Colin

Fpr those who don't know about these financial instruments ...

AIG is party to an untold number of credit default swaps. Basically one party pays to the other in the event of a default. They are considered to be one of the biggest players in this market which is $62 trillion. That is on the scale of the entire world GDP.

It is known that AIG has hundreds of billions in contracts with European banks alone.

If AIG should go out of business then the value of all these swaps becomes valueless. Banks all over the world will be taking huge write-offs. Unknown how many would go out of business. Since swaps are private agreements and not regulated it is really not known what the repercussions would be who is holding what etc. It is just too dangerous of a situation for the world economy.

You take bad loans, you get burnt. You work with bad companies, you get burnt. That's how business works. A bailout gives them an untold advantage over other companies and essentially makes the taxpayers pay for their risks.

Yes it would have caused huge economic problems. But that's what happens when you are stupid. Someone has to learn sometime, right?
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ADL Colin

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#14

09-17-2008, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by JP-pornshooter

hmm what concerns me is that no private investors offered a take over of AIG, meaning the private sector did not see an inkling of opportunity or value in AIG.
in other words all their holdings are possible worthless, worse yet would be if even more loans or investments insured by them default...
But to let them go under would undermine the world economy as AIG essentially holds the role of the FDIC for private sector investment banks and if AIG are no longer, it is a free fall...

AIG has all kinds of great assets. The problem though is that the downside is just completely unknowable. As one analyst said about this situation in particular; you can look at all the financial statements in the world and you are still not going to understand the risks in this company. More than $1 trillion in assets all over the world.

Here's just one example of the complexity of the situation:

A credit default swap has a winner and a loser. Two parties. One pays the other. So if AIG has to payout $180 billion (estimated true value of all swaps) on losing default swaps then someone else is making that profit. The interesting thing is what happens if AIG files for bankruptcy. Then the party that would have received the payment from AIG will no longer receive it. So say some company (Company B) wanted to insure themselves against a credit event. Company B enters into a contract with AIG. Say AIG files for bankruptcy tomorrow. Then say next week that credit event happens and Company B is suddenly at risk. Well if AIG had been in business they would have paid the insurance (credit default swap) to Company B and Company B would have survived. Instead, since AIG is out of business and can't pay, Company B goes out of business too. Now company B going out of business might have some sort of relationship with Company C that causes THEM to be at risk.

Something like this could happen with up to about $180 billion in credit default swaps. This same event playing over and over dozens of times. Owners of swaps might be banks, credit unions, government pension plans, private pensions plans, insurance companies and so on. All of that at risk because AIG is holding all these derivatives. Millions of lives might be affected.

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#15

09-17-2008, 10:27 AM

to most people when they hear aig, the response would be "aren't they that insurance company?" yes they are, but they are much more...if they failed literally every hedge would go out of business, the results would be way too much for the system to handle in visual terms it would be like buildings getting blown up on a global scale. Our fed had to bail them out with no option, it is justified but still sucks but considering the options there are is no choice. aig once they recover can and will pay it back within a few years...if they recover (which is likely). it is however unfortunate that they will be another government owned entity.

aig isn't a bad company, they responded to the market back then, it was just the flow of business. no one is innocent in this mess but if you were not in it you would not understand the level of temptation that was there for everyone. we are talking on a massive scale and through the whole chain...unlike the last bubbles this was down to the consumer level, if you did not participate you were done. it's easy to judge a company for the actions of all...but really how would you have responded? by taking the high road?

regulations should have been in place long ago, but no one cared, really. it ruined it for those who were doing good business. many of these companies tried to reverse the effect but it was just simply too late. it is the american boom/bubble repeated over and over again....dotcom, telecom, mortgage/real estate - no accountability for actions so let's find loopholes and abuse the system, then one day say "oh shit were going to be fucked", system breaks then deal with it later and move onto next system that can be exploited - sad shit!

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ADL Colin

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#16

09-17-2008, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by pocketkangaroo

You take bad loans, you get burnt. You work with bad companies, you get burnt. That's how business works. A bailout gives them an untold advantage over other companies and essentially makes the taxpayers pay for their risks.

Yes it would have caused huge economic problems. But that's what happens when you are stupid. Someone has to learn sometime, right?

And if you bank with banks that go out of business you get burnt? Why not let people just lose their savings if they bank with a weak bank that goes out of business? Gotta learn sometimes? Why not let people who bank with IndyMac just lose their life savings?

In general principle I do agree with you. I hate taxpayer bailouts, corporate welfare or whatever else you want to call it. I do think that FDIC insurance is a good idea. Should it be $50k? $100k? $200k? What is reasonable? By the same token if the entire financial system is going to collapse then I'd rather pay increased taxes and save the institutions at risk rather than go into a total meltdown and people start losing parts of their life savings, having pension funds go belly up, and so on. That would be the greater evil.

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#17

09-17-2008, 11:13 AM

Originally posted by ADL Colin

And if you bank with banks that go out of business you get burnt? Why not let people just lose their savings if they bank with a weak bank that goes out of business? Gotta learn sometimes? Why not let people who bank with IndyMac just lose their life savings?

In general principle I do agree with you. I hate taxpayer bailouts, corporate welfare or whatever else you want to call it. I do think that FDIC insurance is a good idea. Should it be $50k? $100k? $200k? What is reasonable? By the same token if the entire financial system is going to collapse then I'd rather pay increased taxes and save the institutions at risk rather than go into a total meltdown and people start losing parts of their life savings, having pension funds go belly up, and so on. That would be the greater evil.

Yep. In most cases a company going out of business pretty much (potentially) just hurts that company, it's employees and anyone it was doing business with. With a company like AIG or even Freddy Mac if they go out of business there are untold numbers of people who would be hurt who never had anything to do with them.
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#18

09-17-2008, 11:18 AM

I keep seing "and the CEO's cash in bigtime" in all these threads.
They DESERVE that, does any of you guys know how hard they work? It's not like they just sit back and smoke cigars.... It must take a HUGE effort to run companies in that size into the ground

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#19

09-17-2008, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by marketsmart

whats worrisome is that this almost seems like a well played out script..

you now have companies swallowing other companies with almost no govt oversight..

when this is all over, you are going to have a few monsters that control the entire financial industry..

competition will be so limited, the large financial institutions will be able to do whatever they want..

remember the oil hearings in congress regarding manipulation?

all the big oil ceo's acted out a well rehearsed performance..

but, i do agree, aig could not fail.. the fallout would have been catastrophic...

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#20

09-17-2008, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by ADL Colin

And if you bank with banks that go out of business you get burnt? Why not let people just lose their savings if they bank with a weak bank that goes out of business? Gotta learn sometimes? Why not let people who bank with IndyMac just lose their life savings?

In general principle I do agree with you. I hate taxpayer bailouts, corporate welfare or whatever else you want to call it. I do think that FDIC insurance is a good idea. Should it be $50k? $100k? $200k? What is reasonable? By the same token if the entire financial system is going to collapse then I'd rather pay increased taxes and save the institutions at risk rather than go into a total meltdown and people start losing parts of their life savings, having pension funds go belly up, and so on. That would be the greater evil.

Unfortunately, when you make bad investments, you lose money. This shouldn't be any different for "the average Joe". If anything, this would teach people to research their banks and financial advisors more carefully before handing over their money.

This gumdrop and fairy tale approach to business is fucking those over who played it smart.
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09-17-2008, 12:32 PM

Originally posted by pocketkangaroo

Unfortunately, when you make bad investments, you lose money. This shouldn't be any different for "the average Joe". If anything, this would teach people to research their banks and financial advisors more carefully before handing over their money.

This gumdrop and fairy tale approach to business is fucking those over who played it smart.

FDIC insurance changes the behavior of the depositors. It helps prevent bankruns. You remove that and every little rumor will put a bank under. Hell, I bet everyone would be taking their money out of Washington mutual and Wachovia right now if it weren't for FDIC insurance.

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#22

09-17-2008, 12:33 PM

This is all over gov't pensions that are heavily vested in those swaps

You read it here first!

Why do you think McCain suddenly shifted to helping AIG? Because they told him about the fact that every FBI, CIA, Military, etc pensioner is about to lose their lives.
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#23

09-17-2008, 12:40 PM

Originally posted by pocketkangaroo

Unfortunately, when you make bad investments, you lose money. This shouldn't be any different for "the average Joe". If anything, this would teach people to research their banks and financial advisors more carefully before handing over their money.

This gumdrop and fairy tale approach to business is fucking those over who played it smart.

Here is the difference. Say I decide to open a grocery store in a town that already has 2 other grocery stores. I decide that to compete with them I will have my prices 5% lower and I will offer free charge accounts to anyone that wants them. It becomes very popular. I get a lot of business and then I realize that there are 1000's of people who charged a lot of money worth of groceries and they don't pay. I try to collect, but they refuse and now I am in trouble. I start taking legal action, but it is too late and my business goes under. The only people hurt here are me and any business partners I have as well as anyone I may owe money to and my employees who will have to find another job.

Now say a company like AIG goes out of business. Nobody is arguing that they brought most of their troubles on themselves, but if they fail it could hurt a lot of innocent people. So AIG goes out of business and as a result of it your bank goes out of business. They are insured through FDIC, but your accounts get frozen for a while as the process gets worked out and you now get behind on your bills. You just got shafted and you had nothing to do with AIG. Or AIG goes under and the several money market and hedge funds as well as some investment banks go out of business. Those companies managed the 401K retirements for 1000's of people who may now lose all of that due to this collapse. Again, these people had nothing to do with AIG, all hey are guilty of is working hard and putting money into their 401K and they are now screwed. So in the end, if AIG fails, many people will pay. The question is which bill do you want to pay? Would you rather pay a little more in taxes over a longer period of time and help AIG stay afloat and build itself back up, or would you rather pay the bill where you let it collapse and just hope any retirement/investment/savings that you have is not effected?
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#24

09-17-2008, 12:43 PM

Originally posted by Sethseekstruth

Thanks Reagan/Bush/McCain for all this unregulated bullshit.

CEOs cash out to short term profits then walk away as the world burns, to watch from their gated communities, only to come out when the dust settles so they can fuck us again.

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#25

09-17-2008, 12:45 PM

Originally posted by V_RocKs

gov't pensions

You read it here first!

You are right! but it's about a lot more. The US government just re-assured the world that it is safe to invest in the USA.

China is currently selling Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae bonds, and is looking at limiting it's exposure in the United States. I'm sure most of the world banks are doing same.

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#26

09-17-2008, 12:51 PM

Originally posted by kane

all they are guilty of is working hard and putting money into their 401K and they are now screwed.

and they lose confidence in the stock market/401K investments, IRA, ROTH etc... The little guys stops investing in the market.

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#27

09-17-2008, 12:57 PM

Originally posted by SCORE-Cash

and they lose confidence in the stock market/401K investments, IRA, ROTH etc... The little guys stops investing in the market.

Yep. Many recessions are caused simply by people losing confidence in the economy so they stop spending money and stop investing money. The less money the average Joe spends/invests in his 401K, IRA etc and just spends in general buying TVs and a cars and things like that the more damage it does.
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#28

09-17-2008, 01:00 PM

Credit default swaps as I understand them are banks betting on companies failing, and it's basically unregulated. Only the huge players "in the know" have any idea what's going on with them, there's no other way to have any idea what their value is. The average investor has 0 chance of understanding them.
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#29

09-17-2008, 05:18 PM

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpag...gewanted=print

look at the date.

September 11, 2003
New Agency Proposed to Oversee Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae

(someone posted this on another article, seems they were rehearsing this take over, looong ago.

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#30

09-17-2008, 05:31 PM

Originally posted by ADL Colin

FDIC insurance changes the behavior of the depositors. It helps prevent bankruns. You remove that and every little rumor will put a bank under. Hell, I bet everyone would be taking their money out of Washington mutual and Wachovia right now if it weren't for FDIC insurance.

Bank runs still happen on bad banks. Take Washington Mutual for example. FDIC is still small potatoes to the massive bailouts we've had.
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#31

09-17-2008, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by kane

Here is the difference. Say I decide to open a grocery store in a town that already has 2 other grocery stores. I decide that to compete with them I will have my prices 5% lower and I will offer free charge accounts to anyone that wants them. It becomes very popular. I get a lot of business and then I realize that there are 1000's of people who charged a lot of money worth of groceries and they don't pay. I try to collect, but they refuse and now I am in trouble. I start taking legal action, but it is too late and my business goes under. The only people hurt here are me and any business partners I have as well as anyone I may owe money to and my employees who will have to find another job.

Now say a company like AIG goes out of business. Nobody is arguing that they brought most of their troubles on themselves, but if they fail it could hurt a lot of innocent people. So AIG goes out of business and as a result of it your bank goes out of business. They are insured through FDIC, but your accounts get frozen for a while as the process gets worked out and you now get behind on your bills. You just got shafted and you had nothing to do with AIG. Or AIG goes under and the several money market and hedge funds as well as some investment banks go out of business. Those companies managed the 401K retirements for 1000's of people who may now lose all of that due to this collapse. Again, these people had nothing to do with AIG, all hey are guilty of is working hard and putting money into their 401K and they are now screwed. So in the end, if AIG fails, many people will pay. The question is which bill do you want to pay? Would you rather pay a little more in taxes over a longer period of time and help AIG stay afloat and build itself back up, or would you rather pay the bill where you let it collapse and just hope any retirement/investment/savings that you have is not effected?

So is your suggestion to bail out every single company thats failure would hurt innocent people? I mean Flint, Michigan has lost their car plants over the years and destroyed a lot of innocent businesses.

This stuff happens all the time. It shouldn't be the government's job to determine what businesses are worth of staying in business and which ones aren't. It gives a HUGE advantage to these businesses.
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#32

09-17-2008, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by pocketkangaroo

So is your suggestion to bail out every single company thats failure would hurt innocent people? I mean Flint, Michigan has lost their car plants over the years and destroyed a lot of innocent businesses.

This stuff happens all the time. It shouldn't be the government's job to determine what businesses are worth of staying in business and which ones aren't. It gives a HUGE advantage to these businesses.

I would say in 99.9% of the cases no, the government shouldn't step in. I understand cases where large companies go out of business and it kills the town that grew up around it are ugly for that town and maybe even that state, but in the case of AIG it could bring on such a recession that it could cause the entire country to be greatly harmed. We aren't talking about one city. We are talking about the entire nation being put at risk. In cases like that I think it is fair for the government to step in, but I also think they need to be ready and willing to get back out when the wrongs have been righted and there are adequate measures taken to help prevent it from happening again.
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#33

09-17-2008, 06:06 PM

Originally posted by marketsmart

whats worrisome is that this almost seems like a well played out script..

you now have companies swallowing other companies with almost no govt oversight..

when this is all over, you are going to have a few monsters that control the entire financial industry..

competition will be so limited, the large financial institutions will be able to do whatever they want..

remember the oil hearings in congress regarding manipulation?

all the big oil ceo's acted out a well rehearsed performance..

but, i do agree, aig could not fail.. the fallout would have been catastrophic...

So something being bad means it can't happen? I think things are going to get much worse. The great depression all over again.

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#34

09-17-2008, 06:06 PM

Ron Paul on fox today talking about AIG bailout

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