The Biz in 10 Years

[Andy-Vienna]

Anyone brave (or dumb? *gg*) enough:

How will the online sex biz will look in 10 years?

More regulations? No Free Porn? Only Free Porn? 3D-Worlds where you can fuck the actress who won the oscar in a supporting role? USB-Gadgets?

Would be cool to hear your insights ...

kind regards from Vienna

(and no, I don't want to hear about your top-secret-business-plans ;-))

[I'm Looking For A...]

in 10 years, theres no money to be made in porn

[st0ned]

I bet the government will manage to fuck up adult in some way of form over the next 10 years. They manage to fuck everything else.

[Andy-Vienna]

Originally Posted by I'm Looking For A...

in 10 years, theres no money to be made in porn

And the conclusion would be? No Companies anymore? Only 1 googlesque kind of superporn-imperium (youporn ? --- he said youporn! stone him to death! ;-)) Myspace-Amateur-Porn?

[Big Red Machine]

The more things change the more they stay the same....I think fresh content will always sell

[brandonstills]

Consolidation. The porn industry will begin to resemble the rest of the internet industry from a business perspective.

[emjay]

hahaha will have all the traffic

[CHMOD]

Payment methods won't be the same.

Small players will disapear.

There won't be much membership sales anymore as stupid tube sites owner
are killing the biz by offering 5-20 minutes videos for free.

If surfers comes on free videos they can find on tube sites, they don't
have to buy membership anymore.

Not hard to understand. Some people in this industry are so stupid.

[AntDema]

Ten years is to far away to gauge imo. To many things can change so many factors. Wars, shitty economies, gov regulations and many others.

I think taken a look at the next 3 years is a better approach.

3 Years -

Tubes will have replaced most of the mgps/tgps out there. They will by then be tweaked to earn good net revenue from promoting themselves (dvd archives, "free" life time access etc) or promoting programs that have the best products. Most are making good profits as we speak, but they will be even more tweaked as time goes on.

The industry's over all sales will be down from where they are at today. Due to the US still being in a bad spot. This could actually go either way, but by the looks of the way things are now I don't see the US doing good for another 5 years and at that time people will start spending again, more joins will flow in as a result.

Most of these 10-50 join a day programs will have been purchased by bigger fish. The industry will mainly be 10-15 companies and they will be doing all the joins (maybe even a smaller group of 5-10). Sure a pool of programs will be around doing 5-20 joins a day but with all the stress and work it will take to compete with the bigger, more solid companies will force them to sell. That or get into some thing else and watch their program die soon enough.

Small webmasters will still be able to earn cash but nothing like before. By 3 years time getting into adult and making million will take a lot of cash backing the project + a ton of experience, stamina, staff, and a solid webmaster base.

As far as the original question where do I see the biz in ten years- It will be here and always will be. Move with the times and you will make cash for sure - question is how much.. No one can say Lets wait and see.

Ant

[Spunky]

That's why you never have all your eggs in one basket

[DWB]

Originally Posted by st0ned

I bet the government will manage to fuck up adult in some way of form over the next 10 years. They manage to fuck everything else.

No, the INDUSTRY will fuck it up totally and it can all be blamed on us. You can't expect an industry ran by crooks, scammers and felons to go the distance. It never does in a legitimate manner, unless you are the government.

[Vick!]

Not sure what will happen, but whoever will have traffic will make money ..

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by AntDema

Ten years is to far away to gauge imo. To many things can change so many factors. Wars, shitty economies, gov regulations and many others.

I think taken a look at the next 3 years is a better approach.

Great post.

You are aware that someone with this Join Date: Nov 2007 and this Posts: 165 is not allowed to have this much common sense.

[tony286]

Originally Posted by DirtyWhiteBoy

No, the INDUSTRY will fuck it up totally and it can all be blamed on us. You can't expect an industry ran by crooks, scammers and felons to go the distance. It never does in a legitimate manner, unless you are the government.

wait dont forget someone will have the balls to say why are they picking on us? lol

[tony286]

I think gas goes to 7 bucks a gallon half the industry will be doing something else for a living.

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by DirtyWhiteBoy

No, the INDUSTRY will fuck it up totally and it can all be blamed on us. You can't expect an industry ran by crooks, scammers and felons to go the distance. It never does in a legitimate manner, unless you are the government.

And a great post from a veteran.

We have IN GENERAL fucked the surfer for the last 10 years. We have IN GENERAL ignored his needs so we could pay ourselves. We now are reaping the seeds we sowed.

This is what I think will happen in the future. Access to porn without proof you're 18 will become a thing of the past. Governments will start to look at what Germany does, this might be good for us who can survive.

The free stuff being exchanged, like Torrents, will be slowed down. The system cannot stand people constantly "sharing" stuff for free. Too much money is being lost today for it to be allowed to continue unabated. Will never stop, but will be slowed down.

Big programs will take over the supply of normal standard porn. People like Video Box will be the norm and sites allowing surfers to come in and grab what they want when they want and how they want will rise to the top. The surfer with money to spend is King today, tomorrow he will be an Emperor.

Small programs supplying something the big ones can't or wont supply will survive. Those supplying the same porn as 1000 other sites will be swallowed up by people like hahaha for a song or gone for nothing. hahaha will stop buying soon, so get in quick if you want to make something.

Paul Markham will still be around and people will still be telling him he's clueless.

[SomeCreep]

I can summarize the adult industry in the next 10 years with two words:

Free porn.

[wootpr0n]

All of the small pay sites will be out of business, and only the big ones with lots of content will remain.

And Tube sites can't last that long if they are stealing content from pay sites and then trying to sell memberships to pay sites. Soon those pay sites will be out of business, and the tube sites won't have any revenue.

As for the German idea of kids no longer being able to access porn without ID, they will still be able to get it off of torrents.

[blademaster16]

well i think in 10 years , you need to do something else for some soup

[AntDema]

Originally Posted by Paul Markham

Great post.

You are aware that someone with this Join Date: Nov 2007 and this Posts: 165 is not allowed to have this much common sense.

hehe

Though my join date is recent, I've been in the game for 7 years ;)

[cotsios]

they will lock our dicks

[Antonio]

Originally Posted by DirtyWhiteBoy

No, the INDUSTRY will fuck it up totally and it can all be blamed on us. You can't expect an industry ran by crooks, scammers and felons to go the distance. It never does in a legitimate manner, unless you are the government.

there are no MORE crooks, scammers and felons in adult than in ANY other industry!!!

it seems to me that most of the webmasters simply don't have any contacts with the real World, I'll sum it up for you - thousands of cops are on the take, politicians run the biggest scams on earth, businessmen birbe left and right so they can make more money, mechanics try their best to take your shirt off your back, shop owners buy stolen goods and sell them with 200-300% profit......

we are (just like 90% of the people out there) motivated by greed - so no, we are not angels, we are simply the same as the rest of the flock

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by AntDema

hehe

Though my join date is recent, I've been in the game for 7 years ;)

I use irony a lot in my posts.

[xmas13]

W.h.a.t.e.v.er. Until then, We'll be listening to Guetta.

David Guetta - Delirious.mp3

[Due]

Really tough to say about 10 years ahead.
Overall sales will be up, there is some emerging credit card countries that would be rather strong by that time, possible we would have fingerprint payments introduced by that time.
Would be sweet and easy to pay for individual movies this way rather then memberships.
SMS payments is also growing strong, possible it would have been replaced by similar payment methods from your mobile, a lot of content would be streamed from a mobile with build in projector or similar thing that give you the option to view movies in the air or the wall as 50" 3d animations.
In a couple of countries IP payments would be introduced as well, you will be charged based on the either time your IP access premium content or the bandwidth consumed by your ip. Such things is already in alpha stage and would most likely be workable in 1-2 years.

In less than 2 years revenues from europe will be at the same level as USA, likely in 5 years USA will be only 35% of your sales. That is for those that knnow how to divert their marketing, it would mean translating your sites into the biggest languages such as spanish, french, german, russian etc. That is languages where the native speakers usually have a lot of difficulties speaking english. Also you need the local billing options available such as bank, debit, sms/phone.
If you are not capable of that you will see a lot of domestic or euro companies picking up those sales instead. And guess what! It's already happenning
I could be wrong, but I think most part is correct, it is difficult to predict the technology available in the future, I will for sure still be here the next 10 years and will continue to adapt to the market. Those that try to adapt the market will not be here

[After Shock Media]

Giving the pace with technology I really would expect to see full on virtual sex. You should be able to feel the cam girl you are chatting with and she will feel you. Guess that would mean the live cam business would really be pushed ahead of the pack. Every experience would be unique.

Though some ass clown will also find a way to record such sessions and just allow you to feel what she did to someone else's virtual body, and give it away for traffic.

Just not sure if the technology would allow for gender crossing yet as that would need a major fucking leap in technology. So I would presume as long as people remain the same sex as they already are, with the proper suit or whatnot, they could feel what is going on with the other side.

Then of course this would bring a whole new level of niche crap into the market and would lead to even more laws as again some ass clown would think its funny to tranny trick someone and they get it up the ass without wanting it. Thus begins the first virtual rape case.

[sysk]

I think "real" services websites will be the only ones really making money. Cam sites, escorts services, social networks... in other words, anything that is not freely available on the web through tubes/torrents.