Semi-Retired-Dave

This should be interesting. Who wants to start their predictions?

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CuriousToyBoy

People will always want to watch porn. What will change is how, when and what they use to do it. Our challenges are to stay on top of that game. We have thus far in the evolution, and some will remain, but many will fall by the wayside.

The current environment with torrents and tubes (and the delayed filtering aspect of those now hitting "normal" P2P) and the seemingly mad grab for "growth by acquisition" is but a couple of the aspects of this evolution.

2c

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payd2purv

in 5 to 10 years we will be in the next major boom period.

Due to my generation which is roughly the baby boomers kids and slightly older and slightly younger starting to spend money with credit cards and on porn.

This age group is the largest in history.

I see a huge increase in porn purchasing in history ever from this generation of pornsumers...

Problem that could stop this is is this generation is smart.. and their is too much free content available..

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polish_aristocrat

I predict it will be getting worse and worse, meaning it will be harder and harder to make money, especially for the small single webmaster.

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Paul Markham

Porn producers with something worth selling will rise even more to the top than they have. Those who think the more mud you throw at the wall the more will stick will learn it does not.

The consumer will migrate to the better products, even more than he is doing today.

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Persius

Porn will become illegal..

Semi-Retired-Dave

Well said

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SweetT

Lets discuss an unpopular prediction.....

Lets just say that in 10 years most, if not all, content on the internet will be free. People will learn new revenue streams. Product placements, advertising, etc. If there is an affiliate model at all it will simply be based on the affiliate getting people to view the content so that they can view the advertising. Affiliates will be paid fractions of a cent to get people to download/view a video that contains some sort of advertising. Content providers will charge advertisers based on the download or viewing of the video including their product placement or commercial ad.

What are your thoughts on this?


--T

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GetSCORECash

This thread needs a major bump.

I agrea with you. and I think you have just posted a mouthfull.

What is the future of affiliates when most of the content of the MAJOR adult sites can easily be found for FREE on tubes, TGPS, MGPs, and torrents, etc...

We are seeing this at this moment, I don't think we need to look out five to ten years. We only need to look out another two years.

i don't have the solution, and I don't know if anyone who truly has it, is about to give it away to all of those that are looking for it.

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tony286

Porn isnt a mainstream sitcom.if that's the model chances are good then porn will be banned off the net. You see little glimpses now with the new uk law and the law in germany.I think you are going to start to see more and more of that. I think in ten years the net will be equal to the production values of television so probably alot less mom pop shit because the cost of production will become very expensive.

jay23

I agree with this. We just have to look at the Movie, TV, Music business to see what will happen in the Porn biz.

Mutt

That is a very likely scenario and a HORRIBLE one for us in porn. Advertisers have never wanted any association with porn and that's not going to change. Not quality advertisers anyway. Your scenario is already happening with the Tube sites supported by AFF and Cams - unfortunately it's all being done with stolen content. If they had to pay for even a fraction of that content they'd be broke in a month.

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VikingMan

This follows a concept I floated to one of the big players just a few weeks ago. The content would be very cheap but would compete with stuff you see on network and cable TV. You would have the same opportunity to get a piece of the muilti billion dollar mainstream advertising market as the networks and magazines do.

You guys sell sex by you do not have to sell porn. Mainstream models are usually a 100 times hotter anyways both in personatily and looks. My new assistant is a mainstream model and she is hotter than the porn girls showing up to do shoots. But it works because the porn models tend to want to fuck her.

I have shot for the absoute biggest porn companies and I know first hand the amount of money that gets tossed around on many of these shoots. For less money I could produce some amazing stuff that can pull in advertizing dollars from the same companies you see pouring money into TV commercials, billboards, etc.

If the person I gave the concept to does not do anything with it then some of the other guys reading this thread will be hearing about it very soon.

VikingMan

Anyone else having problems reading his posts? The avatar is just too damn sexy and keeps distracting me.

wanted

The industry will still be next to me

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SykkBoy

Yup
I've been thinking about this for awhile now and even posted on it about a year or so ago...porn will almost become like a loss leader...while you won't likely see any Proctor and Gamble ads, the competition amongst the other vice industries (tobacco, alcohol, etc.) might get them to look at some product placements and brand advertising. With more and more restrictions on advertising those types of products in other mediums, they might be willing to look at new options.

We know that online gambling will eventually be legal in the US (once the US Government finds a way to charge a hefty licensing fee plus tax the hell out of it) so we might see a renewed increase in online casino ad dollars.

It's likely going to get to the point that anything that is willing paid for will either be the really good quality high end classy stuff or the made at home amateur type stuff...it's already getting there now.

This industry could also start working more on interactivity. That's what dating and cam sites provide that traditional membership sites don't provide.

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brandonstills

Consolidation is the overarching theme. New business models will arise. Piracy will swallow up the small players while the smart players will love it (to some degree at least) because it will eliminate their competition. Porn will become a lot more targeted and consumers will be better served. Amateur content will become more prevalent as the traditional porn producer loses favor to the amateur porn producer who sells sex instead of the "concepts" and cookie cutter shooting styles that the larger porn producers are selling now. The subscription model will weaken, at least in the concept of joining a set of sites that updates periodically. VOD will become a lot more prevalent as bandwidth increases.

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crockett

Down the tubes would be my guess, at least the affiliate side of things.

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ADL Colin

good one

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Barefootsies

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Barefootsies

I have to laugh at these people that think porn will be free. It's a safe bet to say most who produce it do not think this way. Simple business or economics 101.

No where in the world do people get to enjoy content, or a product, that costs money to produce, without cost or buying it.

Once you see music, movies, video games, and the rest all being legally given away for free in the hopes of some Legendary Lars AFF or Cam advertising. You let me know.

Until then, it's just one more pipe dream of affiliate marketers thinking porn, and everything else, should be free on the web because they can't convert a sale any other way.

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aico

There is a good reason why so much porn is free. BECAUSE WE KEEP GIVING IT AWAY!!! There are enough FHGs out there to create a HUGE free porn archive. I've never seen any industry give so much away for so little return than this one. Some of you spend more energy on pleasing lazy affiliates, than you do on getting actual sales.

Barefootsies

This is so fucking true it's sickening.

For a long time companies have been feeding lazy affiliates with no originality, or selling skills to make conversions. Their answer? Keep pumping the marketplace with free shit, and maybe we'll get some sales.

It may have worked in the late 90's. But now there is too much competition, and other studios. Plus beer money baron affiliates. So their answer? Keep pumpin, and dumpin more free shit. Better quality, longer videos, eventually someone has to buy right?

Wrong.

Over years of doing this, you flood the market to the point many feel they do not have to pay, and can get a jerk for free. Companies then wonder how it all went wrong.

Factor that in with the assembly line mentality to production, and greed for more and more money. You start diluting the quality. Then the scams. Advertising one site so people sign up, and get absolutely nothing that was advertised. So people no longer want to pay.

The adult industry is it's own worse enemy. If online companies want to stay in business, you need to raise the bar on what it takes to get into it. Eliminating the bottom feeders, and beer money barons with no long term investment, ethics, or morals. Much less skills.

People who can't convert a sale without a ton of free, fresh new content. That is not sales or marketing. That is giving shit away free, and they collect a toll on the highway.

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crockett

what's that you say?

http://tube.penthouse.com

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EmpireAutopilot

Consolidated under a few major players.

ronin

i agree, seeing what happens with these will tell a lot...

fallenmuffin

Basically the same as it is now, only without as many tube sites. Tubes will start to fade once the bandwidth bills catch up to them all. Of course there will be another new stylish application that everyone will be bitching about though.

The only real change I see.. is more micro niching. There will be less "anything goes" sites and more smaller niched sites. We're already headed that way...

SweetT

So does no one believe that the adult industry is becoming more and more mainstream? If it continues then why will it not bring more mainstream type advertisers? I am pretty sure that you will never see Revlon advertising on an adult site, but what about products that are totally promoted to men? Beer? Auto Parts? etc?

This thread actually sparked some debate in my offices today. We have a major player in the adult internet in our offices today and were talking with them about it and one of them (a man way smarter than me) started talking about how once upon a time UFC Fighting was finding it hard to get sponsor money from the mainstream world due to its violence but now you see the US Army and Red Bull and companies like that getting involved.

Someone above mentioned more sin products and casinos and such. Are these all not just baby steps toward the final goal?

Just topics for discussion.


--T

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Barefootsies

Sounds like you've been talking to ShoeBitch.

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jay23

UFC is a good example of how ad guys change their minds when they find the perfect demographics.

As for Tube sites, the quality of the content will get better and better because the cost of BW is going down every year.

Semi-Retired-Dave

We were one of the first companies to offer free hosting. It was actually a make it or break it for us because in order to have free hosting, they would have to use our AVS. We had a T1 and nobody at the time was doing free hosting. We took the chance and it put us on the map. Now everyone has free hosting.

I think tube sites are going to be all over the place and bandwidth prices will keep dropping.
It sucks, I know. Something needs to happen.

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Barefootsies

It's happening already...

Beer money barons are getting out of porn. Ratios are dropping. Companies are consolidating.

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WiredGuy

The more geared for men sponsors (Axe body spray, condoms, army, redbull, beer companies, cigarette companies, casinos, etc) will likely be the ones doing the product placements in the ads. Once these start, you can start seeing more and more integration into the mainstream. Just like Tony said for the example of UFC, you will start seeing adult becoming more and more mainstream. Maybe not the explicit hardcore stuff, but I'd expect to see girl on girl, girl next door type stuff becoming less taboo and more accepted.
WG

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OMG Jim

This is the closest to an accurate answer to Dave's question that I can tell. The one thing that no one seems to be addressing is how we will utilize the social networking phenomenon that the internet has created to our favor and learn to develop new business models that will figure out the best way to monetize possibly the fastest growing area of the internet as a whole.
_

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Mutt

adult magazines have been around forever and they've never been able to attract ad dollars from mainstream. a captive audience of a million men reading a magazine and still no ads from Gillette, car makers, movie studios etc - I haven't looked at a Playboy in years to see who's advertising in it these days. Softcore nudes and Maxim style Non-Nude tease yeah I can see some of the edgier parts of mainstream advertising on that type of content but all this hardcore stuff like most of the big XXX video studios and web programs put out - you'll never get anything but fringe companies in related businesses to buy ads. I bet as UFC gets more mainstream the less likely they will want to be linked to the porn industry because they want the major beer companies, TV networks etc on their side.

Hardcore pornography will never really be mainstream business wise. that's what I think.

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aico

Actually, they do it creatively with reviews and articles about the products. They don't just pick those products out of a hat.

VikingMan

I talked to Norm Zedah (Perfect 10 magazine) several years ago and he was complaining about how many millions he had sunk into his magazine and was not getting anything back because hardly any advertisers wanted to be associated with adult. His content was really tame

Barefootsies

True dat

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SykkBoy

Kind like the point Mutt was making, I don't think we'd ever seen companies like Budweiser or Marlboro buying ads on Cum Guzzling Chug Sluts, but they are more likely to open their wallets to softer, "classier" type content sites

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GetSCORECash

This is what is happening in print.

You are haveing printers, the guys who run the presses buying adult magazines to stay in business. Will the same happen to adult, Will the hosting companies come in and start buying the smaller adult sites inorder so that they can keep thier bandwidth and server pools running?

In print we have bottom feaders and you have the top Sharks. We have no idea how the bottom feaders are keeping their doors open.

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GetSCORECash

We had no idea how he could keep putting so much money into Perfect 10 for so long.

He did inspire us to launch Looker www.lookergirls.com with similar content. We eventually stoped printing the magazine as we couldn't keep throwing good money out the door.

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Rochard

Websites will be used to send porno videos to the TV. No one will sign up to a site to watch them on their computer.

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MikeSmoke

Cross Marlboro off your list - the tobacco companies are so scared of more attacks on their business that they (I've been told by a very good source) even keep a close eye on smoking fetish sites, afraid that we'll do something that can be construed as promoting one of their brands, and ready to come down on us legally if that happens because they don't want to be accused of trying to get around their agreements on where they won't push their product.
If the tobacco companies were ever interested in ads and product placement on adult sites - I would have been able to retire years ago

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Barefootsies

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gadabout

I think it will get to the point where most things are based on live stuff like cams. You can't steal that and put it on any site. Interaction is what is needed to keep customers.

Fap

No more porn.. everyone will have robots to have sex with

RTP

ultra niched, monopolized maybe even syndicated

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CuriousToyBoy

xoxoxoxox

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Iron Fist

Tube sites will host legal content...

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