51 Predictions

I think adult interaction sites will become more popular. The kids of today are allready used to social networking and will look for the same or similar kind of thing as they reach adulthood. We put up a mainstream gamesite which is only a text based rpg game and we had 300 members signed up within a month, now not all of them are spending money but the site has already paid for itself within the first month. And the thing that keeps them playing is because they are part of the game, its interactive. If you look at the things like game consoles, even they are becoming interactive look how popular the WII is. I think the internet as a whole both in mainstream and adult will become more interactive and surfers will expect the same from adult porn sites.

Looks like Honda with the Simo and toyota has one now playing the Violin.
You may be right on track with this one....:thumbsup

Obscenity laws will begin to be enforced under the Clinton administration.

So i think all porn videos will start with the girls thoughts on the current political situation in the middle east in a easy attempt to become "culturally relevant" & thus protected.

You mean like they were under Clinton version 1.0? Doubt it.

Interesting thoughts. Keep them coming.

Yeah, there were more obscenity charges brought under his administration than any other including the current. Plus shes a bitter dike which is always scary.

Really name 5,its funny because Janet Reno she wouldnt waste gov resources going after adult porn made by and for adults. Porn grew more under clinton then any president before. Also look up nixon and reagan to check your history. Adam and eve spent 1 million dollars fighting during the reagan years and read about meese commission.

So I guess I will go in the opposite direction as most people. I think in 10 years we will still be doing things pretty much how we are doing them now. I think Tube sites will grow, then pretty much die off. Cheap bandwith is one thing, getting revenue from them is another. There is a reason just about every one of the big tube sites is for sale and can't find a buyer. When you count on selling porn to make money, you can't give them so much and expect them to buy. It is like giving someone a free car then trying to sell them an SUV. Some might buy it, but most won't and eventually you go broke. The tube sites will continue to exist, they will just offer less and be more legit.

As for advertising within the videos themselves...while I have great respect for the people that think this could be an option, I can't ever see this happening. There is a big difference between the UFC and Milfhunter. Both are entertaining as hell, but one has a girl sucking cock in it. You could, potentially, opt to make very softcore porn stuff that doesn't show penetration and is more like the sex scenes in regular mainstream movies, but I doubt that would do very well. Why watch a porn chick simulate getting banged when I can watch Angelina Jolie simulate getting banged? Also, people watch porn to have an orgasm. I doubt they will take note of what type of cigarettes or booze someone is drinking and even if they do you have to be an adult to watch porn so if you smoke are you going to change brands because you saw a porn hottie smoking something else? for advertising like that to work it has to be everywhere. Apple is brilliant at it. When you watch a TV show (and in many movies) and someone uses a laptop, more often then not it is an Apple. But these are shows getting seen by millions of people week in and week out and they are all over the place, it will be hard to equal that kind of exposure with porn. Not to mention that porn is still very taboo to many people. It is becoming more mainstream, but the Howard Stern show sometimes has trouble getting advertisers and they have a daily audience of around 6-8 million. Why, because they are too controversial. If they can't get mainstream advertisers how are you going to convince a company to buy a product placement in your porn video? If you promote other "porn friendly" type of products it could work, but in the end it will depend on how much exposure your video can get, how much you can sell that ad spot for and if you are just advertising porn friendly stuff, how is that different from what we do now? You just have the ad in the movie, not next to it.

Anyway, these are a few of my thoughts. I think things will change. Things always change in this industry. I don't see the demise of affiliates anytime soon because most programs rely on them for traffic and sales. Without affiliates most programs would cease to exist or would be shells of what they are. I don't think we will be more mainstream and I don't think giving it all away for free will work. We have a very specific product and, sadly, it kind of locks us into a specific style of marketing an revenue stream.

Ultimately I think there will be changes, but I think the tried and true method will eventually prevail. Porn is a personal thing. Some people are very open and talk about it with their friends, but most don't. Most people log on, go to their favorite site, get off and log out. It will be a tightrope walk for a while because people are going to want to protect their content and make a profit but not piss off users, but in the end I think the industry will kind of eat itself. Those that think the only way they can compete is by giving more and more away for free will eventually run themselves dry and people that continue to offer a good product for a reasonable price with continue to thrive and do well.

Well said :thumbsup

..cheaper costs of production but either more restrictions/filters to deal with or redlight district rules..

God help us if that..

I think it will go in several directions and a few models will be successful.

I think that one model can be like "Home Box Office" selling quality product...people with money don't mind paying a few dollars if they get trouble free quality....New audiences with broadband access and wanting erotic better than crap porn, will pay for quality product which will be simular to main stream media...

Surfers without funds will be exploited for the advertising with poorer content...

censorship will falter as mainstream media produces more violent and disturbing images...

Tube sites are the manifestation the vox populi (the consumers). Listen to it rather than bitching about it.

I was at a seminar that one of the partners at Sequoia Capital was talking about business trends and comparing a business to a surfer riding a wave. You can't change the wave. A good surfer will know where and when to be and then how to ride the wave.

The previous wave is coming to an end and a new wave even bigger is coming. Most people will be ignorant of this fact. The smart people are currently positioning themselves now. Those in the know I suspect are being quite as they don't want competition.

Look for the next big wave and ride it. You can't force a wave that is coming to it's end.

I think the next tube model has already been posted on GFY :2 cents:

It seems like things are happening in multiple directions not necessarily the same.

The gov't is becoming more totalitarian and there will be more restrictions I think. Porn will become more socially acceptable, but not mainstream. Revenue will increase and business will grow.

But the baby boomer's kids have all learned how to get it for free.

Yup, social networking is going to be huge. Not going to say anything more though. ;)

And yet porn revenue is still increasing.

According to who? What is the source of industry-wide revenue stats?

AVN Online has stats that they collect and publish for revenues. Not sure how accurate they are but it's good for general trends.

I have always said that revenue isn't going down industry wide, it is actually going up and out. Sure there are companies that are making less than they use to, but as a whole the industry is growing. Back in 1999 when I started there were only a few big players. now there are many. There is more revenue, it is just spread out over more people so it is perceived to be less.

No longer solvent if your only form of income is pay-per-play.

Does anybody think that the way paysite subscriptions will also change to more sms billing instead of only using credit cards as it seems to be prettty popular over here in Europe but not in the USA

I think you can't go by whats hot now. We have seen things be a big deal online then fade away. IMO there are so many variables. Speed of connection, will there still be net neutrality, will porn be banned online, will sales tax hit the net world wide. I think the way its going now its going to be more and more tv production quality and that will push out the smaller players.

I would expect something like this to be more and more common. There are a lot of people out there that either don't have a credit card, won't use it online or are from a country that keeps getting denied when they try to use it. The more billing options you have the better.

Yep you are right. I also see a lot of paysites that now offer downloads to IPODS and PSP so I guess with new gadgets coming out all the time this will also be more popular

Social networking is not hot in porn right now, although I'm assuming you were referring to mainstream. That's not how or why I made that statement. My statement was based on an analysis of market trends, technologies, natural steps for the next disruptive technologies, human psychology, trends/shifts of market segmentation, and case studies of businesses with similar histories and circumstances.

I think the old money will do exactly what you are mentioning, higher quality productions; but as a trend I see amateur producers on the rise and large production houses on the decline, both in terms of numbers and revenues.

I think as the quality goes up cost to get in the game will go up. Porn online is still the wild west.When they started making cars in the us there were over 200 american car makers now there are 3. I see that happening with adult online eventually.

I think this is the wrong reasoning completely, I will post the arguments for this when I am sober. But you have the wrong end of the stick in terms of production. :2 cents: IMO

I think there is certainly a big market for a higher quality product. The fastest growing market in porn is the stuff that is more erotic and story driven that doesn't have 10 straight minutes of close-ups of a dick slamming in and out of a chick, but instead is more wide shots and easy angles. It is stuff girls will want to see and want to watch with their boyfriends. A lot of girls see porn and go "eww, that's nasty." But they love sexy love scenes in movies. If you make something like that they are more open to it and guys will want to buy it for them as well.

That said I think the bread and butter of porn is good old fashioned fucking. If I want a good story I will read a book. If I want to see good acting I'll watch Raging Bull. I watch porn because I want to see fucking. How many people here own porn movies that have a story and you know exactly how much to fast forward to get to the first action scene? there are also a lot of people that love the more amateur side of porn. I think there will always be a big market for movies that are just sex an nothing more and you don't need a big company to make those.

Adam and Eve still has the highest requirements of any adult company in my opinion.

To see the future look into the past...


http://www.cinemaerotique.com/Traile...toryCinema.wmv

that all depends if china opens it's communications lines so people can freely surf the web.

Based on the number of requests I am getting weekly, and monthly for custom work. I would say that more interaction is the wave.

All these A.D.D. mofos do not want to wait for 1-2 months for the paid for custom work. They want it NOW.

I've said that for a very long time. Once the B/W limitations are gone, we will see the internet totally replace the TV. You will get a web TV like box from your cable company and it will connect your TV to the internet. (think why on earth would Microsoft buy webTV, also think appleTV).

TV stations will have on demand service via the web on your TV. All of this will slowly phase out the little guys as the corporate mongols slowly get their hands around the neck of the currently free marketplace of the internet. If they can do away with net neutrality it will be the first step along that path.

this thread need a bump!