Will Mugabe step down?

[Sarah_Jayne]

Rumors are brewing that a deal will be done to let him accept election loss. It would be good to not have a Kenya type reaction to the result but I am not sure if I think that will really happen. It would certainly be great to see him go.

[ADL Colin]

This might be a short thread, Sarah. ;-)

[Sarah_Jayne]

Originally Posted by ADL Colin

This might be a short thread, Sarah. ;-)

African politics not a hot topic over there? ;)

It is getting heavy coverage here but then the UK has historical interest. Plus, he has a Hitler mustache.

[ADL Colin]

Originally Posted by Sarah_MaxCash

African politics not a hot topic over there? ;)

It is getting heavy coverage here but then the UK has historical interest. Plus, he has a Hitler mustache.

Not a hot topic here despite some coverage. I think most people just tune it out.

S and P up 3.6% though. Make that a headline :-)

[ADL Colin]

What a nightmare.

Zimbabwe unemployment: 80%
Inflation: 100,586 percent
Life expectancy (if born today): 37
AIDS penetration (adults): 15% of population

[Sarah_Jayne]

The UK is the colonial past he uses as an excuse to be a tyrant. So, I suppose that is why it gets the major coverage over here. I used to work with a bunch of folks from Zimbabwe that had fled because of him and really wanted nothing more than to return to their country before he had totally destroyed it.

[SykkBoy]

I would like to see him go down without fight, but don't see that happening anytime soon...

[ADL Colin]

Originally Posted by Sarah_MaxCash

The UK is the colonial past he uses as an excuse to be a tyrant. So, I suppose that is why it gets the major coverage over here. I used to work with a bunch of folks from Zimbabwe that had fled because of him and really wanted nothing more than to return to their country before he had totally destroyed it.

Yeah, there is a fair amount of blame here in the US (when anyone discusses it at all) of Africa's problems in general on European colonialism.

A starling Map circa WW I when seen for the first time.

[Sarah_Jayne]

Since Idi Amin died the world has been short of an exiled African dictator.

[ADL Colin]

Originally Posted by Sarah_MaxCash

Since Idi Amin died the world has been short of an exiled African dictator.

Did you see "The Last King of Scotland"? Excellent movie. I'm betting you have.

[Sarah_Jayne]

Originally Posted by ADL Colin

Did you see "The Last King of Scotland"? Excellent movie. I'm betting you have.

Yup, very good indeed. The production company, Film 4, consistently makes some of the best films around. The torture scene towards the end of that was brutal.

[ADL Colin]

Originally Posted by Sarah_MaxCash

The production company, Film 4, consistently makes some of the best films around.

Never heard of them but will check 'em out.

[ADL Colin]

Sarah, what are your top recommendations from Film 4. i've seen Trainspotting and Motorcycle Diaries.

[Sarah_Jayne]

Originally Posted by ADL Colin

Sarah, what are your top recommendations from Film 4. i've seen Trainspotting and Motorcycle Diaries.

They sort of have a number of sides to them through their production and distribution arms.

One side produces very British films that perhaps won't play as well outside of the UK as they do here.

Of those in recent years I liked:

- This Is England (won the British version of the Oscar this year for best British film)

- East Is East


Then they do things that are still British but have international appeal:

- Shaun Of The Dead

- Sexy Beast


Then they do the stuff that I like best which is more unusual things that don't have to fit a mold. Often they are distributers on these things but they have a good eye.

Of those, some I have liked are:

- Touching The Void - seriously gripping documentary about too mountain climbers that get caught in a bad situation and one of them has to make the choice to leave his partner behind.

- Bread and Roses - Staring Adrien Brody before he was much known and directed by Ken Loach. It is about illegal Mexican immigrants trying to make a living in the States. Liked it a good deal.

- Series 7: The Contenders - Very strange film about a reality tv show where the idea is that the other contestants have to kill each other and the one left alive wins.

[ADL Colin]

Thanks Sarah.

I already had "This is England" in queue. All others added.

[Odin]

Looks to me like he is setting it up so Tsvangirai doesn't get the necessary 51% to avoid a runoff. And of course, when the runoff comes around and Mugabe's Zanu-PF defector (who took something like 8% of the vote it seems) isn't in the mix, of course Mugabe will just edge ahead. Could be wrong, but after all the shit he has caused, and pockets he has lined I don't see him stepping aside.

[Sarah_Jayne]

Originally Posted by Chief

Looks to me like he is setting it up so Tsvangirai doesn't get the necessary 51% to avoid a runoff. And of course, when the runoff comes around and Mugabe's Zanu-PF defector (who took something like 8% of the vote it seems) isn't in the mix, of course Mugabe will just edge ahead. Could be wrong, but after all the shit he has caused, and pockets he has lined I don't see him stepping aside.

Yeah, the longer it takes for the results the more it feels like he is pushing for a runoff and that just feels like it could get ugly.

[Odin]

Originally Posted by Sarah_MaxCash

Yeah, the longer it takes for the results the more it feels like he is pushing for a runoff and that just feels like it could get ugly.

I was reading though that Mugabe himself apparently doesn't want to enter a runoff as he believes it will consolidate support against him and lead to a humiliating defeat. Who knows, he may just step down if the 'old guard' within the party don't want to back him against the peoples will - which seems quite possible from what is being reported. Obviously the fact that Mugabe made the concession to allow each electorate to publicly post the informal count results tells me that he doesn't believe he can wield absolute power there. He has a lot of cronies who have done well off of his back, and I doubt they will like to see him go, but I think they fear that if they keep the peoples voice down for too long when things inevitably change they will be persecuted.

I predict he will step down in the next few days - week, after a list of guarantees are made (i.e. amnesty, retention of wealth, guarantees on some policies - such as not giving back white farms, etc), and that he will step down (at least in the eyes of his people) as a 'freedom fighter' whose Zanu-PF base and cronies (in the military, etc) will act to make sure nothing happens to him. As for Morgan, lets hope he is wise and strong enough to bring in people from outside (i.e. the West) to manage Zimbabwe's economy back to health. From what I hear (from people I know from Zimbabwe) and what I've read there actually isn't a whole lot of quality, capable people under him.

[Sarah_Jayne]

Originally Posted by Chief

As for Morgan, lets hope he is wise and strong enough to bring in people from outside (i.e. the West) to manage Zimbabwe's economy back to health. From what I hear (from people I know from Zimbabwe) and what I've read there actually isn't a whole lot of quality, capable people under him.

Yes, the last thing the country needs is a failed leader to follow.

I do hope you are right and Mugabe does just step down. He isn't a young man and maybe he sees that and is looking for a place to take him in his retirement assuming he doesn't stay in the country.

[ADL Colin]

I'll throw my hat in and let's let it get violent. I'll take "steps down peacefully" but he gets a bullet in the head before Osama does. Maybe even a machete if he stays in Africa.

[who]

I never could have guessed that you're so attractive Sarah. :$

[Sarah_Jayne]

If it gets overly violent there will calls for the UK to go in and we can't without looking like the colonial power he says the UK wants to still be. That is even if we had the troops to do it.

[Sarah_Jayne]

Originally Posted by who

I never could have guessed that you're so attractive Sarah. :$

Not sure if you are being serious or not but I have lost nearly 80 pounds now (70 in that pic) but I still have a LONG way to go. That pic is a particularly good one where the chin isn't showing but previously I never would have been able to take a pick without a few chins showing

If you were taking the piss...whatever makes you giggle, I guess.

[Odin]

Originally Posted by Sarah_MaxCash

If it gets overly violent there will calls for the UK to go in and we can't without looking like the colonial power he says the UK wants to still be. That is even if we had the troops to do it.

I don't think it will get violent to be honest. Mugabe has the military, the weapons and the soldiers on lock, I think he would love for the MDC to initiate some violence. The MDC is called the Movement for DEMOCRATIC Change because it knows if it tries change any other way it won't end nicely for them or their country. Even if Mugabe stays President from here, state owned newspapers have already started releasing figures which show Zanu-PF will likely loose the majority in the parliament. So, if Mugabe rigs the second round, wins and stays on as president I guarantee the MDC will be at least be happy to have a majority in the parliament and will simply kick up a stink, take it to court, etc and it will continue its prolonged battle with Mugabe and continue to wear at his power. That said, I can't see the UK getting involved if it did, can you? Perhaps through the UN in white helmets, or financially supporting the AU to go in, but not on their own.

[who]

Originally Posted by Sarah_MaxCash

Not sure if you are being serious or not but I have lost nearly 80 pounds now (70 in that pic) but I still have a LONG way to go. That pic is a particularly good one where the chin isn't showing but previously I never would have been able to take a pick without a few chins showing

If you were taking the piss...whatever makes you giggle, I guess.

I was being serious.

[Sarah_Jayne]

Originally Posted by who

I was being serious.

Thank you then. I still have a lot of 'fat chick' mental hangovers and one of those is years of 'my mate fancies you' insults. I am sure they will go with time

[Sarah_Jayne]

Originally Posted by Chief

I don't think it will get violent to be honest. Mugabe has the military, the weapons and the soldiers on lock, I think he would love for the MDC to initiate some violence. The MDC is called the Movement for DEMOCRATIC Change because it knows if it tries change any other way it won't end nicely for them or their country. Even if Mugabe stays President from here, state owned newspapers have already started releasing figures which show Zanu-PF will likely loose the majority in the parliament. So, if Mugabe rigs the second round, wins and stays on as president I guarantee the MDC will be at least be happy to have a majority in the parliament and will simply kick up a stink, take it to court, etc and it will continue its prolonged battle with Mugabe and continue to wear at his power. That said, I can't see the UK getting involved if it did, can you? Perhaps through the UN in white helmets, or financially supporting the AU to go in, but not on their own.

History means the UK can't directly get involved. It would have to be under the name of another group and on in which the UK wasn't the lead party. Though, there would be more support for it here than for Iraq.

[ADL Colin]

"Despite losing control of Parliament, President Robert G. Mugabe of Zimbabwe and his party were increasingly explicit on Thursday about their willingness to continue fighting for the presidency. " _ NYTIMES

[Sarah_Jayne]

yup, sounds like he is going to push for a run off...some opposition rulers have gone into hiding after their offices were ransacked and now apparently the police are surrounding the hotel were outside journalists are staying (most aren't 'allowed' to be there).

[CarlosTheGaucho]

One thing I've noticed, you can find a busload of information, movies, documentaries about Idi Amin or any dictator that was more or less suported by the former eastern block.

You won't find any info on those, who were supported by the Western block though, like Bokkasa from the central African republic or Duvallier from Haiti.

The consorship works on 100 pct.