Oil Now Over $96/Barrel - $100 Next Week Forecast

[GreyWolf]

That was quick! A spin around the world markets overnight and oil goes up a further $2 over yesterday and expected to reach $100 during next week. Time to go into the sugar cane biz for ethanol production

Soaring oil climbs past $96 mark

Prices are rapidly closing in on the $100 mark

Oil prices have continued their unremitting climb, passing the $96 a barrel mark after figures showed a surprise fall in US crude reserves.

US light crude rose as high as $96.24 in Asian trading on Thursday morning before falling back to $96.05.

Traders were concerned by a second weekly fall in US crude stockpiles ahead of the intensive winter period.

At the current rate of increase, prices are set to top $100 a barrel during the next week.

Adjusted for inflation, prices are still below the $101 high reached in November 1980.

US supplies

US light crude closed trading on Wednesday at a record settlement high of $94.53, after prices rocketed by as much as $4 to $5 in highly volatile trade.

[papill0n]

yeah it sure is going to get interesting in a few years when we hit peak oil

[pr0]

get rid of the suv's & buy a civic

or eventually a golf cart, for around town....

problem solved!

[GreyWolf]

And currencies so far are...

1.00 CAD = 1.05874 USD
1.00 AUD = 0.928013 USD

The pound rose to a 26-year high of $2.08, while the euro touched $1.45 - its highest point since its 1999 debut.

Mmmm... time to switch revenues over to Euro and GBP earners and raise paysite subs if paid in dollars.

[DWB]

Thank god I ride a mule around town.

[GreyWolf]

Originally Posted by pr0

get rid of the suv's & buy a civic

or eventually a golf cart, for around town....

problem solved!

Exactly pr0 Most of the imported oil product is wasted and emitted from cars anyways.

[GreyWolf]

Originally Posted by DirtyWhiteBoy

Thank god I ride a mule around town.

You're lucky DWB I got a pair of $2 sandals!

[teomaxxx]

Its stupid to make a rate cuts (aka lower value of US dollar) into major commodity bull. The price is to be paid by average "Joe Six Pack" few months later. The comming inflation will bring US into recession.

[denny007]

Well uncle Sam "prints" new dollars, so dollar losing value. Expect huge inflaction in the USA next year.

[GreyWolf]

Originally Posted by teomaxxx

Its stupid to make a rate cuts (aka lower value of US dollar) into major commodity bull. The price is to be paid by average "Joe Six Pack" few months later. The comming inflation will bring US into recession.

It's has got to be a choice between inflation or a credit crunch teomaxxx.

The far more dangerous option would be a raising of rates and a credit crunch where it could then follow on to a recession - and all hell would break out.

The credit crunch is starting to show already and suspect that's why the Fed elected to cut the rate - ie the pressure is already on and it's damage limitation time. Would think they are likely to decrease the rate further in the near future - and prob before the last quarter economic figures are published. (The quarter just passed was actually OK - 3.9%, but kinda wiped out by other things and the current quarter is expected to be utter crap - so suspect the Fed will step in again.)

[GreyWolf]

Mmmm... forgot one element - every time they weaken the dollar, oil is just going to rise (and imports)....

Hell... it's a no-win either way...

[L-Pink]

I have a 1968 Mustang conv that has been in the family since new. It has a 289 V8 with 86,000 miles and gets around 14 mpg. In 40 years technology has not done any of us favors as far as gas consumption.

2007 Ford Crown Victoria V8 11 mpg
2007 Ford Edge AWD 6cyl 16 mpg
2007 Ford Escape 4WD 4cyl 18 mpg
2007 Ford Escape FWD 4cyl 20 mpg
2007 Ford escape hybrid 4cyl 28 mpg

So we cut the cylinders by half, make the engines to complicated for all but the dealers to work on and except for the hybrid which at this point is not cost effective there is basically no improvement in efficiency.

Well how about the imports you say .....

2007 Honda Accord 4cyl 23 mpg
2007 Honda Accord 6cyl 18 mpg
2007 Accord hybrid 6cyl 24 mpg
2007 Honda Civic 4cyl 24mpg
2007 Civic hybrid 4cyl 40mpg

Not a lot better is it? The only efficencys were obtained by reduction in size of the motors.


All vehicles were automatic like the Mustang .... www.fueleconomy.gov for mpg city

[GreyWolf]

Originally Posted by L-Pink

I have a 1968 Mustang conv that has been in the family since new. It has a 289 V8 with 86,000 miles and gets around 14 mpg. In 40 years technology has not done any of us favors as far as gas consumption.

2007 Ford Crown Victoria V8 11 mpg
2007 Ford Edge AWD 6cyl 16 mpg
2007 Ford Escape 4WD 4cyl 18 mpg
2007 Ford Escape FWD 4cyl 20 mpg
2007 Ford escape hybrid 4cyl 28 mpg

So we cut the cylinders by half, make the engines to complicated for all but the dealers to work on and except for the hybrid which at this point is not cost effective there is basically no improvement in efficiency.

Well how about the imports you say .....

2007 Honda Accord 4cyl 23 mpg
2007 Honda Accord 6cyl 18 mpg
2007 Accord hybrid 6cyl 24 mpg
2007 Honda Civic 4cyl 24mpg
2007 Civic hybrid 4cyl 40mpg

Not a lot better is it? The only efficencys were obtained by reduction in size of the motors.


All vehicles were automatic like the Mustang .... www.fueleconomy.gov for mpg city

Not a lot of difference L-Pink. Are these "imports" really imports or US manufactured/assembled? Was wondering if they just did not give a shit and manufactured to consumption specs which suit the manufacturer? ie a car with 4cyl only gets 23 mpg??

[L-Pink]

Originally Posted by GreyWolf

Not a lot of difference L-Pink. Are these "imports" really imports or US manufactured/assembled? Was wondering if they just did not give a shit and manufactured to consumption specs which suit the manufacturer? ie a car with 4cyl only gets 23 mpg??

Those are the government city specs which might even be high! I don't know where the cars were built. I used city because that's were most driving is done, most gas money spent.

The Mustang cost $2800.00 in 1968, what's that in todays dollars?

[Megafoo]

we should have been in a recession 6 years ago. Right after George Bush came into office. (go figure). but Mr Bush decided to pump billions upon billions of dollars into the economy by doubling the national debt. In 7 years Bush did just as much damage to our national debt as all the other presidents since 1940. Republicans FTW!

[GreyWolf]

Originally Posted by L-Pink

Those are the government city specs which might even be high! I don't know where the cars were built. I used city because that's were most driving is done, most gas money spent.

The Mustang cost $2800.00 in 1968, what's that in todays dollars?

High?? *lol* Shit, but sure, city is going to be higher consumption.

OK.. Down and dirty calc... annual inflation since 1968 to 2006 totals 181.43% so $2800 would be around $5080 at todays levels.

Here's the URL for calcs... Misery Index :-) - Inflation Rates

[pudcat]

Originally Posted by L-Pink

I have a 1968 Mustang conv that has been in the family since new. It has a 289 V8 with 86,000 miles and gets around 14 mpg. In 40 years technology has not done any of us favors as far as gas consumption.

2007 Ford Crown Victoria V8 11 mpg
2007 Ford Edge AWD 6cyl 16 mpg
2007 Ford Escape 4WD 4cyl 18 mpg
2007 Ford Escape FWD 4cyl 20 mpg
2007 Ford escape hybrid 4cyl 28 mpg

So we cut the cylinders by half, make the engines to complicated for all but the dealers to work on and except for the hybrid which at this point is not cost effective there is basically no improvement in efficiency.

Well how about the imports you say .....

2007 Honda Accord 4cyl 23 mpg
2007 Honda Accord 6cyl 18 mpg
2007 Accord hybrid 6cyl 24 mpg
2007 Honda Civic 4cyl 24mpg
2007 Civic hybrid 4cyl 40mpg

Not a lot better is it? The only efficencys were obtained by reduction in size of the motors.


All vehicles were automatic like the Mustang .... www.fueleconomy.gov for mpg city

I'm not really seeing the point of your argument.

You're driving a car that does 14mpg and saying that technology has stood still when you can drive almost three times as far using the same amount of fuel in a newer car?

[L-Pink]

Originally Posted by pudcat

I'm not really seeing the point of your argument.

You're driving a car that does 14mpg and saying that technology has stood still when you can drive almost three times as far using the same amount of fuel in a newer car?

Check your math except for the hybrid none of the cars have managed to double the gas mileage in 40 years despite using much smaller engines.

[pudcat]

Originally Posted by L-Pink

Check your math except for the hybrid none of the cars have managed to double the gas mileage in 40 years despite using much smaller engines.

hybrid is a car? no?

[L-Pink]

Originally Posted by pudcat

hybrid is a car? no?

You are missing the point, but go ahead and argue this IS GFY.

[pudcat]

Originally Posted by L-Pink

You are missing the point, but go ahead and argue this IS GFY.

yeh, I said that in my first post

sorry, gotta get some zzzz

[theking]

Originally Posted by L-Pink

Check your math except for the hybrid none of the cars have managed to double the gas mileage in 40 years despite using much smaller engines.

What is the horsepower rating for the 289 Mustang?

[L-Pink]

Originally Posted by theking

What is the horsepower rating for the 289 Mustang?

Basic 289 around 200hp the hi-performance 289 almost 300hp.

And in todays dollars the car would cost $5000.00

[NemesisEnforcer]

Originally Posted by GreyWolf

That was quick! A spin around the world markets overnight and oil goes up a further $2 over yesterday and expected to reach $100 during next week. Time to go into the sugar cane biz for ethanol production

This is wonderful news for those of us investing in Canadian Energy Trusts.

[theking]

Originally Posted by L-Pink

Basic 289 around 200hp the hi-performance 289 almost 300hp.

And in todays dollars the car would cost $5000.00

I own a 2003 Toyota Tacoma 4x4 which I bought new for 22,000 cash. It is a V6 with 190 horsepower and makes 22 mpg on the highway. I am not sure what it makes around town...but I think probably around 18 mpg.

Americans like their horsepower so even though the engines are smaller the horsepower in the majority remains on the high side or close to what the older bigger engines were. Even when a new high milage car is introduced the manufacturers keep increasing the size of the car and increasing the horsepower as that is what the consumer wants. I bought a new '86 Escort that made 41 mpg on the highway but until the escort was discontinued they kept making it bigger, heavier with increased horsepower thus the milage kept decreasing.

The new Toyota Tacoma's have 240 horsepower and even though they have added a 6th gear to try and compensate the mpg is less than my '03. BTW I like my '03 better than the '07's.

[GreyWolf]

Originally Posted by NemesisEnforcer

This is wonderful news for those of us investing in Canadian Energy Trusts.

Think you are totally right on that

Got a partner who specializes in global investment here (mainly for expats) and he is constantly thumping not only the future prospects for Canada overall, but in energy resources.

His stats for markets over a five year period have proven to be very accurate and for Canada, - this has shown a return of 60% over the five year period and a very bright future outlook. If you compare that to the US for the same period, the market gain is only 18% (or less than 3.5%/year).




PS The next "energy resource" is plain water - amazing what scarity means

[ADL Colin]

Originally Posted by NemesisEnforcer

This is wonderful news for those of us investing in Canadian Energy Trusts.

[dready]

Originally Posted by RageCash-Ben

yeah it sure is going to get interesting in a few years when we hit peak oil

I think with the benefit of hindsight, we'll realize that peak oil was last year.

[GAMEFINEST]

times are rough ....

[GatorB]

Originally Posted by GreyWolf

That was quick! A spin around the world markets overnight and oil goes up a further $2 over yesterday and expected to reach $100 during next week. Time to go into the sugar cane biz for ethanol production

YOU LIE. This guy is an expert!

http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/07/news..._oil/index.htm

[GreyWolf]

Originally Posted by GatorB

YOU LIE. This guy is an expert!

http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/07/news..._oil/index.htm

Damn.. I lied - outrageous allegation for GFY!

The substance of the $100 level is from a early morning market press report - I never generated the magical figure, market analysists did. Tho the price has dropped since then, they are still saying:

Even as prices retreated, analysts said that crude oil would probably break through $100 a barrel this year.

Strong demand from developing nations and a weak US dollar are likely to keep pushing prices up, they said.

Note the claim prior to that was that they expected oil to hit $100 next week - that has since been revised

And. I'd agree with this, but for a more simple reason. The dollar will continue to decline for the forseeable future and with each decline in currency, oil will rise in price. It's that simple.

On a longer term, sure, can see oil at a level which was more a norm, but claims by Beutel, that "Four to 8 years from now, we could come down and break $20 a barrel" are just too absurd. That is like defying gravity. If he feels that confident, every govt on the planet should be on his doorstep buying oil futures at his prices - only hope he would have the financial assets to support his mouth



PS Also consider this - (tho not talking about Peter Beutel in particular), the financial reports on both shares and cristal ball gazing by analysts on Wall Street have been proven time and time again to represent an overly colorful outlook without foundation. These are the same people who introduced their bosses to the greed element of sub-prime mortgages. They are also the same people now selling "prime investment" when they know very clearly a number of packages are anything but "prime investment" and contain repackaged sub-prime loan problems. Yet again, it is another attempt to sell off Wall Street screwups to unsuspecting investors. Don't trust any of them - cred is lacking - and prefer to listen to analyists outside that 'sphere of influence'.

[theking]

Originally Posted by GreyWolf

Damn.. I lied - outrageous allegation for GFY!

The substance of the $100 level is from a early morning market press report - I never generated the magical figure, market analysists did. Tho the price has dropped since then, they are still saying:



Note the claim prior to that was that they expected oil to hit $100 next week - that has since been revised

And. I'd agree with this, but for a more simple reason. The dollar will continue to decline for the forseeable future and with each decline in currency, oil will rise in price. It's that simple.

On a longer term, sure, can see oil at a level which was more a norm, but claims by Beutel, that "Four to 8 years from now, we could come down and break $20 a barrel" are just too absurd. That is like defying gravity. If he feels that confident, every govt on the planet should be on his doorstep buying oil futures at his prices - only hope he would have the financial assets to support his mouth



PS Also consider this - (tho not talking about Peter Beutel in particular), the financial reports on both shares and cristal ball gazing by analysts on Wall Street have been proven time and time again to represent an overly colorful outlook without foundation. These are the same people who introduced their bosses to the greed element of sub-prime mortgages. They are also the same people now selling "prime investment" when they know very clearly a number of packages are anything but "prime investment" and contain repackaged sub-prime loan problems. Yet again, it is another attempt to sell off Wall Street screwups to unsuspecting investors. Don't trust any of them - cred is lacking - and prefer to listen to analyists outside that 'sphere of influence'.

Blah...blah..blah...Webby...the great pretender.

[Dollarmansteve]

meh, the modern economy has plenty of natural mechanisms in place to deal with expensive oil, if anything it makes alternative (ie expensive) forms of energy more economically viable.

[teomaxxx]

Originally Posted by Dollarmansteve

meh, the modern economy has plenty of natural mechanisms in place to deal with expensive oil, if anything it makes alternative (ie expensive) forms of energy more economically viable.

In short term there are no alternatives on large scale to expensive oil, otherwise they would be already here or in next few years.
So far, the only viable force able to bring down prices of oil down to the 50-60 bucks levels is comming recession.

[pudcat]

Originally Posted by dready

I think with the benefit of hindsight, we'll realize that peak oil was last year.

I agree completely

[rebel23]

does anyone remember the price of oil before we invaded Iraq?

[GreyWolf]

Originally Posted by rebel23

does anyone remember the price of oil before we invaded Iraq?

Sure ... the variance was between $25.60 and $28.20/barrel.

Tho the current price prob still has a relationship to Iraq, the main problem with the price now is the US economy - specifically dollar value.

[theking]

Originally Posted by GreyWolf

Sure ... the variance was between $25.60 and $28.20/barrel.

Tho the current price prob still has a relationship to Iraq, the main problem with the price now is the US economy - specifically dollar value.

Pigshit...you just continuously spread misinformation...now don't you.

[DaddyHalbucks]

I hear sugar cane production is not very eco friendly.

It's time to tax the living heck out of SUVs and other wasteful items.

[GreyWolf]

Originally Posted by theking

Pigshit...you just continuously spread misinformation...now don't you.

Do you actually have a point to make or are you just demonstrating how amazingly stupid you are again and letting your blind hatred ooze??

BTW.. You missed out the "blah.. blah... blah... pigshit" - that is crucial to any economic thread. Take some advice and fry yourself and donate your body oil to national reserves - they need it

[Wizzo]

Originally Posted by DaddyHalbucks

It's time to tax the living heck out of SUVs and other wasteful items.

How about them Bush wars that cost around 2,000,000 barrels a day.... ironic isn't it...haha

[digifan]

I'm lucky for I don't have a car

[minusonebit]

Fuck the oil industry.