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Vick!

50 lessons of war


























Edit: 51

RegUser

has anyone bought gold ???
what do you think?
wont it at least negate the downfall?

GreyWolf

Don't have gold RU, but sure, it would offer a hedge against a downturn if purchased at the right time. Gold is at a fairly high rate at the moment and looks like other folks have already got in there.

It's prob just as easy to invest in other markets/countries outside the problem sphere. In practice, they are taking your currency and converting it to whatever market currency and investing it - that is the start of a block on a depreciating currency. Most areas are stable and produce reasonable returns and some investments are ...well, never seen anything like that in my biz life. It's not all bad news man - there are plenty areas of opportunity for solid growth.

Also consider, tho oil may be hitting $100ish, that does not mean other countries are paying $100 - they are paying $100 in their own currency and have a currency gain because of the lower dollar. Example.. if the UK buys, they are really paying 49 GBP etc and the impact is not so much, so any area with a strongish currency should be fine for investment (all other things being equal )

RegUser

that is very true
but
wha about folks who still have stash of US $ hoping against hope that it will rise a bit again so that they can extract max. outta it ?

RawAlex

1.06980 today.

GreyWolf

Crystal ball time RU and timing is crucial But... if you use the crystal ball in conjuction with looking at the overall scenario - there are some clues which are hard to ignore and these suggest further reductions in dollar value.

As a sampler and looking at markets over a realistic timespan of eg five years to allow for temporary blips upwards and downwards. You then take eg an investment of $100K and dump it into the Canadian markets.

The average return from the Canadian market over five years would have been 60% (net of inflation). But.... when you factor in the depreciating dollar element which had been converted to CDN or other currencies, - you would have gained a further 60%. So... in real terms, you would get a $220K return for your $100K investment.

This is back to moving out of the "sphere of damage" and into more stable markets (or countries).

On the crucial timing element - Not into wasting time watching TV, but noticed one interesting clip lately. The "guest" was Robert Shiller (of S & P 500 fame) who is well-known for his realism and a credible guide to the future US home market in particular. He predicted the current home problem and is generally of the opinion that this has just started and there will be major losses between now and a good few years ahead.

He was asked by a phone-in caller (rough context of call) - "I have a property which cost $300K and it's on the market at $240K and can't sell it. I have reduced it several times already. What should I do?"

Schiller answer - "Price the property at a level which will result in a sale now and take the money." He then went on to justify his answer with a range of reasons - eg stocks of property of sale are high and growing weekly, new construction is already being hit, home values have a long way to go before a recovery etc - and he was a talking more longish term than anything.

So... don't really know what will happen RU, but the writing is on the wall and it may be worth considering changing dollars asap before the dollar drops further. There is not much doubt it will drop before the year end and, even if that is just a trickle - it can add up to reasonable loss on conversion.

Gutty feeling - cut any possible loses and start earning. We only got one life


PS If you want to know more of Robert Schuller's thoughts on this, Google is full of it and he also has a book, titled, "Irrational Exhuberance" which covers much of the current background problems.

RegUser

Excellent post. Many thanks and I mostly agree. I too feel that loony will stablize around US $1.10 mark for next few months, gold will cross $850.00, US will officially declare recession in 6 months and a massive upheavel is headed our way. In the end there is a real threat of US $ getting seriously and irreversibly devalued with Euro being the new king.
The only trick I was thinking of was to buy gold futures and use them to hedge against some US funds. Most US $ will have to be converted .....gawd it kiils me to calculate the losses.
If only I had acted in Sept.........

Paul

Does anyone else fear the potential colapse of the International Monetary System?

Paul

Oh I should state why I'm concerned.

In the UK we first had the Northern Rock bank run, they had to be bailed out by the Bank Of England (£23 billion so far!)

Today rumors are rife that Barclays is now in trouble and may needed bailed out

http://money.guardian.co.uk/business...204472,00.html

The UK banks exposure to the US sub prime market is pretty big

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...ccredit114.xml

The contagion appears to be spreading to Britain. Panmure Gordon analyst Sandy Chen has raised fears that the UK's biggest banks are exposed through asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) - loans against, say, mortgages and car financing that are supposed to be low risk. Mr Chen believes there is a high possibility that US sub-prime mortgages in these ABCPs will lead to large write-downs.

He estimates Barclays has £20bn-£25bn of total ABCP exposure, HBOS £20bn, HSBC £15bn, Lloyds £11bn and Royal Bank of Scotland £6bn. The write-offs will be proportionately very small but just 5pc would translate into a £1.25bn hit for Barclays.

I feel this stuff is only the tip of the iceburg! Just wait till next year when repossessions double (triple or even quadruple) House prices starting to slide, interest rates about to reset in Q1 08, BTL market in trouble.

Also British banks claim that their current problems arise from the credit crunch and they are not affected too much by the US subprime market but we have are very own sub prime market (Basically most people who purchased a home in the UK over the last 3 years, taking loans out as much as 7 - 10 times their yearly incomes! When they all start to default the shit will truely start to hit the fan!)

In my opinion this all spells disaster for the banking system (Maybe not just yet but in the next year or 2) I just don't believe that all the money the FED and ECB has pumped into the system is going help much. I feel it's not a question of if but when the system fails. (Maybe I'm being too pesimistic, time will tell)

I wish I had of put most of my money in gold in Q1 07

Vick!

Todays' Update:

$1 USD = 0.916

yay!!..