bhutocracy

voodoo.. you should read 12 clicks' "Instinctive Gambling.."

if it's drawn twice a day, there would be a 1 in 500 chance of it occuring each day.

Joe Sixpack

You are fucked in the head.

dacash

i agree with Voodoo

Mathematic Odds are not allways right, it depends on everything...

ok i'm going to the casino now...

__________________
____________
Marc

Voodoo

Mensa didn't think so.

__________________

TeraBabes

The stupidity of others really bothers me sometimes. I don't know why, but it does.

I seriously can not believe there are people who think the odds of 911 coming up in the NY lottery last night were anythinkg other than 1:1000. What I think is funny is how they are all saying "much higher," but none of them have actually calculated these mythical odds.

(And for the record, if there were 2 drawings in NY yesterday, which someone alluded to earlier, then the odds of 911 coming up in either of them were only 1:500)

__________________
This place is too big.

Hentai

Lottery officials picked 9-1-1 so they would get tons free advertising on all the local news!!!

Ace-Ace

I love how people freak out over stupid, pointless things - do you realize how many billions of events go on each and every day? The fact that one of them is coincidental, and happens to "reflect" some event is no big deal...

__________________
JamPlay.com - Online, video-based guitar lessons

Chris R

I agree 100% - This isn't brain surgery - there are 1000 different outcomes - all equally likely.

If you really think 720,000:1 or something else is the answer - what are the other 719,999 options that could have happened?

quiet

no doubt. one of the funniest things i've ever read on gfy. talk about poor math skills.

__________________
we'll miss you our friend. RIP

Chris R

Too true: It could have been drawn in DC - what about flight numbers, or 666 [showing something about terrorism] or 777 came up [showing god is watching over all of us]. There are a bunch of different things that could have happened.

This is similar to those that think the cross breams that were found in the WTC wreakage were some kind of massage from god. The fact that they are CALLED CROSSBEAMS - emphasis on cross apparently doesn't mean much.

What if it happened last year on 9-11?

Ace-Ace

Yes, it's 1:1000 chance - the fact that it was done twice in the same day is doesn't cut the odds in half though.

That's 1:1000 for that state...twice that day...there are 50 states...X number of countries (not sure how many have a lottery) with god only knows how many cites / states / provinces playing a 3-ball, 10-number lottery.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if there were at least 1,000 of them around...bringing the odds to 1:1. If some foreign country pulled that, would you guys be like "HOLY SHIT THEY GOT 9-1-1 THEY'RE GOING TO ATTACK US NEXT! BUSH NEEDS TO ACT QUICK!"

That's a possibility of 1:1 with LOTTERY NUMBERS. Do you realize how man hundreds and hundreds, possibly millions or billions, of events that go on daily in this world that could eventually cause something coincidental with this event? Wow...stupidity, uneducation, and whatever the hell else amaze me sometime.

__________________
JamPlay.com - Online, video-based guitar lessons

Voodoo

Good lord people!!! The original question was WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT 9,1,1 WOULD COME UP ON 9/11...... NOT WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF 9,1,1 COMING UP!!!!!! If you can't read posts in their entirety and follow threads.... Then don't post your idiotic comments about them!!!!

Let me make something very clear to all of you who didn't get past the 7th grade math....

WHEN YOU CALCULATE ODDS OF SOMETHING HAPPENING ON A PARTICULAR DAY, EVERY SINGLE DAY MUST BE ADDED TO THE EQUATION... OTHERWISE YOU ARE ONLY CALCULATING THE ODDS OF SOMETHING HAPPENING. GOT IT???? IF YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND, FIND SOMETHING ELSE TO DO!!!

AND TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTION.... The other 719,999 options are that 3,2,1 would come up on 9/11, or 5,8,7 would come up on 9/10, or 6,1,5 would come up on 10/15!!!!!!!! DO YA GOT IT NOW??????????????

__________________

FATPad

Mensa's really gone downhill. I blame it on rap music.

__________________
<a href="http://www.adultcontent.co.uk">Adult Content UK - Great British Content</a>

Voodoo

There are a total of 10 numbers and 3 balls:
10 x 10 x 10 = 1000

Now, let's say there is only 1 drawing ever.
For this drawing there is a 1:1000 chance that 9,1,1 will come up.

These odds do not change. They are the same everyday, every drawing.
There are 2 drawings everyday (Which I now realize is irrelevant).

I need to make a correction to an earlier calculation... it was made in haste:
The original question was, "What are the odds that 9,1,1 would come up on 9/11"...

Earlier, my calculation was for the question "What are the odds that 9,1,1 would come up on the second drawing on 9/11?"...

So, I withdraw my answer to that, as I was incorrect....

Please read continuation.....

__________________

Voodoo

So, let's answer the REAL question:
Now, the odds are 1:1000 on any given drawing, on any given day. And YES, some of you are correct that
if the question was "What are the odds that 9,1,1 would come up?"... You are absolutely correct.

However, we are dealing with a specific day in question. The odds are a bit different:
1000 x 365 days: = 365,000

The odds of 9,1,1 coming up on the specific day of 9/11 are:
1:365,000

That's all folks!

And sorry for saying someone had an idiotic comment... You're not idiotic... just misinformed.

__________________

TeraBabes

Ok, dude.... if you are so sure about this, why don't you put your money where your mouth is?

You say the odds of 911 coming up in a single drawing yesterday (on 9/11) were 1:720,000, right? So by your logic, the odds of 912 coming up in a random three digit drawing today would be the same - 1:720,000.

So, here is what I propose. You be the "house" and I'll be the "gambler." If 912 should only come up once in 720,000 drawings today, you should make a KILLING if you pay me at 100,000:1 odds. Right? I mean, theoretically, after 720,000 drawings, you would win 719,999 of them and lose just one. So, if we bet $1 pert drawing, you would win $719,999 and pay out $100,000 (on the one you lost), netting you nearly $620,000.

Damn! You're gonna be rich!!!!!!

So, let's do it. I must be CRAZY to take this bet at only 100,000:1 odds, but I'm gonna do it anyway.

So, to make sure everything is fair, we will use a random number generator.... maybe www.random.org if that's cool with you. Whatever. Doesn't matter to me.

And then we will start drawing numbers. Every time 912 doesn't come up, I will pay you $1. And then we will draw again. And again, and again, and again. I'll play all day long, as long as you want, and I will keep GLADLY handing you $1 bills every time 912 doesn't come up. But as soon as 912 does come up - yes, today, on 9/12 (odds - 720,000:1 according to you), you have to pay me $100,000.

Sound good? Ready to play? Let's do it! Daddy needs a new pair of shoes!

__________________
This place is too big.

FATPad

You're assuming there is only one drawing a year, and the date of the drawing is random.

I need a smiley for banging my head on my computer table...

__________________
<a href="http://www.adultcontent.co.uk">Adult Content UK - Great British Content</a>

TeraBabes

You are so funny. Sad, but funny.

Ok, to ammend my pervious post, since the odds are now 365,000:1, I won't make you pay me $100,000 when 912 comes up.... I'll only make you pay me $50,000. And I will continue to pay you $1 every time 912 doesn't come up.

You have to admit, that's a pretty fair offer. You're going to be RICH!!!

Sound good?

__________________
This place is too big.

TeraBabes

Please stop helping this poor sap. Let me take his money first.

__________________
This place is too big.

Dawgy

the odds are always 50/50. either i will fart, or i wont.

__________________
the revolution is coming.

TeraBabes

*impatiently awaiting new pair of shoes*

__________________
This place is too big.

Kris

ok... here's what we've got to look at:

1. Before the lottery drawing last night, What's the probability that 9-1-1 will be picked? Answer: 1/(10*10*10) = one out of a thousand. This is a standard probability calculation, since there are 10 choices for each digit.

2. Now not every date can be represented by a pick-three lottery, like October 15. But you could ask, what's the chance that sometime in September a pick-three lottery will match up with the date (assuming the numbers are drawn every day). This is a much larger probability. For a 30-day month, it's about 3%. Related: What's the chance that some time in the first 9 months you get a lottery number that matches the date. Assuming, say, 270 days in the first 9 months this probability would jump up to to about 24%.

3. Suppose that there are 50 pick-three lotteries in all 50 states. What's the chance that at least one of them came up with 9-1-1 last night: about 5%

4. What's the chance that, given that a horrific event takes place in a particular state, the lottery in that state comes up with the same date on the year anniversary? That's a much harder probability to calculate and probably not possible to assign a number to. But it would most certainly be much smaller than the 1 out of 1,000 figure, which makes one very suspicious about the result.

--this from a head of probability and odds at a university...

__________________
I am the walrus.

DrewKole

Lets hope the odds are in my favor, that I wont be around when you do

TeraBabes

Voodoo - are you taking my bet or what??? Come on dude... this will be EASY money for you!

I mean, today is 9/12. As you have said repeatedly, the odds of drawing three digits equal to today's date are astronomical (365,000:1 in your most recent post, I believe)!

Come on.... let's play!

__________________
This place is too big.

Kris

nice

__________________
I am the walrus.

TeraBabes

*sigh*

Looks like no payday for TeraBabes.

__________________
This place is too big.

AWW - Kevin

haven't had time to read all the replies !

the odds of 9-1-1 coming up today are ..................

2-1000 as there is 2 drawings each day at 1-1000 odds for each drawing !

shouldn't have taken "most" ppl more then a minute to figure out

__________________


Add Your Resource
ICQ: 1212-58311

TeraBabes

If you want to get a laugh AND feel the overwhelming urge to bang your head against your desk, read the posts in this thread.

"Priceless."

__________________
This place is too big.

DrewKole

Suck me, I was thinking yearly fuckin lottery.

But please, bang your head against your desk alll ya... want...

Sugah.

Just the Village Idiot

Funny how you just double the first number and leave the second alone...

ho hum.

TeraBabes

So you thought there was a special lottery to see which day of the year they hold the DAILY NUMBER lottery?



Sorry, too funny.

__________________
This place is too big.

Voodoo

LOL!
This thread rules!
Holy shit I'm tired!

__________________

Raven_XXContent

That is fucking creepy!! And same as the dollar bill.

__________________
ICQ# 167399639

You want content that no one else has? Click here for streaming DVD's with AVN winning choices!!

Mr.Fiction

The Law of Probability says that the odds of a specific series of numbers being drawn on a specific day are not the same as the odds of any set of numbers being drawn on any day. Anyone who has taken statistics in college should know that it's not as simple as it seems if you are matching the date with numbers.

Do a Google search or read this, for those of you that care:
http://www.peterwebb.co.uk/probability.htm


Periodic events

So far we have discussed probabilities in terms of outcomes either occurring or not occurring, but sometimes the gambler will wish to know the probability of an outcome occurring within a given time or during a given sequence of events. If a given event must occur exactly twice in 2 years, then if one year is chosen as a unit of time, and the continuous occurrences of the event are called E1, and E2, there are four possibilities:-

Year A Year B
1.E1,E2 ------
2.E1 E2
3.E2 E1
4.----- E1, E2

Note that these possibilities are similar to the tossing of two coins, and that care has been taken not to reduce the possibilities to three by combining 2 and 3 as one possibility.

It follows that if an event must occur exactly twice only in two years, the probability of it occurring at least once in either year is 3/4. There are three times within the table above in either year that the event occurs only once and one occurrence where it would not occur. Only in possibility 4 does the event not occur in year A. There is a formula to work out these probabilities.

If an event must occur exactly x times in a period divided equally into N smaller periods, then the probability of the event occurring at least once in any small period is

=(power(n,x)-(power((n-1),x))/power(n,x)

Thus, if an event must occur four times in ten years, the probability of it occurring in the first two years is

=(power(5,4)-(power((5-1),4))/power(5,4)

=((625-256))/625 = (369/325) = 0.5904 or much better than 50%.

The Chevalier de Mere, a rich Frenchman who liked gambling, was responsible for inviting the philosopher and mathematician Blaise Pascal to carry out some of the earliest work on probability theory.

De Mere played a gambling game in which he bet that he could throw a six in four throws of a die. De Mere progressed from this game to betting that with two dice he could throw a double in 24 throws. It was known that the odds were in his favour with the first game, and gamblers of the time reckoned that as four is to six (the numbers of ways a die can fall) as 24 is to 36 (the ways two dice can fall), the second game should be favourable. The Chevalier de Mere was not satisfied with this assumption and asked Pascal to work out the true probabilities.

To work out these two problems it is necessary to work out the converse probabilities. The probability of not throwing a 6 in four throws is:-

=power((5/6),4)=625/1296

Therefore the probability of throwing at least one 6 is :-

=1-power((5/6),4) or 0.5177

As an even money proposition, therefore a bet to throw a six in four throws of a die is slightly in favour of the thrower. The probability of not throwing a double six in 24 throws is:-

=power((35/36),24)) = 0.5087

This means that the bet is (slightly) against the thrower.

Various formulae have been put forward to determine the number of throws necessary to make the throwing of a double-6 a better than even chance. The old gamblers' rule in operation in de Mere?s time relied on knowing the answer to the lowest number of throws necessary to give a probability of throwing 6 with a single die of more than 1/2. As has been said, this was known to be 4, which might be called the break-even number. According to the rule the break-even number for the double event (N2) is the probability of success on the single event (P1), known to be 1/6 (the probability of a 6 with one die), divided by the probability of success on the double event (P2), known to be 1/36 (the probability of a double-6 with two dice), multiplied by the break-even number of the single event (N1), known to be 4. Thus

n2=(p1/p2)*n1 by substitution n2=((1/6)/(1/36))x4, or n2=((36/6)x4)

In this equation n2=24, guessed correctly by the Chevalier de Mere to be wrong. Abraham de Moivre, in a book The Doctrine of Chances published in 1716, set out a formula for discovering the approximate break-even point (n) as:-

n=(0.6931/p)

(0.6931 is the ?Natural? logarithm of 2). So this gives the answer to our problem as 24.9516. An approximate break even number of 25, which is correct.

This gives an effective break number of 25, which is correct, although de Moivre?s formula gives too high a number, which is only slightly too high when the probability is small, but may be critically too high when the probability is larger. For example, de Moivre's formula for the break-even number for throwing a 6 with one die gives n = 0.6931 x 6 = 4.1586, which gives an effective break-even number of 5, which is too high, 4 being correct, as we have found.

It is interesting that John Scarne, in his famous book Scarne's Complete Guide to Gambling, published in 1961, states that the odds to one should be multiplied by 0-6931. Thus his approximate answer to de Mere's problem is n = 0-6931 x 35 = 24.2585. This answer is too low, although it gives the correct effective break-even number as 25. Scarne's formula applied to throwing a 6 with a single die gives the answer n = 0-6931 x 5 = 3.4655, again slightly low, but giving the correct break-even number of 4. The third formula to find the break-even number is as follows:-

If the probability of the outcome is (1/a) then :-

n=(log 2/((log a)-(log(a-1))))

In this case, the logarithms are the ordinary logarithms, to base 10.
The break-even number for throwing a double 6 thus becomes:-

n = (log 2/(log 36 -log 35))

which, with the use of four figure log tables, gives n a value of 24.6721, thus giving 25 as the effective break-even number. For throwing a 6 with one die, n = 3.8005, confirming 4 as the effective number.

When the Chevalier de Mere asked Pascal to help with this problem Pascal provided him with his answer, and began a correspondence about probabilities with Pierre de Fermat, another French mathematician, which established probability theory as a new branch of mathematics.

X37375787

question: what is the probabilty for the numbers 9,1,1 to come up on september 11th?

answer: 1/1000




i will be only laughing if you think there is a different answer to this question. maybe you should have done your homeworks when you took statistics classes (if you ever did)

DrewKole

The numbers I was thinking related to if there was a 365 day lottery, as opposed to 1.

Er, er, er.

Mr.Fiction

1/1000 is the odds that 9 1 1 will be drawn on any day, not the probability that it will be drawn on a specific day.

Lane

i posted this msg... i didnt notice Equinox was logged in on my PC, fucker..

__________________

salem

fuck my head hurts

HQ

This thread is too much to read. But to back myself up and to say that Voodoo is right, all I was saying is that it depends on what you are talking about. If you are talking about just that one number than it is 1:1000. If you are talking about everything that lead up to it including the creation of the universe than it is almost infinite. (I know, "almost infinite" makes no sense, but you get the point.)

TeraBabes

*sigh*

Then please tell us all what the exact odds for 911 to come up in NY's lottery drawing last night (9/11) were.

And I will make you the same $$ offer I made Voodoo when I scared him away.

__________________
This place is too big.

Lane

it is 1/1000 that it will be drawn on one specific day... you specify the day, there are 1000 possible numbers for that day, each have a chance of 1/1000...

the chance that 911 will be drawn on september 12th is 1/1000 or any other day its the same... every day its 1/1000 chance...


an important rule of statistics:
in an event, if you add all probabilities for each outcome, it has to add up to 1 .. here the event is a drawing, the drawing on 9/11 .. there are 1000 possible outcomes of this single event.. since each number has the same probability, they all have the odds of 1/1000 each..
1000 x 1/1000 = 1


whatever date and whatever number you pick, the number to be drawn on that day has the odds of 1/1000...

jeez, how else can i explain this..... if you still dont get it, go back to college or something..

__________________

TeraBabes

Lane - how am I ever going to make any money off of these guys if you keep explaining this to them so clearly? I'd much rather teach them the hard way, when it hurts their bank accounts.

Then again, it's been explained about 10 different way now and some people STILL don't seem to get it, so maybe there is money to be made yet.

I can only hope on of these guys who thinks the odds are greater than 1000:1 will step up with some cash. Come on smart guys, let's do it! If you are so sure, let's play.........

__________________
This place is too big.

salem

According to Prof.Gerard Ben Arous of New York University's Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences its 1 in 1000

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/020912/80/d9hnp.html

TeraBabes

Gosh. That's a shocker.

I guess Prof.Gerard Ben Arous of New York University's Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences has at least half a brain.

__________________
This place is too big.

Mr.Fiction

I'm not a fucking mathematician.

I'm just saying that the simple odds of something happening are different than the probability of specific events happening in a specific order, or at a specific time or place.

I'm not making this up, it's statistics stuff. Not that I paid enough attention to know all the formulas, but I know that it's more complex than it first seems if you look at a bigger picture.

Mr.Fiction

That's exactly what I said - on any given day the odds are 1/1000.

Lane

"on any given day"

the given day is 9/11 and the odds are still 1/1000

__________________

TeraBabes

So even though we have explained and proved this to you numerous different ways, you are convinced that you are right, even though you can't prove or explain it?

Ok, one more time... as simply as I can state it:

There are only 1000 different combinations. Don't believe me? Count them:

001
002
003
...
998
999
000

Tada - 1000.

When drawing any ONE of those 1000 combinations (even 911), the odds are OBVIOUSLY 1:1000.

The numbers do not give a shit what the current date is, what number came up last, how many posts are in this thread, or if you wacked off at 3:47 that day.

__________________
This place is too big.

TeraBabes

100.

I wonder how that will affect tonight's drawing. I guess the odds of 1-0-0 coming up tonight would be astronomical, since there are now 100 replies to this post.

__________________
This place is too big.