Someone bets 4,5 bilion of dollars on market crash

[teomaxxx]

Monday, August 27, 2007
"Bin Laden" Trades, Another 9/11 Coming?

Sunday, August 26, 2007
$4.5b bet on another 9/11 within 4 weeks
Related
Mystery trader bets market will crash by a third
The Fed: Something big is going to happen
---
August 26, 2007


$4.5 billion options bet on catastrophe within four weeks
Anybody have a clue as to what these 'investors' are expecting?

The two sales are being referred to by market traders as "bin Laden trades" because only an event on the scale of 9-11 could make these short-sell options valuable.

There are 65,000 contracts @ $750.00 for the SPX 700 calls for open interest. That controls 6.5 million shares at $750 = $4.5 Billion. Not a single trade. But quite a bit of $$ on a contract that is 700 points away from current value. No one would buy that deep "in the money" calls. No reason to. So if they were sold looks like someone betting on massive dislocation. Lots of very strange option activity that I haven't seen before.

The entity or individual offering these sales can only make money if the market drops 30%-50% within the next four weeks. If the market does not drop, the entity or individual involved stands to lose over $1 billion just for engaging in these contracts!

Clearly, someone knows something big is going to happen BEFORE the options expire on Sept. 21.

THEORIES:

The following theories are being discussed widely within the stock and options markets today regarding the enormous and very unusual activity reported above and two stories below. Those theories are:

1) A massive terrorist attack is going to take place before Sept. 21 to tank the markets, OR;

2) China, reeling over losing $10 Billion in bad loans to the sub-prime mortgage collapse presently taking place, is going to dump US currency and tank all of Capitalism with a Communist financial revolution. Either scenario is bad and the clock is ticking. The drop-dead date of these contracts is September 21. Whatever is going to happen MUST take place between now and then or the folks involved in these contracts will lose over $1 billion for having engaged in this activity.

"$1.78 Billion Bet that Stock Markets will crash by third week in September Anonymous Stock Trader Sells 10K Contracts on EVERY S&P/Y "Strike" Shorts Stocks "in the money" effectively selling all his SPY holdings for cash up front without pressuring the market downward.

This is an enormous and dangerous stock option activity. If it goes right, the guy makes about $2 Billion. If he's wrong, his out of pocket costs for buying these options will exceed $700 Million!!! The entity who sold these contracts can only make money if the stock market totally crashes by the third week in September.

Bear in mind that the last time anyone conducted such large and unusual stock option trades (like this one) was in the weeks before the attacks of September 11.

Back then, they bought huge numbers of PUTS on airline stocks in the same airlines whose planes were involved in the September 11 attacks.

Despite knowing who made these trades, the Securities and Exchange Commission NEVER revealed who made the unusual trades and no one was ever publicly identified as being responsible for the trades which made upwards of $50 million when the attacks happened.

The fact that this latest activity by a single entity gambles on a complete collapse of the entire market by the third week in September, seems to indicate someone knows something really huge is in the works and they intend to profit almost $2 Billion within the next four weeks from whatever happens! This is really worrisome."

http://justwondrin.blogspot.com/2007...11-coming.html

[ridikuloz]

I'm moving to Amsterdam.

[slapass]

looks like it already paid off as he made the trade yesterday.

[ServerGenius]

congrats to the winners

[Sen]

Hmm bye bye all who has payouts in euro ?

[JakeR]

Originally Posted by slapass

looks like it already paid off as he made the trade yesterday.

huh?
.....

[BradM]

Any reputable sources of this?

[pocketkangaroo]

Originally Posted by BradM

Any reputable sources of this?

Blogspot blogs are the most credible sources in the world.

As for his wager, it's no fucking surprise the market is going to go down. We are heading into a recession. Next thing you'll tell me is that the housing market is in rough shape and Mike Vick might have had something to do with dog fighting.

[Violetta]

Im taking a plane 9/11...

[Dirty Dane]

Time to buy shares in weapon industry then.

[Dollarmansteve]

out of the money covered call writing? This is an income strategy for individuals who hold large positions in certain securities.

The possbility of this being open call writing is slim. There is not enough information here to really know whats going on.

It is convenient that a 3rd, more likely scenario is left out of the analysis.

The thread title is also misleading. I can go and control $100,000 of currency for about $100 if I wanted to, lol.

[liquidmoe]

Im currently holding $1 billion in options for "Sky is falling" I'm planning for my early retirement


For those of you new to options trading, I basically make bank if the sky falls. I think I'm sitting pretty.

[tranza]

Any real source about this (like CNN, NYTimes, etc)?

[Dollarmansteve]

Oh, also - an out of the money write on calls is the wrong play for either of the scenarios mentioed.

If you want to make the most money you have to have the most leverage with the ability to participate in 'windfall' gains. This would be accomplished by BUYING out-of-the-money PUTS. (ie. owning the option to sell at a guaranteed price well above mkt. price).

[fluffygrrl]

Originally Posted by Dollarmansteve

Oh, also - an out of the money write on calls is the wrong play for either of the scenarios mentioed.

If you want to make the most money you have to have the most leverage with the ability to participate in 'windfall' gains. This would be accomplished by BUYING out-of-the-money PUTS. (ie. owning the option to sell at a guaranteed price well above mkt. price).

He's right on that score.

[GAMEFINEST]

thats alot of money

[12clicks]

http://www.snopes.com/rumors/putcall.asp

Claim:   In the days just prior to the 11 September 2001, large quantities of stock in United and American Airlines were traded by persons with foreknowledge of the upcoming 9/11 attacks.
Status: False.

[OzMan]

Originally Posted by pocketkangaroo

Blogspot blogs are the most credible sources in the world...

bingo

[gornyhuy]

Tinfoil hats for sale, $1 dolla each~!!!

[D]

People that write that shit - without credible sources - should be shot.

[crockett]

Originally Posted by BradM

Any reputable sources of this?

lol yes we already had this topic yesterday but then it was on for 2 billion..

the source was prisonplanet.com

grab the tinfoil hats everyone..

btw the whole put option and 9/11 thing is listed as false on snoopes.com

[teomaxxx]

Originally Posted by D

People that write that shit - without credible sources - should be shot.

http://www.financialnews-us.com/?pag...tid=2448565379

[teomaxxx]

Originally Posted by BradM

Any reputable sources of this?

http://www.financialnews-us.com/?pag...tid=2448565379

[teomaxxx]

not sure if its hoax or not, but many bigger websites has listed that article:
http://www.google.cz/search?as_q=Mys...ch=&as_rights=

[Dollarmansteve]

Originally Posted by teomaxxx

http://www.financialnews-us.com/?pag...tid=2448565379

The above link is not about S&P options at all, and is about a very bearish position (bought puts) on the DJ eurostoxx index.

[stev0]

Originally Posted by teomaxxx

2) China, reeling over losing $10 Billion in bad loans to the sub-prime mortgage collapse presently taking place, is going to dump US currency and tank all of Capitalism with a Communist financial revolution. Either scenario is bad and the clock is ticking. The drop-dead date of these contracts is September 21. Whatever is going to happen MUST take place between now and then or the folks involved in these contracts will lose over $1 billion for having engaged in this activity.

They wouldn't do that... the US owes them WAY too much money

[teomaxxx]

Originally Posted by Dollarmansteve

The above link is not about S&P options at all, and is about a very bearish position (bought puts) on the DJ eurostoxx index.

sorry, i misplaced different url. I0have to find it out where I read it about S&P options , it was more serious source then blog.

But that bearish positions on DJ eurostoxx could be seen as bet on crash too...

" An anonymous investor has placed a bet on an index of Europe's top 50 stocks falling by a third by the end of September, as world equity markets plunged for a third day and volatility hit a three-year high.
The mystery investor has bought put option contracts on the DJ Eurostoxx 50 index that will result in a profit if it plunges to 2,800 or below by the end of September. Based on the 2,800 strike price, the position covers a notional €6.9bn, and potentially even more using a market price of about 4,100 when the trades were done on Tuesday and Wednesday.
"

[DaddyHalbucks]

Originally Posted by 12clicks

http://www.snopes.com/rumors/putcall.asp

Claim:   In the days just prior to the 11 September 2001, large quantities of stock in United and American Airlines were traded by persons with foreknowledge of the upcoming 9/11 attacks.
Status: False.

The internet has hoaxes and bs?!

NO WAY!!

[OMG Jim]

Stock market down triple digits today!

NYSE Composite 9289.92 239.01 down
Dow Jones Ind. 13041.85 280.28 down
AS OF 16:17 ET 28 Aug 2007

[Brujah]

The blogspot source was Ticker Forum.
http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticke...-www?post=4669

[V_RocKs]

ATTENTION SPONSORS: I want to be paid in Euros until this whole thing blows over.

[howard]

Of all the conspiracy theories and data they had on 9/11 the 1 question that boggles my mind still is---they have to know who bought all the puts before 9/11---they never made the info available--I hope its becuase they assinated anyone who owned the puts--that what isreal would have done

[howard]

http://www.snopes.com/rumors/putcall.asp

it just doesn't add up. Maybe we the USA are just to embarissed to name names who profited....

People are too greedy for someone with adavanced knowledge of 9/11 not to use the info to buy puts...

All the info on the buys has to be traceable....

Its the big mystery to me...and no one seems to have ever discussed it

[minusonebit]

Originally Posted by Rockatansky

Im taking a plane 9/11...

Sign your reparations payment over to me first, OK?

This is all bullshit, but I have been loading up my eTrade account lately. Gonna do some serious shopping here in a couple of weeks. I like it when the markets take a shit. While everyone else is bitching about their losses, I am snapping up the bargains.

[jonesonyou]

investing in the war effort seems good for now.

[jimmycash]

They'll probably pick up the story a month after this coming incident.

[Trax]

the traderforum link is very nice
though a bit scary

[Trax]

http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticke...t=4669&page=18
post 9 on that thread might be a reasonable explanation.

[JohnV]

Originally Posted by pocketkangaroo

Blogspot blogs are the most credible sources in the world.

As for his wager, it's no fucking surprise the market is going to go down. We are heading into a recession. Next thing you'll tell me is that the housing market is in rough shape and Mike Vick might have had something to do with dog fighting.

it's called a correction at this point....god I love the media and panic stricken fools....

[Angie77]

If I had 4.5 billion as walking around money then I'd bet on it too :D

[jonesonyou]

I am scared.

[Lykos]

something is happening .....

[minusonebit]

Bump for the end of the world.

[B40]

Here you go...

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/news...mp;cm_ ite=NA

[Michaelious]

Looks like some weird scare mongering