I think the hard part is going to be keeping the info from the sponsors...... it only takes one person to tip off the sponsor that a test is underway.

Will you do the site design? :Graucho

I'll be shooting you an icq once I get on.

Very true. I have received a shitload of responses so far, but I am only going to go with those that I know are just Joe Schmo live off their signups webmasters that I recognize from the board.

And if they do get tipped off, and they kill it mid process. Those results will be posted as well. A sponsor scared to be tested is one that you should worry about.

That being said, have about 15 people who say they are definitely interested that I would like to go with, but if more want to participate, the better.

True. Very true.

I wouldn't be surprised to see conversions "suddenly" rise in anticipation or fear of the test. LOL.

If any sponsor finds out which affiliate account you're using, then the test will be useless. If they guess that it's one of the people involved in the test, maybe they'll turn off the shave on all the people doing the test. You still win.

It also may be a good idea to not post the results until the entire test of all sponsors is complete. That way one can't tell the other to be on the lookout for certain IP numbers or names.

Should be intresting, I like the time i had rebills showing up but never had any sales on a new sponsor i used once. :winkwink:

Extending your point, maybe the fear of shave tests will force the guys who do shave to stop. In essence, a "prisoners dillemma" is created because they do not know when a test is going on and who stopped their shave o matic. This will just be good for the industry in general--less bullshit.

sounds like a good Idea

Just remember to use us in the test.
www.freefreeprogram.com does not shave
Like I always say put me to the test.

We never shave joins but we do count second page hits.
as soon as you click on anything off the home page then we
count the hit.

I'm curious to see what happens if you guys pull this test off:thumbsup

very interesting.

if you take part of this you might wanna use your gf's credit card or someone else's who is close to you and allows you to use his/her cc. I just thought you might get some big time enemies if you use your own info and cc.

ps. labret, I was just wondering, you might wanna consider your lawyer first. or maybe you already have :) sponsors often use terms like
"Attempts to cheat, defraud or mislead us in any way"

It wouldn't be cheating imo, but misleading? perhaps
If your project gets serious, be prepared :)

good luck

Then you just post which sponsor is suing you, that oughta shut him up fast :ak47: :ak47:

1st time i see a sponsor with independent stats to be a volunteer for shaving test. hehe

I like the idea of the test.

Yep, says good things about Rogers program...

Cheers,
Backov

I have no problem with it but when it comes to paying out on it and that acount gets flagged for fraud it will not get paid.

Basically if 100% of the trials cancel before they go active most of the time its fraud.

It happens once in a while where a webmaster tries to fuck us but we get alot of webmasters testing us to see if the joins show up.

Our stats work like this Joins are real time and hits are updated every 20 min.

we have never shaved we make our money off the exits and cross sells. so I'm not worried

But I agree with testing the sponsers and seeing who makes you the most at the end of the day aside from conversions and high payouts.

And if a sponsor shaves that only makes it better for me.:thumbsup

And I hope if for some reason we don't catch this test you guys will be honest with me.

Very cool idea.

Im too lazy to participate... but I would be really interested in seeing the end results.

I hope you guys go through with it! :thumbsup

Here's the thing, there's all sorts of ways a shaving routine could work.. At least one has been mentioned already.. Some more that come to mind

1 - If the trial cancels the first day, shave it. (Sales show up in a block later, cancelled first day trials don't) Some programs would consider this perfectly ethical. Solution - don't cancel the trial in the first day as a rule.

2 - First X amount of sales or days the shave is off, this it to get the "wow, what a great sponsor!" factor going.. I know at least 2 sponsors (big ones) that work this way. No proof of course, except that making a new account and changing your links "magically" brings your conversion ratio back up.

3 - Only shave high volume accounts.. If you're making 50 signups plus a day, what's 5 shaved? Most webmasters would never be able to notice with that volume of traffic.

I guess what I'm saying is, this trial will probably only catch the really dumb-ass shavers.. Which is better than nothing.

Cheers,
Backov

nice idea
very nice...

:thumbsup

What i have noticed if a webmaster is sending me 50 joins a day normally they are a sponsor or a whale that is not frauding the system. So there is no need to shave unless that sponsor has worked a shave mechanism to profit in there system.

its the little guys who send 5-10 a day that normally try to fraud you with multipal acounts. and all the trials cancel in the first 3 days. and there conversions are always a set number like 1/400

It should be easy to test sponsors without them knowing.

I'm sure you guys will figure out away to catch the shavers.
Good luck!

Great suggestion !

I think that it's best not to post here the date when the test starts and to run two or more sessions of this kind of test

for example : one in the beggining of October , then in the end etc., then wait one month and then again.

:thumbsup

Design?

Sure, if you need anything.

:stoned <i><font color="green">beyond belief.</i></font>

Excellent.

Ok, can I get some suggestions on which programs should definitely be considered for the first run?

Also, if I can get 5 to 10 more people in on this, there should be no reason why we cant have this thing running by the end of the week.

Again, I will personally cover the cost of every trial of everyone who participates.

[email protected]

Great idea Labret, I cant wait to see the results.
make sure ya test maxcash & stiffycash

Don't forget to include Ars :(

Absolutely true...works amazingly with a certain sponsor

Off getting a new account...

:Graucho

You should test

Maxcash
ARS
Sic
Nastydollars
CEN
FlyntDigital
Topbucks
Silvercash

Mostly all the ones that pay per sign up
:2 cents:

FD has jettis stats

what about freefreeprogram.com don't leave the pornkings out.:winkwink:

Definitely need to check Nasty on a larger scale. Although I already know what the results would (or should) be...

Very good idea [Labret]
However, I agree with what Backov said.

You are very unlikely to catch a large shaving sponsor. Unless you have the participation of someone with a massive amount of traffic, i.e. the exit traffic from another sponsor, an extended period of time, and the sponsor is fairly unsophisticated in their approach to shaving.

I would add to Backov?s statements that said sponsor would probably "smooth" the shaving over time. That way they could adjust ratios to keep people happy and making a certain amount of money per click or unique visitor sent. The sponsor knows what their magic ratio numbers are for their business model to be profitable. They also know the maximum amount that they can afford for each of those ratios so they can remain profitable.

I.E. [X trials | X conversions to joins | X rebills | X upsells | X from "rejoins"]
=> X amount per unique max per each ?class? of webmaster.

With the knowledge of the maximum payout rates, the sponsor could aggregate the data from individual affiliates and create a systematic approach of shaving each ?class? of webmaster. Whales convert a such and such for joins, conversion and rebills, upsells etc. Smaller webmasters at such and such etc..

By smoothing the shaving over time, the sponsor could average the joins over time to pay out a specific average click to certain accounts, or even whole "classes." The sponsor knows how much they will be able to pay for each unique from each "class," it is only a matter of when they will pay out the money.

The other important note is that each sponsor may have a certain ?honeypot? that they shave. The third exit pop-up chain has no affiliate links randomly during your traffic. How many of us actually go through and check the chained consoles? It is impossible to check every single unique visit.

Not to sound discouraging....
Frank W. brings up an important point involving Game Theory.

Essentially, you should start by constructing the best ways to shave different types webmasters. Then devise ways to defeat the those systems of shaving. Hopefully, that eliminates the most obvious systems of shaving. The higher the barrier to devise a system of shaving, the less likely sponsors are to shave.

Your group can probably discourage quite a few smaller and mid-tier sponsors from shaving, by modeling how sponsors _would_ shave, and then devising a methodology to test sponsors over an extended period of time say 6 months.

Definitely keep the data private for an extended period of time say 6 months, as that turns up the heat. Also, a few "trusted" people should hold the final assumptions that will be made in regards to testing the sponsors. That way 3 of you hold the keys, and the rest are sheep who are told to "buy here."

That keeps the sponsors from implanting people to illicit information =}

Hope my ramblings make sense. As this is a good topic.

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Here are my thoughts...

1. Do you accept payment for a "review" ? Maybe to keep it clean we should do an independent poll (not on GFY).
2. If this is not an ongoing test -- I don't see the use. I'm going to assume that most shavers are not on all the time -- and not on for all affiliates -- especially in the first week or so of sending traffic. Lets get some professional input from real programers that have coded shavers...
3. Are you only testing trial programs?
4. Why do you care? If you do care about X program -- why not test it yourself... Or is your goal to make a suspected-dishonest program honest again?
5. I think using a bot is a bad idea -- I'm sure you can spare a 100 crap hits for a test...
6. What if the sponsor claims that somebody signed up with Browser X that did not track cookie Z correctly... You need to make sure that the testers have cookies turned on, etc. for the audit to be accurate...
7. Try to get testers with different ISP's and different countries... A good way to shave would be to shave by ISP or by country...

I think it's a good idea -- but like Exxxotica I'm pretty lazy -- maybe I'll help out in round #2 if it's for a program that I think is worth reviewing :) I have some suggestions but I don't want to do anything out of taste in public LOL...

Maybe we should target affiliates' accounts that suspect shaving... Like if webmaster XYZ is converting like 1:3000 and he's going to drop the program anyway because it sucks -- this would be a "more perfect" opportunity to crank up our shave test... For example I tested some traffic on Big Players -- I made $50 off 1 trial right away (duh) -- but after about more hits I didn't make any more sales... great opportunity to do some testing at that point -- not like I'm going to keep using the program anyway.

Great post IMX..

Now, here's my assertion (based on nothing but personal impressions):

Most sponsors aren't that sophisticated. Sure, they know their financials, but even the biggest probably have pretty basic shave systems. It requires a VERY smart programmer/designer to come up with a good design for your idea of a shaving system, and no offense to any salaried progammers out there, most just aren't that good.

I on the other hand, could write a shave system so good, no one would ever catch it.. (Kidding, kidding, stop icqing me!)

So, I expect that a well organized test WILL catch some shavers. But we will miss the more sophisticated ones, and there's not much we can do about that. Again, as I said before, some is better than none. And if we come up with some good rules of thumb of things to avoid, we should be good.

Now if someone can just come up with a system to find our "moles". ;>

Cheers,
Backov

Exactly -- if I was going to shave -- that is how I would do it... Keep everything smooth and nobody will complain about shaving... Even if a program is not shaving -- it's better to have the signups drip in smoothly... any 0 signup day will put a webmaster in a panic.

Or you could have indicators for traffic fluctuations (like sudden drop in traffic = no shave -- sudden increase in traffic = no shave... steady gain or steady loss = unattentive webmaster = shave.


I feel you -- and maybe this is why we should target affiliate accounts of webmasters that already assume they are being shaved... Because the most obvious way to shave would be on some kind of rotation system. On the other hand -- if you assume in a game such as this there are an unlimited # of ways to shave a webmaster -- such a "construction" -- in your own words -- is most likely doomed by being misdirected.

---

In the end all the dribble that is coming out of our brains is a waste of bandwich... You're better off going with your gut instincts and trusting your homeys.

I've seen some probs with TB's system counting...
bad programming? Be nice to know. I'm not saying that
they do, but I've seen numbers change significantly in
less than an hour.

Why don't we save some time and hire some spies -- or pay for some double-agents...

Let's do some Cloak and Dagger shit...

I agree with everything you have said.

This was just an idea that came to me while sitting on the pot. I figured I would throw the idea out and see what happens.

The advanced shavers will never be caught. But the vast majority of shavers are not that bright.

I really like the idea of sacrificing someone elses already established account.

As for the hitbot, I figure I could just buy some chinese 404 traffic for dirt cheap and use that for a buffer. Not like it would convert and skew the results.

And no, I have no particular interest in any program. I dont work in straight so I am not out on any kind of witch hunt. I just thought it would be an interesting idea. And just imagine the drama. Oh lordy.

I don't think it will be difficult getting volunteers for this...

*snicker*

Unfortunately Its probably not feasible to turn this concept into a long term 'watchdog' program... that would be the best possible outcome IMHO.

Kind of like The Statistician but covering shavers: Just look at the chart and see who's got a clean record.

I guess you could get a covert team to do spot checks once a quarter or something and publish the results....

The only way I can see for something like this to be sustainable is with those prepaid credit cards I have heard of.. Ya know, the ones you buy in the 7/11 or whatever that come with X amount of dollars on them.. If you could keep buying those, you could do the watchdog group.. If you couldn't, everyone in the group would be blackflagged and you'd never be able to do it again. ;>

Cheers,
Backov

Backov--
Thanks.
I trust your judgment.

We can then assume that the most sophisticated methods of shaving are either:
1.) Nearly impossible to catch with small sampling methods.
2.) Too expensive for sponsors to execute.

That leaves the rather unsophisticated methods.

TheFly--
I agree, you could get caught up in trying to determine an infinite number of unsophisticated shaving methods; however, I believe if a group brainstormed over a number of days some definite patterns would begin to emerge.

Once the patterns of shaving methodologies are charted, the group could actually determine a finite number of unsophisticated shaving methods. With assistance from some great programmers, like yourself, the group could determine the least expensive ways of executing the shaving via an automated or semi-automated system.

Then test the easiest ways of shaving up to the more complex.

In fact, things like the ?exit-console? shave could be tested without the use of ccs.

As you stated earlier, the test wouldn?t provide anything but more arguments.
(Our system has trouble tracking non-cookied Macintosh users on Wednesdays.)

But Who doesn?t like a good knock-down drag-out? LOL...

Yarr...I was just about to say, we are better off trying to socially engineering our way into to the innards of the shav-o-matic.

Us> Hey I?m the programmer who hooked-up your affiliate system
Sponsor> Huh?
Us> You know they guy who did the custom work for you.
Sponsor> Hmm...
Us> Yeah, I hooked-up the ?razor?
Sponsor> Oh yeah...

-Or-

We devise a simple test:

We throw the CEOs from programs we want to test into a pool in Vegas.
If the sponsor swims, their program shaves.
If the sponsor drowns, their program does not shave.


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