I have no doubt they could do it.

About their exports, if the dollar goes down the U.S. will still have to import a big part of the products it consumes (a world were the U.S. is self sufficient is pure wishfull thinking). Who will they buy from with their cheap dollars?

From however sells cheap products, i.e. China.


BTW, spam me with sponsors paying in euros

:1orglaugh:1orglaugh:1orglaugh

Great now the economy is unstable because of me?

This if course assumes that our economy is unstable, which is untrue.

Core inflation doesn't measure food and energy, because the fed has no control over price stability in those sectors.
Those are things people can't live without and will buy no matter what the fed does. If a head of lettuce costs $10 there's nothing the fed can do to discourage people from buying it, they need it to survive.

The published headline inflation rate does take food and energy into account however, and it is also very very low.

PROVE to me that the US is printing money to stabalize ourselves, and that we're "paying interest to the parties that are printing the money"

Give me a real source, something that has been fact checked and scrutinized.....don't give me a link to a blogger who wants me to buy gold, give me some real facts.

If what you say is true it shouldn't take you long to prove it with reputable sources.

The US of A is seeing problems for a long time. And there is only 1 solution. And that is the crash from the dollar. How else u get away a debt of 894405552729981 dollar. How are u all gonna pay for that? And every single day the debt rises whit 1.4 billion. And its getting worse and worse because u must pay intrest and that would be fine if u pay your own citizens the money but 50% of the debt is hold in a foreign country.

And the people that are saying yes but china must loan us that money so we can buy shit. Why china does not loan it to their 1 billion people in the poor part of china let them consume?

Its quite simple if China does it the US of A will be broke. Europe will be almost down but can survive. And china will be quite good.

Thats because:

And of course, on the statistics, people don?t understand the way government statistics work . And most people will concede that politicians lie. They lie to get elected ? everybody knows that ? they say what they have to say, so I don?t know why people assume that once they get elected they stop lying. I mean that?s all they do. Once you get elected your job is to stay in office. And the way politicians stay in office, is to present a rosy scenario. And so what these guys do is they constantly change the way that economic statistics are calculated so that they can give a better result; so the politicians can point up to these dumbed up statistics as evidence that things have gotten better while they have been in office.

So they constantly change and redefine how things are measured. So the unemployment rate, for example, today, is calculated far differently than it was in the past; if they calculated unemployment during the Great Depression the way we do it now, they would probably have had very little unemployment then either. They calculate GDP differently. There are a lot of things calculated as part of GNP that 5 years ago, 10 years ago, 20 years ago would not have been counted. Everything has changed, so when they compare a number today to one 20 years ago, it?s completely irrelevant comparisons because they?re not doing it the same way.

And then of course, when you adjust it all for inflation the reality is back in the 1950s a guy had a job, he can support a wife and a large family ? maybe 4 or 5 kids; his wife didn?t have to work; his kids all went to college and none of them had to borrow money; and he saved for his retirement ? and he did all that on a middle-class income and a high school education, if that. Today, you need two paychecks to support a family, both of them need to have gone to college, and they can maybe have one or two kids and that?s it. Beyond that, they can?t even afford it ? and they still have no savings. With all this booming prosperity how can it be that a middle-class family is so much worse off today than they were in 1950"

from:
http://www.financialsense.com/transc...2007/0310.html

you should belive in everything what goverment say you .....

so why they stopped to show M3, while 99% of countries in world still publish it?
:1orglaugh
Yes, hyperinflationary Zimbwawe dont publish it too

What is you background in Lenny2 ?
 

If you need an education at least to ask educated questions then go get one... I'm sure no one will fault you... besides your the one who is not giving out sources on why what I'm saying is false or even to back up your statements...

I have no problem with being wrong in anything... however, you got to give me proof and not just mouth, like what your doing...

No one wants 20 or 30 links on what people think but rather what people know as being factual...


O bump...

.

The current US economy is... maybe not yet "unstable", but is a massive problem where there is little prospect of getting a balanced economy back for... at least 10+ years.

The country has massive debts pro rata population - the highest in the world. Borrowings from other countries are approximately $10-$13 billion/day (including loans from China of around $3 bill/day). If you look at the US markets over a five year term, they are among the worst performers, returning less than 3.5% annually. There has been a growing balance of trade deficit since the late 60's. 46-48% of the national debt is owing to other nations.

This scenario is obviously unsustainable and sure gives good reason to think the economy is unstable. Any external action of a creditor can severely affect the dollar - not a good situation.

Some years back, then Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan began making public noises about how the CPI overstated inflation. Where the fixed-basket of goods approach would measure the cost of steak, year after year, Mr. Greenspan argued that if steak went up in price, people would buy more hamburger meat, mitigating the increase in their cost of living. The fact that switching the CPI concept to a substitution-based basket of market goods from a fixed-basket violated the original intent, purpose and concept of the CPI, never seemed to be a concern to those in Washington. Artificially reducing reported CPI inflation would have a variety of benefits, beginning with reduction of the budget deficit due to the cutting of cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security payments.

Accordingly, geometric weighting was introduced to the CPI reporting methodology, which had the effect of mimicking a substitution basis. Since the revised CPI still did not show as low an inflation rate as a fully substitution-based index would, Mr. Greenspan began focusing the Fed's inflation targeting and measurement on the inflation rate used to deflate personal consumption expenditure (PCE) in the GDP. Such was a substitution-based measure.

More recently, the BLS introduced the Chained CPI-U (C-CPI-U) as an experimental substitution-based inflation index, which closes follows PCE inflation.

Yet, as oil prices began their current uptrend, substitution-based inflation reporting still was not low enough for the former Fed Chairman, as he began embracing the concept of "core" inflation, inflation net of food and energy price changes. Eliminating bothersome price increases in energy and food products -- such as seen with oil at present -- would make the Fed's job of containing reported inflation all the easier.

In general, if a government economic measure does match common public experience, it has little use outside of academia or the spin-doctoring rooms of the Fed and Wall Street. The two SGS measures included in the above table have gimmicked methodological changes removed from the reporting so as to reflect more accurately the common public experience as embodied by the post-World War II CPI.

from:
http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/data

Bump... ^^

.

Im gonna go out on a limb here and say that I don't think you have a firm grasp on macroecomonics.

Lets see China cripple themselves
They'll really love the food riots they'll have with the millions of their citizens they will be putting out of work.

I cant prove anything as Im no treasury insider but heres some of Ron Pauls articles on the subject of US inflation...

http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul323.html

http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul163.html

http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul156.html

http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul162.html

http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul354.html

http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul334.html

Im not bored enough to fact check any of his articles, I leave it up to his haters which are many, so far the man seems to check out.



and if anybodies really bored check out how some of his predictions are shaping up, especially the currency/economy stuff.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul29.html

Not sure why seemingly lots of people talk about changing dollars into euros instead of pounds sterling; you get a higher interest and it's historically a stable currency.

Teomaxxx, what is your 2-3 year prediction of how the dollar will perform vs the euro?

At last .. :thumbsup

This thread has gotten ridiculous.

Now I've got people telling me the U.S. economy is gonna collapse, and that my arguments don't make any sense because I can't disprove a negative.

Meanwhile the best proof I've seen of these allegations are articles written by Ron Paul!?!?!?
Ron Paul!?!?!?!?

I know he has alot of fans here but something written by him isn't exactly considered academic, considering his purpose for the paper is to get himself elected, and I seriously doubt he would ever publish a paper that conflicted with his already established views.

At some point you've got to realize you're talking to a brick wall, and the America haters (and gold speculators) are never going to listen to reason.
So me and all of my American dollars are leaving this thread. You kids have fun.

Lenny2 you never told us your profession !
 

Well Mr. Doug E gave you a professional well know individual's input in this matter... and made sure to give such links to you just to humor you... I'm glad someone here had the energy to answer your statement:

"Give me a real source, something that has been fact checked and scrutinized.....don't give me a link to a blogger who wants me to buy gold, give me some real facts." You did say to give you sources...

No ones knows what will happen if China pulls out, however if they do it will effect the US dollar plus a whole lot more... You don't need to have people with IQs and or DQs that are 2-3 times that of a normal as to tell you that it would be bad for the US overall ...

Lenny2 you have an intelligence level below normal and your putting down people who actually do keep up to date.. perhaps if you did some reading or had an open mind, at the very least, you most likely would be able to sound half intelligent

Just my :2 cents:,


.

to those who seem to be cheering the idea of this along, one thought to ponder

how much of your business comes from the US and if there is a major crash do you think people will still have all the disposable cash to pay for porn?

what are you talking about?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_debt

or is that not considered american to your argument?

not to mention, in compared to americans, chinese don't believe in debt on a basic level right?

where almost everyone, down to 18 years of age, has some sort of debt..

that's "buying power" alright lol

Furthermore, i believe one of the 'theories' of the invasion of Iraq stems from their use of the euro.. i believe i saw a rumour somewhere stating Iran was trying for the same thing

Yes jobs athome are a great thing. I am tired of plants closing around my town.

Good point - Pounds Sterling is performing better than the Euro and no reason to think this will change in the short term (short term being around 5 years). Predictions so far, estimate both the Pound and Euro will increase around 4-5% before the year end due to relatively healthy economic results.

Probably over a longer term - tho who knows? - the Euro will gain more strength. There are several factors, some major, which could contribute to this - among them, industries and natural resource producers seeking a more stable currency base for their product - particularly oil. Overall the Euro may probably supercede GBP or be a more secure currency base.

PS For what it's worth - predict over the next 2-3 years the dollar will drop at least 10% against the Euro, forgetting any natural increases the Euro may have. Depending on other actions by the US govt, external creditors and producers possibly moving away from the dollar as a currency base, - this can be far more dramatic and volatile. The US economic problem is going to be around for a decade ahead at least - there is no easy instant remedy.

China is moving itself into position to take over the entire Planet. Which would suck because Mandarin is one hard fucking language to learn and the Chinese are butt-fucking the atmosphere.

I'm guessing those cheering it on are not making much money. The US dollar tanking is bad news for everyone in this business.

:) Na.. China has been following a path of economic development within that country for a few decades. This was something which was "necessary" for sustainability of a large population and many other reasons. Economic development is sure not limited to China - the whole of the western Pacific rim and Asia is on target to be the largest economic powerhouse the world has ever seen.

If you think pollution of the atmosphere is a Chinese problem, the US has lead in this area for decades as the worst 'offender'. But agree - we have seen nothing yet, China and other Asian countries will have a major impact on the environment. China in particular, is well-aware of this and diverting billions into both projects within China and in other countries where environmental aspects can be protected/addressed - but, doubt this can match future economic development.

PS And damn - won't be learning Mandarin either :winkwink:

Doubt anyone is actually "cheering" the idea juz. This stuff can cause both the US and many other countries serious "ripples" - far beyond the earnings of webmasters.

The US dollar already has little value (relatively) against most major currencies and probably even less in the short term. So, it may be worth asking now when you get a $5K check from a sponsor, - what is it really worth? 2,471 in Sterling or 3,650 in Euros.

A paysite subscription of 29.95 in Sterling is $60. A paysite sub at 29.95 in dollars is eqivalent to 15 GBP - a silly cheap level of any website with content from a UK perspective. There may be a time when the extra gain from not transacting in dollars does not affect the bottom line.

In some ways the dollar can be seen as screwing the adult industry - basically by "giving away" cheap website access.

There is a more positive flipside to this if prices were in eg Euros, but using the current "popular price levels" of dollars - eg instead of $29.95, this is 29.95 Euros. This would satisfy most international webmasters and US webmasters would gain considerably more when converted to dollars.

It's only my :2 cents:, but suspect this is the way online ecommerce will go - especially if the dollar depreciates further. A few processors already have multi-currency charging facilities - there is no reason on earth why webmasters should not be applying the Big Mac index to website subscriptions and having geo signup pages to display the local currency.

you really dont get it, none here hate America or American Dollars. Everyone would like to see them as strong as possible, because we would be direct recipets of its benefits too. We are just stating facts.
In 7 years, USD depreciated against my country currency (CZK) whole 50% down.
Thats fucking 50% buying power down, if its adjusted it by inflation here, it could be even 60%.
Gold wouldnt rise 3x times in few years, if everything was ok.


If you belive in goverment statistics as you stated here, read this:

".....
Williams says that regarding ?what used to be called the GNP but is now widely followed as the GDP, (and) the CPI, and the employment numbers, all have had biases built into them that result in overstating economic growth and understating inflation - - both of which are admirable political goals."

Williams has analyzed and compared the way in which the unemployment figure was historically calculated versus the way it is calculated today. He concluded that if it ?were calculated (today) the way it was during the Great Depression, it is now running at about 12%." As well, he says, "Real CPI is now running at about 8%. And the real GDP is probably in contraction." Clearly, the government?s methodologies that generated these bogus numbers are all designed to paint a more favorable picture of the economy and the markets than is the reality

He explains why contemporary unemployment numbers are bogus. Today, the unemployment number does not include those unemployed who have been discouraged and out of work for more than a year. So they are taken out of the work force completely automatically. This results in knocking about 5 million unemployed out of the broader measures of unemployment.

Thus, unemployment is about 50% higher than is commonly alleged. And thus, "Today unemployment is really up around 12%."

These distortions have very real, and usually adverse, consequences for citizens. Consider, Williams says, the methodology developed several years ago by Mike Boskin and Alan Greenspan for generating the Consumer Price Index. In their (erroneous in Williams' and Deepcaster's) view the CPI was supposedly overstating inflation so they "fixed" it from its prior condition of (allegedly) overstating inflation.

And here is how they did it:

Originally, the whole purpose of the CPI was to "measure the change in the cost of a fixed basket of goods over time." But Boskin and Greenspan said that we should allow for substitution because people can buy hamburger when the price of steak goes up.

But, of course, "if you allow substitutions you aren't measuring a constant standard of living, you're measuring the cost of survival." Williams correctly concludes.

But the effect of this statistical chicanery is very real and very adverse to, for example, retirees because the CPI was, and is, being used to adjust Social Security payments to compensate for increases in the cost of living.

Today, as a result of the Boskin-Greenspan "fix," it understates those increases and therefore under-compensates retirees for those costs.

In a similar manipulatory vein, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) during the Clinton Administration constructed and began to employ a weighting regimen whereby if the price of something went up it automatically got a lower weight in calculating the CPI, but if it went down in price it automatically got a higher weight. The result, of course, was, and still is, to further shaft those people (like Social Security recipients) whose income was dependent upon the CPI measure.

"If the same CPI were used today as it was used when Jimmy Carter was President, Social Security checks would be 70% higher," Williams dramatically emphasizes.

But perhaps the most outrageous aspect of the government's numbers-manufacturing business has to do with its using "hedonic pricing." ("Hedonics" is the study of how to create pleasurable sensations.) Hedonic pricing is the practice of creating pleasant (to the government manipulators and to a credulous public) pricing.

Using its hedonic method, the BLS says the price really doesn't go up for a product that has "improved" in quality because the consumer is getting greater benefit or pleasure from it. Therefore, if computer power increases by a factor of 10, but the sticker price of computers has only increased by a factor of 2, then the hedonically adjusted price would be much lower for CPI calculation purposes even though the computer is actually twice as expensive (in dollars actually paid) as it was years earlier.

Williams also notes that sometimes data manipulation attempts are overt, such as the time during the administration of George Bush I, in which a computer industry official was approached and asked to boost his sales reports to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Williams is careful to point out that manipulation is a bipartisan phenomenon.

In the Clinton Administration, the manipulation resulted from the CPI numbers being re-set using weighting. "They basically reduced the number of people being surveyed in the inner cities (which had more unemployment (Ed.)) and then claimed they replaced them statistically. But the effect was immediate. You saw a drop in all the unemployment measures that would normally be influenced by inner-city surveying. Thus, of course, the statistical replacement reflected a lot less unemployment than actually existed."

The adverse effect of this "numbers manufacturing" extends far beyond its adverse affects on any particular group such as retirees. If someone relies on these buggy statistics and invests in the stock market based on happy economic reports, they may well lose the money because of that reliance. Williams says "I am?disgusted by both parties at this point, especially because we have no one of substance taking on very severe issues, like the trade deficit and federal deficit that are going to create terrible times for people in this country if they are not addressed."

Williams focuses on what he considers, and what Deepcaster considers, "so dangerous that if it isn't addressed - - and I am afraid maybe that even if it is addressed - - that it has gone past hope of repair; and that is the fiscal condition of the Federal Government."

Typical statements of the budgetary condition of the government (by whatever administration is in power) do not include accrued pension and retiree benefit liabilities. Certainly this is not a small omission - - and usually results in differences between the official numbers and the real numbers.

Williams notes "where the official federal deficit in 2004 was reported at about $412 billion and the GAAP-based deficit was around $616 billion they said that if you added the net present valuing of the under-funding of Social Security and Medicare, the one-year deficit in 2004 was $11.1 trillion."

Of course, foreigners are financing most of this deficit spending. Williams notes that last year alone, foreign investors bought enough federal debt to cover all the debt issuance of the U.S. Treasury. But we have no assurance that this will continue. Indeed, once this foreign buying even begins to slow, U.S. interest rates must rise to finance our debt, the interest costs on which are already running at nearly $3 billion per day.




Finally, Williams talks about where we are today. Indeed, he says we are already in a recession. "What I found is that if you adjust the real GDP numbers that the government releases for the myriad revisions and redefinitions?you'll find that there is a happy overstatement of growth of about 3% on a year-over-year basis." The problem very simply is this - - the consumer is the primary driving force behind economic activity and the only ways that consumers can fuel consumption growth are through rising income, debt extension, or savings liquidation, that's where he gets his cash.

But the consumer is not really seeing any income growth. ?Now this is where the playing around with numbers really gets good.? We've already talked about hedonics and all the other manipulations of the CPI. But they all pale next to the impact of imputations in the GDP that are an outgrowth of the theoretical structure of the national income accounts.

?Any benefit a person receives has an imputed component?when the government puts all of it's imputations into income, its growth generally remains positive and has very little relation to reality."

How do we know when the end is near? Deepcaster and Williams agree on the answer. "If I were looking for one factor to signal the onset of some really serious problems, I would watch the dollar. If you start to see a sharp sell-off, or if the selling starts to pick up a little steam and begins to look like a panic, or you start to hear talk of an Asian country dumping a little extra in the way of dollars, it will be a sign of really bad times to come."

exactly, if USD depreciated a bit more, it would be really painful for us too.
Maybe even more then for US webmasters.
Heck its already painful

Bump for great content !

:thumbsup

.

It's the beginning of the end and I'm glad I've been stocking all those MREs, water, ammo, weapons and tin foil hats in my bomb shelter.

Just remember to reinforce the borders in Panama and keep out all the "illegal aliens" heading south :winkwink::thumbsup

Its really hard to say, there could be two scenarios:
1. Better one, if everything goes slightly, and I hope it will, it could be like 10-15% down more.
2. Not good one, the current mortage crisis could spill into the rest of US economy and cause hard recession, so they will then for sure lower interest rates, which would mean in the final effect much lower USD against EUR.
Also there are these questions like China dumping bonds, Kuwait and Iran going to charge EUR for oil and Russia charge rubles for Oil next year.

I really hope that it will go by first way as everyone will be harmed by second way.