Gingrich Predicts Clinton-Obama Ticket - Page 2 - GoFuckYourself.com

escorpio · 07-30-2007, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorB

No way a Clinton/Obamma ticket wins in 08. So they win NY and Ill which both almost always vote Dem anyways. Big deal. For Dems to win they need to win some southern states. Let's see Hillary and a black dude. Which southern states are going to vote for that combo?

People that live in Democratic strongholds don't really understand just how redneck this country really is. Here's a map of the 2004 election. The one that re-elected Bush. Would any Democrats that think a Clinton/Obama ticket has a chance of winning please point out which counties they think will change to blue because a woman and a black guy are running?

kane · 07-30-2007, 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by escorpio

People that live in Democratic strongholds don't really understand just how redneck this country really is. Here's a map of the 2004 election. The one that re-elected Bush. Would any Democrats that think a Clinton/Obama ticket has a chance of winning please point out which counties they think will change to blue because a woman and a black guy are running?

You forget that the election is based on the electoral college ( I believe wrongly so but that is another debate for another time.) Kerry, a super liberal senator came within one state, Ohio, of beating Bush in that election.

Also, many of those red areas have very few people in them. Rural areas tend to vote republican. If you add up all the people that live in the red areas and all the people that live in the blue you would find out it is pretty close in number.

kane · 07-30-2007, 01:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorB

No way a Clinton/Obamma ticket wins in 08. So they win NY and Ill which both almost always vote Dem anyways. Big deal. For Dems to win they need to win some southern states. Let's see Hillary and a black dude. Which southern states are going to vote for that combo?

And Edwards/Richardson ticket would win and if Dems had brains they see that and vote Edwards in the primaries.

Lest you forget that Hilary is from Arkansas and when Bill Clinton ran he carried some southern states. She can win some.

Anyone who is 100% sure that a Clinton/Obama ticket can't win doesn't know as much about politics as they might like to think. I'm not saying they will win, but they can.

Here is why:

1. What do we hear every year at election time? We hear that there is no difference in the candidates and it is one rich white guy or the other rich white guy. Well a woman and a black guy are at least a change from that. That change could help to invigorate the far left which often times ends up not voting.

2. Hilary won't make the same mistake that Gore made in 2000. She will saddle Bill up and use him as much as possible. Love or hate Bill Clinton you have to admit that he might be one of the greatest campaigners in the history of politics. Bill can help them win some of the more moderate southern states or at least help them win some of the more right leaning battle ground states.

3. There will be no major changes on the political landscape before the election (baring some kind of major event) so we will still be a red state/blue state country which means the election, again, will come down to just a few states. In that type of a race anyone has a chance.

4. In the last election it came down to Ohio. John Kerry is considered by many to be one of, if not the most, liberal senator in the country. If a guy that is that liberal can come withing one state of knocking out a sitting president it says a lot for the countries state of mind.

5. The country is in the midst of a full on republican back lash. I'm not saying the democrats are doing a bang up job, but this happens all the time. When one party is in power for a while they get fat, bloated and start believing their own bullshit and eventually it catches up to them and the people want a change. Any republican candidate will have to spend a decent amount of time proving that they are not Bush. Many people will see any Republican candidate as "4 more years of Bush" and that will hurt them.

6. Iraq. Every day more and more people start believing we need to leave Iraq. Both Hilary and Obama have said they will pull us out of there and end the war. The republican party got us into the war, so whatever candidate they have will have to bare that burden and it will be a heavy one if the candidate has previously come out in support of the war.

7. The religious right is angry with the republican party. They feel used. They were promised a lot and were given very little. They feel like they were taken advantage of and, like it or not, they control the republican party. The only possible candidate they will wholly support is Fred Thompson. They don't like the others, but may support them to a degree simply because they dislike Hilary more. That said, any candidate other than Thompson (and maybe even him) won't be able to count of the wholesale support of the religious right and that will hurt them badly.

There are other indicators, but I don't want to turn this post into an essay

I'm not saying a Hilary/Obama ticket will win. I'm not saying I want them to win. I'm simply saying that if you look at the landscape of the country and the recent happenings on the political scene it points to the reality that they can win.

Young · 07-30-2007, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kane

You forget that the election is based on the electoral college

beat me to it.

this site is running like shit today.

escorpio · 07-30-2007, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kane

You forget that the election is based on the electoral college ( I believe wrongly so but that is another debate for another time.) Kerry, a super liberal senator came within one state, Ohio, of beating Bush in that election.

Didn't forget that at all. It's an electroal college map broken down by county rather than state.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kane

Also, many of those red areas have very few people in them. Rural areas tend to vote republican. If you add up all the people that live in the red areas and all the people that live in the blue you would find out it is pretty close in number.

Not close enough to have won the election for Kerry. The rural people that voted Republican in the last election are not going to switch to Democrat because a woman and a black guy are running.

Young · 07-30-2007, 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by escorpio

Didn't forget that at all. It's an electroal college map

How is this an electoral college map?

I don't see a key that shows the weight of each states rep'd vote...

Alot of those little red squares don't mean much in the overall grand scheme of things

Voter turn out in the red states is ALOT less then in the blue states. Just look at the popular votes.

escorpio · 07-30-2007, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kane

Lest you forget that Hilary is from Arkansas and when Bill Clinton ran he carried some southern states. She can win some.

Anyone who is 100% sure that a Clinton/Obama ticket can't win doesn't know as much about politics as they might like to think. I'm not saying they will win, but they can.

Here is why:

1. What do we hear every year at election time? We hear that there is no difference in the candidates and it is one rich white guy or the other rich white guy. Well a woman and a black guy are at least a change from that. That change could help to invigorate the far left which often times ends up not voting.

2. Hilary won't make the same mistake that Gore made in 2000. She will saddle Bill up and use him as much as possible. Love or hate Bill Clinton you have to admit that he might be one of the greatest campaigners in the history of politics. Bill can help them win some of the more moderate southern states or at least help them win some of the more right leaning battle ground states.

3. There will be no major changes on the political landscape before the election (baring some kind of major event) so we will still be a red state/blue state country which means the election, again, will come down to just a few states. In that type of a race anyone has a chance.

4. In the last election it came down to Ohio. John Kerry is considered by many to be one of, if not the most, liberal senator in the country. If a guy that is that liberal can come withing one state of knocking out a sitting president it says a lot for the countries state of mind.

5. The country is in the midst of a full on republican back lash. I'm not saying the democrats are doing a bang up job, but this happens all the time. When one party is in power for a while they get fat, bloated and start believing their own bullshit and eventually it catches up to them and the people want a change. Any republican candidate will have to spend a decent amount of time proving that they are not Bush. Many people will see any Republican candidate as "4 more years of Bush" and that will hurt them.

6. Iraq. Every day more and more people start believing we need to leave Iraq. Both Hilary and Obama have said they will pull us out of there and end the war. The republican party got us into the war, so whatever candidate they have will have to bare that burden and it will be a heavy one if the candidate has previously come out in support of the war.

7. The religious right is angry with the republican party. They feel used. They were promised a lot and were given very little. They feel like they were taken advantage of and, like it or not, they control the republican party. The only possible candidate they will wholly support is Fred Thompson. They don't like the others, but may support them to a degree simply because they dislike Hilary more. That said, any candidate other than Thompson (and maybe even him) won't be able to count of the wholesale support of the religious right and that will hurt them badly.

There are other indicators, but I don't want to turn this post into an essay

I'm not saying a Hilary/Obama ticket will win. I'm not saying I want them to win. I'm simply saying that if you look at the landscape of the country and the recent happenings on the political scene it points to the reality that they can win.

You do make a strong argument but I'm still not convinced. I'm pretty pessimistic after spending some time in the midwest last year.

escorpio · 07-30-2007, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Young

How is this an electoral college map?

I don't see a key that shows the weight of each states rep'd vote...

Alot of those little red squares don't mean much in the overall grand scheme of things

Voter turn out in the red states is ALOT less then in the blue states. Just look at the popular votes.

You're correct, it's not an electoral college map of the last election. But I think it's very significant to realize how many counties voted a republican majority. Which red states do you think will turn blue if Clinton/Obama run?

Young · 07-30-2007, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by escorpio

You're correct, it's not an electoral college map of the last election. But I think it's very significant to realize how many counties voted a republican majority. Which red states do you think will turn blue if Clinton/Obama run?

Not many.

But the beauty of the electoral college is that only a few swing states TRULY matter.

Utah, Wyoming and Idaho all look good in red...but Massachusetts alone outweighs any Republican votes that are likely to come out of those states.

The race is obviously too early to call but you guys are placing way too much emphasis on these red states. I mean the popular vote is always extremely close...but if i was too look at that map I would think otherwise.

tony286 · 07-30-2007, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by escorpio

You're correct, it's not an electoral college map of the last election. But I think it's very significant to realize how many counties voted a republican majority. Which red states do you think will turn blue if Clinton/Obama run?

You cant go by that,look at all the republicans that were voted out last election.

jesse_adultdatingdollars · 07-30-2007, 02:53 PM

Gore for president! The guy has a brain, and he is famous now. He should run for sure.

kane · 07-30-2007, 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by escorpio

You're correct, it's not an electoral college map of the last election. But I think it's very significant to realize how many counties voted a republican majority. Which red states do you think will turn blue if Clinton/Obama run?

Here are a couple of electoral maps from when Bill Clinton ran. 1992 http://www.presidentelect.org/e1992.html and 1996 http://www.presidentelect.org/e1996.html

As you can see he won some southern states. Remember, the Clinton's are from the south and know how to connect with people in that part of the world. In the last election there were 4 southern states where Bush beat Kerry, an uber liberal, by less than 10%. So those states could be in play this next time around.

BradM · 07-30-2007, 04:14 PM

Yeah I pretty much predict a Clinton Obama Ticket.

If NY swings Republican because of Giuliani, it's all over and pointless. So it's going to be very tough for the Dems to win if Rudi gets the Republican ballot.

GregE · 07-30-2007, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorB

You really think Edwards is going to want to be the VP nominee again?

Probably not, but I'm sure either Clinton or Obama can find someone down there who'll deliver at least one or two and maybe more southern states.

stickyfingerz · 07-30-2007, 04:57 PM

Maybe a Mondale Ferraro ticket would do well...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...on%2C_1984

escorpio · 07-30-2007, 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kane

Here are a couple of electoral maps from when Bill Clinton ran. 1992 http://www.presidentelect.org/e1992.html and 1996 http://www.presidentelect.org/e1996.html

As you can see he won some southern states. Remember, the Clinton's are from the south and know how to connect with people in that part of the world. In the last election there were 4 southern states where Bush beat Kerry, an uber liberal, by less than 10%. So those states could be in play this next time around.

Bill Clinton is a white male. I'm not so sure a woman and a black could do the same thing he did. In fact, they may just swing some of those blue southern states to red.

kane · 07-30-2007, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by escorpio

Bill Clinton is a white male. I'm not so sure a woman and a black could do the same thing he did. In fact, they may just swing some of those blue southern states to red.

It really is hard to say. A woman and a black guy on a ticket would be uncharted waters. There are a lot of polls that says the nation claims to be ready for something like this, but how they will vote is another thing all together.

The election is still so far away so many things can happen to swing people one way or another and we still can't discount someone coming out of nowhere and making a splash.

GatorB · 07-30-2007, 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kane

You forget that the election is based on the electoral college ( I believe wrongly so but that is another debate for another time.) Kerry, a super liberal senator came within one state, Ohio, of beating Bush in that election.

I know how elections are run. Yes Kerry ALMOST won OHIO, Gore ALMOST won Florida. You don't get electoral votes for ALMOST. The dem candidates will have to win at least one southern state. Which one will vote for Hillary/Obamma combo.

Kery got 252 electoral votes. He narrowly lost NM by a few thousand votes. Edwards will win those 252 electoral votes anyways. Richardson should bring NM 5 votes to the dem side. That's 257 electoral votes. That means a Edwards/Richardson ticket would be just 13 electoral votes away from victory. S Carolina has 8, N Carolina has 15, Alabama and Louisianna have 9 each. Surely Edwards as the MAIN cadidate could snag two of those. Chances are certainly better than Hillary or Obamma. Also Bush barley won Nevada, Richardson being from the west and Hispanic could pull Nevada for them dems. Also Kerry barely lost Iowa a state Gore won and Edwards is very popular in Iowa.

Quote:

Also, many of those red areas have very few people in them. Rural areas tend to vote republican. If you add up all the people that live in the red areas and all the people that live in the blue you would find out it is pretty close in number.

Doesn't matter total votes don't count. Bush only got 600 more votes than Gore in Florida he got 100% of the electoral votes. Why didn't Kerry win florida if Dems were so mad at Bush just 4 years earlier? There wasn't any fucked-up ballots in Palm Beach. Nader didn't get near the support in 2004 as he did in 2000, yet Kerry lost by 300,000 votes. For whatever reason Bush managed to get a sizeable hispanic vote. Richardson as VP would bring many of those votes back to the dem side. Obamma doesn't help with the black vote because 91% of blacks voted for Kerry in Florida anyways.

Hopefully dems will wake up like they did at the last minute and bail on Hillary adn Obamma like they did on Dean. I suspect though that dems will continue to be ingorant and fail to look at the BIG picture. A sizeable amount of people will NEVER accept a woman as prez let alone Hillary who mnay people HATE with a passion. And even more people will NEVER accpet a black man as Prez. Wake up dems and quit snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

07-30-2007, 02:53 PM	#61
jesse_adultdatingdollars Confirmed User Industry Role: Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: San Diego Posts: 2,197	Gore for president! The guy has a brain, and he is famous now. He should run for sure. __________________ Got Dating Traffic? Contact: Jesse (at) adultdatingdollars.com ICQ: 296775809 or AIM: cabotime21

07-30-2007, 04:14 PM	#63
BradM Confirmed User Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: 1123,6536,5231 Posts: 3,397	Yeah I pretty much predict a Clinton Obama Ticket. If NY swings Republican because of Giuliani, it's all over and pointless. So it's going to be very tough for the Dems to win if Rudi gets the Republican ballot.

07-30-2007, 04:57 PM	#65
stickyfingerz Doin fine Industry Role: Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 24,984	Maybe a Mondale Ferraro ticket would do well... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...on%2C_1984