do you think an Asteroid will hit Earth in the 21st century ?

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  • polish_aristocrat
    Too lazy to set a custom title
    • Jul 2002
    • 40377
    #1

    do you think an Asteroid will hit Earth in the 21st century ?

    anyone here interested a little in this subject?

    from what I know, the chances for a big collision are minimal because they happen once every few millions years, but f.e chances for an impact similar in scale to the Tunguska Event aren't that small.....
    I don't use ICQ anymore.
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    • Dirty Dane
      Sick Fuck
      • Feb 2004
      • 9491
      #2
      Converting the damage of impacts, to risk, the chances of getting killed by asteroids are bigger than in traffic

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        • Ron Bennett
          Confirmed User
          • Oct 2003
          • 1653
          #3
          I worry more about the human made type of falling objects, such as frozen toilet waste from jetliners.

          Ron
          Domagon - Website Management and Domain Name Sales

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            • jact
              Confirmed User
              • Sep 2002
              • 9134
              #4
              It's entirely possible that it can happen at any given moment. We had a very near miss a couple of years ago that we didn't even notice until it would have been far too late. We're only tracking what, 1% of the sky? And even if we do see it, we can't do fuck all about it.
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                • Dirty Dane
                  Sick Fuck
                  • Feb 2004
                  • 9491
                  #5
                  Originally posted by Ron Bennett
                  I worry more about the human made type of falling objects, such as frozen toilet waste from jetliners.

                  Ron

                  Eskimos do not fly

                    Comment

                    • xclusive
                      Too lazy to set a custom title
                      • Apr 2004
                      • 35218
                      #6
                      It will happen when it happens not shit we can do about it, But could be in a minute could be in a thousand years but it will happen.

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                        • free4porn
                          Confirmed User
                          • Jun 2005
                          • 4654
                          #7
                          Hope not but its certainly possible
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                            • donross
                              Confirmed User
                              • Aug 2005
                              • 1295
                              #8
                              damn, if that happens.. that the end of the world..
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                                • fulyngu
                                  Registered User
                                  • Feb 2005
                                  • 63
                                  #9
                                  Funny... I just watched a show today about the Mayan calendar and how it stops on Dec 21, 2012... Hmmm...
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                                    • mikeyddddd
                                      Viva la vulva!
                                      • Mar 2003
                                      • 16557
                                      #10
                                      Indubitably

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                                        • Fizzgig
                                          Registered User
                                          • Feb 2004
                                          • 9649
                                          #11
                                          Originally posted by mikeyddddd
                                          Indubitably
                                          Absopositindubitably.
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                                            • Blogster
                                              For cybersex, do I need a hole in my monitor?
                                              • Jan 2006
                                              • 234
                                              #12
                                              i doubt it
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                                                • crockett
                                                  in a van by the river
                                                  • May 2003
                                                  • 76818
                                                  #13
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                                                    • just a punk
                                                      So fuckin' bored
                                                      • Jun 2003
                                                      • 32393
                                                      #14
                                                      Originally posted by polish_aristocrat
                                                      do you think an Asteroid will hit Earth in the 21st century ?
                                                      As sooner as better.
                                                      Obey the Cowgod

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                                                        • NoCarrier
                                                          We need more free porn
                                                          • Mar 2002
                                                          • 16356
                                                          #15
                                                          Here is a list of impact risk for the next 100 years.

                                                          http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

                                                          On the "Torino Scale" there is one in 2102 and it's at "1".

                                                          99.99840000% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth

                                                          1 :

                                                          A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.

                                                          Last edited by NoCarrier; 08-26-2006, 02:17 PM.

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                                                            • NoCarrier
                                                              We need more free porn
                                                              • Mar 2002
                                                              • 16356
                                                              #16
                                                              Last edited by NoCarrier; 08-26-2006, 02:15 PM.

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                                                                • polish_aristocrat
                                                                  Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                  • Jul 2002
                                                                  • 40377
                                                                  #17
                                                                  http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/torino_scale.html

                                                                  interesting explanation of the Torino scale.....
                                                                  I don't use ICQ anymore.

                                                                    Comment

                                                                    • polish_aristocrat
                                                                      Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                      • Jul 2002
                                                                      • 40377
                                                                      #18
                                                                      Originally posted by NoCarrier

                                                                      99.99840000% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth
                                                                      where did you get the exact probability?

                                                                      and BTW how is this probability compared f.e to the probability that your tommorows plane from Chicago to New York will crash?

                                                                      just curious
                                                                      I don't use ICQ anymore.

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                                                                        • NoCarrier
                                                                          We need more free porn
                                                                          • Mar 2002
                                                                          • 16356
                                                                          #19
                                                                          Originally posted by polish_aristocrat
                                                                          where did you get the exact probability?
                                                                          http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

                                                                          And click on the "Impact prob." link.

                                                                          Originally posted by polish_aristocrat
                                                                          BTW how is this probability compared f.e to the probability that your tommorows plane from Chicago to New York will crash?
                                                                          just curious
                                                                          Asteroids are objects that they can track. You can't predict that your plane will crash, but you can use statistics.
                                                                          Last edited by NoCarrier; 08-26-2006, 02:29 PM.

                                                                            Comment

                                                                            • polish_aristocrat
                                                                              Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                              • Jul 2002
                                                                              • 40377
                                                                              #20
                                                                              interesing question is what would happen if a really big asteroid hit Earth and destroyed most of the human civilisation

                                                                              let's say if 1% of mankind would survive, then how would the "new" civilisation look like f.e 100 years after the impact, assuming the Eart's climate would turn back to what we know today, after few decades
                                                                              I don't use ICQ anymore.

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                                                                                • notabook
                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                  • Apr 2006
                                                                                  • 9748
                                                                                  #21
                                                                                  We (humanity) really only have to worry about 1,150 known asteroids; these are the only ones that can cause significant damage to us. Then out of those, there is a smaller percentage capable of causing catastrophic global climate change and wide-spread extinction. One of these massive asteroids will strike the Earth around every half million years, some obviously causing more damage than others. The SGS (Spaceguard Survey) should be done mapping the majority of asteroids as well as comets that can cause such devastating damage to our planet by 2008.

                                                                                  Not to be a cliché from bad space movies? but it really is just a question of when, rather than if, an asteroid or comet capable of removing humanity from this sphere comes hurdling through the solar system. The real question is can we stop it in time to preserve our species? I don?t think so; the best ?method? they have atm is to push the comet or asteroid using nukes (not direct strikes as it wouldn?t do much damage and could just make the problem worse by splitting the object into thousands of pieces). Maybe in a century we?ll have some way of dealing with killer rocks? but not now.

                                                                                  If we were to see a comet or asteroid this century that is large enough to cause global climate change and wide-spread extinction, humanity would probably be destroyed in the process. There is some small chance you could survive the initial impact (depending on the size of comet or asteroid) but the many years of the sun being blocked out is going to destroy almost any chance of you able to successfully find food/and or hunt for survival. If you somehow managed to get the world to work together, you may just be able to save enough humans by putting them deep underground.

                                                                                  Even then? repopulating the planet with such a small genetic pool seems very unlikely. You may be able to sustain a small pool of humans for x number of years, but eventually (and probably sooner than later) the remainder of the human population will dwindle and dwindle until there simply just isn?t enough genetic variance to sustain a healthy population. More and more kids will start being born with more and more genetic abnormalities until the species eventually inbreeds itself into extinction. And that is story of how Moses saved Egypt from the robots.

                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                    • blazi
                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                      • Feb 2003
                                                                                      • 4321
                                                                                      #22
                                                                                      thank God for Jupitor or many asteroids would have hit earth by now already!

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                                                                                        • polish_aristocrat
                                                                                          Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                          • Jul 2002
                                                                                          • 40377
                                                                                          #23
                                                                                          some video simulations

                                                                                          http://youtube.com/watch?v=e-R3xN-U3Bk

                                                                                          http://youtube.com/watch?v=Uwb3FDkxfgQ

                                                                                          http://youtube.com/watch?v=oB3G0rvCIJc
                                                                                          I don't use ICQ anymore.

                                                                                            Comment

                                                                                            • polish_aristocrat
                                                                                              Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                              • Jul 2002
                                                                                              • 40377
                                                                                              #24
                                                                                              Originally posted by notabook
                                                                                              If we were to see a comet or asteroid this century that is large enough to cause global climate change and wide-spread extinction, humanity would probably be destroyed in the process. There is some small chance you could survive the initial impact (depending on the size of comet or asteroid) but the many years of the sun being blocked out is going to destroy almost any chance of you able to successfully find food/and or hunt for survival. If you somehow managed to get the world to work together, you may just be able to save enough humans by putting them deep underground.

                                                                                              Even then? repopulating the planet with such a small genetic pool seems very unlikely. You may be able to sustain a small pool of humans for x number of years, but eventually (and probably sooner than later) the remainder of the human population will dwindle and dwindle until there simply just isn?t enough genetic variance to sustain a healthy population. More and more kids will start being born with more and more genetic abnormalities until the species eventually inbreeds itself into extinction. And that is story of how Moses saved Egypt from the robots.
                                                                                              that's the part that fascinates me

                                                                                              I guess I should find a different forum though to discuss such things.
                                                                                              I don't use ICQ anymore.

                                                                                                Comment

                                                                                                • Klen
                                                                                                  • Aug 2006
                                                                                                  • 32235
                                                                                                  #25
                                                                                                  Asteroid will not hit us beause we going to blow it in orbit.

                                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                                    • topshelfdesign
                                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                                      • Aug 2006
                                                                                                      • 930
                                                                                                      #26
                                                                                                      Originally posted by polish_aristocrat
                                                                                                      some video simulations

                                                                                                      http://youtube.com/watch?v=e-R3xN-U3Bk

                                                                                                      http://youtube.com/watch?v=Uwb3FDkxfgQ

                                                                                                      http://youtube.com/watch?v=oB3G0rvCIJc

                                                                                                      that second one is brutal i never thoguht about how it would look, looking down on to the earth

                                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                                        • RichGuy
                                                                                                          Confirmed User
                                                                                                          • Aug 2006
                                                                                                          • 118
                                                                                                          #27
                                                                                                          If it did - it'd be funny.

                                                                                                            Comment

                                                                                                            • StuartD
                                                                                                              Sofa King Band
                                                                                                              • Jul 2002
                                                                                                              • 29903
                                                                                                              #28
                                                                                                              Originally posted by polish_aristocrat
                                                                                                              some video simulations

                                                                                                              http://youtube.com/watch?v=e-R3xN-U3Bk

                                                                                                              http://youtube.com/watch?v=Uwb3FDkxfgQ

                                                                                                              http://youtube.com/watch?v=oB3G0rvCIJc
                                                                                                              yeah, I love those... particularly the 3rd one. Not that I want it to happen, but damn, it is well done.
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                                                                                                                • SomeCreep
                                                                                                                  :glugglug
                                                                                                                  • Mar 2003
                                                                                                                  • 26118
                                                                                                                  #29
                                                                                                                  nooooope.

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                                                                                                                    • nAtuRaLbEautY
                                                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                                                      • May 2006
                                                                                                                      • 6107
                                                                                                                      #30
                                                                                                                      i don't think so...
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                                                                                                                        • SmokeyTheBear
                                                                                                                          ►SouthOfHeaven
                                                                                                                          • Jun 2004
                                                                                                                          • 28609
                                                                                                                          #31
                                                                                                                          asteroids hit earth every century im pretty certain
                                                                                                                          hatisblack at yahoo.com

                                                                                                                            Comment

                                                                                                                            • Barefootsies
                                                                                                                              Choice is an Illusion
                                                                                                                              • Feb 2005
                                                                                                                              • 42635
                                                                                                                              #32
                                                                                                                              Originally posted by polish_aristocrat
                                                                                                                              anyone here interested a little in this subject?

                                                                                                                              from what I know, the chances for a big collision are minimal because they happen once every few millions years, but f.e chances for an impact similar in scale to the Tunguska Event aren't that small.....
                                                                                                                              Should You Email Your Members?

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                                                                                                                                • rodney25
                                                                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                  • Jun 2005
                                                                                                                                  • 7090
                                                                                                                                  #33
                                                                                                                                  Very little possiblity...


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                                                                                                                                    • bl4h
                                                                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                      • Jul 2006
                                                                                                                                      • 1282
                                                                                                                                      #34
                                                                                                                                      we will all die from overpopulation and disease long before the next asteroid hits

                                                                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                                                                        • polish_aristocrat
                                                                                                                                          Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                          • Jul 2002
                                                                                                                                          • 40377
                                                                                                                                          #35
                                                                                                                                          Originally posted by Barefootsies
                                                                                                                                          yeah as said above, I need to find another board for it

                                                                                                                                          now feel free to move on to a "would you hit it" thread or in "jimthefiend fucked my brother"
                                                                                                                                          I don't use ICQ anymore.

                                                                                                                                            Comment

                                                                                                                                            • AsianDivaGirlsWebDude
                                                                                                                                              Purveyor, Fine Asian Porn
                                                                                                                                              • Jul 2004
                                                                                                                                              • 38323
                                                                                                                                              #36
                                                                                                                                              Good topic...

                                                                                                                                              I put down a pretty sizable wager at Ladbroke's that the earth will in fact be hit by an astroid this century. Those suckers are going to paying me out the butt when the planet is split in two.

                                                                                                                                              You see, the odds they offered were - let's say, astronomical.

                                                                                                                                              I can't wait to see their faces when I go in to collect. They were looking all smug when I placed my bet, and I'm sure that they thought I couldn't hear them snickering as I turned and walked out the door with my bet slip firmly in hand.

                                                                                                                                              Well, we will see who has the last laugh...

                                                                                                                                              ADG Webmaster
                                                                                                                                              Last edited by AsianDivaGirlsWebDude; 08-28-2006, 02:00 AM.
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                                                                                                                                                • XMaster
                                                                                                                                                  Poker Player
                                                                                                                                                  • Jul 2003
                                                                                                                                                  • 2947
                                                                                                                                                  #37
                                                                                                                                                  Originally posted by polish_aristocrat
                                                                                                                                                  some video simulations

                                                                                                                                                  http://youtube.com/watch?v=oB3G0rvCIJc
                                                                                                                                                  scary shit
                                                                                                                                                  still moneyhere

                                                                                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                                                                                    • polish_aristocrat
                                                                                                                                                      Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                      • Jul 2002
                                                                                                                                                      • 40377
                                                                                                                                                      #38
                                                                                                                                                      Originally posted by AsianDivaGirlsWebDude
                                                                                                                                                      Good topic...

                                                                                                                                                      I put down a pretty sizable wager at Ladbroke's that the earth will in fact be hit by an astroid this century. Those suckers are going to paying me out the butt when the planet is split in two.

                                                                                                                                                      You see, the odds they offered were - let's say, astronomical.

                                                                                                                                                      I can't wait to see their faces when I go in to collect. They were looking all smug when I placed my bet, and I'm sure that they thought I couldn't hear them snickering as I turned and walked out the door with my bet slip firmly in hand.

                                                                                                                                                      Well, we will see who has the last laugh...

                                                                                                                                                      ADG Webmaster
                                                                                                                                                      hm.... can I still place such bet? LadBrokes.com is my favorite bookie but nothing about it

                                                                                                                                                      and what were the odds and how they define an asteroid? does it have to kill at least 100 people or what ?
                                                                                                                                                      I don't use ICQ anymore.

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                                                                                                                                                        • Ace_luffy
                                                                                                                                                          www.creationcrew.com
                                                                                                                                                          • Feb 2005
                                                                                                                                                          • 12164
                                                                                                                                                          #39



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                                                                                                                                                            • ServerGenius
                                                                                                                                                              Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                              • Feb 2002
                                                                                                                                                              • 9377
                                                                                                                                                              #40
                                                                                                                                                              I'm more worried about hameroids hitting the earth.....
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                                                                                                                                                                • polish_aristocrat
                                                                                                                                                                  Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                                  • Jul 2002
                                                                                                                                                                  • 40377
                                                                                                                                                                  #41
                                                                                                                                                                  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_event
                                                                                                                                                                  I don't use ICQ anymore.

                                                                                                                                                                    Comment

                                                                                                                                                                    • Rhesus
                                                                                                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                                      • Aug 2004
                                                                                                                                                                      • 2009
                                                                                                                                                                      #42
                                                                                                                                                                      Interesting thread

                                                                                                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                                                                                                        • polish_aristocrat
                                                                                                                                                                          Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                                          • Jul 2002
                                                                                                                                                                          • 40377
                                                                                                                                                                          #43
                                                                                                                                                                          Originally posted by Rhesus
                                                                                                                                                                          Interesting thread
                                                                                                                                                                          I don't use ICQ anymore.

                                                                                                                                                                            Comment

                                                                                                                                                                            • JayDeeZee
                                                                                                                                                                              Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                                              • Aug 2006
                                                                                                                                                                              • 3595
                                                                                                                                                                              #44
                                                                                                                                                                              We'll find a way to shoot it first!

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                                                                                                                                                                                • MaddCaz
                                                                                                                                                                                  Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                                                  • Mar 2006
                                                                                                                                                                                  • 9483
                                                                                                                                                                                  #45
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                                                                                                                                                                                    • notabook
                                                                                                                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                                                      • Apr 2006
                                                                                                                                                                                      • 9748
                                                                                                                                                                                      #46
                                                                                                                                                                                      Originally posted by JayDeeZee
                                                                                                                                                                                      We'll find a way to shoot it first!
                                                                                                                                                                                      Yeah.. with our mighty LASERS

                                                                                                                                                                                        Comment

                                                                                                                                                                                        • polish_aristocrat
                                                                                                                                                                                          Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                                                          • Jul 2002
                                                                                                                                                                                          • 40377
                                                                                                                                                                                          #47
                                                                                                                                                                                          Originally posted by KlenTelaris
                                                                                                                                                                                          Asteroid will not hit us beause we going to blow it in orbit.
                                                                                                                                                                                          thanks for your opinion, Sir
                                                                                                                                                                                          I don't use ICQ anymore.

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                                                                                                                                                                                            • polish_aristocrat
                                                                                                                                                                                              Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                                                                                                                                              • Jul 2002
                                                                                                                                                                                              • 40377
                                                                                                                                                                                              #48
                                                                                                                                                                                              I don't use ICQ anymore.

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                                                                                                                                                                                                • cleanpussynow
                                                                                                                                                                                                  I have traffic for sale!
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • Sep 2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                  • 159
                                                                                                                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                                                                                                                  I think that we are going to burn in hell,not asteroid,but human fulishnes.
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                                                                                                                                                                                                    • cess
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Confirmed User
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • Sep 2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                      • 2921
                                                                                                                                                                                                      #50
                                                                                                                                                                                                      I seriously doubt that would happen.

                                                                                                                                                                                                        Comment

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