fiffffty mate

Please don't.

Yep always the safest and surest way to make money. Just has to be the right house and financing on the property. However remember two things the guys selling the mortgages don't care about you so they want to sell you a mortgage so they collect a commision, no matter if you can afford it or not.
and second right now housing in general is overpriced in comparison to wages.
especially in the large markets.

Well said! Now here's the warning:

DO NOT BUY ANYTHING IN CALIFORNIA UNTIL ONE YEAR AFTER THE NEXT EARTHQUAKE.

Why? Because if the next quake is a 6.0 and above it'll scare enough people to haul ass. Prices will drop like a rock too. Now if within one year another quake that magnitude hits you can forget it. The reason is because service here is so jammed up with illegals that during a disaster your chances of receiving 'fair service' by the state and federal government is drastically cut. It's not blaming the illegals it's just that's the way it is. So much money and resources allocated to the populace not based on the alternate populace.

After the first quake buy shit up. Wait on it as it will eventually grow to where it was UNLESS one or more quakes occur within a short period of time.

It's like people in Florida. The Disaster State. The insurance there is going through the roof. Figures don't it? Friend told me today it was over $4k for homeowners insurance there.

Don't buy until after the next big earthquake? You have a time frame on that?
This year, next year, 10 years from now? Sorry I'm not going to base my decisions on when the next biq quake rocks southern California.....LOL

Do you even own a home or piece of property? I sense sour grapes here because you missed out over the last 6 years. If I was to listen to all my friends back in 2000 saying I was nuts to pay 400k for a piece of property overlooking mission bay in San Diego, I would still be renting like them. I now own 5 properties here in San Diego and a couple in North Phoenix. All of them have different types of loans ranging from 30 year fixed to 10 year ARMS.

1982: You can't lose with gold. It will goto $10,000 an ounce!
2000: You can't lose with Worldcom. They will rule the multimedia + telco century.
2005/2006: You can't lose with real estate, even after prices are up 300% in some areas, inventories are building and interest rates (i.e. financing costs) are up.

Take a look at the chart of a leading residential home/condo building real estate company: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TOL&...=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Came down a sweet 55% in just 1 year. There is a reason for it. Investors are shitting their pants and have serious doubts if these RE companies can continue to haul in money sellling the same old beach front condos year after year.

People in some hot areas are already losing their ass (those with broder-line financing). It doesn't mean you can not make money here, the question is do you want to enter a market that tripled in 4 years and all variables are turning against it? There are markets (asset classes) that offer a better risk/reward ratio IMO.

Nobody can predict the future. Hell, who knows maybe US RE will appreciate another 300% in the next couple years? But... history just teaches one thing: All the parabolic moves come down, one day. Some come down hard and it takes 5, 6, ... 7 year for them to come back. Try to ride the trend, then jump off before the peak of the hype. Rather miss out on 25% of the gains than be burned for 75% losses.

I really don't feel like typing my whole theory here. If you're that intrigued, IM me and I'll expound on it for you.

My Dad is a VP for one of the largest real estate companies in the US and was a VP for the company that owns ERA, Century 21, Sothebys, Coldwell Banker and the two largest mortage companies in the US. We've spent a lot of time working through the possibilities together and it's all come down to one reality.

The President of the company that owns all those brands lives in a rented house. He makes $6 mil a year and lives in a rented house.

If you want to make $$$ in real estate, come on down to Panama and get out your checkbook. I'll intro you to the right people and get you in on the best stuff, for 5% of your first two years profits. This is the fastest growing real estate market on the planet.

Listen to him.

Only reservation I have regarding Panama, Belize, Honduras are the social unrests that can happen if shit hit the fan up here. Disasters aren't that much of a concern. Yes there's that occasional Central American earthquake, Volcano, hurricane but the damage is usually if not only to badly constructed housing and flooding and mudslides to areas where deforrestation has taken place. Other than that the Central American places are a huge attraction to expatriates and vacation homeowners.

Oh man, you're singin' the 'greedy bastard blues' :)

You're right on target. There were so many speculators in the market they're killing themselves. Now they're trying to weasle their way out and of course they're using politicians and appraisers to hedge their bets. They put in a new mailbox and the property raises $30k.

It's like what destroyed the comic book industry in the 90's. So many speculators and hacks working in the industry with #1 issues that were gold plated and triple embossed with all the glitz and shitz and nothing between the pages.

Nice! I'm so old I remember when Mr. Bubble was invented! Parents couldn't believe it didn't leave a bathtub ring!

Nice! I'm so old I remember when Mr. Bubble was invented! Parents couldn't believe it didn't leave a bathtub ring!

http://www.economist.com/finance/dis...ory_id=4079027

The global housing boom

In come the waves
Jun 16th 2005
From The Economist print edition

The worldwide rise in house prices is the biggest bubble in history. Prepare for the economic pain when it pops

NEVER before have real house prices risen so fast, for so long, in so many countries. Property markets have been frothing from America, Britain and Australia to France, Spain and China. Rising property prices helped to prop up the world economy after the stockmarket bubble burst in 2000. What if the housing boom now turns to bust?

According to estimates by The Economist, the total value of residential property in developed economies rose by more than $30 trillion over the past five years, to over $70 trillion, an increase equivalent to 100% of those countries' combined GDPs. Not only does this dwarf any previous house-price boom, it is larger than the global stockmarket bubble in the late 1990s (an increase over five years of 80% of GDP) or America's stockmarket bubble in the late 1920s (55% of GDP). In other words, it looks like the biggest bubble in history.

The global boom in house prices has been driven by two common factors: historically low interest rates have encouraged home buyers to borrow more money; and households have lost faith in equities after stockmarkets plunged, making property look attractive. Will prices now fall, or simply flatten off? And in either case, what will be the consequences for economies around the globe? The likely answers to all these questions are not comforting.


....

Couple of things Greg... agree with you on Honduras and several other Latin American countries as regards social unrest. Panama is not such a country - and same with Costa Rica.

To be honest, tho Belize is OK, but has too many problems re real estate - and the opportunities are more limited.

Panama along with Costa Rica is probably in top of the list for the world as regards real estate - in fact, Biz Weekly rated CR in the top three countries. There is simply no comparison with most other nations.

johnafacade is pretty much 100% on target about Panama and rest assured, he will be doing a nice deal with 5% of investment profits for a two year period :winkwink:

Bluntly.. I've earned on one project alone.. $6.4 mill - and this year on just capital gain alone, going to be.. around another $3.2 mill. (And not one bank, finance house or credit facility on the horizon.) Also got a load of very happy investors on other stuff who have earned, up to Jan this year, - a seven-fold increase in their investment over 30 months - and a very nice profit for this year to come - which they have not been told about yet :winkwink:

There is a serious ... kinda blindfold in place when trying to compare foreign real estate investment (tho depends on the country) to "conventional rat-race" real estate. They could not be further part.

Excellent story MattK!

Yes, there's an ever growing margin tween rich and poor. Real estate bs is one good reason. It'll crash as it's getting to the point that no one can afford the good stuff.

There's just so far speculation and bullshit can take a market.

Fuck it Webby, I'm working for you!

We have a huge investor's meeting every autumn. Guys aren't interested in real estate but I think they'll change for this year. That or medical technology applications.

:1orglaugh :1orglaugh

I takes some work Greg, but no place like 24 hours a day on the net.

Another simple example... this is a very clean-cut example of blatant development - nothing actually too clever about it since it involves simply "plotting and cutting" of land.

This is not a project I was involved in, but that of a friend. They bought a load of dried out fields totalling around 1400 ish hectares than plotted that out into 1000 units with plenty space between. Land cost just over $9 mill.
Then proceeded to sell these plots at a "good deal" price of $45K each and going up to.. around $80K.

They sold the lot in eleven months and basically pulled in around $48 million (less, call it $10 mill for land and promo costs etc).

He has now bought another few fields around that plot - and now selling them off to developers who have an interest in constructing hotels, malls and a casino. He is not doing the development work - leaving that to others to trouble over - he's just coining more money into the bin by selling to the developers at a profit.

This is more kinda... "hardcore development" - just money-getting.