So far, the project has run about 200 simulations of an avian flu epidemic, models that have helped Longini's group reach provocative conclusions that fall along two lines: how a nationwide outbreak might take hold, and what policies would best combat it.

EpiCast reveals that, in contrast with flu epidemics of decades past, an outbreak today won't progress "like a wave across the country," spreading from town to town and state to state. Instead, no matter where it erupts - Seattle, Chicago, Miami - it will swiftly blanket the nation. "It starts in Chicago one day," Germann says, "and a couple of weeks later it's everywhere at once." Thank the airlines. Even though disease has piggybacked on air travel for decades, we generally had only isolated outbreaks of low-transmission viruses - like when SARS leapt from Hong Kong to Canada in 2003 but failed to spread beyond Toronto. In an epidemic of a highly communicable disease, the airlines' hub network would effectively seed every metropolitan area in the country within a month or two - and then reseed them, repeatedly.

EpiCast showed that local intervention measures can have some impact: Close the schools, enforce a quarantine, and the disease will slow down. That buys the federal government time to develop and mass-produce a vaccine. But Germann quickly adds a caveat: Acting locally may not be enough. In a worst-case outbreak, without a viable vaccine, "the disease will climb, and eventually go exponential. And once it's on the exponential curve, it's very difficult to contain.

You're right. I'm selling my house, going to the Antarctic, and buying an igloo.



Wait... do penguins get bird flu?

[IMG][/IMG]http://images.rottentomatoes.com/ima...8/photo_14.jpg

The Killer Bees won't move too far north. 2 miles a day is too fast I would say. At that rate they'd be in Montana in a year and a half. I'd say more like 10 miles a year.

They can't tolerate cold nor the bee mite infections.

They're vicious no doubt but not as bad as predicted. No where near as bad.

what the hell ever happened to 2257, Acacia and all the rest of the horseshiters?
we don't want to leave anyone out here.
you'll hurt there feelings.

You guys are more paranoid than europeans, I did not think this would be possible.

1) The bird flu is not transmittable to humans without extreme direct contact with infected birds.
2) For it to become an HUMAN epidemic it needs to first mutate to even be transmittable between humans.
3) There is NO SINGLE COUNT of human to human transmittion even in asia where many humans got infected
4) For it to be actually likely that it mutates it needs a host that already has a human transmittable flu.
5) Even if that is given does not mean that it happends.

were all dead, im getting one of those masks

For those in the UK, you might want to watch Channel 4 now.
http://www.channel4.com/science/micr.../bird_flu.html

Re-reading Steven King's "The Stand" now....

wait a tick.... wasn't this just another 'scare tactic' by the fascist regime occupying the government?

Its tougher than you may think, governments are stock piling it. Even doctors can't prescribe it as the demand is nuts.
WG

we had the bird flu last year here in canada.. same thing too. Big Hype.. not alot happened. A few people died but probably wold have had they gotten a normal flu anyway. Heck they even put out travel advisory's not to go to toronto.

But back then we called it s.a.r.s.

This is the exact reason I have bought EMFp stock.

They make a mask that protects humans from bird flu and otehr airbourne diseases.

i sale short bird flu vaccine. $5 for 1 tablet. $10 for 2. i throw in free vitamins.

hide your chickens ..!

:1orglaugh :1orglaugh :1orglaugh :1orglaugh :1orglaugh :1orglaugh

Now THAT's scary :)

Oh this is fucked up! ABC evening news states that the 2nd variant of the bird flu virus is faster and more lethal. Because of this second mutation the first vaccine is now useless. The first wave will hit Alaska in as little as three weeks and then be fully in the lower 48 states by August. Just in time to fuck up all the birds that will then begin to start flying south for the winter and possibly infecting all the birds in Central and S. America.

Is that fucked up or what???

Because Alaska is so remote it would take experts about a month to know if it has arrived.

This year is gonna be a doozy.

Ah well, the good thing is that if it does finally hit, it will reduce the world population to sustainable levels -- something even abortion hasnt managed to do yet. Bush and his buddies are out to make a buck, its nothing new for them by any strech. It very well could be that Bird Flu is just a bunch of bird shit.

If it was bird shit it wouldn't have mutated already. That's the definite warning sign. Not a total final sign but a warning sign.

Most of the time, viri reach a crescendo and just go less vital. Once in a while one doesn't. The indicators are the intensity of the first 2 or 3 waves. Other factors build on that by giving the viri an environment to thrive in for good or bad.

Bird shit? Not by a long shot. Something to keep an eye on as ABC News is running a round the clock vigil and running nightly reports. Obviously they know something we don't?

they're just hyping it because it gets people to view their shitty newscasts and their advertisers love it

i hope it's not yet too late before experts discover the cure to this killer disease.

Sheesh! The scientist who discovered the bird flu was on ABC News tonight. Fuckin' scary what he said. to put it lightly he's got 3 months of food and water stored.

If it hits, it'll be no respecter of wealth...

Very well stated. I'll just delete my post now since it was pretty much word-4-word.

Our world is due for another population thinning. And like all death we can stave it off for a while but it will happen sooner or later. We are to the Earth nothing but parasites and like any living organism it can only tolerate so much then it is time for a clensing.

I am not sure why the one guy said he was gong to buy a gun. Diseases kill people with guns also.

I really don't understand how I see the biggest birdflu fanatics on a webmaster board. If bird flu strikes, just stay in your house sitting in front of the computer posting bullshit on gfy. Just like you do every other day of the week.

This bird flu forum has some great info, especially on what supplies to stockpile.

http://www.superflutalk.com/ :thumbsup

holy shit! I had no idea how far it was spread already
http://www.pandemicflu.gov/images/popmap.jpg

Estimates it'll be in the US in about 6 months.

Just hope the fucker doesn't mutate, or start doing shit like killing cats and dogs, cattle, cows, pigs, too.

This bird flu issue is making me paranoid.

And I do believe that everyone is now dead from stings in those shaded counties..so please, get ready to die immediately from the bird flu that should show up in it's first cases toward the end of April in Alaska.

LOL!! :thumbsup

I'm not laughing..I'm taking the administration's advice and have plenty of duck tape (hope IT'S not infected) and lots of plastic to insulate my home from the flu.

If that's the case, then the simple solution is just build a big dome over Alaska so the birds can't get out. That way they can play baseball in the winter too!

Bird Flu can actually make you a quick buck...anyone know some good hypodermic needle manufacturers to invest in?

I bought this stock around November at 50cents... today it closed at $2.38... NNVC - NANOVIRICIDES INC

On the bright side those who survive will be indoors buying porn:)

still i can see a lot of old bitch feeding wild pigeons out in the parks... they are too stupid to understand the dangers of bird flu :disgust

that is a very informative site you posted. :thumbsup

Tonight's ABC News had the guy who discovered bird flu on.

To put it bluntly he said two things worth alarm:

1) Worse case scenario is 50% of humanity dying from this shit

2) He and his family have 3 months worth of food and water stored up.

The second one emphasizes what a top scientist like him feels about the situation.

How can you even go outside with all the killer bees infected with SARS flying around?

Well you were smart enough to buy the stock and not the mask because the mask does shit. Doesn't mean a billion morons (including many from this board) won't own one.

Are you always such a gullible moron?

3 months of food, whatever will they do after 3 months? I probably have 3 months of food in my house "just because". Stop buying in to every fucking thing that is slammed down your throat by people with something to gain by spreading the information.

I am so sick of this fucking epidemic bullshit that I wish it would come and wipe you cocksmokers out that think staying indoors with powdered milk and Tamiflu would make a fucking difference.

if yer reallly, really lucky that guy that said we were assholes for buying guns will be stocking up on stuff and live right next door to ya :thumbsup

[3 months of food, whatever will they do after 3 months? I probably have 3 months of food in my house "just because".

**** after 3 months only the fleash eating zombies will be left anyway so it won't matter


I am so sick of this fucking epidemic bullshit that I wish it would come and wipe you cocksmokers out that think staying indoors with powdered milk and Tamiflu would make a fucking difference.

*** search 'the spanish lady' just for yucks!!