It's a common statistics problem. Google "monty hall problem" or "monty hall dilemma".

Like my dad used to always say, "you can prove whatever you want with statistics. Doesn't make it true."

For those trying to figure out if they should choose a different
door to get the car, here's a little game you can play to test
your idea: http://expos.com/doors.cgi. Hopefully
you can get on a game show and win!

Statistics are worthless. 39% of people know this.
If 69% of people knew this, then they would be meaningful.

With all due respect (one of the times I mean it), can't that be programmed to give those results?

Great interview Professor!

Sure it could... but I programmed it to be fair :winkwink: Try
the 4 and 5 window test - it's a bit more dramatic there.

Okay, then why?

Ok so I googled the Monty Hall Problem and found lots of different explanations for why switching doors is the right thing to do, however none of them are based on sound mathematical principle.

For instance
No matter which door you choose after one of the non-winning doors has been revealed, you still have "two doors collectively".

This is also an erroneous statement, because "if you switch" the prize isn't available 2/3 of the time, it's only available half of the time because there are only two choices left.
Regardless of how many choices you started with, when given the option to switch it becomes an entirely new situation, one with only two choices and not three.

I'll keep looking for a better explanation, but at this point none of them have me convinced.

I just got 6 in a row that I would have won if I stayed (3 door). I don't think I have yet to get more than 4 (maybe 5) in a row if I switched.

somebody PLEASE call a mathematician - or a statitician

Is there somewhere that we can watch old Let's Make A Deal shows?

Hmmmm this is an interesting explanation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

It's very counter-intuitive, but if looked at the right way can be understood.
The advantage to switching comes from the fact that the game show host doesn't open a door at random, he ALWAYS opens a non-winning door.
That is, if the player picks a door with nothing the game host picks the other door with nothing.
And if the player picks the door with a car, the game host randomly picks either of the two doors with nothing

This means there are three possible scenarios, each with equal probability (1/3):

The player picks empty door number 1. The game host picks the other empty door. Switching will win the car.
The player picks empty door number 2. The game host picks the other empty door. Switching will win the car.
The player picks the car. The game host picks either of the two empty doors. Switching will lose.

Kind of hard to get your mind around that one, but I'll be damned if it isn't right.

Great job!
(off to bed now - more posts in a few hours)

LOL - these last few posts are MONEY!!! :1orglaugh

very good to read this!

Wait . . . . never mind . . . too late for this.

you're just going to give up n go??:(

Not a matter of giving up . . . I am trying to convince myself, but am not having much success.

Go the extra Mile:winkwink:

Your questions are great as usual. I just like to compliment them:)

A close friend of mine does, I'll ask him to contact you. It's not a brick and mortar project per se either.:)

I've learned from school in math that you should always change your mind if you are presented to this 3 option game problem :D We even did a few tests in class and it showed up to be true.

Now you see the mental mastrubation I have to go through on a daily basis to get andrew to agree with me hahahha the 3 door conversation is like our every day debate. He always pulls some math outta the woodwwork. its good though keeps me on my toes. He is also a ruthless negotiator due to his Jimmy Neutron syndrome :)

My earth science teacher taught us that if you didn't know touch the tip of your four fingers and smash them on the desk, whichever tingles the most, go with that answer. I did a few of those "test" answers in class ... showed up to be ... eh, true and not so true. ; )

Personally, I am suppose to go with my first inclination, but I always switch. Gets me in trouble everytime, I'm trying to learn to go with my first instinct.

Anyways, let's get some more answers, we're waiting! : )

Q: If you had to choose between money, power, or women, which would you choose?

A: I'd choose the lesser of three evils.[/QUOTE]


What if each of these are behind door #1, #2, #3...... :upsidedow



p.s. hi Andrew -- great interview! Awesome questions Sleazy -- "inquiring minds" want to know!!!!!!:thumbsup

Great interview.

Oh, I think his name was Jerry Yang - he started a little website
called Yahoo. One day in 1994 he visited my web development company
looking for someone to give him free hosting for his site (probably
for a cut). Well, to make a sad story short, he didn't host with us.

Its always a pleasure to see intelligent people that use real business principals to make money in adult get recognized.

Ever since I had an engine burst into flames on a flight over the
pacific -- the electrical systems went haywire and not just the passengers
but the stewardesses were going hysterical -- it's been hard to hop in a plane.
But I've resolved to do it this year or become buds with John Madden.

woj :)

Hey Andrew, you want to do a link trade ;-)

Sriously, this is a great interview and I am soo looking forward for upcomign questions. I think this will be the Smartest Ambush Sleazy's done.

Cheers!!!

Interesting interview..good questions and answers

oh man catching up on this thread almost broke my brain! All that math talk? Damn i'm glad it's only saturday. :)

Great interview and company....

Cool interview. Andrew, I hope you don't mind a couple of hardball questions...

1. Have you seen any effect of Myspace & other free services on A. Your Business & B. the overall sector.

2. What is the average retention sitewide on AFF and FF.

3. Which FFI sites retains the longest?

4. What's the ratio of free members to paid?

We always hear stuff about Adult Friend Finder FF but we rarely hear about the other "900" sites in the protfolio we are able to promote. Tell us about them.

Yah, most shacks in the bay area cost more than mansions anywhere else.
Here's a lovely example http://www.mlslistings.com/common/properties/propertyDetail.asp?open=0&page=1&mls_number=607576 &type=property&name= or go large with
http://www.mlslistings.com/common/properties/propertyDetail.asp?open=0&page=1&mls_number=604406 &type=property&name=http://www.mlslistings.com/common/pr...property&name=
I do have my eyes open for a ranch or farm though - somewhere I can
motor around in a tractor and dig up stuff. :)

Damn, thats almost as bad as Hawaii. :Oh crap

Just wanted some solid business related questions...

Those examples remind me why my husband and I stopped looking... It was way too depressing. Even if you can afford a home, it just seems wrong to pay those prices for such un-impressive houses. When I was younger, that is definetly not what I thought a "million dollar home" would look like!