Bird flu 'could be 21st-century Black Death'. Predict a collapse of public order. - GoFuckYourself.com

NoCarrier · 01-27-2006, 07:28 AM

Interesting article..

Bird flu 'could be 21st-century Black Death'

· Economists predict rioting and flight from cities
· Markets not prepared for risks occurring together

Avian flu has the potential to develop into a global pandemic that would be as devastating as the Black Death of the 14th century, the World Economic Forum warned yesterday in its assessment of the risks threatening stability and prosperity.

In a worst-case outcome, experts charged with weighing up systemic dangers said there might be riots to gain access to supplies of vaccines, a collapse of public order, a partial flight from the cities and large-scale migration. The report published at the WEF's annual meeting in Davos said there was only a small risk of a return to the economic and social chaos caused by the Black Death, and it would only occur if bird flu conflated with other risks to the global community.

Article continues
"An outbreak of H5NI [avian flu] human to human transmission could have devastating impacts globally across all social and economic sectors, disrupting efficient processes, severely degrading response capabilities and exacerbating the effects of known weaknesses in different systems," said the report.

The assessment, undertaken by risk experts at the insurance companies Swiss Re and Marsh and McLennan (MMC), and Merrill Lynch, identified terrorism, an oil-price spike, natural disasters and a bird-flu pandemic as the big threats in 2006. It added that the speed at which global risks travelled thanks to globalisation could lead to "rapid and unexpected contagion of global risks across industries and geographical areas. The interplay of multiple global risks and their combined ripple effects can create potentially disastrous "perfect storms" - cumulative events which cause damage far in excess of the sum of each individual risk event."

Avian flu has spread from China as far west as eastern Europe and the number of deaths caused has been relatively small. The WEF report said nevertheless that there was a remote chance that bird flu could have far more dramatic effects. "These impacts might include the disruption of supply chains and trade flows; an exacerbation of financial imbalances and the transformation of intellectual property regimes for pharmaceutical products; rioting to gain access to scarce supplies of antivirals and vaccines; a collapse of public order; partial de-urbanisation as people flee population centres; the extinction of trust in governments; decimation of specific human skill sets; and forced, large-scale migration, associated with the further collapse of already weak states."

It added: "In such a scenario, the impact on society might be as profound as that which followed the Black Death in Europe in 1348. That plague caused a fundamental transformation of socio-economic relations in Europe."

Kevan Watts, chairman of Merrill Lynch International, and one of the authors of the report, said he doubted whether financial markets were prepared for a situation in which all risks conflated. "Markets are not assuming pain in the near term at the severe end of the spectrum."

Drawing a comparison with August 1914, Mr Watts added the markets had been taken completely by surprise by the outbreak of the first world war, failing to spot that hostilities were about to start even on the last day of peace. The report called for international collaboration, with governments, the private sector, inter-governmental organisations and parts of civil society joining together to mitigate risks. Christian Mumenthaler, chief risk officer at Swiss Re, said there was a tendency to spend too little on a problem when it was only a threat and then spending billions solving the problem once it had become fully developed.

Although the WEF report said bird flu was the risk most preoccupying global business and political leaders in early 2006, it stressed that the geo-political landscape was still dominated by the risk (real and perceived) of terrorism. "The capacity of terrorist organisations to act globally in a coordinated way has diminished, but the risks of localised terror remain high. Should an attack incorporate chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, or target critical infrastructure, the human and economic costs will bring new pressures to bear on public policy."

The report said there was a "high risk" (above 20%) of the oil price rising above $80 (£45) a barrel this year, and that this could cost the global economy between $250 bn and $1 trillion. There was a less than 1% risk of the price reaching $100.

http://business.guardian.co.uk/story...ticle_continue

NoCarrier · 01-27-2006, 07:41 AM

UN urges nations to prepare for pandemic

http://ottsun.canoe.ca/News/2006/01/25/1410363-sun.html

GENEVA -- Countries must speed up preparations to deal with an "inevitable" human influenza pandemic, which could strike soon, a senior United Nations official warned yesterday.

David Nabarro, the UN co-ordinator on avian and human influenza, said countries must work fast because the H5N1 strain of bird flu could mutate into a form that spreads easily between people much faster than some officials seem to believe.

Experts fear that a mutation in the virus, which has ravaged poultry stocks across Asia since late 2003 and killed at least 82 people worldwide, could spark a pandemic, killing millions of people.

"I say to them please act as though it's going to start tomorrow. Don't keep putting off the difficult issues," Nabarro said on the sidelines of the World Health Organization's annual week-long executive board meeting. "It may not be months, it could mean we are going to get human-to-human transmission tomorrow."

So far, the virus remains hard for people to catch, with most human cases traced to contact with infected birds. The UN health agency has confirmed 151 human cases in the last three years.

But when asked if he believed a human flu pandemic was inevitable, Nabarro answered: "Yes."

TAMIFLU BEST DEFENCE

He was asked specifically about Swiss pharmaceutical Roche Holding AG's drug Tamiflu, which experts believe would be the best defence in the initial phases of any global influenza pandemic.

Roche owns the right to produce and supply Tamiflu, but it has come under increasing international pressure to ease its monopoly grip on the drug as governments have sought to increase their stockpiles.

Under World Trade Organization rules, countries can issue so-called "compulsory licences" to disregard patent rights, but only after negotiating with the patent owners and paying them adequate compensation. If they declare a public health emergency, governments can skip the negotiating.

Manowar · 01-27-2006, 07:47 AM

Meh, the day I catch it is the day I care.

no point living your life in worry

GFX Wiz · 01-27-2006, 07:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoCarrier

Under World Trade Organization rules, countries can issue so-called "compulsory licences" to disregard patent rights, but only after negotiating with the patent owners and paying them adequate compensation. If they declare a public health emergency, governments can skip the negotiating.

That's classic.

Holly · 01-27-2006, 07:52 AM

We'll deal with bird flu, next. Right now, we're too worried down here in the States about you infecting us with your mad cow.

We may have to nuke you, just to be safe.

BlackCrayon · 01-27-2006, 07:55 AM

the media fear machine is healthy and well.

Gunni · 01-27-2006, 07:56 AM

I remember hearing the same thing about SARS,
they're just selling a lot of drugs. It's the same thing as with the y2k bug, over hyped

CaptainHowdy · 01-27-2006, 08:04 AM

AGAIN WITH THE BIRD FLU, Man... Seriously...

LadyMischief · 01-27-2006, 08:16 AM

You love being a fear-monger, don't you?

Dollarmansteve · 01-27-2006, 08:20 AM

Ok, so global pandemics have the potential for severe socio-economic upheaval and widespread death and HN51 bird-flu has the potential to be a global pandemic.

Err... this is not new and nor particularly troubling news... welcome to existence y'all.

NoCarrier · 01-27-2006, 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LadyMischief

You love being a fear-monger, don't you?

You love replying in my threads, don't you?

NoCarrier · 01-27-2006, 08:56 AM

If anyone is interested to learn more (and even how to prep) instead of whining about media hype and bullshit, here's an interesting link :

Black Dawn: The Next Pandemic is a docudrama about a hypothetical pandemic of avian influenza (H5N1), from initial outbreak through mass transmission and global spread. It was from the tv show the fifth estate.

http://www.cbc.ca/fifth/nextpandemic/index.html

StuartD · 01-27-2006, 08:58 AM

potential, could, might, if, maybe....

blah blah blah.

If I worried about any of those words, I'd be stressing 24/7.

crockett · 01-27-2006, 08:59 AM

I think I have the Bird Flu now..

LadyMischief · 01-27-2006, 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NoCarrier

If anyone is interested to learn more (and even how to prep) instead of whining about media hype and bullshit, here's an interesting link :

Black Dawn: The Next Pandemic is a docudrama about a hypothetical pandemic of avian influenza (H5N1), from initial outbreak through mass transmission and global spread. It was from the tv show the fifth estate.

http://www.cbc.ca/fifth/nextpandemic/index.html

I don't think it's media hype in the least, but it seems to be all you talk about... How many threads have you posted about the bird flu in the last 6 months? I'd be curious to count :P

NoCarrier · 01-27-2006, 09:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LadyMischief

I don't think it's media hype in the least, but it seems to be all you talk about...

Funny, because it's only in "bird flu" thread that I see your replies. 99% of my other threads are about everything else. I only post H5N1 information when articles are interesting of if there is something new.

In the last 6 months, I started 10 threads about it.

NoCarrier · 01-27-2006, 09:05 AM

What the? Double post bug?

dij · 01-27-2006, 09:32 AM

luv$ · 01-27-2006, 09:35 AM

Anyone else think it's kinda convenient that we're given something new to be scared about when George W's going through the ringer............................................ .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ......................again...

rip raster · 01-27-2006, 09:47 AM

I have always known that chickens would be the death of us all...I sure hope the fucking sky doesn't fall on us next

Lee · 01-27-2006, 09:59 AM

Saw that programme on TB the other day and they highlighted that these potential pandemics have to be "glamourous". They quoted something along the lines of last year TB killed 2 million worldwide whereas SARS killed 800 odd but you couldnt compare the press coverage. Whats the possibility that this could be the same?

potter · 01-27-2006, 10:14 AM

If bird flu breaks out here is what you do.

Step 1. Go to local gun shop and buy shotgun, assualt rifle, and lots of ammo.
Step 2. Go to local army surplus store and buy crates of MREs.
Step 3. Setup shop and cintinue to spread drama on GFY while sitting naked at the computer eating MREs.

01-27-2006, 07:28 AM	#1
NoCarrier We need more free porn Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Montreal Posts: 16,356	Bird flu 'could be 21st-century Black Death'. Predict a collapse of public order. Interesting article.. Bird flu 'could be 21st-century Black Death' · Economists predict rioting and flight from cities · Markets not prepared for risks occurring together Avian flu has the potential to develop into a global pandemic that would be as devastating as the Black Death of the 14th century, the World Economic Forum warned yesterday in its assessment of the risks threatening stability and prosperity. In a worst-case outcome, experts charged with weighing up systemic dangers said there might be riots to gain access to supplies of vaccines, a collapse of public order, a partial flight from the cities and large-scale migration. The report published at the WEF's annual meeting in Davos said there was only a small risk of a return to the economic and social chaos caused by the Black Death, and it would only occur if bird flu conflated with other risks to the global community. Article continues "An outbreak of H5NI [avian flu] human to human transmission could have devastating impacts globally across all social and economic sectors, disrupting efficient processes, severely degrading response capabilities and exacerbating the effects of known weaknesses in different systems," said the report. The assessment, undertaken by risk experts at the insurance companies Swiss Re and Marsh and McLennan (MMC), and Merrill Lynch, identified terrorism, an oil-price spike, natural disasters and a bird-flu pandemic as the big threats in 2006. It added that the speed at which global risks travelled thanks to globalisation could lead to "rapid and unexpected contagion of global risks across industries and geographical areas. The interplay of multiple global risks and their combined ripple effects can create potentially disastrous "perfect storms" - cumulative events which cause damage far in excess of the sum of each individual risk event." Avian flu has spread from China as far west as eastern Europe and the number of deaths caused has been relatively small. The WEF report said nevertheless that there was a remote chance that bird flu could have far more dramatic effects. "These impacts might include the disruption of supply chains and trade flows; an exacerbation of financial imbalances and the transformation of intellectual property regimes for pharmaceutical products; rioting to gain access to scarce supplies of antivirals and vaccines; a collapse of public order; partial de-urbanisation as people flee population centres; the extinction of trust in governments; decimation of specific human skill sets; and forced, large-scale migration, associated with the further collapse of already weak states." It added: "In such a scenario, the impact on society might be as profound as that which followed the Black Death in Europe in 1348. That plague caused a fundamental transformation of socio-economic relations in Europe." Kevan Watts, chairman of Merrill Lynch International, and one of the authors of the report, said he doubted whether financial markets were prepared for a situation in which all risks conflated. "Markets are not assuming pain in the near term at the severe end of the spectrum." Drawing a comparison with August 1914, Mr Watts added the markets had been taken completely by surprise by the outbreak of the first world war, failing to spot that hostilities were about to start even on the last day of peace. The report called for international collaboration, with governments, the private sector, inter-governmental organisations and parts of civil society joining together to mitigate risks. Christian Mumenthaler, chief risk officer at Swiss Re, said there was a tendency to spend too little on a problem when it was only a threat and then spending billions solving the problem once it had become fully developed. Although the WEF report said bird flu was the risk most preoccupying global business and political leaders in early 2006, it stressed that the geo-political landscape was still dominated by the risk (real and perceived) of terrorism. "The capacity of terrorist organisations to act globally in a coordinated way has diminished, but the risks of localised terror remain high. Should an attack incorporate chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, or target critical infrastructure, the human and economic costs will bring new pressures to bear on public policy." The report said there was a "high risk" (above 20%) of the oil price rising above $80 (£45) a barrel this year, and that this could cost the global economy between $250 bn and $1 trillion. There was a less than 1% risk of the price reaching $100. http://business.guardian.co.uk/story...ticle_continue __________________ Last edited by NoCarrier; 01-27-2006 at 07:29 AM..

01-27-2006, 07:41 AM	#2
NoCarrier We need more free porn Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Montreal Posts: 16,356	UN urges nations to prepare for pandemic http://ottsun.canoe.ca/News/2006/01/25/1410363-sun.html GENEVA -- Countries must speed up preparations to deal with an "inevitable" human influenza pandemic, which could strike soon, a senior United Nations official warned yesterday. David Nabarro, the UN co-ordinator on avian and human influenza, said countries must work fast because the H5N1 strain of bird flu could mutate into a form that spreads easily between people much faster than some officials seem to believe. Experts fear that a mutation in the virus, which has ravaged poultry stocks across Asia since late 2003 and killed at least 82 people worldwide, could spark a pandemic, killing millions of people. "I say to them please act as though it's going to start tomorrow. Don't keep putting off the difficult issues," Nabarro said on the sidelines of the World Health Organization's annual week-long executive board meeting. "It may not be months, it could mean we are going to get human-to-human transmission tomorrow." So far, the virus remains hard for people to catch, with most human cases traced to contact with infected birds. The UN health agency has confirmed 151 human cases in the last three years. But when asked if he believed a human flu pandemic was inevitable, Nabarro answered: "Yes." TAMIFLU BEST DEFENCE He was asked specifically about Swiss pharmaceutical Roche Holding AG's drug Tamiflu, which experts believe would be the best defence in the initial phases of any global influenza pandemic. Roche owns the right to produce and supply Tamiflu, but it has come under increasing international pressure to ease its monopoly grip on the drug as governments have sought to increase their stockpiles. Under World Trade Organization rules, countries can issue so-called "compulsory licences" to disregard patent rights, but only after negotiating with the patent owners and paying them adequate compensation. If they declare a public health emergency, governments can skip the negotiating. __________________

01-27-2006, 07:52 AM	#5
Holly Too lazy to set a custom title Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Jesusland Posts: 10,017	We'll deal with bird flu, next. Right now, we're too worried down here in the States about you infecting us with your mad cow. We may have to nuke you, just to be safe. __________________ War National Damn Champions Eagle

01-27-2006, 07:55 AM	#6
BlackCrayon Too lazy to set a custom title Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Ottawa Posts: 19,631	the media fear machine is healthy and well. __________________ you don't know you're wearing a leash if you sit by the peg all day..

01-27-2006, 08:16 AM	#9
LadyMischief Orgasms N Such! Industry Role: Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Oakville, Ontario Posts: 18,135	You love being a fear-monger, don't you? __________________ ICQ 3522039 Content Manager - orgasm.com [email protected]

01-27-2006, 07:47 AM	#3
Manowar jellyfish Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 71,528	Meh, the day I catch it is the day I care. no point living your life in worry

01-27-2006, 07:56 AM	#7
Gunni Confirmed User Industry Role: Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Barcelona Posts: 2,385	I remember hearing the same thing about SARS, they're just selling a lot of drugs. It's the same thing as with the y2k bug, over hyped

01-27-2006, 08:04 AM	#8
CaptainHowdy Too lazy to set a custom title Industry Role: Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Happy in the dark. Posts: 93,572	AGAIN WITH THE BIRD FLU, Man... Seriously...

01-27-2006, 08:20 AM	#10
Dollarmansteve Confirmed User Join Date: May 2005 Location: T.O. Posts: 2,849	Ok, so global pandemics have the potential for severe socio-economic upheaval and widespread death and HN51 bird-flu has the potential to be a global pandemic. Err... this is not new and nor particularly troubling news... welcome to existence y'all. __________________ I died.

01-27-2006, 08:56 AM	#12
NoCarrier We need more free porn Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Montreal Posts: 16,356	If anyone is interested to learn more (and even how to prep) instead of whining about media hype and bullshit, here's an interesting link : Black Dawn: The Next Pandemic is a docudrama about a hypothetical pandemic of avian influenza (H5N1), from initial outbreak through mass transmission and global spread. It was from the tv show the fifth estate. http://www.cbc.ca/fifth/nextpandemic/index.html __________________

01-27-2006, 08:58 AM	#13
StuartD Sofa King Band Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Outside the box Posts: 29,903	potential, could, might, if, maybe.... blah blah blah. If I worried about any of those words, I'd be stressing 24/7. __________________ This is me on facebook This is me on twitter

01-27-2006, 08:59 AM	#14
crockett in a van by the river Industry Role: Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 76,806	I think I have the Bird Flu now.. __________________ In November, you can vote for America's next president or its first dictator.

01-27-2006, 09:05 AM	#17
NoCarrier We need more free porn Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Montreal Posts: 16,356	What the? Double post bug? __________________

01-27-2006, 09:32 AM	#18
dij Confirmed User Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 2,163

01-27-2006, 09:35 AM	#19
luv$ !$!$!$!$!$!$!$!$!$!$ Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Paper Street Posts: 6,158	Anyone else think it's kinda convenient that we're given something new to be scared about when George W's going through the ringer............................................ .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ......................again... __________________ Domain Auction - now till 12:01AM on the 2nd... Paper Streeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet Cash The Real Workout - Innocent High - Oye Loca - Her Freshman Year - Solo Interviews - This Girl Sucks. ** HQ Fresh ORIGINAL sites.

01-27-2006, 09:47 AM	#20
rip raster Confirmed User Join Date: May 2001 Location: Everville Posts: 2,851	I have always known that chickens would be the death of us all...I sure hope the fucking sky doesn't fall on us next

01-27-2006, 09:59 AM	#21
Lee Confirmed User Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Kernow Posts: 2,977	Saw that programme on TB the other day and they highlighted that these potential pandemics have to be "glamourous". They quoted something along the lines of last year TB killed 2 million worldwide whereas SARS killed 800 odd but you couldnt compare the press coverage. Whats the possibility that this could be the same?

01-27-2006, 10:14 AM	#22
potter Confirmed User Industry Role: Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Denver Posts: 6,559	If bird flu breaks out here is what you do. Step 1. Go to local gun shop and buy shotgun, assualt rifle, and lots of ammo. Step 2. Go to local army surplus store and buy crates of MREs. Step 3. Setup shop and cintinue to spread drama on GFY while sitting naked at the computer eating MREs. __________________