Will Blu-Ray kill DVD in 2006?

[Rictor]

Blu-Ray discs hold 50+ gigs of content and the Playstation 3 will play them so millions of Americans will have these players at launch. Sony has a huge catalog of movies and a good relationship with the other studios...Blu-Ray movies in true high definition with loads of extra features should be out next year. And you can fit an entire season of a show or the entire series on one disc with the storage capacity of over 10 dvds.

I think 2006 may be the year dvd gets mortally wounded, followed by a long decade long death like we saw with VHS. About the time DVD is completely dead in 2016, the next new technology to replace Blu-Ray will be out.

[Rictor]

Blu-ray, also known as Blu-ray Disc (BD) is the name of a next-generation optical disc format jointly developed by the Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA), a group of the world's leading consumer electronics, personal computer and media manufacturers (including Apple, Dell, Hitachi, HP, JVC, LG, Mitsubishi, Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, Samsung, Sharp, Sony, TDK and Thomson). The format was developed to enable recording, rewriting and playback of high-definition video (HD), as well as storing large amounts of data. A single-layer Blu-ray Disc can hold 25GB, which can be used to record over 2 hours of HDTV or more than 13 hours of standard-definition TV. There are also dual-layer versions of the discs that can hold 50GB.

While current optical disc technologies such as DVD, DVD±R, DVD±RW, and DVD-RAM use a red laser to read and write data, the new format uses a blue-violet laser instead, hence the name Blu-ray. Despite the different type of lasers used, Blu-ray products can easily be made backwards compatible through the use of a BD/DVD/CD compatible optical pickup and allow playback of CDs and DVDs. The benefit of using a blue-violet laser (405nm) is that it has a shorter wavelength than a red laser (650nm), which makes it possible to focus the laser spot with even greater precision. This allows data to be packed more tightly and stored in less space, so it's possible to fit more data on the disc even though it's the same size as a CD/DVD. This together with the change of numerical aperture to 0.85 is what enables Blu-ray Discs to hold 25GB/50GB.

With the rapid growth of HDTV, the consumer demand for recording HD programming is quickly rising. Blu-ray was designed with this application in mind and supports direct recording of the MPEG-2 TS (Transport Stream) used by digital broadcasts, which makes it highly compatible with global standards for digital TV. This means that HDTV broadcasts can be recorded directly to the disc without any quality loss or extra processing. To handle the increased amount of data required for HD, Blu-ray employs a 36Mbps data transfer rate, which is more than enough to record and playback HDTV while maintaining the original picture quality. In addition, by fully utilizing an optical disc's random accessing features, it's possible to playback video on a disc while simultaneously recording HD video.

Blu-ray is expected to replace VCRs and DVD recorders with the transition to HDTV over the coming years. The format is also likely to become a standard for PC data storage and HD movies in the future.

http://www.blu-ray.com/

[mrthumbs]

except for some movies that use a double as of now all that storage is overkill.

Same for CD's unless artists realease video's for all their track OR start producing
1000+ song albums all the storage is overhead.

[mrthumbs]

In other words: im sure future DVD players will support bluray and there will be some exclusive bluray video releases but DVD is here to stay for id say another 5-10 years
until its replaced by internet-tv where theres no carrying medium required.

[jimthefiend]

It better not, I have 600 dvds.

[jimthefiend]

Gonna make game designers real happy though.

[mrthumbs]

Originally Posted by jimthefiend

Gonna make game designers real happy though.

Yeah.. and movies in HD format.. but dont think thats something people are really waiting for.

It will bring us to an era where game and hollywood productions are in the same league.

[Rictor]

Originally Posted by mrthumbs

except for some movies that use a double as of now all that storage is overkill.

Same for CD's unless artists realease video's for all their track OR start producing
1000+ song albums all the storage is overhead.

Actually, dvd compression works by cutting out thousands of frames of the movie, so you are missing some quality on dvd. Also, the dvd format does not support full-length movies in high definition.

As more and more people get high-definition TVs in the next couple years, the superiority of Blu-ray over DVD will become pretty obvious.

[Rictor]

Also, cds are inferior in many ways to vinyl because they are a 16 bit format meaning parts of the analog sound are lost when converting to digital. DVD audio is 24 bit...still inferior to vinyl. Blu-Ray music discs would be quite superior in sound quality and would still contain the same number of songs as a cd. Of course, if you were happy with cd quality, you could put an entire cd box cd and several concert videos on one Blu-Ray disc. Personally, I'd rather have all my Beatles albums on one disc than dozens of separate cds. I doubt if the human ear could really tell the different between 16 bit, 24 bit, or higher, but it may still be considered a selling point to those who are seeking vinyl-quality sound and still believe cd sound quality sucks (most classical music fans will say this).

[Adultnet]

Originally Posted by Rictor

Actually, dvd compression works by cutting out thousands of frames of the movie, so you are missing some quality on dvd. Also, the dvd format does not support full-length movies in high definition.

As more and more people get high-definition TVs in the next couple years, the superiority of Blu-ray over DVD will become pretty obvious.

yeah this should be a hot when its ready and out ( A hard drive size cd...)

[Rictor]

It's not too far off considering it comes with the Playstation 3.

[perfectodollars-gabrio]

great info here...

[HDADULT]

2006 will be an interesting year for HDTV.

Don't rule out HD-DVD yet. Its main advantages are that it is cheaper than blu-ray and they can theoretically put a regular DVD movie on one side of the disc and have the HD-DVD version on the other side. So the movie studios can release a DVD that supports both the new HD-DVD players and the old standard DVD players, not leaving anyone out in the cold.

Blu-ray requires new players that are going to be expensive as hell (PS3 is rumoured to be $400 - $500 US), plus the discs themselves are much more expensive to produce and not backward compatible in any way.

Will be interesting to see what happens. If it wasn't for the fact PS3 was coming out with blu-ray support then I don't think it would stand a chance. That may be enough to tip the scales though.

[Libertine]

Originally Posted by mrthumbs

In other words: im sure future DVD players will support bluray and there will be some exclusive bluray video releases but DVD is here to stay for id say another 5-10 years
until its replaced by internet-tv where theres no carrying medium required.

Definitely. If only because people invested in DVD players and movies a relatively short while ago, and definitely don't want to trade in their entire collections already.

[EroticySteve]

Points for PS3
Points for innovation

Points lost for another damn technology that I'll most likely waste money on.

[invertiga]

Originally Posted by evildick

Don't rule out HD-DVD yet. Its main advantages are that it is cheaper than blu-ray and they can theoretically put a regular DVD movie on one side of the disc and have the HD-DVD version on the other side. So the movie studios can release a DVD that supports both the new HD-DVD players and the old standard DVD players, not leaving anyone out in the cold.

Major advantage if that comes into play, I'm sure i've read about hybrid blu-ray's doing a similar option also tho.

I'm for a new HD format but having two is going to be stupid. At the moment alot of people have invested major $ in DVD collections. I see a couple of problems here.
1) People aren't going to want to buy ALL the same movies all over again on a new format, especially older media that has already shown its best on DVD.
2) As with DVD I think introductory HD-DVD and BluRay are going to be like the introduction of DVD, barebones, poor quality*, while they tweak the technology, once again probley all original HD-DVD and BluRay will get released again a few years down the track as new special editions, like DVD, already been through that, I dont want to have to buy movies 5 times over.

As a consumer its a very shitty situation.

*before someone flames me, by poor quality i do understand they will look better than DVD, but DVD transfers have come along way since the original disc's especially with color reproductions, artifacting etc, i think the same will occur with people doing these new transfers.

[lakroze]

I don't think it would be 2006 but the next 2-3 years for sure

[uno]

I remember people with laser discs around 10 years ago. That was hilarious.

[milkit]

i dont see blu ray taking off.


hd-dvd all the way. Why? production wont need 100% new machines, just tweaks and upgrades. Also, compatibility with regular dvd's which blu ray cant do.

its too soon after the dvd revolution for yet another media revolution.

its not going to happen, ps3 or not. It will be mini disk all over again.

hd dvd will eventually be the standard, and i dont even see that being the standard for a while

[milkit]

also blu ray will be the demise of the ps3. UNLESS it does somehow become the standard, which it wont.

[Basic_man]

I think they will beggin to release Blu-Ray in 2006, but they will never kill the DVD that fast. Lets wait another 5 years before we all use blu-ray !

[Rictor]

Originally Posted by uno

I remember people with laser discs around 10 years ago. That was hilarious.

Laser discs are technically superior to dvds...they were just bulky and expensive. I loved the quality of laser discs but switching to disk 2 in the middle of watching Star Wars was a pain in the ass. When dvd came out the quality was kind of crappy at first on most releases as was mentioned earlier in this thread. DVD has come a long way and I'd say most movies are laser-disc quality now.

[uno]

Originally Posted by Rictor

Laser discs are technically superior to dvds...they were just bulky and expensive. I loved the quality of laser discs but switching to disk 2 in the middle of watching Star Wars was a pain in the ass. When dvd came out the quality was kind of crappy at first on most releases as was mentioned earlier in this thread. DVD has come a long way and I'd say most movies are laser-disc quality now.

Some of the first DVDs I got in the 90's were Goodfella's, Stargate, Se7en... All 3 of those movies you had to flip the god damn disc half way through.

I never had a laser disc player, just commenting on seeing laser discs laying around friends' houses. I don't remember the quality of em.

[uno]

Oh, and go to bed rictor.

[AlienQ - BANNED FOR LIFE]

My answer is no.

Sony is always to stingy with its proprietary shit and as always standards will take hold. I do not think there will be another VHS/Beta thing with Digital Media Disks.
I am willing to bet an HD standard comes about though for Home Entertainment systems that manufacturs will release.

JVC, Hitachi etc etc...

[AlienQ - BANNED FOR LIFE]

I think the yeah for HD disks will be 2007 or 8.

However I do think Swap media drives have some potential before hand.

[SGS]

With the speed that new movies are going from cinema straight to DVD now I would expect the Hollywood studios to have a say in this as it looks to be an excellent new revenue stream open to them with as far as HD and added value products.

[aico]

Originally Posted by mrthumbs

except for some movies that use a double as of now all that storage is overkill.

Actually, it's needed for True High-Def...

[BRISK]

It would be nice if some day, video on demand killed the need to have a physical copy of movies.

[aico]

Originally Posted by milkit

i dont see blu ray taking off.

Nov 9, 2005 - MGM to Support Blu-ray Disc Format

"Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Inc. (MGM), which owns the world's largest library of modern films, today announced its support of the Blu-ray Disc format. In cooperation with the Blu-ray Disc Association, MGM plans to begin releasing film and television titles from its world-renowned library when Blu-ray hardware launches in North America, Japan and Europe. "MGM's focus has always been to provide movie lovers complete access to the world's largest modern film library in the most technologically advanced formats," said Harry Sloan, Chairman and CEO of MGM Studios. "Adopting this new Blu-ray technology, with its expanded storage capacity and increased interactive capabilities, allows us to continue to provide our customers with the best movie viewing experience available." Consumers can now look forward to enjoying titles from franchises such as James Bond, Rocky and The Pink Panther in the Blu-ray Disc format."

Read more: MGM


Oct 5, 2005 - Panasonic to Release Blu-ray Drives and Media for PCs Next Spring

"Panasonic today announced that the company will introduce Blu-ray Disc drives for notebook and desktop computers along with 25GB and 50GB BD-R/BD-RE media by spring 2006. The notebook drive uses Panasonic's own laminated glass plate prism technology that enables the reduction in size of the optical pickup to one-twelfth (1/12) of the size of conventional pickups. Panasonic plans to ship samples of their BD drive for notebook PCs by the end of this year and commence commercial production by March 2006. Prior to the introduction of the notebook drive, Panasonic will ship samples of the half-height desktop version in October and start volume production by January 2006. The drives will support playback and recording of single-layer and dual-layer BDs as well as all types of recordable DVDs and CDs."

Read more: Panasonic

Originally Posted by evildick

Don't rule out HD-DVD yet.

Originally Posted by milkit

also blu ray will be the demise of the ps3. UNLESS it does somehow become the standard, which it wont.

Oct 2, 2005 - Paramount Home Entertainment to Support Blu-ray Disc Format

"Paramount Home Entertainment, which earlier this year announced support for the HD-DVD format, has decided that they will begin releasing high-definition movies in the Blu-ray format when hardware becomes available early next year. "We have been intrigued by the broad support of Blu-ray, especially the key advantage of including Blu-ray in PlayStation 3," said Thomas Lesinski, president of Paramount's Worldwide Home Entertainment. "After more detailed assessment and new data on cost, manufacturability and copy protection solutions, we have now made the decision to move ahead with the Blu-ray format." This announcement comes shortly after the movie studios supporting the HD-DVD format decided to postpone their US launch of HD-DVD, and swings the balance of studio support clearly in favor of Blu-ray. There's also speculation that Warner and Universal will follow suit shortly"

Read More

Aug 17, 2005 - Lions Gate Entertainment to Support Blu-ray Disc Format

Lions Gate Home Entertainment (LGHE), a division of Lions Gate Entertainment, announced today that it will release content on the new high definition Blu-ray Disc format. As part of its cooperation with the Blu-ray Disc Association, LGHE will begin releasing new films, TV programming and other titles from the company's vast library in that format when Blu-ray hardware launches in North America. "Lions Gate has always maintained the goal of offering the consumer the best quality product," said Steve Beeks, President, Lions Gate Entertainment. "Through Blu-ray, consumers will experience our library of movies with sound and picture quality beyond anything they could have ever imagined. Additionally, Blu-ray's storage capacity along with the level of copyright protection the format offers, the demonstrated manufacturability and acceptable cost proposition, made it the perfect choice for Lions Gate at this time." More details about specific titles for Blu-ray will be announced by LGHE in the coming months.

Read More


Jul 29, 2005 - Twentieth Century Fox to Support Blu-ray Disc Format

"Twentieth Century Fox, a member of the Board of Directors of the Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA) since October 2004, announced today that it will release content on the new high definition Blu-ray Disc format through its subsidiary Twentieth Century Fox Home Entertainment. "Blu-ray is a superior high definition technology that is a full step forward in the evolution of consumer packaged media," added Mike Dunn, President Worldwide, Twentieth Century Fox Home Entertainment. "For consumers, the release of our films on Blu-ray will provide in-home entertainment beyond anything they have imagined. On the business side, the advanced functionality, picture quality and data capacity at a competitive manufacturing cost along with 'room for growth' as new consumer usage options are developed, fully realizes the promise of a next generation format and represents the future of home entertainment." The company will begin releasing new films, TV programming and other titles from Fox's vast celebrated library of best-selling film and television programming when Blu-ray hardware launches in North America, Japan, and Europe."

Read More

[Nydahl]

Originally Posted by jimthefiend

It better not, I have 600 dvds.

heheh - the same thing coming to my mind

[aico]

Originally Posted by Nydahl

heheh - the same thing coming to my mind

I am sure most, if not all, players will support DVD format as well....

[bl8dlust]

With its piracy-protection system, blu-ray might just eventually kill itself.

If you insert a disc without the proper protection keys, the player stops working. If you try to open the player it will stop working. To "reactivate" it you need to hook up online and download updates.

You will also require updates every 3 months to keep a player working.

http://www.itavisen.no/php/art.php?id=256720
http://www.aacsla.com/
http://www.digital-cp.com/home
http://cryptome.org/hdcp-v1.htm

[aico]

Originally Posted by bl8dlust

With its piracy-protection system, blu-ray might just eventually kill itself.

Since Piracy is the BIGGEST concern right now of all the studios, I am willing to bet they will prefer to have their titles on Blu-ray. Studios are losing tons of money on DVD piracy.

And people seem to prefer Blu-ray over HD-DVD

"Jul 13, 2005 - Study Shows Consumers Prefer Blu-ray Disc Over HD-DVD

A new poll suggests that as the battle between Blu-ray Disc and HD-DVD heats up, consumers overwhelmingly prefer Blu-ray Disc as their format of choice. In the poll, conducted by Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates, a nationally recognized strategic polling firm, consumers were given a side-by-side comparison of the two formats. Out of the 1200 consumers surveyed 58% preferred Blu-ray Disc, 26% were undecided and only 16% preferred HD-DVD. Of those consumers who indicated that they are extremely interested in purchasing the next-generation format, 66% favored Blu-ray, 19% were undecided and only 15% preferred HD-DVD. Among the key reasons consumers preferred Blu-ray were the ability to play the discs in more CE devices, personal computers and gaming consoles, backward compatibility with current DVD media, disc capacity and the ability to record large amounts of high-definition or standard definition video and data."

[HDADULT]

Originally Posted by aico

Since Piracy is the BIGGEST concern right now of all the studios, I am willing to bet they will prefer to have their titles on Blu-ray. Studios are losing tons of money on DVD piracy.

And people seem to prefer Blu-ray over HD-DVD

"Jul 13, 2005 - Study Shows Consumers Prefer Blu-ray Disc Over HD-DVD

A new poll suggests that as the battle between Blu-ray Disc and HD-DVD heats up, consumers overwhelmingly prefer Blu-ray Disc as their format of choice. In the poll, conducted by Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates, a nationally recognized strategic polling firm, consumers were given a side-by-side comparison of the two formats. Out of the 1200 consumers surveyed 58% preferred Blu-ray Disc, 26% were undecided and only 16% preferred HD-DVD. Of those consumers who indicated that they are extremely interested in purchasing the next-generation format, 66% favored Blu-ray, 19% were undecided and only 15% preferred HD-DVD. Among the key reasons consumers preferred Blu-ray were the ability to play the discs in more CE devices, personal computers and gaming consoles, backward compatibility with current DVD media, disc capacity and the ability to record large amounts of high-definition or standard definition video and data."

Nice find. In the end the consumer decides for reasons that might be unknown at this point. Over the long run I think Hard Drive storage/playback is the going to win. If you read Mark Cubins blog on the subject he makes sum very valid points. Whether you like him personally or not he is a visionary and made tons trying to figure out "whats next".

Hard drives are getting cheaper, faster, smaller. Thats all I want to play with for portable media.

I just bought a 200 Gig external HD for $99! The thing is awsome and its for nothing but movies. The same one probably coast $1000 a few years ago.

I simply want to purhcase an HD Movie online, download it to my hard drive and play it out of my PC to my HDTV Home Theater. Is that too much tooo ask?

[Serge Litehead]

There's another holographic technology on horizon, the disks will be able to hold 300 Gigs of data with access rate at 120 Mbps. as article said we could see it in production around 2007-08. sorry got no link.

[Marshal]

Originally Posted by evildick

Don't rule out HD-DVD yet. Its main advantages are that it is cheaper than blu-ray and they can theoretically put a regular DVD movie on one side of the disc and have the HD-DVD version on the other side. So the movie studios can release a DVD that supports both the new HD-DVD players and the old standard DVD players, not leaving anyone out in the cold.

Blu-ray requires new players that are going to be expensive as hell (PS3 is rumoured to be $400 - $500 US), plus the discs themselves are much more expensive to produce and not backward compatible in any way.

Will be interesting to see what happens. If it wasn't for the fact PS3 was coming out with blu-ray support then I don't think it would stand a chance. That may be enough to tip the scales though.

I'm sure the same thing would happen as it was with Sony BetaMax and JVC VHS years ago...