real estate bubble? - GoFuckYourself.com

HighRoller · 11-13-2005, 10:52 PM

http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/DRI/EDRIFB06/

woj · 11-13-2005, 11:03 PM

interesting read...

latinasojourn · 11-14-2005, 12:47 AM

well, partly true.

the folks that are vulnerable are those holding very short term ARMs.

right now interest rates are going up a quarter point/month---IMO this will go to half point/month first quarter 2006.

but there is a minor mitigating factor which will "soften" the landing to the RE bubble "burst".

inflation in the USA is going to come back big time. the bush war overseas, and major deficit spending will force the US govt to print money like crazy---so folks hold long term low interest rate fixed mortgages will be somewhat protected because they will be paying back loans with inflated dollars.

the trick will be to hang on to their overpriced properties---because if they can just hang on for 36 months inflation will bail them out.

look for 12%/year inflation in 2007.

FlyingIguana · 11-14-2005, 08:02 AM

there's still a lot of slack capacity from the late 90's bubble. energy prices will soften now(or won't rocket like it has been) that the fed rate is above inflation as it should be.

i don't see high inflation coming in 07. maybe upwards of 5% but there's just not enough steam in the economy to shoot prices up given international pricing pressures. companies just can't raise prices that much because consumers won't be able to handle it.

real estate peaked this summer stock wise, its downhill from here in most markets

Screaming · 11-14-2005, 08:02 AM

It is bound to pop here very shortly.

bringer · 11-14-2005, 08:06 AM

its fun watching people fail

11-13-2005, 10:52 PM	#1
HighRoller Confirmed User Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: MN Posts: 1,037	real estate bubble? http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/DRI/EDRIFB06/

11-13-2005, 11:03 PM	#2
woj <&(©¿©)&> Industry Role: Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Chicago Posts: 47,882	interesting read... __________________ Custom Software Development, email: woj#at#wojfun#.#com to discuss details or skype: wojl2000 or gchat: wojfun or telegram: wojl2000 Affiliate program tools: Hosted Galleries Manager Banner Manager Video Manager Wordpress Affiliate Plugin Pic/Movie of the Day Fansign Generator Zip Manager

11-14-2005, 08:02 AM	#5
Screaming I can change this!!!!! Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 18,972	It is bound to pop here very shortly. __________________

11-14-2005, 08:06 AM	#6
bringer i have man boobies Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: van down by the river Posts: 13,082	its fun watching people fail __________________ 333-765-551

11-14-2005, 12:47 AM	#3
latinasojourn Confirmed User Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 3,191	well, partly true. the folks that are vulnerable are those holding very short term ARMs. right now interest rates are going up a quarter point/month---IMO this will go to half point/month first quarter 2006. but there is a minor mitigating factor which will "soften" the landing to the RE bubble "burst". inflation in the USA is going to come back big time. the bush war overseas, and major deficit spending will force the US govt to print money like crazy---so folks hold long term low interest rate fixed mortgages will be somewhat protected because they will be paying back loans with inflated dollars. the trick will be to hang on to their overpriced properties---because if they can just hang on for 36 months inflation will bail them out. look for 12%/year inflation in 2007.

11-14-2005, 08:02 AM	#4
FlyingIguana aspiring banker Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: toronto Posts: 10,870	there's still a lot of slack capacity from the late 90's bubble. energy prices will soften now(or won't rocket like it has been) that the fed rate is above inflation as it should be. i don't see high inflation coming in 07. maybe upwards of 5% but there's just not enough steam in the economy to shoot prices up given international pricing pressures. companies just can't raise prices that much because consumers won't be able to handle it. real estate peaked this summer stock wise, its downhill from here in most markets