:anon . .50

Yes watch closely. Because the issue is illegal immigration and if a 3rd party candidates unseats the republicans it will show the party is vulnerable to a split in 2008

Orange county is a testing ground for the entire country.

1. Orange county is about as much of a testing ground as Washington, D.C.
2. Illegal immigration means NOTHING to those voting in the "fly-over" states.
3. ~55 electoral votes will go democratic in the next presidential race regardless on the OC vote next year.

i vote for democrats... ;)

You are a very smart person. One of the few informed people on gfy.

Not likely

someone shoot bush



fbi you can suck my cock!

This is one of those times I am forced to ask, how old are you?

Hillary can't beat a McCain/Giuliani ticket. But she likely could beat any other combination of popular conservative candidates.

I wonder if the Right will be smart enough to field that ticket, or if Giuliani would even accept a VP role if he lost the nomination...quite a step down from his $100k-per-weekend speaking engagements that he's pulling in currently... :1orglaugh

No you won't.

You have that blooming right to arms in your constitution and it was partially put there in an attempt to keep goverment in check.

If no one has taken arms against the american goverment yet. Then they never will. It's an empty threat.

haha...maybe if the liberals ever get their shit together.

odds are you probably dont even know what the fuck you're talking about...

Fool me once, shame on you, fool me two times, shame on you, fool me three times, shame on you, fool me four times...


Give me a break. The people have been stupid enough to vote for a Bush 3 times already, and they're not getting any smarter.

wars and bibles or taxes and stupid laws? when do we get a third option?

We'll see how things go in the midterm elections...the Republicans gained a lot of offices during the last midterm elections and then won the presidency two years later.

it's the cycle...

republicans promise lower taxes and fuck everything up, then a democrat gets elected, raises taxes to fix all of the fuck ups, then the dems loose the next election because people like promises of lower taxes.

there is one major flaw in ticket. Well actually three flaws. Two of the flaws are the guys on the ticket and the other is that neither of these guys can court the hardcore conservative christian right the bush can. Bush got them because he is born again and thumps the bible and they like that. McCain is to much of a centerist for the conservative right to get behind him and Giuliani had a girlfriend living with him before his divorce was even final. Also, if I remeber correctly, he left his wife for this woman. Those are certianly not the values of the hardcore right and without them it's hard for a repub to win the white house. Bush and Rove know this so do the conservatives so don't be surprised to see someone we have never heard of on a ticket that can court this group. If they are not please they will end up voting for someone like Buchanan or someone else and not the guy the repubs want.

In the end it all comes down to momentum and baggage. Things look bad for the repubs right now and they will get worse before they get better. All the problems listed in this thread plus the fact that many more moderate repubs are splintering away from bush so they can distance themselves from an unpopular president during their re-election next year and other are setting themselves up to run for president. Add in all the legal issues that they are facing: Delay, the CIA leak etc and it could be bad for them in the near future. I will not be at all surprised to see them lose seats in congress next year.

If, when the elections cycle starts things are looking good in Iraq, there haven't been any more disasters or terrorist attacks, the economy is growing and the CIA/Delay/Lott issues have gone away resonably quietly the repubs can and will claim that they are doing a good job and many of the sheep will belive them. Just 2 weeks ago Bush was at an all time low in the polls. 10 days later he's made a bunch of a trips to the disaster areas, fired some people that he should have never hired and suddenly he's going up in the poles again. And this is only a week and people forget.

I still belive, however, that people are ready for a change. If the dems put together a good ticket they will be very hard to beat. Look back and see how things tend to run. After one party has been in power for a while people tend to want a change and it's not like Bush won in landslids. He won the first time because he took Florida because of a confusing ballot. He won the second time against someone that many consider to be on of, if not the most, liberal politicians in the coutry. And he won by about 100K votes in Ohio and there was all kinds of "glitches" in the voting machines.

Conspiricy aside, he barely got elected the two times he did. both times was agains weak candidates and he has done and overwhelmingly poor job. The repubs have their work cut out for them if they want to retain the white house.

long post, sorry for babbling.

the one thing the dems need to do is something the repubs have figured out. the repubs know that about 20% of the population is too liberal to vote for them. It doesn't matter what they say or do, that group of people will never vote for them. they knows this and pander to their base which is the hard conservative right. They don't worry about offending or upseting the far left, these people were never going to vote for them anyway. The dems need to understand that it's the same the other way. the hard right will never vote for them even if they recite bible verse out their asses. But the dems are always afraid of offending people so they don't attack them and pander to their base. And this costs them.

Also it used to be that the dems were the party of the working class and that is switching. Look at the south, and many middle class areas they are all repub now. The dems need to go back to these people and hammer into them how the repubs have scrwed them. They need to start working on winning back the middle and lower class before they are ever going to go far as a party.

either that or find another guy like Clinton who's not afraid to attack his opponent. Bush had been such a failure as a governer in texas and as a businesman, and at most things he had done in life up until then. But gore never brought this up. Clinton would have reminded you about it ever time he opened his mouth and he would have destroyed bush. the dems need someone like that.

The average American citizen doesn't give a shit about any of that stuff at election time. They will vote for whichever guy promises to unload the most whoop-ass on Muslims, criminals, the poor, atheists, europeans, liberals and pornographers. Simple as that. It's been that way for 30 years - Clinton and Carter were anomolies. Chances are pretty good that the next several Presidents will be Republican.

Hehe Cute

Rove plays chess while others play checkers and tic tac toe. IF Gilchrist wins in Orange County it's further indication the Republican party base is in danger of splitting. That's one of the reasons why a "guest worker program" is on the agenda for Bush this fall. Bush and Rove want to court (ASAP) as many hispanic and immigrant voters as possible to counteract the loss of republican base to candidates like Gilchrist http://www.jimgilchrist.com/

Vasquez is another Republican threatening to split the party in Idaho
http://www.vasquezforidaho.org/

Tancredo is already doing it in Colorado
http://www.tancredo.org/

McCain has a much bigger central range than any polarizing republican. He can pull in enough of the moderates in the country from both sides to not have to pander to the hardcore right wing religous base. They will still vote for him anyway(not en masse like they did for Bush) simply because they don't want someone they would perceive as an atheistic liberal.

My brother-in-law is in Iraq right now. Voted for Bush both times. I spent a week down at Fort Benning in Georgia earlier this year. Everyone I met there voted for Bush twice and think he's the greatest thing since sliced bread. They also believe we've either already found Iraq's WMD or that they are there and we just haven't found them yet. It's pretty shocking.

No way in hell they will nominate Hillary. We need to get a democrat in office first to get things back to normal. Then after a few terms start toying around with female presidents.

It would be stupid to go straight to Hillary and blow thier only chance.

You got that all wrong... it's: :upsidedow

It all depends . If he is the only option he will get some of the religous right vote. If there is someone that is like Bush and can stongly court the religous right they will draw some of that away from him. Many people in the middle don't like McCain because he sometimes says some pretty crazy things. Personally I like the guy, but one of the things he has going against him is many in his party don't like him.

Your reply has merit, but you're miscalculating on the "religious vote" going away. I'd put it to you this way:

Who ELSE would they vote for?

They're certainly not about to vote for Hillary. Bush pandered to them, patronized them, and now they've got nowhere else to go. Every other choice besides McCain/Giuliani puts their vote in favor of a "baby killer" (their words). They're in the bag. That's why the party can move to the middle in 08 under strong leadership, in fact, I fully expect McCain to RUN on a platform that looks very similar to Clinton/Gore's '92 platform: "Change".

They'll distance themselves from the bathring Bush is leaving behind in the tub, promise to end the war and withdraw all remaining troops, etc, etc, and believe me, they'll get more of the left to cross lines and vote for them than Hillary will get from the religious right.

It's in the bag if Giuliani accepts the secondary VP slot. If not, and it's McCain with someone like Mit Romney, or another less known Replublican, it's much closer.

Just answer the question . . . there is a reason I asked.

Exactly. Probably the only way the Democrats can screw up their chances of winning the White House is to have Hillary run.

I would agree that any repub that wants to win will need to run on a platform of change and that they are moving in the right direction but they need to do more and that they can fix what has been done wrong. They will have to show themselves as being conservative, but a different kind of conservative than bush.

About the religous right they could go right back to where they were before - on the fringe. Before Bush and Rove mobilized them they often splintered their votes among more fringe candidates and people like buchanan or pat robertson and many just didn't vote. Bush was able to mobilize them and get them to vote. Much will be determined with who Bush makes his next Supreme Court nominee. If he goes for a hardcore conservative they will get back behind him and love him more than ever even if that person doesn't get approved by the senate. If he goes moderate they may move away from him, most of them were unhappy with Roberts because he is not conservative enough.

I think the hard right is something that the repubs take for granted as being there for them. I don't think it's a given. They are fickle and need to be mde happy. McCain/Giuliani could do that but it will be an uphill fight.

Another problem with this ticket is it has no southern guy on it. If the Dems have a ticket with southern ties they could easily steal some states away from the red.

Actually the religious right hasn't been "on the fringe" for 20 years. Reagan brought them into the fold via his emotional anti-abortion rhetoric, and they've been in the right's pocket ever since. And their position has nothing to do with Supreme Court nominees, 90% of the South still doesn't even know who Roberts even is, lol. Yes, Rove's impressive voter registration moves and mobilization at the local church level helped get voting percentages up on Election Day, but again, those fierce anti-abortionists would never contemplate going back to the left.

No, the religious right is as tied to the Republican party as the party is percieved to be to them. They're not going anywhere. McCain moving to the center is inconsequential in terms of impacting their votes, because as I mentioned, no one is going to cross party lines for Hillary. She's too polarizing of a figure. She's not Bill Clinton, that's for sure. Bill could get Conservative Democrats to listen to his fiscal responsibility. He could get them to "buy in" to his "I'm a Southerner" routine. Hillary is a Yankee now, it's as clear to them as night and day. There's no Southern loyalty for her, hence those same Conservative Democrats will stay voting exactly as they have since Bill Clinton left office: For candidates on the Right.

It's the Right's to lose in 08, with the right ticket it won't even be as close as it was in 04.

06 will tell the tale. If Democrats get control back , expect bush to be impeached.

I hope that was a joke.

This is actually possible. In time of War the 2 term limit can be overruled. I also heard/read that regarding the 2 term limit. That's pretty scary eh?. However if Bush can't run no more his brother is next in line. Check out Domains for his name, jebforpresident, etc etc etc,, they are all taken, every one of them.

Jeeez

nice photoshop

she learned that from Monica. :1orglaugh

You're missing the point. The point is illegal immigration could be the issue that splits the republican party base and help to send a democrat to the presidency in 08 (ala ross perot)

Well I was right about orange county. The election results are in and Jim GIlchrist, running as an independant, pulled enough votes from the republicans to get a second election in December. The single issue of illegal immigration just took down the republican candidate in orange county from winning the 50% needed to go to washington. This is PROOF that the republican base can be split in border states. The 2006 congressional elections will be interesting...
http://www.jimgilchrist.com/article.php?id=64

Ok - now back to looking at naked chicks :winkwink:

hahahaha good luck on a dem for pres

Gore in '08 :1orglaugh
Clinton in '08 :1orglaugh
Dean in '08 :1orglaugh
Biden in '08 :1orglaugh
McCain/Pataki or Pataki/McCain is the winning ticket :thumbsup

A lot of interesting ideas in this thread. However, be careful what you wish for. Many Democrats are also hostile to our industry. Many radical feminist would just as soon cut your balls off as view HC erotica which they equate to the exploitation of women.

Take the time to investigate the background of each candidate before you endorse them. Know how they stand on the First Amendment, your right to privacy, the Patriot Act, and the adult industry in general before you give them the :thumbsup.

Just my thoughts....