Greg B

Well, oil has hit a new high and is on it's way to $68 a barrel. They say if this new hurricane hits it could go as high as $70.

Mark my words. Oil will hit $100 a barrel easy by Winter. All the bad guys need is one terrorist attempt or natural disaster.

Rui

I'm pretty sure that the barrel will indeed reach $100 by Winter...

OzMan

and if you're wrong?...

Do I get a free tank of gas or what?

Greg B

Glad someone else around here sees the scam on the horizon. I feel sorry for you guys in Europe. I heard petrol hit $7 a gallon or liter???

WarChild

Well at least the United States won't have to worry because they're stealing it by the boat load from Iraq, right?

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Greg B

Ja, uh-right.

Iraq ain't the problem. Saudi Arabia and our buttlickin' oil men are. I'm surprised Bin Laden hasn't shown up in Switzerland with a new crop of hotties.

WarChild

WHAT?

I thought there was a pipeline from Iraq to Cheney's house now.

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Mako

The problem has nothing to do with supply, as the GFY political police instantly knee-jerk to.

The problem is that refiniery capacity is maxed out, there are literally millions of barrels of oil waiting to be refined, but we don't have the volume to do it because petro companies haven't invested in a new refinery in 22 years.

Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations recently have begun cutting back daily bpd shipments because there's simply no point. No ability for refineries to process it. Blame the administration all you like, Clinton similarly let the oil companies operate unregulated for nearly a decade. Instead of building up to meet future needs, the petros simply gave the money back to shareholders as dividends in order to spike their share prices higher.

I love capitalism, best system in the world if you're not a lazy fuck, but when it comes to the petro companies it might be time for regulation.

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demented

Paid almost $2.80 today.. Shit is killing me

Greg B

Warchild, does 'Dream Submitter' really work? Is it worth it? I'll go check it out via your sig.

Greg B

Mako you're right on target. Can't argue one bit, BUT the refinery situation was propped up by the Saudis and our guys. They knew damn well that no one would stand up because they stood to make a fortune down the road.

Your analysis is dead on beans accurate but there's more to play here.

Now watch what happens after this next hurricane. If it curves back into the gulf and picks up steam and fucks up the oil rigs you'll definitely see an over the $70 price real fast.

theking

You are correct. US oil companies claim that the cost of building new refineries is prohibitive because of EPA and OSHA regulations and costly delays would be prohibitive because of the same. The Saudi's offered to build two new refineries in the US but this was nixed by the powers that be.

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Greg B

Ja, well look at item prices at the supermarkets. The wives will be bitching about it soon.

WarChild

It really works. I know a number of people that are using it, including myself. I was using Advanced Submitter for a long time, but I have been using DS for over a year now. I would never go back.

Their support will convert your AS database for you, and they'll even walk you through the software in a one on one enviroment. Buy it and you won't be sorry. There's no ref code in my signature, I have nothing to gain if you buy it.

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Greg B

But in our line of business oil prices are not a big problem unless the surfers can't afford signups because their dollars are going into their gas tanks.

Outside of that, I don't ship, receive, except buying a few items over the web that are shipped. So far my budget hasn't been hit at all. For you guys with families and employees I'll listen to your tips at economizing.

Greg B

Fuckin' A! I know you know what you're talking about so I'm sold. I'll letcha know how it works out! If it boosts the stats I owe ya a free toon. Stand by for the next 30 days of testing.

WarChild

Sounds good man. Just remember that you get out of your database what you put in to it. Customization, tracking and more customization are the path to more gallery traffic. Feel free to hit me up with any questions you might have.

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spanky part 2

Funny, I don't remember gas being this high with Clinton in office. Seems very strange that since the "oil president" got in office, oil has done nothing but go up up up. Think about it, the pres and vp aren't worried about being re-elected. They don't give a flying fuck about you and me, they are just gonna let the energy companies fuck america for the next 3 years, then they reap the profits afterwards.

If you think anything else, I have some ocean front property in North Dakota that I would like to sell you at a great price.

Greg B

Well said Spanky2.

Bottom line is how does it affect business? Are surfers using their cash to survive and not buying memberships?

Mako

Repeat after me:

-All economies are cyclical, sitting Presidents either reap the rewards or suffer the penalties of being in office at the right or wrong time.

-China's middle class is growing in size at a faster rate than the entire United States' population is growing combined. This in turn has led to automobile and truck sales rates exploding at a logrithmic levels in China as families purchase their family's "first" car ever. All of that results in increased demand, particularly of refinieries, which is why we find ourselves at this point.

-Crying like a liberal pussy about how "evil" the administration is won't get you, nor your party anywhere. Clinton wasn't nearly as destructive to the country as the Right would have you believe, and Bush similarly is nowhere close to the demon Lefties insist he is. Think outside the box. It's not black and white.

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Rui

A liter is about $1.5 here attm...

crockett

The terrorist organization we should be taking over is OPEC.

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In November, you can vote for America's next president or its first dictator.

Gottis

Who gives a fuck, we're rich as hell over here.

KRL

Awesome!!

I saw this coming and got back into oil and gas deals this year.

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Greg B

Smart man!

reynold

How I wish you were right.

Greg B

Ahh! I just saw $3.29 for premium!!!

reed_4

Don't worry flying capet's on sale.

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PixeLs

..and violence and chaos followed.

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Spunky

It's only a matter of time..supply and demand ..time to look at hybrids

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tony286

They will not let gas get that high if it does there will be a real push for alternative fuels. They dont want that, so the price will then go down.

Tat2Jr

I'm going hybrid on my next car.

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jayeff

The more reasonable media outlets will qualify statements about "record prices". Unfortunately, such disclaimers are usually missed and often missing.

But the reality is that until average pump prices reach $3.12 and a barrel of oil costs almost $87.00, neither pump nor barrel prices are setting new inflation-adjusted records, only nominal ones. The actual inflation-adjusted records were set between January and March 1981.

Another reality is that consumer spending on energy has declined from 9% of the total to only 6% in the past 24 years, although the US does have the dubious distinction of being the only industrialized nation whose motorists have become less energy efficient during this period. The reason is SUV's, 5% of the national fleet in 1990, but over 50% today. If we would switch to more efficient vehicles (a trend Detroit expects to accelerate sharply when pump prices go over $3 a gallon), we could reduce our consumption by 1+ million barrels a day, which should translate into a drop of more than 15% in the barrel price since the US is still by far the world's largest oil buyer.

Refining capacity is an issue and basically, without government handouts to pay for new refineries, the companies concerned are better off as things are. No-one really sees long-term pricing going anywhere but up and if Detroit is right, as prices rise, demand will fall. Comsumption doesn't need to be far below its present level for existing refining capacity (except sometimes during the spring when plants are taken offline for maintenance) to be adequate.

killshot

I paid $3.11 a gallon for gas today... thank god i don't have to commute to work

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BlueDesignStudios

you saw the hurricanes coming at the start of this year?

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tristan_D

good thing I am no longer going to an office, working my ass off at home.

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spanky part 2

Why is it that republicans think that they have the market cornered on patriotism. It takes more balls to stand up to the bullshit than it takes to get in line and take it.

Look at facts idiot. If everything is cyclical, then every time a republican has been in office the cycle has been down. Strange how that happens.

As for your simple ideas on Bush ruining the country. What else are you gonna call it. He has presided over the largest negative turnaround in our countries history and is making Reagans budget deficit look like a surplus.

Last time I looked, the troops that are getting killed in Iraq aren't all conservatives. Why are republicans so fucking angry at everyone, that they need to start wars. Must be their conservative women they are with. Maybe we need to have our republican leaders date some of our "liberel pussies" that you are talking about, then maybe they wouldn't have all that pent up testoterone.

jayeff

I believe that the people pulling Bush's strings make him the most dangerous president this country has ever had, but disinformation doesn't serve anyone.

The reality is that the Congressional Budget Office forecast the deficit for the current year will be down $81 billion from last year to $331 billion. Horrendous as that number is, it represents 2.7% of our Gross Domestic Product, less than half the level in 1983 when Reagan was in office. If the forecast for next year proves correct, the deficit will be 2.4% of GDP which compares far better with the average of 1.6% since WW2 than the headlines would ever have you believe.

The fragility of our economy has much less to do with hard numbers, some of which - productivity and growth in particular - are actually very good, than with its vulnerability to factors we cannot control. There is globalization which has a direct effect on (real) employment levels and wages; we have heard the President admit that we can do little about rising oil prices; and it is slowly seeping into our consciousness that the growth of China as an economic force is unlikely to be good news.

The biggest problem any occupant of the White House faces today is how to persuade a dumbed-down public to start to think about these other issues and how to deal with them. Bush and the Republicans have a particular problem in that since their appeal is largely built on flag-waving patriotism, it is especially difficult to admit such vulnerabilities.

u-Bob

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EroticySteve

Totally ridiculous. I'm going to get rid of the Mercedes SUV and get a Diesel Jetta if this keeps up.

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Greg B

That's what I'm talkin' about!

Here in Los Angeles if you have an SUV and premium is at $2.80-$3.00+ and you try hitting the highway you might as well light your own ass on fire. You're burning sitting gas but the stops and starts kill ya. You sit hours on the freeway trapped!

That's why I only drive mini-RVs and conversion vans with a bathroom in them. It's horrible watching people trapped in traffic having to leave their cars to do their business like animals.

Greg B

Oh they're not worried about alternative fuels and alternative energy technologies. They'll do what they've done for the past 70 years:

Kill or buy off anyone who invents alternate fuels and alternate energy technologies.

Americans won't bitch about gas and oil until the prices of beer and cigarettes and dope go up.

Stop and think about it.

In the early 1960's then President Kennedy set a guidline of sending men to the fucking moon and returning them safely within 10 years.

It was done with flying colors and they didn't have anywhere near the computers we have today and we can't even get a ship into orbit and back without some shit falling off of it.

Here we are over 30 years later after the first big energy crisis and we STILL haven't solved the problem???

What part of " Dumb fucking asswipe chimp-for-brains " did we Americans 'not' understand???

It's the same families and cohorts ripping off the people of the world over and over again.

Don't believe me? Just google ' dead microbiologists ' and see how it's done to shut people up.

We're living in the prequel part of 'Mad Max' and 'The Road Warrior'

dready

Supply has everything to do with it. Oil companies know their days are numbered unless they make the switch to alternative energy sources. Why do you think BP changed their name from 'British Petroleum' to 'Beyond Petroleum'?

The world is running out of oil. It has nothing to do with refineries, politics, or war. It is supply and demand. That is all.

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ICQ: 91139591

rickholio

Using GDP to measure the economic health of a country is an extremely blunt instrument at best, and often misleading. There are more and imo better methods to measure improvements 'on the ground', as it were.

For instance, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average earnings increase from 2000-2004 was 3.86%, 3.22%, 3.12%, 1.71% and 2.39% respectively. Now compare those increases against inflation to get real wage growth... For those years, annual inflation was 3.4%, 2.8%, 1.6%, 2.3% and 2.7% respectively. Take away inflation from wages and overall wage growth becomes .46%, .42%, 1.52%, -.59% and-.31% respectively for 2000-2004. A meagre 1.5% increase in 5 years, and that doesn't factor in increases in energy prices, health care, insurance or any of the other things that people would generally consider essential to their lives. Most people are seeing more and more of their money go towards just staying afloat (the anecdotal 'heat or medication' conundrum)... and with 'bubbles' Greenspan cranking interest rates at every opportunity, even base inflation will start climbing to difficult rates.

Take also the jobs situation. Over the last 5 years, over 2.8 million manufacturing jobs, 2.3 million goods producing jobs and 550k high tech jobs have disappeared. Now, some of that is due to natural rebound from the dot-com bust (particularly in the high tech area), but manufacturing has been sliding downhill fast, and those have traditionally been quite good paying jobs. Those have been replaced largely with service industry (wal*mart and/or burger flipping), construction (housing bubble), government and health industry jobs. Of the three, only health pays wages anywhere even close to the levels of the lost work on average.

Bush started his term in January of 2001 with 132,454,000 million jobs. The total non-farm payroll number for July 2005 is 133,786,000. This means that the economy created 1,332,000 jobs over 4 and a half years. However, just to keep up with natural attrition (people shifting jobs) and new kids coming into the workforce, 150,000 new jobs a month must be created just to keep up. Over the same time span, the economy should have created 8,100,000 new jobs to maintain at par, with no real economic growth. That means the Bush administration is currently 6,768,000 jobs behind what is needed just to tread water. To make matters worse, 30% of the jobs created between winter 2001 and winter 2004 are temp positions. Additionally, we know from repeated anecdotes of people working 2 or more "McJobs" in an attempt to get the equivalent of one decent paying job... which factors into those 'productivity' numbers.

Spot on, here. It's a hard sell for anyone to preach the virtues of hard work, conservation, frugal living and savings on a country which has been in a consumerist orgy for the last 2 or so generations particularly when it's growing increasingly difficult for the lower 2/3rds to even save any money for a rainy day. So many people out there's net worth now is tied entirely to the value of their property and god only knows what will become of those poor bastards who are leveraged out the ass when the land bubble pops. The party will have to come to an end eventually, and I pity anyone caught up in it when it comes.

Of course, for the top 10%, it'll be like a new gold rush... which kind of makes it difficult to GET people in the white house that want it changed.

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Dollarmansteve

The significant difference between the rise in the current rise in the price of oil and other such highs (eg early 1980s) is that there is no single external shock that is driving the price up. The increases are fueled (no pun intended) by several factors:

- speculation to the upside bases on emerging demand issues especially from large, developing countries (eg China)
- speculation of some event that will affect oil production
- Real supply vs. Demand factors (long term and short term, eg seasonal changes in demand, popularity of gas-guzzlers, real demand in countries like china)

The reason this rise is manageable is because it is not volatile. Like inflation, rising or dropping prices are manageable when they are predictable. That is, high inflation is ok if you know that its going to be high. Volatility and shocks are problematic. The market has basically priced in a fairly large shock already, which would lessen the effect if there were an actual shock.

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Dollarmansteve

Also, for those of you who are griping about the price of gas, you can hedge yourself by participating in the rise in price by purchasing oil and energy related stocks and income products. There are a ton of energy ETFs that pay out nice dividends that increase along with the price of oil.

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yys

The worlds not running out of oil; it's running out of cheap oil.

Dollarmansteve

Agreed. And, the reason the world will never 'run out' of oil should be clear to anyone who's taken even the most basic economics course. If oil were ever really that scarce it would be reflected in the price - when the price of using oil is prohibitive vis a vis other products, then there's something called 'substitution' that takes place.

Is there an online university that offers ECO101 for cheap? As anyone who participates in these threads should be forced to take it before speaking.

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I died.

rickholio

I don't know if I can agree with you in terms of volitility. Admittedly oil prices aren't bouncing around like a superball on speed, but on this day 1 year ago it was hovering around the $40/bbl mark. A 70% increase of any basic material over a year is going to cause pain and suffering, let alone the material that underpins the entire economic welfare of the country.

Also, if by "the market" you mean Nymex, I'd be inclined to agree... to a point. I think there's still plenty of upward to go. Depends on how cold this winter gets... if it's a serious chiller, I don't think the $100 barrel is entirely out of line this year, and I think it has more upward room beyond that still, even factoring in heavier crude grades brought online. Oil is still one of the cheapest liquids available commercially... even at $68/bbl that only works out to around $0.40/quart!

But if by "the market" you mean john and jane doe, then I've got my doubts. The entire country is built on a foundation of cheap, easily available petro energy, and as such it's a very inelastic market. You're going to need to see serious increases in price before seeing a serious decrease in consumption. The barriers to alternatives are too prohibitively expensive for many people.

Eventually, as prices continue to rise, it'll become too expensive to commute and people will either move, quit or switch to mass transit (if available... good luck with that all you peeps in the city of angels!) In the meantime, they WILL forego other things, including things we wouldn't consider luxuries. Low income / Fixed income families may well be choosing between fuel oil and food, or gas and medication.

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Dollarmansteve

Yes, by 'the market' I refer to the price setting commodity markets - obviously there are many makrets as well as many grades of oil (north sea, brent, texas, etc...).

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