LOL you act like there is not a constant CURVE of hydrocarbon supply, it doesnt just STOP lol it is a constant - albiet maybe LESS but a constant nonetheless.

I think the world will be a lot more interesting in 2015-2020

The sad thing is, that plenty of ways have been developed to bring down the costs of transportation, and they are not being used. And they wont be for as long as the Governments have their hands in the pie.

ABOUT ODAC
The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) is an independent, UK-registered educational charity working to raise international public awareness and promote better understanding of the world's oil-depletion problem.

Yeah right real unbiased lol.

The running out of oil theory is actually over 100 years old. The world was supposed to run out of oil by the 1920's.
The world is approaching peak oil production levels using today's technology and proven reserve levels. We are currently consuming 1 billion barrels of oil every 12 days and we certainly aren't discovering 1 billion new barrels every 12 days.


The oil sands are no joke but keep telling yourself that. It cost $6-$12 a barrel to extract with current technology. The refined product is of a lower quality so it is usually sold at a discount of $12. Any oil price over $25 makes extracting the oil from the sands profitable. I think oil will be over $25 for the foreseeable future don't you? Also remember that the viable reserves they talk about are only the oil that can be extracted with the current technology and that only represents about 10% of the total oil in the sands.

Its more complicated than that.

The cost of alternative energy sources is still pretty high. The demand is so low for the time being that it just isn't worth doing. Cars can run on methanol but right now its more expensive than gas due to development costs and lack of demand.

Alternative energy sources will start coming more and more into play. The government does have many grants available to help people setup alternative energy sources. For example, the State of California will pay up to half the cost of setting your home up with wind powered energy. It costs around $40k to setup and the government will pay $20k. With that grant, a typical home will make back their $20k investment within 10 years. If I had land, I would totally take advantage of that.

There are programs available. You just have to look.

The cost of building a new refinery is hugh and additional costs and delays in building is caused by the EPA and OSHA requirements.

The Saudi's offered to build two refineries in the US but was denied the right to do so.

Fine, ignore that quote... what about the 2 from BP and Shell? You think they like telling people they might be out of business soon? Exploration is becomming more and more costly. Some companies are spending more money on finding the oil than they get selling it. The Capsian Sea in the 90s was supposed to be the next big thing that would save us all... it never panned out. It's about the same as the North Sea reserves which is like 4% of world reserves. Yet this is the biggest discovery in years.

How about this article in the New York Times:
Top oil groups fail to recoup exploration costs

Wow! I didn't know there were so many "OIL" experts on this board. Guys, you have the wrong job! :1orglaugh

Stop trying to make sense to sheep who think oil is an unlimited resource. Too funny.

51......

The only reason why the gas prices are so high is because people keep paying for it, if I had a product that everyone couldn't live without, I'd see how high I could raise the prices too. They keep raising them, and people keep paying for it... figure it out.

The first part of that sentence is true. The rest... you haven't taken economics 101 have you?

Demand is starting to exceed supply. It's called peak oil. You'll be very familiar with this term very soon.

51......

was thinking the same :1orglaugh

don't think so but it made me laugh... Only on GFY :helpme

51......

shit wind farm's are in trouble in California, they are killing the brids. :Oh crap

:1orglaugh
Source: Do Windmills Eat Birds?

:1orglaugh

Reminds of "So why doesnt someone build a money-growing tree?"

Fucking idiot.

Back to the topic at hand:

Number of refineries in the U.S.: 149
Number of refineries in 1981: More than 300
Capacity growth since 1981: -10%
Gasoline consumption since 1981: +45%
Gasoline imported from other countries: 10% of total consumption
Last NEW oil refinery build it the US: 1976
Number of refineries in the process of getting built: 1

From the New York Times: No New Refineries in 29 Years? There Might Well Be a Reason

51......

WASHINGTON - America's unquenched thirst for gasoline is stretching the nation's refineries to their limits. Even so, no new refineries are likely to be built soon, and that helps ensure that gas prices will stay high as America becomes increasingly dependent on foreign-made gasoline.

High investment costs and low profits have discouraged the building of any U.S. refineries since 1976. Absent new refineries, rising demand for gas will outpace American refiners' ability to make it.

U.S. and global demand for gasoline is at all-time highs. American refineries are running at more than 90 percent capacity, and at up to 96 percent in peak times. That's close to full throttle, and without precedent.

The soaring demand is highly profitable for refiners, who are squeezing out every gallon of gas they can. But their strain to meet the demand is one reason you're paying so much at the pump.

Investors fear that U.S. refineries are stretched too thin. A single accident could disrupt the strained supplies and lead to shortages. To ensure against that risk, buyers bid up the price of oil contracts, and the price of gasoline -- a refined derivative of oil -- rises in the process.

In virtually any other business, such tight production capacity would spark investment in new facilities. But refining isn't a typical business. Few Americans want refineries in their back yards, polluting the neighborhood and driving down home prices.

And a new, modern refinery costs more than $2.5 billion. That seems like Mount Everest to an industry that's coming out of two decades of weak profits.

Annual refinery profits have averaged below 6 percent in the 29 years since the last new refinery opened in the United States in Garyville, La.

Earlier this year, the U.S. Energy Department released its annual peek 20 years into the future. One conclusion: It's "unlikely that new refineries will be built in the United States."

Instead, the agency said, existing refineries will expand to produce another 5.5 million barrels per day of gasoline. That still will fall short of demand.

Foreign-made gas will bridge the gap. Imports of finished gasoline account for about 14 percent of the gas sold in the United States today, according to the Energy Department, and will represent more than 20 percent in 2025.

Incremental increases in output boost the amount of U.S.-refined gasoline, but all signs still point to a growing reliance on gas refined overseas.

"The prospect of energy independence for petroleum products is pretty much a mirage," said Robert Slaughter, the president of the National Petrochemical and Refiners Association in Washington. "The question is, 'Will we be able to keep our reliance down?' "