Prepare for a major disaster : A Killer flu is on the way.

[NoCarrier]

I'm reading reports that the migratory birds has started infecting Russia with the H5N1 virus and will soon spread to Europe.. My guess is that it's only a matter of time before this new virus becomes a pandemic strain.

Sorry, no cliff notes.

Prepare for disaster

08:17 PM CDT on Saturday, August 6, 2005

By LAURIE GARRETT

Scientists have long forecast the appearance of an influenza virus capable of infecting 40 percent of the world's human population and killing unimaginable numbers. Recently, a new strain, H5N1 avian influenza, has shown all the earmarks of becoming that disease.The havoc such a disease could wreak is commonly compared to the devastation of the 1918-19 Spanish flu, which killed 50 million people in 18 months. But avian flu is far more dangerous: As of May 1, about 109 people were known to have contracted it, and it killed 54 percent (this statistic does not include any milder cases that may have gone unreported).

In short, doom may loom. But note the "may." Nothing at all could happen. Scientists cannot predict with certainty what this H5N1 influenza will do.

An H5N1 avian influenza that is transmittable from human to human could be devastating: Assuming a mortality rate of 20 percent, the United States could be looking at 16 million deaths and unimaginable economic costs in a worst-case scenario. The entire world would experience similar levels of carnage, but the majority of the world's governments have no health infrastructure to handle the burdens of disease and panic.

In 1918, some 675,000 Americans ? about 6 percent of the population ? perished from the Spanish flu. It hit North America in the summer of 1918, killing 43,000 U.S. military personnel in about three months.

By late September 1918, so overwhelmed was the War Department by influenza that the military could not assist in controlling civic disorder at home, including riots caused by hysteria.

Influenza swept from populous U.S. cities to remote rural areas. Explorers discovered empty Inuit villages in what are now Alaska and the Yukon Territory, their entire populations having succumbed to the flu. Nearly 20 percent of the people of Western Samoa died. Many historians and biologists believe that nearly a third of all humans suffered from influenza in 1918-19 ? and that of these, 100 million died.

Victims suffered from acute cyanosis, a blue discoloration of the skin and mucous membranes. They vomited up blood; many young people suffered from encephalitis; and millions experienced acute respiratory distress syndrome, an immunological condition in which disease-fighting cells damage lung cells and the victims suffocate. Had antibiotics existed, they may not have been much help.

Understanding the risks requires understanding the nature of influenza. Influenza is normally carried by migratory aquatic birds, usually without harm to them. As the birds migrate, they can pass the viruses on to domesticated birds. Throughout history, this connection between birds and the flu has spawned epidemics in Asia, especially China.

As China's GDP grows, chicken farming is morphing into a major industry, with poultry plants rivaling those in Arkansas and Georgia in scale ? but lagging behind in hygienic standards. These factors favor rapid influenza evolution.

Influenza reproduces sloppily: Its genes readily fall apart, and it can absorb genetic material and get mixed up in a process called reassortment. When influenza successfully infects a new species, it may switch from being an avian virus to a mammalian one, resulting in a human epidemic. This explains why influenza is a seasonal disease. Vaccines made one year are generally useless the following.

Since the early 20th century, an H5N1 influenza has never spread among humans. According to the World Health Organization, "Population vulnerability to an H5N1-like pandemic virus would be universal."

Chinese scientists have been tracking the H5N1 virus since it first emerged in Hong Kong in 1997, killing six people and sickening 18 others. In January 2003, the "Z" virus emerged and spread to Vietnam and Thailand, where it became resistant to one of the two classes of anti-flu drugs.

In early 2004 it became supervirulent and capable of killing a range of species, including rodents and humans. That permutation was dubbed "Z+."

Although most of the 109 known human H5N1 infections have been ascribed to some type of contact with chickens, many cases remain unsolved.

The majority of the infected have been young adults and children. There has been one documented case of human-to-human transmission of a strain of the H5N1 virus, in late 2004, in Thailand.

The Z strain of the disease killed 68 percent of those known to have been infected. In H5N1 cases since December 2004, however, the mortality has been 36 percent. It is possible that H5N1 has begun adapting to its human hosts, becoming less deadly but easier to spread. Leading flu experts argue that this sort of phenomenon has in the past been a prelude to epidemics.

The medical histories of those who have died from H5N1 influenza are disturbingly similar to accounts of sufferers of the Spanish flu in 1918-19. Otherwise healthy people are overcome by the virus, developing: coughing, headache, muscle pain, nausea, dizziness, diarrhea, high fever; also, pneumonia, encephalitis, meningitis, acute respiratory distress and internal hemorrhaging.

According to test-tube studies, Z+ ought to be vulnerable to the anti-flu drug oseltamivir, which the Roche pharmaceuticals company markets under the brand name Tamiflu. It is difficult to tell whether the drug contributed to the survival of those who took it and lived. Lacking any better options, the WHO has recommended that countries stockpile Tamiflu.

In the current system, all influenza vaccines must be quickly made after a WHO meeting of flu experts held every February. At that gathering, scientists try to predict which strains are most likely to spread in the next six to nine months. Samples are delivered to pharmaceutical companies around the world for vaccine production, which are hopefully available to the public a few months after influenza typically strikes Asia, in the early summer.

Manufacturers have never made more than 300 million doses of vaccine in a single year. In the event of an H5N1 pandemic, millions would likely be infected well before vaccines could be distributed.

Resources are so scarce that it is doubtful that any nation would be able to meet the needs of its citizenry. Vaccine distribution schemes assume that only the very young, the elderly and those who are already fighting illness are at serious risk from the flu.

But in 1918 the young and the old fared relatively well, while those aged 20 to 35 suffered the most deaths from the Spanish flu. And so far, H5N1 influenza looks like it could have a similar effect.

Facing limited supplies, the U.S., European and Japanese governments might give priority to vaccinating heads of state around the world in hopes of limiting chaos. With death tolls rising, vaccines and drugs in short supply, governments would feel obliged to inhibit travel and worldwide trade. Most governments would likely resort to quarantines.

The economic consequences of quarantines and medical care would be outstripped by productivity losses. Entire workplaces would be shut down to limit human-to-human spread of the virus.

The potential for a pandemic comes at a time when the world's public health systems are severely taxed. This is true in both rich and poor countries.

The Bush administration recognized this weakness after the anthrax scare of 2001. The White House increased funding for the CDC's flu program, for the National Institutes of Health's flu-related research; for the Food and Drug Administration's licensing capacity for flu vaccines and drugs; and spent an additional $80 million to create new stockpiles of Tamiflu and other drugs.

On Aug. 4, 2004, the Department of Health and Human Services issued its pandemic flu plan, detailing further steps that would be taken by federal and state agencies.

Probably the greatest weakness that each nation must address is the inability of hospitals to cope with a sudden surge of new patients. Medical cost-cutting has resulted in a reduction in the numbers of staffed hospital beds in the wealthy world, especially in the United States.

National policy-makers would be wise to plan now for worst-case scenarios. Combating influenza will require multilateral and global mechanisms. The WHO, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Organization for Animal Health have all published guidelines on how to respond to a pandemic.

The efforts of these agencies should be bolstered. The WHO, for example, has an annual core budget of just $400 million. An unpublished internal study estimates that the agency would require at least $600 million more were a pandemic to erupt. It must have adequate funding and personnel to serve as a clearinghouse of information about the disease, thereby preventing the spread of false rumors and global panic.

Whether or not this H5N1 influenza mutates into a human-to-human pandemic form, the scientific evidence points to the potential that such an event will take place, perhaps soon. Those responsible for foreign policy and national security, the world over, cannot afford to ignore the warning.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcont....228056f4.html

[llporter]

Whoa - That is way to long for me to read

[NoCarrier]

Originally Posted by llporter

Whoa - That is way to long for me to read

Good! The evolution in action. My guess is that you'll be the first to go, and won't even know why. Enjoy.

[DateDoc]

This was talked about on the radio last week. This strain of flu has a 100% mortality rate in chickens. A 100% mortality rate in mice. These figures are unheard of. They predict that this flu will affect younger people age 20-40 as kids get flu shots as do older people and while they have not been immunized for this particular strain they will fair better. This COULD (they wont say will yet) be the plague of the 21st century.

[galleryseek]

Originally Posted by NoCarrier

In short, doom may loom. But note the "may." Nothing at all could happen. Scientists cannot predict with certainty what this H5N1 influenza will do.

This is the only thing really worth reading. Manyyyy things "may" happen.

[NoCarrier]

Originally Posted by galleryseek

This is the only thing really worth reading. Manyyyy things "may" happen.

Yes, but the next pandemic is inevitable. There will be one. It's not if but when. It might not be H5N1 but :

"Whether or not this H5N1 influenza mutates into a human-to-human pandemic form, the scientific evidence points to the potential that such an event will take place, perhaps soon. Those responsible for foreign policy and national security, the world over, cannot afford to ignore the warning."

[galleryseek]

Originally Posted by NoCarrier

Yes, but the next pandemic is inevitable. There will be one. It's not if but when. It might not be H5N1 but :

"Whether or not this H5N1 influenza mutates into a human-to-human pandemic form, the scientific evidence points to the potential that such an event will take place, perhaps soon. Those responsible for foreign policy and national security, the world over, cannot afford to ignore the warning."

sorry, had to

[NoCarrier]

Originally Posted by galleryseek

sorry, had to

Damn.. I wish it was a conspiracy. I would feel better. I hope it never happens, but the signs are there. Unfortunately.

My uncle (I never met him) died when he was 16 years old in 1969 from the Hong Kong Flu (The previous pandemic). I really hope the next one coming won't be like the Spanish Flu.

[Spunky]

Looks like a very scary situation ,sure hope we aren't effected

[NoCarrier]

Originally Posted by spunky

Looks like a very scary situation ,sure hope we aren't effected

Well, it's not the panic button, yet.

We are currently at Phase 4.

Stages of a Pandemic

The World Health Organization (WHO) has developed a global influenza preparedness plan, which defines the stages of a pandemic, outlines WHO?s role and makes recommendations for national measures before and during a pandemic. The phases are:

Interpandemic period

Phase 1: No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans. An influenza virus subtype that has caused human infection may be present in animals. If present in animals, the risk of human infection or disease is considered to be low.

Phase 2: No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans. However, a circulating animal influenza virus subtype poses a substantial risk of human disease.

Pandemic alert period

Phase 3: Human infection(s) with a new subtype, but no human-to-human spread, or at most rare instances of spread to a close contact.

Phase 4: Small cluster(s) with limited human-to-human transmission but spread is highly localized, suggesting that the virus is not well adapted to humans.

Phase 5: Larger cluster(s) but human-to-human spread still localized, suggesting that the virus is becoming increasingly better adapted to humans, but may not yet be fully transmissible (substantial pandemic risk).

Pandemic period

Phase 6: Pandemic: increased and sustained transmission in general population.

[bhutocracy]

Something will eventually happen. Like SARS we will have some kind of warning though it's not as if everyone's going to die.. just a lot of people in the shithole places the flu originates in and a lot of hysteria and a few tens of thousands of deaths in the west.
There really should be regulations and fines for "allowing" this sort of shit to happen (at least for the small amount of human involvement). I don't care if its part of your culture to eat raw duck's blood soup.... you eat raw bird blood in a bird flu hotspot and you're putting millions of lives at risk all over the world.. there should be attempted manslaughter charges for this sort of shit. I know it sounds stupid and over the top... and a ridiculous imposition on a bunch of third world countries.. but thats how it's happened in the last bunch of cases and it's how it will happen when everyone dies. It will be one person coming into contact with one infected bird and likely engaging in high risk eating habits. This person's actions will kill millions.

[NoCarrier]

Originally Posted by bhutocracy

Something will eventually happen. Like SARS we will have some kind of warning

SARS had the potential to kill a lot of people. Fortunately (Thank God), unlike a FLU virus, it was not airborne.

1 person didn't infect 3 others and so on.

If H5N1 starts spreading for person to person, it will be exactly like a new computer virus, it will infect almost everyone on this planet, the problem is, it will take at least 6 months before a vaccine is available for everyone in the United States.

[bhutocracy]

Originally Posted by NoCarrier

SARS had the potential to kill a lot of people. Fortunately (Thank God), unlike a FLU virus, it was not airborne.

1 person didn't infect 3 others and so on.

If H5N1 starts spreading for person to person, it will be exactly like a new computer virus, it will infect almost everyone on this planet, the problem is, it will take at least 6 months before a vaccine is available for everyone in the United States.

that SARS was airborne or not is still in dispute. Quarantine will still be one of the most effective measures against H5N1 spreading and you won't need vaccine for everyone during a pandemic outbreak even though of course it is preferable.

[NoCarrier]

Originally Posted by bhutocracy

that SARS was airborne or not is still in dispute.

No, now they know SARS was only able to infect someone else if you were in close contact for a long period of time with an infected person.

Originally Posted by bhutocracy

Quarantine will still be one of the most effective measures against H5N1 spreading and you won't need vaccine for everyone during a pandemic outbreak even though of course it is preferable.

It would be impossible anyway, it will take at least 6 months to create enough doses.

[pr0]

good we need to thin out the population, especially in china & india

[pocketkangaroo]

I'm not 100% sure about this, but I remember seeing something on the news about them testing a vaccine for the bird flu. The article is here:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/upi/?fee...us-birdflu.xml

Seems like it was pretty close to being good to go on humans, hopefully not to late. But as the article states, they won't be able to make enough fast enough.

[Tala]

Whether or not it evolves into hugely serious proportions, it's still very frightening to think about.

[bhutocracy]

Originally Posted by NoCarrier

No, now they know SARS was only able to infect someone else if you were in close contact for a long period of time with an infected person.

It would be impossible anyway, it will take at least 6 months to create enough doses.

I'm not too worried about it. Australia is the best prepared of any country and absolute worst case scenario estimates about a quarter of us will catch it... we only need 5 million doses..
Also although the numbers are bad.. worst case scenario is 1-2% of the world dies. Yes i know how fucked up this is.. it's a large chunk of humanity..100 million people.. but i say it in context to your suggestion that everyone is going to get it. Just thank your lucky stars you're in an advanced western nation and not a poor third world asian country.

[Spunky]

Originally Posted by pr0

good we need to thin out the population, especially in china & india

The trouble is they migrate to B.C. their population has increased 10 fold in the past 10 years.probably one of the reasons that bird flu came here so fast.That was a helter skelter situation to say the least .We had to slaughter 100's of thousands of innocent birds just to be sure..couldn't imagine what would happen if that started to spread here

[Digibucks]

what we need to do is to be very cautious, those are some serious matters

[NoCarrier]

Evil Idea : You guys want to make millions while millions of people are sick/dying ?

Buy a shitload of antivirals like Tamiflu and amantadine and when the new pandemic appears, sell it on Ebay.

Once it's started and on CNN. Expect every "over the counter" flu meds to disappear from every stores.

But only one thing might save them : Tamiflu or Amantadine.

Your biggest enemy will be the Cytokine storm :


We think of external microbes as our worst enemy during an outbreak of influenza or bronchitis, but our own immune systems are potentially more lethal. When our body detects foreign microorganisms indicating an infection, it might over-protect our lungs. We race so many antibodies to the site that they collect in a Cytokine storm, potentially blocking airways and causing suffocation. Medical researchers have identified the stages of the Cytokine storm and are working on treatments, other than flu vaccines, to weaken an overactive immune response.

At all times, sentries circulate in our bloodstream, called white blood cells, that are the first to sense if a virus or bacteria has infiltrated. Immediately, our body sends defenders from the immune system, T-cells, to the site of the infection. During this stage, our immunity functions properly, and T-cells attack the microbes so they do not get too strong a foothold in our lungs.

However, the mere presence of T-cells clustered at one site, especially the lungs, alerts other T-cells that a full-scale war has started. In the second stage, even more T-cells, known as cytokines, flood the lungs. This propagates a Cytokine storm where far too many immune cells are caught in an endless loop of calling even more. The Cytokine storm ends up inflaming the tissue of the lungs and crowding air passages, causing breathing difficulties.

Not only can severe inflammation damage your lungs permanently, but a prolonged Cytokine storm will eventually shut down your breathing. Airducts get clogged and cells no longer properly absorb oxygen. This is what makes the Cytokine storm so deadly in certain epidemic strains, such as bird flu. Even bronchitis, other varieties of influenza, pneumonia, and possibly rheumatoid arthritis are susceptible to triggering a Cytokine storm.

Of course, flu vaccines are usually effective at preventing the flu during its peak season. But they are no guarantee, especially when flu strains mutate after the vaccine has been manufactured. Therefore, researchers are pursuing other methods of preventing the Cytokine storm by bioengineering a drug that could slow the snowball effect of antibodies. They hope to force the cytokines to recirculate in the bloodstream, rather than pool in the lungs. Experts predict that a major influenza pandemic could kill millions of people worldwide as it has done in centuries past.

[bhutocracy]

When i say im not worried, I mean it half because im aware of the issue and as a disease freak im confident I'll be able to avoid contamination.
I'm in a shithole small town in Australia, we've got good vaccine supplies, we're an island continent, i work from a home office, I can send my guys home to work from their houses when it's apparent things are getting bad.. And I'm the sort of person who doesn't give a hoot about wearing a mask out in public and looking like a fool during the early stages of the pandemic when not everyone is aware of the seriousness of the situation. Also im a vegequarian.. not that it matters in a human to human transmission situation... but if local bird populations are effected etc.

So yeah there is plenty to be scared of.. but im confident we will react accordingly and it's not keeping me awake at night.

[pr0]

Originally Posted by spunky

The trouble is they migrate to B.C. their population has increased 10 fold in the past 10 years.probably one of the reasons that bird flu came here so fast.That was a helter skelter situation to say the least .We had to slaughter 100's of thousands of innocent birds just to be sure..couldn't imagine what would happen if that started to spread here

yea, i have no clue why the canadian govt thinks its a good idea to allow such a large migration of chinese

i guess the asian mafia already has juice

[rickholio]

Originally Posted by pr0

yea, i have no clue why the canadian govt thinks its a good idea to allow such a large migration of chinese

i guess the asian mafia already has juice

All you need is one bird to eat grain from the hand of one person who's been to china. Vectors can be very narrow for the spread of such diseases.

Fortunately (much to the chagrin of bird farmers in BC) they took the wiser "scorched earth" policy. We may well have been spared some serious fallout as a result.

And as for H5N1, I've procured a week's worth of Tamiflu for the entire family. Fortunately where I am, I'll have several layers of 'canaries' to alert me when it's coming for me:

- I live in Halifax. In all likelihood, H5N1 will show up in Vancouver and Toronto before it gets here, giving me time to prepare.

- My kids go to school. In all likelihood, one of them will show symptoms before I would, giving me time to dose.

If you're conspiracy minded, think about this: Oseltamivir/Tamiflu can be taken prophylacticly. That is, you can take a partial dose daily and have a seriously reduced chance of developing flu at all. Unfortunately, at the price of the pills ($5 a day for canucks, more if you're in the US) it's fairly expensive to keep a family in the stuff... unless you have some coin behind you. $150/month per family member would be economic death to your average $50k-a-year-before-tax household with a couple and 2 kids (600/mo... it'd be like another mortgage). So this flu may represent little threat to rich people who can stock up on tamiflu, but sucks to be you if you're poor.

Of course, if you believe there's limited stocks of Oseltamivir BECAUSE of that, well, let me know so I can go put some more money into tin/aluminum futures.

[The Other Steve]

Originally Posted by bhutocracy

When i say im not worried, I mean it half because im aware of the issue and as a disease freak im confident I'll be able to avoid contamination.
I'm in a shithole small town in Australia, we've got good vaccine supplies, we're an island continent, i work from a home office, I can send my guys home to work from their houses when it's apparent things are getting bad.. And I'm the sort of person who doesn't give a hoot about wearing a mask out in public and looking like a fool during the early stages of the pandemic when not everyone is aware of the seriousness of the situation. Also im a vegequarian.. not that it matters in a human to human transmission situation... but if local bird populations are effected etc.

So yeah there is plenty to be scared of.. but im confident we will react accordingly and it's not keeping me awake at night.

Then we're moving down to live with you.

Now there's a thought that should keep you awake at night.

And if you think we're safe up here let me tell you that the only recorded deaths from plague in Australia happened just 20 minutes down the road in 1905.

[VeriSexy]

With modern medicine, this will never happen unless they drug companies let it happen so they can make billions

[iwantchixx]

there has been many plagues throughout historya nd human kind always survived. I guess it's just natural cleansing of the earth.

[AlienQ - BANNED FOR LIFE]

They just tested a vaccine on humans for this.

It worked.
Fine.

Will b on sheleves in a couple months.

Move on Doom sayer.

[bhutocracy]

Originally Posted by The Other Steve

Then we're moving down to live with you.

Now there's a thought that should keep you awake at night.

And if you think we're safe up here let me tell you that the only recorded deaths from plague in Australia happened just 20 minutes down the road in 1905.

heheheh doh!

Actually i would really like to get hold of some vaccine personally just in case.

[azguy]

Who's buying H5N1 domains now?

[je_rome]

well i just hope the government will do something about this before it even reaches here.

[azguy]

H5N1vaccine.com registered in may 2005. ITS STARTING

hehe

[azguy]

h5n1influenza.com
Record created on: 2005-07-19 13:32:30 PDT (0)

great buzz

[PixeLs]

Scientists and media won't release such bad news if they don't have the solution for it. I know they are prepared for it. ;)

[potter]

Do you post a new thread about this every month? You must be really obsessed with this thing.

This "epedemic" which could happen is why people should own assualt rifles. I'd hate to think what would happen to innocent people who have no defense incase of any serious panic which is worldwide.

Also, Since when have we been in Phase 4? Last I read on this there was no human to human cases - which would have us in Phase 3. All cases of humans had contracted it from exposure via animals and/or their waste. Could you provide articles or the human to human cases? I'd be interested in reading up on those.

[reed_4]

that would really scare all parents. Major disease is no joke

[Manowar]

Originally Posted by NoCarrier

But only one thing might save them : Tamiflu or Amantadine.

Are the companies who make Tamiflu or Amantadine publicly traded?

I found tamiflu was manufactured by "Hoffman Larouche Inc" but can't find them being public

[Dirty Dane]

Originally Posted by iwantchixx

there has been many plagues throughout historya nd human kind always survived. I guess it's just natural cleansing of the earth.

Yes, and its nothing new that weak and older people die from the flu. Everytime there is a new flu they give these doom predictions, so people focus on something else than AIDS and malaria, problems they haven't managed to solve yet. Well....they need to earn the money somewhere...

[PornGeneral]

Most of the people on the board have never experienced a epidemic flu.

Think about this in 1918 you could not travel the world in 24 hours by airplane. But people do today. The speed at which the flu would spread would be shocking. Not to mention that instead of the flu being centered on maybe one hot spot in the country/world it would be every where!

RUN FOR THE HILLS, STOCK PILE YOUR AMMO!

Really, you can't live in fear. But at least respect what happens naturally every few decades..

[galleryseek]

Just saw on CNN that they have created an effective vaccine against the "bird flu"

http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/08/07....ap/index.html

[LadyMischief]

The thought of an "Outbreak" type situation is more likely and more frightening to me than the thought of nuclear war.

[mardigras]

Originally Posted by galleryseek

Just saw on CNN that they have created an effective vaccine against the "bird flu"

http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/08/07....ap/index.html

Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt said last week the government wanted to stockpile 20 million doses of the new vaccine. He estimated that it would take four to six months to mass produce the vaccine.

Well into the flu season... less than enough for 10% of the population.

[warlock5]

Anyone else snatching up killer flu domains?

[mardigras]

Originally Posted by LadyMischief

The thought of an "Outbreak" type situation is more likely and more frightening to me than the thought of nuclear war.

Even scarier is that could be manipulated much easier than smuggling in nuclear weapons.

[tristan_D]

that's a very scary read.