REAL ESTATE is ripe for a burst !

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  • Greg B
    So Fucking Banned
    • Jul 2001
    • 7014

    #201
    Lots can change. One thing for the better would be since so many Americans leave the U.S. to live elsewhere like Thailand and Belize etc. the foreign countries can see the light of adding better security to better accomodate Americans who want to enjoy their American lifestyle but still are solvent enough to build up the foreign economies. American lifestyle is the key here. The smart guys are gonna see that they could attract millions and millions of Americans to their shores if they accomodated us. Low prices but quality service. With Satellite tv and advanced communication systems all that'd be left is commercial products like YooHoo and Marlboror cigs and you'ld have customers up the yin yang.

    Although it costs $70k a year to live somewhat comfy here in the states, that same $70k is non taxable in foreign countries but is like having $500k here.

    Security means money. Not the other way around. If foreign countries made it happy for Americans to live there real estate here would fall off like a rock.

    Comment

    • Greg B
      So Fucking Banned
      • Jul 2001
      • 7014

      #202
      http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/11/29/D8E6C6M83.html

      New home sales up 13% in October! Looks like it's turning into a buyer's market.

      Comment

      • slapass
        Too lazy to set a custom title
        • Nov 2002
        • 14625

        #203
        If you had shorted the housing stocks when he posted this you would have hauled in about 33% by now.

        Comment

        • Xenophage
          Registered User
          • Oct 2001
          • 12122

          #204
          I am certain we have seen the Peak !

          Comment

          • ADL Colin
            Too lazy to set a custom title
            • Feb 2001
            • 11929

            #205
            bump bump


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            • tiger
              Confirmed User
              • Apr 2002
              • 6986

              #206
              LOL nice bump.

              Comment

              • sweetcuties
                Confirmed User
                • Feb 2002
                • 5859

                #207
                Wow, this is an old thread...

                Remember this... NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY!!! If you want to build wealth, just have at least 1 rental (min) and you'll do well

                Comment

                • AGS-17
                  Confirmed User
                  • May 2005
                  • 1402

                  #208
                  Originally posted by LegendaryLars

                  thx the sites !

                  Comment

                  • RP Fade
                    Confirmed User
                    • Sep 2003
                    • 3343

                    #209
                    Originally posted by LegendaryLars
                    good ? I have no idea.. thats what is so irritating and what fuels the mad rush in.. if it does not happen for another 2 years and prices go up another 30% then even if it drops 10 -20 % you might kick yourslf for not doing it now.. if its for a primary living I would just do it now... if its for speculation I would hold off.

                    but thats just me
                    hehe...old thread but we did wait and just got something at a good price
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                    • AGS-17
                      Confirmed User
                      • May 2005
                      • 1402

                      #210
                      Lars you are taking out 1 key factor.

                      Comment

                      • ADL Colin
                        Too lazy to set a custom title
                        • Feb 2001
                        • 11929

                        #211
                        Originally posted by ADL Colin
                        I'll bump it.
                        Almost 3 years now.


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                        • Kard63
                          Confirmed User
                          • Nov 2003
                          • 8944

                          #212
                          Lars is a smart fellow. How much longer should I wait to buy Lars? I live in the midwest where shit never did double in the first place so "people" think it will turn around faster here.

                          Comment

                          • NoComments
                            Confirmed User
                            • Jan 2005
                            • 4957

                            #213
                            Lars was right on the money!

                            There is a reason some folks sell their businesses for 500 mils while most do NOT!
                            ;)
                            ***************************************
                            Give me the offer I can't refuse

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                            • marcop
                              Confirmed User
                              • Nov 2005
                              • 4150

                              #214
                              The guy who bought the house next door in May 2005 for $1.35M is probably losing $5k-$10k a month in equity.

                              The best investment advice you'll ever receive: Buy Low, Sell High.

                              Comment

                              • NaughtyRob
                                Two fresh affiliate progs
                                • Nov 2004
                                • 29602

                                #215
                                He was right on, the Vegas market is shit right now. Definitely a buyers market.
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                                • Kard63
                                  Confirmed User
                                  • Nov 2003
                                  • 8944

                                  #216
                                  Looks like I will not be getting an answer on my "when should I buy" question. He hasnt posted here in 7.5 months.

                                  Comment

                                  • slapass
                                    Too lazy to set a custom title
                                    • Nov 2002
                                    • 14625

                                    #217
                                    Glad to see I did not post anything stupid in this thread. I hate when I see old threads and I am "nope, now is the time to buy!" or something dumb like that.

                                    Comment

                                    • Fap
                                      Just Du It
                                      • Feb 2004
                                      • 12094

                                      #218
                                      whats with people bumping these 3yr old threads?

                                      Comment

                                      • ADL Colin
                                        Too lazy to set a custom title
                                        • Feb 2001
                                        • 11929

                                        #219
                                        Originally posted by banthis
                                        whats with people bumping these 3yr old threads?
                                        Post #141. I said I'd bump this thread in 3 years. Just for kicks, want me to bump it again in 2011?


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                                        • Snake Doctor
                                          I'm Lenny2 Bitch
                                          • Mar 2001
                                          • 13449

                                          #220
                                          Originally posted by KMR Stitch
                                          Lars you are taking out 1 key factor.


                                          The Baby boomers are coming out of retirement AGE 60-65 ish A lot of them will be moving to warmer southern areas. Florida/Texas/Cali

                                          The market might bust in a few areas but still be strong in the south.
                                          Originally posted by Amputate Your Head
                                          Location location location..... and I'm sittin' on the mutha fuckin' beach.

                                          Your bubble may burst.... but mines still shining.
                                          Originally posted by Veterans Day
                                          small pockets of devaluation, such as shithole california. Overall the best investment one can make. Nothing dramatic
                                          Originally posted by jonesy
                                          there will never be a decline in real estate. ever.
                                          Originally posted by clickhappy
                                          Alan Greenspan said theres no real bubble, just pocket bubble areas.
                                          So I dont think the shit's going to hit the fan, I just think there will be a little depreciation in California, NYC, Las Vegas and Boston.
                                          Originally posted by BoNgHiTtA
                                          Im going to have to go with people like Greenspan and Buffet. There are pockets of hyper growth (look at the areas posted in the other thread) BUT, other areas are appreciating at a sustainable rate. Sure, there is a bubble in some areas, but others are not in any sort of stock market decline danger.
                                          Originally posted by jonesy
                                          i do think its going to level off and stop for awhile.
                                          but a decline in price?
                                          nope.
                                          Originally posted by Alex From San Diego
                                          People have been telling me about this bubble since 01. I'm glad I didn't listen to them.
                                          Originally posted by HighRoller
                                          I have been a full time real estate investor for 3 years
                                          No matter if real estate goes up and down doesn't matter to my business.....

                                          Florida and Nevada will have intermitted set backs
                                          as at certain moments they overbuild...

                                          Florida will be big for a long long time.....
                                          Originally posted by Lane
                                          Whatever happens, it will not drop below what it is today
                                          Originally posted by TheSaint
                                          Like any market, the bubble popping, if indeed it does, will take out some of the excess in the housing market. People who were truly stupid (bidding against each other above the asking price, buying houses unseen, etc.) could get hurt.

                                          But most single family real estate sold in the U.S is owner occupied.

                                          I don't think its possible to come up with a forecast where Florida stops growing. Its just not possible to manufacture area to live with Florida's most valuable commodity - sunshine.
                                          Originally posted by bradpitt
                                          I made millions and will continue to. There will not be a crash but taking insanly huge profits may stop.. fine with me.
                                          Originally posted by NY_TIM
                                          I just bought 2 houses in Vegas in the last 2 months. I am renting them out right now. When I can take money out of the first one I will buy a 3rd and so on and so on
                                          Originally posted by FUCKuPAYme
                                          even if it dropped that much you still made a shit load my house goes up 100k year About 35% in tampa on the water. btw always buy on the water

                                          I think real estate is a safe bet if you cant sell when the market drops their will be plenty of renters
                                          Originally posted by will76
                                          Didn't long term interest rates just go down ;)
                                          Sorry guys no burst soon.
                                          .
                                          Ahhhh, I love history.
                                          sig too big

                                          Comment

                                          • ADL Colin
                                            Too lazy to set a custom title
                                            • Feb 2001
                                            • 11929

                                            #221
                                            Originally posted by TheJimmy
                                            that dude that wrote Rich Dad's real estate book said it well...

                                            do the opposite of what the herd is doing, when everyone is buying homes, DON'T! (buy stocks instead)

                                            when everyone is buying stocks, DON'T... (invest in RE)


                                            ...overly simplistic, but nonetheless sound advice for the most part, it's pretty clear that when stocks dump people get nervous and run to the 'solid' land/housing purchases/investments...and vice versa...

                                            following trends can work for a while, but you def have to watch for the teeder/todder moving...


                                            .
                                            Best advice in this thread was this. Buffett has a similar quote which we have on our office walls as a daily reminder.

                                            "Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful"


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                                            • Kard63
                                              Confirmed User
                                              • Nov 2003
                                              • 8944

                                              #222
                                              What do you know, I always thought Will76 was an overly confident fool and he was wrong in this thread. Good times.

                                              Comment

                                              • Snake Doctor
                                                I'm Lenny2 Bitch
                                                • Mar 2001
                                                • 13449

                                                #223
                                                Originally posted by ADL Colin
                                                Best advice in this thread was this. Buffett has a similar quote which we have on our office walls as a daily reminder.

                                                "Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful"
                                                The problem with this was when everyone was buying real estate, it was also a bad time to buy stocks.
                                                sig too big

                                                Comment

                                                • ADL Colin
                                                  Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                  • Feb 2001
                                                  • 11929

                                                  #224
                                                  Originally posted by Snake Doctor
                                                  The problem with this was when everyone was buying real estate, it was also a bad time to buy stocks.
                                                  Why would you say that? You still had 30% of gains ahead of you from the date of this thread. Obviously you would have stayed in stocks until everyone got greedy - which was precisely and obviously on October 8th,2007. ;-)

                                                  But seriously, I think it's a great rule to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. It's just a generality. It doesn't tell you when others are greedy or fearful or how to measure it but I live by it in the following way. When the market goes down I get excited and buy. When it goes down further i get more excited and buy. When it gets absolutely destroyed I am the happiest person in the world. Deals! When the market starts to rise I get sad that the bargains are starting to disappear. When it rises further I miss the good old days of cheap stocks. When everyone everywhere is talking about stocks I get interested in something else entirely.


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                                                  • Elli
                                                    Reach for those stars!
                                                    • Apr 2003
                                                    • 17991

                                                    #225
                                                    hah! Great find!
                                                    email: [email protected]

                                                    Comment

                                                    • Brujah
                                                      Beer Money Baron
                                                      • Jan 2001
                                                      • 22157

                                                      #226
                                                      Someone post some real stats, instead of vaguaries. Show us homes in Tampa, Florida for example as mentioned in this thread from 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009. Let's see how they have fluctuated in value.

                                                      Comment

                                                      • gornyhuy
                                                        Chafed.
                                                        • May 2002
                                                        • 18041

                                                        #227
                                                        Best Bump Ever. Awesome.... hindsight is 20/20.

                                                        icq:159548293

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                                                        • polle54
                                                          Confirmed User
                                                          • Jul 2004
                                                          • 4626

                                                          #228
                                                          This is definately amazing to read, great great bump
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                                                          • ADL Colin
                                                            Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                            • Feb 2001
                                                            • 11929

                                                            #229
                                                            Originally posted by Brujah
                                                            Someone post some real stats, instead of vaguaries. Show us homes in Tampa, Florida for example as mentioned in this thread from 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009. Let's see how they have fluctuated in value.
                                                            Tampa, FL. Median home price.

                                                            9/2005 $287500
                                                            9/2006 $259999
                                                            9/2007 $235000
                                                            9/2008 $190000
                                                            Current $179000

                                                            Ouuuuucccchhhhhh!

                                                            Inventory in that same time went from 5913 homes to 41,808 homes!

                                                            Source: http://www.housingtracker.net/old_ho...Florida/Tampa/
                                                            Last edited by ADL Colin; 02-10-2009, 09:16 AM.


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                                                            • Brujah
                                                              Beer Money Baron
                                                              • Jan 2001
                                                              • 22157

                                                              #230
                                                              Originally posted by ADL Colin
                                                              Tampa, FL. Median home price.

                                                              9/2005 $287500
                                                              9/2006 $259999
                                                              9/2007 $235000
                                                              9/2008 $190000
                                                              Current $179000

                                                              Ouuuuucccchhhhhh!

                                                              Inventory in that same time went from 5913 homes to 41,808 homes!

                                                              Source: http://www.housingtracker.net/old_ho...Florida/Tampa/
                                                              Thanks Colin!

                                                              Do you think they should have sold in 2005 or 2006? Is now the time to buy and flip when it gets back up to 2005 prices? How long do you think it'll take to recover back to 2005 prices?

                                                              Comment

                                                              • ADL Colin
                                                                Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                • Feb 2001
                                                                • 11929

                                                                #231
                                                                Originally posted by Brujah
                                                                Thanks Colin!

                                                                Do you think they should have sold in 2005 or 2006? Is now the time to buy and flip when it gets back up to 2005 prices? How long do you think it'll take to recover back to 2005 prices?
                                                                To get back to 2005 prices for the Tampa area from here at 5% per year would take a decade and the long term appreciation of the housing market is roughly at the rate of inflation - which historically has been less than that.

                                                                I'd much rather be in the stock market. I think this is a historic opportunity in the stock market and personally I think stocks are a lot easier to value. There is going to be all kinds of unpredictable real estate and banking legislation and that just adds another element of risk to real estate from my POV.

                                                                Bill Gross said earlier today that he still thinks long term rates will get down to 4.5%. If I were really a real estate bug I'd wait for the lower rates and then wait for a few months of uptick. Bernard Baruch said something like "you take the first 10% and the last 10% and I'll take everything in the middle". That seems like a good rule here. he also said "Don't try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can't be done except by liars. "


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                                                                • StuartD
                                                                  Sofa King Band
                                                                  • Jul 2002
                                                                  • 29903

                                                                  #232
                                                                  Originally posted by Snake Doctor
                                                                  Ahhhh, I love history.
                                                                  That's awesome
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                                                                  • Brujah
                                                                    Beer Money Baron
                                                                    • Jan 2001
                                                                    • 22157

                                                                    #233
                                                                    The market's pretty dismal still, people thought they hit bottom several months ago or more and were picking up amazing bargains. Wiping out a lot of value in everyone's portfolio. When do you think it'll start picking up?

                                                                    Comment

                                                                    • ADL Colin
                                                                      Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                      • Feb 2001
                                                                      • 11929

                                                                      #234
                                                                      While not meaning to minimize the role that legislative and federal reserve actions had on the housing bubble this thread shows that beliefs also played a role in the bubble. The belief that "real estate prices always go up" was widespread and yet obviously false. Without this belief I don't think we would have had a bubble. There have been low interest rates before without a bubble. And there have been housing bubbles without there even being a FED. There was a bubble in land near railroads in the midwest (Kansas, Oklahoma, etc) that ended up in a disastrous bust.

                                                                      A bubble requires not only the right legal environment but also the beliefs and actions of men.


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                                                                      • ADL Colin
                                                                        Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                        • Feb 2001
                                                                        • 11929

                                                                        #235
                                                                        Originally posted by Brujah
                                                                        The market's pretty dismal still, people thought they hit bottom several months ago or more and were picking up amazing bargains. Wiping out a lot of value in everyone's portfolio. When do you think it'll start picking up?
                                                                        There was a boom in pending orders in January. Up more than 15% in states. If it translates into that large of an increase in sales in February and March we could see the bottom in some Southern and Western states before June with a bottom probably coming later in the Northeast and Midwest. The CEO of Wells Fargo - who have 1/8 of all mortgages in the US - said recently that he sees evidence that a bottom is forming. Not that we are "at bottom" but that "a bottom is forming". One thing he pointed out is that they are now getting multiple orders per house. Prices in the closest market to me; orlando, were actually higher in December than November - though this has happened occasionally during the crisis. Bill Gross said yesterday that he thinks rates will still go down to 4.5%. That is a huge decrease in the mortgage payment one gets and changes the calculus of home buying substantially.
                                                                        Last edited by ADL Colin; 02-11-2009, 03:13 AM.


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                                                                        • slapass
                                                                          Too lazy to set a custom title
                                                                          • Nov 2002
                                                                          • 14625

                                                                          #236
                                                                          How timely was this???

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