Warren Buffet Predicts Real Estate Bubble Burst & More

[Greg B]

http://money.cnn.com/2005/05/01/news...ex.htm?cnn=yes

This old man sure knows how to call em'.

Check out not only his real estate predictions but his Hedge Fund, terrorism, and pharmaceutical predictions.

Some shit is about to hit the fan and I'll bet it'll be either this summer or just before Christmas. What I mean about shit is anything that would damage either the summer travel industry or the Christmas holiday shopping season. Both seasons are the foundation of not only ours but the world's economies. Everyone else lives off America's fat and we're getting to much fat in the wrong places.

Buffet is always right.

[Nismo]

He is like the modern day Nostradamous.

[AdultNex]

Self-fulfilling prophecy

[StuBradley]

Thanks for the link. Good stuff.

[12clicks]

he's an over the hill windbag.
I've seen many housing market spikes and predictions of housing market bubble bursts. The burst never happends. at worst you see a couple years where your house doesn't appriciate for a few years. You never see a decline in real value only a short term flattening.

[StuBradley]

Munger: "Some people seem to think there's no trouble just because it hasn't happened yet. If you jump out the window at the 42nd floor and you're still doing fine as you pass the 27th floor, that doesn't mean you don't have a serious problem."

[rambler]

Originally Posted by 12clicks

he's an over the hill windbag.
I've seen many housing market spikes and predictions of housing market bubble bursts. The burst never happends. at worst you see a couple years where your house doesn't appriciate for a few years. You never see a decline in real value only a short term flattening.

Thats a pretty simplistic comment...but then again you have proven time and time again how simplistic you are.

Originally Posted by 12clicks

...You never see a decline in real value only a short term flattening.

[12clicks]

Originally Posted by rambler

Thats a pretty simplistic comment...but then again you have proven time and time again how simplistic you are.

should non home owners really be making comments in this thread?

[JFK]

Originally Posted by 12clicks

he's an over the hill windbag.
I've seen many housing market spikes and predictions of housing market bubble bursts. The burst never happends. at worst you see a couple years where your house doesn't appriciate for a few years. You never see a decline in real value only a short term flattening.

The entire market goes in approximate five year cycles. If you have been around for a while you will know this. The market will reach a certain hight and then it will correct it self. Real estate is a long term investment and if you know what you are doing there is nothing like it Been there done that since 73

[Greg B]

Originally Posted by 12clicks

he's an over the hill windbag.
I've seen many housing market spikes and predictions of housing market bubble bursts. The burst never happends. at worst you see a couple years where your house doesn't appriciate for a few years. You never see a decline in real value only a short term flattening.

What? There've been localized real estate crashes every year. Especially in disaster areas.

Real estate outside of cartoons and porn is the only thing that can make you rich fast.

Every post hurricane season people pick up and haul ass and sell their shit cheap. Same with blizzards too.

In California when the ground rumbles, people haul ass.

After 9-11 you coulda snagged up real estate in NYC like it was going out of style.

Shit happens-prices drop is an equation you can always bank on.

Not to say everything you've pointed out is wrong, but check history.

[Greg B]

Originally Posted by JFK

The entire market goes in approximate five year cycles. If you have been around for a while you will know this. The market will reach a certain hight and then it will correct it self. Real estate is a long term investment and if you know what you are doing there is nothing like it Been there done that since 73

Wow JFK. Didn't know you were a real estate guru too! No end to talent with you is there?

[12clicks]

Originally Posted by Greg B

What? There've been localized real estate crashes every year. Especially in disaster areas.

Real estate outside of cartoons and porn is the only thing that can make you rich fast.

Every post hurricane season people pick up and haul ass and sell their shit cheap. Same with blizzards too.

In California when the ground rumbles, people haul ass.

After 9-11 you coulda snagged up real estate in NYC like it was going out of style.

Shit happens-prices drop is an equation you can always bank on.

Not to say everything you've pointed out is wrong, but check history.

I don't think Buffet mentioned blizzards, hurricanes, earthquakes or "localized"
and niether did I.

[rambler]

Originally Posted by 12clicks

should non home owners really be making comments in this thread?

Actually, son, I own many properties and I can assure you that their "real" values can decline for the long term.

At their peak, Vancouver prices in real terms were 55% above their 1980 level, whereas today, they are 40% above the 1980 level. In other western markets(such as Calgary),however, real prices today are lower than they were in 1980 ? 25 years ago. This is just one example for those who believe one can never lose money in the ?fail-safe? investment of real estate. Timing is everything. Markets can go through long periods when investors make no money in real terms.

Real estate markets are not all the same.

You may now continue with your insults, 12clicks.

[fl_prn_str]

Originally Posted by 12clicks

he's an over the hill windbag..

But hes a really rich windbag.........I wish I was rich as that windbag.....


the ho's I'de have...............

[12clicks]

Originally Posted by rambler

Actually, son, I own many properties and I can assure you that their "real" values can decline for the long term.

At their peak, Vancouver prices in real terms were 55% above their 1980 level, whereas today, they are 40% above the 1980 level. In other western markets(such as Calgary),however, real prices today are lower than they were in 1980 ? 25 years ago. This is just one example for those who believe one can never lose money in the ?fail-safe? investment of real estate. Timing is everything. Markets can go through long periods when investors make no money in real terms.

Real estate markets are not all the same.

You may now continue with your insults, 12clicks.

son, we're not talking about 3rd world real estate, we're talking about a country where people want to live.

[12clicks]

Originally Posted by fl_prn_str

But hes a really rich windbag.........I wish I was rich as that windbag.....


the ho's I'de have...............

oh, there's no doubt. He's been brilliant in the past. Just not this time.

[rambler]

Yale economist who predicted "tech-crash" also predicts real estate crash:globe and mail link
I personally think we will not have a "major crash" but a minor correction in my market.

[jonesy]

Originally Posted by 12clicks

The burst never happens. at worst you see a couple years where your house doesn't appriciate for a few years. You never see a decline in real value only a short term flattening.

exactly.

[rambler]

Originally Posted by 12clicks

son, we're not talking about 3rd world real estate, we're talking about a country where people want to live.

This has occured in many US markets as well. Right now Australia has a declining market as well as many markets in Europe.....

Why am I even trying to talk rationally to you; you've got a fucking mustache!

[DrewKole]

Lol, all he did was comment on the extreme appreciation that some area's are seeing.

Like 12clicks said, and all you guys were so quick to attack, based on your feelings for him...

At the worst, we'll see a period of time where housing appreciation will stagnate, or slow down. The market isn't going to crash...

If appreciation slows, it'll be mainly investors and people on interest only arms, that will need to rethink their strategy...

The majority of the public won't.

[BVF]

As long as there's no upcoming shortage in HOES then I'm cool. I'm drowning in "raw materials" right about now.

[BRISK]

Originally Posted by rambler

Actually, son, I own many properties and I can assure you that their "real" values can decline for the long term.

At their peak, Vancouver prices in real terms were 55% above their 1980 level, whereas today, they are 40% above the 1980 level. In other western markets(such as Calgary),however, real prices today are lower than they were in 1980 ? 25 years ago. This is just one example for those who believe one can never lose money in the ?fail-safe? investment of real estate. Timing is everything. Markets can go through long periods when investors make no money in real terms.

Real estate markets are not all the same.

You may now continue with your insults, 12clicks.

I love Vancouver. A few years ago I was thinking of buying some property there, I never did get around to it though. I should look into it again. So many extremely beautiful and amazing places there that it's hard to decide where to buy. Great country, and I especially enjoy BC.

[12clicks]

there will be no national bubble burst. There will be small local bursts that all these guys can point to and thump their chests about being right.

Mr. Yale says this is the biggest bubble of the last 100 years. This isn't correct either. there's an area I'm familiar with where in 1969 a house sold for 11,000.
7 years later, that house sold for 33,000 or triple the price
7 years later the house was worth 100,000 or again triple the price.
today the house is worth about 150,000.

Those 14 years were a serious bubble. today, during this great boom, it will take quite a bit more time for MY house, in a town where there are always more buyers than sellers, to triple in price.

its a nice run, its no bursting bubble.

[12clicks]

Originally Posted by rambler

This has occured in many US markets as well. Right now Australia has a declining market as well as many markets in Europe.....

again, simpleton, neither Buffet or I were talking about local US markets.
Nor were we talking about non-US markets.

Originally Posted by rambler

Why am I even trying to talk rationally to you; you've got a fucking mustache!

I haven't had a moustache in years. I understand how tricky it is to keep up with what goes on here with only a year's worth of internet life.

[rambler]

Originally Posted by 12clicks

again, simpleton, neither Buffet or I were talking about local US markets.
Nor were we talking about non-US markets.

My comments apply to the US national market as well.

Originally Posted by 12clicks

I've seen many housing market spikes and predictions of housing market bubble bursts. The burst never happends. at worst you see a couple years where your house doesn't appriciate for a few years. You never see a decline in real value only a short term flattening.

I just re-quoted you so you could see how stupid you sound to anyone who is knowledgable about the real-estate industry.

Originally Posted by 12clicks

I haven't had a moustache in years. I understand how tricky it is to keep up with what goes on here with only a year's worth of internet life.

Did I hit sensitive spot regarding your mustache?.

[xclusive]

of course it's going to burst anybody can tell you that

[romeoboi]

While I am young and might be mistaken, there are some differences in how housing figures into people's overall budgets...

I've been told it used to be considered a good rule of thumb that one's housing costs amounted to 25% of their income (I don't remember whether that is post or pre taxes). However, that figure is more like 30-40% for people in many urban markets - so therefore, they have less financial flexibility.

Also, it used to be that you had to have 20% downpayment to get a mortage. Now people are using 100% financing with little or no downpayment and dont have the kind of reserves in case of any financial problems...

Plus, what about rising personal debt levels? That makes people more at risk for not being able to make their mortage payments.

Add in some major national or regional economic problems and that could start a bubble burst

well... just my cheap two cents

[Shoehorn!]

They don't call him the "Oracle of Omaha" for nothing.

[sacX]

there was a huge real estate bubble in Florida in the 1920's before the depression..

[Mr.Fiction]

Originally Posted by 12clicks

You never see a decline in real value only a short term flattening.

They never decline?



http://www.economist.com/finance/dis...ory_id=1057057

[BlueDesignStudios]

Originally Posted by 12clicks

he's an over the hill windbag.
I've seen many housing market spikes and predictions of housing market bubble bursts. The burst never happends. at worst you see a couple years where your house doesn't appriciate for a few years. You never see a decline in real value only a short term flattening.

house prices in japan declined by up to 90% during the 90's...

[Mr.Fiction]

Originally Posted by BlueDesignStudios

house prices in japan declined by up to 90% during the 90's...

Look at the Economist graph - they continued to decline for years.

[BV]

flattening decline bubble burst

geez enough, please talk about something else!

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by 12clicks

he's an over the hill windbag.
I've seen many housing market spikes and predictions of housing market bubble bursts. The burst never happends. at worst you see a couple years where your house doesn't appriciate for a few years. You never see a decline in real value only a short term flattening.

Try telling that to the thousands who suffered after the UK housing market bubble burst. People were paying off $200k motgages on a propert worth $150K.

The housing market is driven by the low interest rate. that rises the bubble bursts. Then the house of cards collapses. So long as the rest of the world keeps lending the US money it's safe. When they stop then the fun ends.

[12clicks]

Originally Posted by rambler

My comments apply to the US national market as well.

then you'd be wrong.

Originally Posted by rambler

I just re-quoted you so you could see how stupid you sound to anyone who is knowledgable about the real-estate industry.

that's odd. the people who know about the realestate industry seem to be agreeing with me.

Originally Posted by rambler

Did I hit sensitive spot regarding your mustache?.

hmmm, sensitive about how I used to look?
I'm not the one hiding behind a keyboard.

[12clicks]

Originally Posted by charly

Try telling that to the thousands who suffered after the UK housing market bubble burst. People were paying off $200k motgages on a propert worth $150K.

The housing market is driven by the low interest rate. that rises the bubble bursts. Then the house of cards collapses. So long as the rest of the world keeps lending the US money it's safe. When they stop then the fun ends.

dear idiot, again, we're talking about the US.

[12clicks]

Originally Posted by Mr.Fiction

They never decline?



http://www.economist.com/finance/dis...ory_id=1057057

no, idiot. The US housing market doesn't as the chart you provided shows.

[ADL Colin]

Originally Posted by rambler

Yale economist who predicted "tech-crash" also predicts real estate crash:globe and mail link
I personally think we will not have a "major crash" but a minor correction in my market.

Pretty good book. I read it a few weeks ago.

[booker]

In terms of the RE bubble, I think you have to look at who is selling to who. If people are selling to people, it'll keep going up, as long as interest rates, bond rates and inflation are relatively constant.

However, if investors and speculators are selling to other investors and speculators, then the bubble is sure to burst before too long.

Depends on who you are, what kind of capital you are working with and if you are able to ride-out a burst and turn your acquisitions during the next bubble.

[ModelPerfect]

Berkshire Hathaway stock's last quote is $86,000/share. Buffet refuses to let it split, essencially saying he only wanted serious long-term investors in his company. Judging by the shareholder's faith in him, it must have worked.