Birds in asia spreading a new H-series flu. Millions dead in past.

[Cory W]

CDC: Bird flu could cause pandemic


Tuesday, February 22, 2005 Posted: 8:32 AM EST (1332 GMT)


http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/condi....ap/index.html

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A bird flu virus may mutate to a human form that becomes as deadly as the ones that killed millions during three influenza pandemics of the 20th century.

Dr. Julie L. Gerberding, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Monday that scientists believe it is highly likely that the virus that has swept through bird populations in Asia will evolve into a pathogen deadly for humans.

"We are expecting more human cases over the next few weeks because this is high season for avian influenza in that part of the world," Gerberding said in remarks at the national meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Although cases of human-to-human transmission have been rare, "our assessment is that this is a very high threat" based on the known history of the flu virus, she said.

In Asia, there have already been a number of deaths among people who caught the flu from chickens or ducks. The mortality rate is very high -- about 72 percent of identified patients, said Gerberding. There also have been documented cases of this strain of flu being transferred from person-to-person, but the outbreak was not sustained, she said.

The avian flu now spreading in Asia is part of what is called the H1 family of flu viruses. It is a pathogen that is notorious in human history.

"Each time we see a new H1 antigen emerge, we experience a pandemic of influenza," said Gerberding. In 1918, H1 appeared and millions died worldwide. In 1957, the Asian flu was an H2, and the Hong Kong flu in 1968 was a H3.

There had been small appearances of the H1-type of avian viruses in other years, but nothing like the H5 now rampaging through the birds of Asia.

"We are seeing a highly pathogenic strain of influenza virus emerge to an extraordinary proportion across the entire western component of Asia," she said. "The reason this is so ominous is because of the evolution of flu. ... You may see the emergence of a new strain to which the human population has no immunity."

Study already has shown that the virus can infect cats who can then infect other cats, which Gerberding said was "another harbinger" of the possibility of a human pandemic.

"The science here is all alerting us that we have a great deal to be concerned about," she said.

The CDC chief said her agency is getting ready for a possible pandemic next year.

A special flu team, organized last year, continues to monitor the spread of the avian flu and to analyze the strains as they appear.

The government has ordered 2 million doses of vaccine that would protect against the known strains of avian flu. Gerberding said this would give manufacturers a head start on making the shots that would be needed to combat a full-blown epidemic of an H1-type of flu in this country.

CDC is also plugged into an international communication and monitoring system that, it is hoped, will give an early warning of the emergence of a deadly new flu.

[GiantGnome]

i think its been around for atleast 2 years. i remember something about a bunch of chickens here in th US having to be destroyed.

[swedguy]

Did you guys read about the fungus that is spreading in Thailand now?

50-80% mortality if not treated right away.

[GiantGnome]

Originally Posted by swedguy

Did you guys read about the fungus that is spreading in Thailand now?

50-80% mortality if not treated right away.

for a fungus? nope I havent heard about that untill now. great, we get close to finding cures for old things and new deadly things replace them.

[swedguy]

Originally Posted by GiantGnome

for a fungus? nope I havent heard about that untill now. great, we get close to finding cures for old things and new deadly things replace them.

It was on the news last night. I just got in the middle of it and just heard that it was some type of mold that lived in the dirt before the water came and messed everything up.... let me see if I can find an article about it.

[Phoenix]

what the fuck are they doing over there to keep having these things

wasnt it last year they had to kill like a million chickens?

[swedguy]

http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2005/s1290898.htm

Deadly fungus infects 3 Australian tsunami survivors

TONY EASTLEY: Three Australians who survived the Asian tsunami are now again fighting for their lives after being struck down with a deadly fungal infection.

An Australian man who was injured when the tsunami struck Sri Lanka is in the Infectious Diseases Unit at the St George Hospital in Sydney after developing mucormicosis.

The invasive fungal infection often goes undetected. It's very expensive to treat and kills up to 80 per cent of infected patients.

The 56-year-old tsunami survivor is being treated by Dr Pam Konecny, who's the staff specialist at the Infectious Diseases Unit at the hospital.

She says she has heard of two other Australian tsunami victims who've also been infected with the deadly pathogen.

Jayne-Maree Sedgman spoke to Dr Konecny and asked her how often she encounters this infection.

PAM KONECNY: It's a fairly rare infection in normal circumstances that usually affects those whose immune system is more suppressed. But unfortunately when it enters the wounds, it becomes embedded in the wound it can be very, very progressive and invasive and requires quite aggressive management and anti-fungal therapy as well.

JAYNE-MAREE SEDGMAN: What can you tell us about this Australian man who did contract it, it appears, in Sri Lanka?

PAM KONECNY: Unfortunately he was one of the victims who was basically awoken in the morning by the tsunami and really pushed through the walls of his beach hut, and then carried into a rice paddy field where he was then picked up by one of the local people who then took him to a nearby site to have his wounds attended to and some first aid administered.

So he was really dragged through very nasty murky sort of soil and decaying matter, the sort of areas that would potentially contain these pathogens and that's probably where his wounds were inoculated at the time, with these organisms, as well as a lot of other nasty bacterial organisms.

JAYNE-MAREE SEDGMAN: I understand this particular fungal infection is fatal in up to 80 per cent of cases, but it can also go undetected?

PAM KONECNY: Correct. It's fatality is much higher in those that do have a suppressed immune system and they are more susceptible. The problem with it is that it is very aggressive and it's often not detected until it's quite advanced.

JAYNE-MAREE SEDGMAN: Now as far as you're aware, is this 56-year-old Sydney man the only Australian to have returned from a tsunami affected region who's got this infection?

PAM KONECNY: In the last 24 hours, we've actually heard of two more cases of invasive fungal infection in Australia and again, in the wounds that these people sustained during the tsunami.

JAYNE-MAREE SEDGMAN: Have you heard anything from medical authorities who are working in the affected regions as to how prevalent this infection is?

PAM KONECNY: I have spoken with some colleagues. Obviously I haven't been to those areas myself, but we're very aware from our infectious disease network nationally and internationally of the types of infections that are being seen and we are hearing that we have these multi-resistant bacterial organisms that we were aware of the potential for those breeding, or being present in the wound.

But the fungal infection, the problem there that even though the expertise is there in those countries in certain areas, it would be difficult for a lot of people to access that, to diagnose the infections and then even if they do, unfortunately the treatments are so expensive, even in our country and other westernised countries so access to those treatments will be very difficult.

TONY EASTLEY: Infectious diseases expert, Dr Pam Konecny, speaking to Jayne-Maree Sedgman.

It doesn't spread between humans, that's pretty good at least.
But it's pretty sad for the people that made it through the Tsunami and then catches this instead