not at all your 6 numbers are 6 times 1 out of 42 you have a lucky number , there are many many more possiblities


here there are two ,

on this once case the 66% will win or the 33% will win

even thoug that the statistics will always say 66% will win ,

in one case they are equal

i think youre just not understanding the theories behind the mathematics

if i was going to argue with a heart surgeon about how to operate on a patient i would be arguing out of total ignorance

even if i had some kind of opinion
i dont know what the fuck im talking about

Should I run 100,000,000 iterations of the same program to prove the point?


Why are people so stubborn? Probability theory is not that hard, really. Especially not when it's been proven, black on white, how the outcome will be - the probabilities are set.

You can toss a coin 10 times, and the probability distribution may just be 30% heads, 70% tails. But with a significant number of tries, you will get closer and closer to the 50/50 distribution for the experiment.

exactly....

thing is...it doesn't take a brain surgeon to see that one LOL

when we proved it with countless graphs and examples....

And "luck" certainly ain't no variable in probability theory. At least not the last time I checked. :1orglaugh

you are not understanding the fact that statistics are never based on one case

if you play this game once you have absolutely no reason to change, the statistics never help you when playing once

man nick you cannot possibly be this ignorant

thats like saying
theres a 5% chance for it to snow today and a 95% chance it wont

however it will either snow or it wont so 50% 50%

sure it might snow
but the chance of it snowing is 5%
thats the math
thats the point

Let me explain it to you:

If the host says "STC is the Greatest" you have 2 choices. If you choes to say 'Yes' you will have 100% chance of dying of natural causes while choosing 'No' leaves you with the obvious alternative. Not responding is stupid like imaginary numbers.

that is taking it to the extreme,


if you play once statistics never help and I can prove that with stats :winkwink:

2 fiddy

yes they do
thats what statistics are for

percentage you guess wrong = 33%

even if you got lucky and got it right, beat the odds, and subsequently defeated cancer and found jimmy hoffa

you still only had a 33% chance of it happening

The statistical data gathered by experiments only serves as empirical evidence to confirm the theory which holds what we are saying.

so if i'm throwing a dice....

I have 1/6 of getting 6

but you're telling me it's down to this:

50% of getting 6
50% of not getting 6


???

let me buy a shit load of lottery tickets LOL

yt, I will hook up with you in vegas! let's bet on a single number at the roulette! we have 50/50 chances! :Graucho

You can fucking try to argue all you want. His logic does not allow him to believe what you're saying.

However, the statistical probability suggests that Fake Nick is a dumbass who does not want to believe the numbers. Probabilities are set, and do not change, no matter how often you play the game. Whether once, or 10,000 times.

jesus...:1orglaugh

you're making too much sense for this thread :(

whatever you flip a coin 1 time or 1000 times...the odds are always 50/50


in the Monty case..they are always of 66/33

:warning

you have 50 % chance that your 33% wins when there are two options


claiming that you should change based on the 66% chance of winning is claiming that your 66% is equal to 100%

and yet again that is based on one try

no
you have a 33% chance of your 33% chance hitting
thats why it is a 33% chance

the number of elements (two boxes) does not alter the ultimate probability of the entire equation

if the coin is ideal and all that crap

It seems that you don't quite understand the concept of probability and what exactly it holds.

you should try thinking outside of the box


if you put your theory down to one case and one case only you can only conclude that changing or not changing does not matter

saying that you SHOULD change would be equal to claiming your 66% chance = 100%

flipping a coin... of course it's .5 for either side, because you do have two sides which equates to 1/2. In the dice case, P(1)=P(2)=1P(3)=P(4)=P(5)=
P(6) = 1/6.

I believe the empirical evidence that P(win|switch)= 2/3 - however let me try to work this out by myself.

P(win at first try) = 1/3
P(miss at first try) = 2/3 - evenly distributed.

You do not switch - P(win) remains at 1/3.

If you missed with P(miss)=2/3, the prize is behind one of the remaining doors. If you miss and switch, your probability to win equates

1 - P(picked winner at first try) = 1 - 1/3 = 2/3.

So if you don't switch, your P(win) equates P(win picked at first try) which is constant at 1/3.


That sounds reasonable to me. :thumbsup

does your 66% chance win 100% of the times ? if so you cant lose if not you have 50% chance of the 66% winning

It seems just way too convenient to believe that you will have a fiddy/fiddy chance to pick the right door. But the problem is...

the second pick is DEPENDENT on the first one

And nobody has mentioned this yet.

It is NOT an independent draw in the second round. If it were, then yes .5 chance for each door.

But it ain't. Case closed.

No, you can't conclude that. That is what probability holds - it does matter. In this case, switching makes it more likely for you to get the prize.

well thats what a choice is
youre not saying that its 100% for it to be there
youre saying that based on math
it should be there

i have mentioned this
100 times

worded differently

ive said that the empty box the host chooses is the basis for the entire equation

people are just forgetting it ever existed when in reality it is the key to the whole puzzle

Actually, I did kinda mention it when I wrote about immunity in the other thread.

Sorry folks, didn't mean to take your credit. I didn't read the whole thread. :thumbsup

ok either way I dont have time to discuss this further an icq buddy of mine who I explained this thread to and showed link just showed me this

http://www.derrenbrown.co.uk/roulette_press.asp


have to read this first :Graucho

nononono not at all

im just saying that
there is 100% chance that some people will never understand this
no matter how many times we spell it out

that is probability for you

The two events of picking the doors are not mutually exclusive.

Sigh, I am done with this topic really. Good night!

LOL getting kinda frustrating isn't it??

I had difficulties to believe it at first but fuck..I did what you just did a couple of post above...can't go wrong LOL....

dunno whether the chance is 100%, because then all the participating members reading this thread would not agree to our assumptions. But I bet the margin's quite high! :thumbsup

the fact is you dont understand the difference between one time and 100 times

you claim the outcome for 100 will always be equal to the outcome for 1

yes i do

probability doesnt change based on the frequency of the event

So far, it seems like those who understand it are almost all people with a fairly good knowledge about programming and that sort of stuff.

exellent explanation :thumbsup