Lifespan may reach 150 by 2050
doctor
Mohammed Adam
CanWest News Service
Friday, January 28, 2005
OTTAWA - A genetic revolution sweeping the medical field could increase the average lifespan to 150 years in the next half century, the president of the Ottawa Heart Institute said yesterday.
Dr. Bob Roberts, one of North America's leading heart disease experts and a pioneer of genetic molecular cardiology, said significant advances in science and technology have made what was unthinkable 50 years ago possible.
He pointed out that in 1900, the average lifespan was 36 years. By 2000, it had more than doubled to 80.
And while scientists believed it would take another 100 years for the average lifespan to double again, discoveries made in the Human Genome project have led many to the conclusion that it could happen sooner.
Dr. Roberts said predictions by medical experts that heart disease would be wiped out this century are realistic.
"Medicine and mankind are on the verge of a new era," he said. "The average lifespan in 50 years will be 150 years."
Longevity is a controversial issue, with many scientists arguing human lifespan is finite and can be extended only marginally.
Dr. Douglas Gray, senior scientist at the Ottawa Health Research Institute, said the prospect of people living to 150 in the next 50 years is unlikely.
"In the absence of some breathtaking discovery that's currently inconceivable, a lifespan of 150 is unlikely any time soon," he said.
"If you solve cancer, stroke and cardiovascular disease, that will add only 15 years to human lifespan."
Dr. Gray and other scientists say the body is not like a machine that can keep going forever. At some point, frailty sets in and death is inevitable. They say it is the rare individual who will live to 120.
"People do die of old age. It is hard to see what you can do to reduce frailty, which is inevitable," Dr. Gray said.
Dr. Roberts, who was speaking to a group of Ottawa business and technology executives yesterday about genetics, said the Human Genome project makes the prospects for science and technology limitless.
He said the past 50 years saw unparalleled progress in medicine.
In 1953, he said, Queen Elizabeth sent 60 letters to people more than 100 years old in the British Commonwealth. By 2004, the number had risen to 6,000, thanks largely to medical advances far less significant than what the next 50 years will bring.
And in Canada, centenarians are one of the fastest growing segments of the population. In 1981, there were 2,100 centenarians. By 2001, the number had grown to 3,800.
However Dr. Gray, who has performed experiments on ageing on laboratory mice, insisted it is unreasonable to believe people will live to 150.
He said despite the efforts of the best minds, myriad infectious diseases such as tuberculosis and AIDS continue to wreak havoc on mankind. He also noted modern problems such as obesity are becoming major health concerns.
? National Post 2005
doctor
Mohammed Adam
CanWest News Service
Friday, January 28, 2005
OTTAWA - A genetic revolution sweeping the medical field could increase the average lifespan to 150 years in the next half century, the president of the Ottawa Heart Institute said yesterday.
Dr. Bob Roberts, one of North America's leading heart disease experts and a pioneer of genetic molecular cardiology, said significant advances in science and technology have made what was unthinkable 50 years ago possible.
He pointed out that in 1900, the average lifespan was 36 years. By 2000, it had more than doubled to 80.
And while scientists believed it would take another 100 years for the average lifespan to double again, discoveries made in the Human Genome project have led many to the conclusion that it could happen sooner.
Dr. Roberts said predictions by medical experts that heart disease would be wiped out this century are realistic.
"Medicine and mankind are on the verge of a new era," he said. "The average lifespan in 50 years will be 150 years."
Longevity is a controversial issue, with many scientists arguing human lifespan is finite and can be extended only marginally.
Dr. Douglas Gray, senior scientist at the Ottawa Health Research Institute, said the prospect of people living to 150 in the next 50 years is unlikely.
"In the absence of some breathtaking discovery that's currently inconceivable, a lifespan of 150 is unlikely any time soon," he said.
"If you solve cancer, stroke and cardiovascular disease, that will add only 15 years to human lifespan."
Dr. Gray and other scientists say the body is not like a machine that can keep going forever. At some point, frailty sets in and death is inevitable. They say it is the rare individual who will live to 120.
"People do die of old age. It is hard to see what you can do to reduce frailty, which is inevitable," Dr. Gray said.
Dr. Roberts, who was speaking to a group of Ottawa business and technology executives yesterday about genetics, said the Human Genome project makes the prospects for science and technology limitless.
He said the past 50 years saw unparalleled progress in medicine.
In 1953, he said, Queen Elizabeth sent 60 letters to people more than 100 years old in the British Commonwealth. By 2004, the number had risen to 6,000, thanks largely to medical advances far less significant than what the next 50 years will bring.
And in Canada, centenarians are one of the fastest growing segments of the population. In 1981, there were 2,100 centenarians. By 2001, the number had grown to 3,800.
However Dr. Gray, who has performed experiments on ageing on laboratory mice, insisted it is unreasonable to believe people will live to 150.
He said despite the efforts of the best minds, myriad infectious diseases such as tuberculosis and AIDS continue to wreak havoc on mankind. He also noted modern problems such as obesity are becoming major health concerns.
? National Post 2005
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