Record voter turnout predicted - Day of reckoning arrives at last - Clues at 4pm

[Jace]

great article - http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cg...02/TVGUIDE.TMP

Washington -- The first clues as to who will win the White House should emerge before most Californians get home from work.

Polls in Ohio, Pennsylvania and most of Florida will close by 5 p.m. PST, and if either candidate appears to be winning all three, he is all but certain to capture the presidency.

Few expect such tidy -- or timely -- results.

Yet there are other clues to watch on one of the most unpredictable nights of politics in American history. If President Bush is struggling in Republican-friendly Virginia, it is a sign that his Democratic challenger, Sen. John Kerry, might be headed for victory. If Bush is putting up good numbers in Democratic-leaning New Jersey, he likely is headed for re-election. Strong turnout in big cities is a good sign for Kerry. Bad weather could help Bush.

The networks have pledged not to reveal their exit poll projections for any state until all the voting in that state is complete. So even if one candidate surges ahead in Florida, which would be apparent to exit pollsters by the time the bulk of the state finishes voting at 4:30 PST, the information will not be broadcast until those in the western panhandle finish voting an hour later.

If undecided voters nationally break strongly for one candidate -- as each campaign insists will happen -- it is possible that the networks will be in position to declare a winner before polls close in the west. But with projection-shy television executives pledging caution after their miscalculations in 2000, and polls showing a dead heat in as many as eight states, such an outcome is extraordinarily unlikely.

Television anchors will have access all day to extensive exit polls, carefully recalibrated after their 2000 mishaps. Even if they do not share the information with viewers, they may have a hard time containing their insights.

"If they start saying a lot of voters are upset about the war in Iraq, you can read that as good for John Kerry,'' said Chuck Todd, editor of the Hotline, an on-line political newsletter that will monitor eight separate networks this evening. "If they say security is what's driving voters, that probably means Bush is doing well.''

"Watch Brit Hume's facial expressions,'' Todd advised, singling out Fox News' chief Washington correspondent for his poor poker face.

With polls showing a dead head and the electoral map offering countless permutations, here is rough hour-by-hour guide of what to look for (all times are Pacific Standard Time):

4 p.m. -- Polls close in Indiana and Kentucky. Both states are solidly Republican, and while over- anxious analysts may speculate whether Democratic Rep. Baron Hill's tight race in Indiana's Ninth Congressional District portends something more important, it is too early to know. However, the initial reports may provide an indication of turnout around the nation. If voting is high in Democratic strongholds such as Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Cleveland or Miami, this will be a sign that the party's base is acting on its anti-Bush zeal. If turnout is high in more conservative regions of Florida, western Michigan or rural Wisconsin, it is a sign that the Republicans' $120 million get-out-the-vote effort is working. Kerry strategist Tad Devine said a national turnout of 110 million -- a few percentage points higher than last time -- could translate into a Bush victory. However, a turnout of 115 million or higher -- Devine predicted 118 million -- would mean a Kerry victory.

5 p.m. Polls will be closed in an additional 24 states and the District of Columbia. The big states to watch in this batch are Ohio (polls close at 4:30) and New Hampshire. Both went for Bush in 2000, and along with Florida they represent Kerry's best opportunities to pick up electoral votes that eluded Gore four years ago. The vote in Ohio, with thousands of expected legal challenges, may provide the best indication of whether the 2004 election will turn into a drawn-out legal struggle. A clear-cut victory in this state -- which no Republican president has ever lost -- could portend an early end to the evening. Most of the polls in Florida will close at this hour, but a small portion of voters along the Republican panhandle are on Central Time and will vote for one more hour. Republicans complained in 2000 that erroneous reports that Gore had won the state discouraged thousands of Bush supporters from bothering to cast their ballots, prompting the networks to pledge to withhold their projections. The same applies to Michigan, where a tiny portion of voters will keep casting ballots for another hour in the western corner of the state's upper peninsula.

6 p.m. Polls close in 15 states, including the Upper Midwest battlegrounds of Wisconsin and Minnesota. Polls show the race dead even for the 10 electoral votes of Wisconsin, a state Gore won by just 5,708 votes out of more than 2.5 million votes cast. Kerry spent the final night of his campaign in this state. New Mexico, which Gore won by just 366 votes, is among Bush's best opportunities to expand on his narrow electoral base. Bush stopped in Albuquerque on Monday before ending his day in Texas.

7 p.m. Four more states finish voting, most critically Iowa and Nevada. Bush has visited Iowa about twice as often as California during his presidency. A Bush victory in Iowa -- which gave its seven electoral votes to Gore in 2000 -- would signal that his tough stances on security resonate in the heartland, while a loss might be a sign of discontent with the war.

8 p.m. Polls close in six more states, including California. The reliably Democratic Golden State's significance is overshadowed by Hawaii's, where four electoral votes -- according to two recent polls -- are up in the air for the first time since the state joined the union in 1959. Vice President Dick Cheney visited Honolulu over the weekend, a move Republicans described as a sign of Kerry's weakness and the Kerry camp characterized as an act of desperation.

Perhaps most importantly at this hour, every state but Alaska will have finished voting (polls in the far Western portion of that state do not close until 10 p.m. PST.) Cautious networks who may not want to be accused of influencing votes in California and other western states may see this as a good time to declare a winner.

Four years ago, most of the major networks made two big mistakes. First they declared Florida for Gore, then discovered polling mistakes and declared the state -- and the presidency -- for Bush. That premature announcement prompted Gore to concede over the phone to Bush and led some newspapers, including The Chronicle, to print some editions declaring the race over. It was a frantic cell phone call to Gore's limousine as he arrived to deliver a concession speech that alerted him to the vote problems in Florida and the possibility that he might still win.

The concession did not come for 36 days and only after the Supreme Court ordered an end to the Florida recount.

This time, networks are pledging caution. ABC News says it will not project a winner in any race -- even after 100 percent of the precincts have reported -- if the margin of victory is less than 1 percent.

"The priority is being right and being accurate,'' said ABC spokeswoman Emily Lenzer. "That's much more important than being first.''

[Jace]

just to give you an idea of atlanta's voter turnout

clayton county, one of atlanta's main counties, has lines that are reaching further than 1 mile long for voting. the largest lines every in history from what they are saying

[Peaches]

I'm not sure I'd consider Clayton County one of Atlanta's main counties

More democratic than most in the metro area though.

[VeriSexy]

Hmm, I hope the record turnout is because people are sick and tired of Bush

[Jace]

Originally posted by Peaches
I'm not sure I'd consider Clayton County one of Atlanta's main counties

More democratic than most in the metro area though.

i mean that it is one of the main counties atlanta resides in

[Jace]

Originally posted by VeriSexy
Hmm, I hope the record turnout is because people are sick and tired of Bush

obviously

[mardigras]

Originally posted by VeriSexy
Hmm, I hope the record turnout is because people are sick and tired of Bush

Originally posted by JaceXXX
obviously

One thing you have to keep in mind is that the better part of half this country is highly religious. The churches have been one of the most active political organizations in this election. They've been telling their congregations that Kerry will allow all abortion, ban the Bible and force them to accept gay marriages.

This record turnout could very well be the energized Stepfords.