Bush has pulled back ahead of Kerry in the Electoral Vote predictor - GoFuckYourself.com

mardigras · 10-12-2004, 09:36 AM

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

The other day Kerry had 280, yesterday he had 270, and today Kerry at 260 gives Bush 274.

stocktrader23 · 10-12-2004, 09:45 AM

Kerry had 280 the day you saw 270. The reason for the flip today is the new poll for Ohio gives the state for Bush when yesterdays poll had it for Kerry. The 2 polls are from different companies.

I'm just waiting for election day when it will look more like this....

Kerry 324 Bush 196

Bansheelinks · 10-12-2004, 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by mardigras
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

The other day Kerry had 280, yesterday he had 270, and today Kerry at 260 gives Bush 274.

Mardi Gras, just so that you know that goes up and down and this guy who runs the site is exhaustive in his research. Just be thankful........for all of September Bush was way ahead until the debates........it was getting depressive visitng electoral-vote.com every morning and seeing this...........

thank god for the debates, and for the women who are turning back to Kerry

Bansheelinks · 10-12-2004, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by stocktrader23
Kerry had 280 the day you saw 270. The reason for the flip today is the new poll for Ohio gives the state for Bush when yesterdays poll had it for Kerry. The 2 polls are from different companies.

I'm just waiting for election day when it will look more like this....

Kerry 324 Bush 196

Stocktrader, as much as I'd love for that to happen, you are dreaming. For that to happen, Kerry would have to sweep Florida, Penn., and Ohio, as well as Wisconsin, Colorado, and maybe even Missouri.

Its not going to happen. This is going to be very close and it makes me nervous just to think about Bush being back and appointing 2 Supreme Court justices. A lot of pro-Bush ppl on here will end up rueing the day they ever supported him with the big clam-down on us that would be coming.

Bottom line? whoever wins 2 of these 3 wins the election:
Florida
Ohio
Pennsylvania

mardigras · 10-12-2004, 10:03 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bansheelinks
Mardi Gras, just so that you know that goes up and down and this guy who runs the site is exhaustive in his research.

Yeah, so far I've been pretty impressed with his efforts. I generally take all polls with a grain of salt but I give his site a bit smaller grain than the rest

Bansheelinks · 10-12-2004, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by mardigras
Yeah, so far I've been pretty impressed with his efforts. I generally take all polls with a grain of salt but I give his site a bit smaller grain than the rest

I'm really disappointed that this country is even considering voting Bush back in and that he, in fact, has every good as chance as Kerry to win this thing

I just don't get it..........and as an adult webmaster, I'll be extremely upset with four more years of Bush and Asshead if it happens. I know he won't pull Asshead down......in fact, the DOJ's attacks on us will worsen exponentially, I dread.

Any adult webmaster who supports Bush knowing this is brain-dead, imo.

Methodcash Rick · 10-12-2004, 10:08 AM

Every one of these polls has their own way of parsing the data they get..

In the end, the only electoral map that will matter, is the one on the night of November 2nd, or as I suspect, when the Diebolt electronic voting machines, are programmed to say that Bush won.

stocktrader23 · 10-12-2004, 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Bansheelinks
I'm really disappointed that this country is even considering voting Bush back in and that he, in fact, has every good as chance as Kerry to win this thing

I just don't get it..........and as an adult webmaster, I'll be extremely upset with four more years of Bush and Asshead if it happens. I know he won't pull Asshead down......in fact, the DOJ's attacks on us will worsen exponentially, I dread.

Any adult webmaster who supports Bush knowing this is brain-dead, imo.

I don't think Bush has as good of a chance as the polling places and most people think. I'm pretty sure he will feel like he got punched in the guy on election day.

MickeyG · 10-12-2004, 11:21 AM

I'm hoping people come out of the wood work this election and surprise the hell out of bush.

Bansheelinks · 10-12-2004, 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by stocktrader23
I don't think Bush has as good of a chance as the polling places and most people think. I'm pretty sure he will feel like he got punched in the guy on election day.

I can only hope you are right.........I guess we'll see if a) the newly registered democratic voters come out b) women vote heavily as they are leaning more for Kerry c) Hispanics and Blacks vote heavily as they lean more for Kerry, especially black voters

If not, it'll be four more years of Bushgollum and its almost too much to take

TheSaint · 10-12-2004, 12:44 PM

I don't know where that guy gets his data. Last week when he gave it to Kerry just about all news organizations, even left leaning like CNN, were saying Bush was *way* ahead.

I am a Kerry supporter (barely) but its beginning to look like Bush may win by an electoral landslide, unless something else happens.

I wish Kerry would stop screaming about Iraq( where things are actually starting to look not that bad) and start talking about stem cell research, health care, and the looney right - thats where he can bury Bush, not Iraq which most Americans don't give a shit about.

Furious_Male · 10-12-2004, 12:49 PM

Ohio and Florida are going to be huge in this election. We all know Florida will most likely go to Bush in one way or the other but Ohio who the hell knows.

Centurion · 10-12-2004, 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by mardigras
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

The other day Kerry had 280, yesterday he had 270, and today Kerry at 260 gives Bush 274.

Hmm..they put Colorado and New Mexico that were tossups to Bush..problem is they have Colorado weak bush, where it should be BARELY bush..and even have Ohio weak bush, where it should be barely bush also. All the polls show those 2 states to really be a tossup..so don't know what they are basing those "shades" of color on.

CamChicks · 10-12-2004, 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by TheSaint

I wish Kerry would stop screaming about Iraq( where things are actually starting to look not that bad)

because:

Quote:

WASHINGTON, OCTOBER 11: The Bush administration plans to delay major assaults on rebel-held cities in Iraq until after US elections in November, say administration officials, mindful that large-scale military offensives could affect the US presidential race.

Pentagon officials say they will not try to retake cities such as Fallujah and Ramadi?where insurgents? grip is strongest and US military casualties could be the greatest. ??When this election?s over, you?ll see us move very vigorously,?? said one senior official involved in strategic planning. ??Once you?re past the election, it changes the political ramifications?? of a large-scale offensive, the official said.

TheSaint · 10-12-2004, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by CamChicks
because:

Don't get me wrong - I'm voting for Kerry, but that quote misses the point.

The reason Bush is laying low on Iraq for a few weeks so as not to get accused of killing people for political gain. Just about any time the U.S. military moves in Iraq, we win and it looks good on TV. Later on of course we pull back and it gets fucked up again, but short term Bush could get a huge election day boost by blowing up a bunch of terrorists.

Delaying the next offensive is not a conspiracy by Bush, but so as to avoid the usual barrage of complaints that each military action is polically motivated.

hottoddy · 10-12-2004, 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by CamChicks
because:

quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON, OCTOBER 11: The Bush administration plans to delay major assaults on rebel-held cities in Iraq until after US elections in November, say administration officials, mindful that large-scale military offensives could affect the US presidential race.

Pentagon officials say they will not try to retake cities such as Fallujah and Ramadi?where insurgents? grip is strongest and US military casualties could be the greatest. ??When this election?s over, you?ll see us move very vigorously,?? said one senior official involved in strategic planning. ??Once you?re past the election, it changes the political ramifications?? of a large-scale offensive, the official said.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yet ...

Quote:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
U.S. Steps Up Iraq Attacks Before Ramadan

47 minutes ago Top Stories - AP

By ROBERT H. REID, Associated Press Writer

BAGHDAD, Iraq - U.S. troops went on the offensive from the gates of Baghdad to the Syrian border Tuesday, pounding Sunni insurgent positions from the air and supporting Iraqi soldiers in raids on mosques suspected of harboring extremists.

American and Iraqi forces launched the operations ahead of Ramadan, expected to start at week's end, in an apparent attempt at preventing a repeat of the insurgent violence that took place at the start of last year's Muslim holy month.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...q_041012184422

Centurion · 10-12-2004, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by TheSaint

Delaying the next offensive is not a conspiracy by Bush, but so as to avoid the usual barrage of complaints that each military action is polically motivated.

Oh..now that is naivete talking if you believe Bush doesn't do ANYTHING that is politically motivated.

Bansheelinks · 10-12-2004, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Centurion
Hmm..they put Colorado and New Mexico that were tossups to Bush..problem is they have Colorado weak bush, where it should be BARELY bush..and even have Ohio weak bush, where it should be barely bush also. All the polls show those 2 states to really be a tossup..so don't know what they are basing those "shades" of color on.

lol click on this if you have 20 minutes.....he's exhaustive in his endeavors and i appreciate it:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/index.rss its the index

he bases his barely and weak ratings on the latest averages as some polls come out and are so close yet contradictory

bottom line? whoever gets 2 of the 3 battleground states wins:

Fla.
Ohio
Penn.

Bansheelinks · 10-12-2004, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by TheSaint
I don't know where that guy gets his data. Last week when he gave it to Kerry just about all news organizations, even left leaning like CNN, were saying Bush was *way* ahead.

no, this guy is AHEAD of the curve because he is intense and exhaustive in the polling interpretation and results........i wasn't the least bit surprised when the other newsmedias caught up with him and began reporting a tight race

its been this way all year...........because he takes into acct. so much more polling than the other news organizations, who simply do their own and thats it, and because he's objective, he gives you the best idea of where things are headed

Heather Hamptons · 10-12-2004, 01:44 PM

I was all set to vote for Kerry when I heard he supports abortion. Supposedly he has voted against making it illegal to have an abortion and when Bush was trying to make partial abortions illegal, he voted against it 6 times.

Can anyone verify if this is true? I will never vote for someone who supports murder, but i'll never vote for Bush either. Ugh...either way we're fucked.

skyechase · 10-12-2004, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Heather Hamptons
I was all set to vote for Kerry when I heard he supports abortion. Supposedly he has voted against making it illegal to have an abortion and when Bush was trying to make partial abortions illegal, he voted against it 6 times.

Can anyone verify if this is true? I will never vote for someone who supports murder, but i'll never vote for Bush either. Ugh...either way we're fucked.

** Vote for the lesser of two evils ... VOTE KERRY **

Did you catch the debate the other night? Kerry discussed this issue and so did Bush. Kerry does not support abortion. He is a catholic from the get go. But as Kerry stated in his debate, his personal opinion cannot influence the law. The law is simply the law and its interpretation of the law. Kerry advises more education and abstinence to decrease the numbers of abortion.

Here is a great link on the issue

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...-2004Jun2.html

Now, mind you ? you have to read the full article.

"On abortion, I myself, by belief and upbringing, am opposed to abortion but as a legislator, as one who is called on to pass a law, I would find it very difficult to legislate on something God himself has not seen fit to make clear to all the people on this earth. . . . And I think, therefore, with a sense of justice in mind that one has to leave the question of abortion between a woman and her conscience and her doctor," he told the Sun, a Lowell, Mass., newspaper, in 1972.

StuBradley · 10-12-2004, 02:30 PM

You all need to remember that these polls are all based on "likely voters". These are generally people who have voted in the past (if they are over 21 years of age). This election year it looks like there is going to be alot of people (myself included) who do not normally vote going to the polls because they are tired of good ol' Dubbya.

I remember when I lived in Minnesota and Jesse Ventura ran for govenor. Every poll had him with basically no chance of winning. But what happened? Record numbers of Minnesotans showed up at the polls just to vote for the 'The Body'.

Keeping that in mind, I am quite sure that Bush will not be given another for years to fuck up this country and fuck over our industry any longer.

Fuck Bush.

10-12-2004, 09:36 AM	#1
mardigras Bon temps! Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: down yonder Posts: 14,194	Bush has pulled back ahead of Kerry in the Electoral Vote predictor http://www.electoral-vote.com/ The other day Kerry had 280, yesterday he had 270, and today Kerry at 260 gives Bush 274. __________________ .

10-12-2004, 09:45 AM	#2
stocktrader23 Let's do some business. Industry Role: Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: The dirty south. Posts: 18,781	Kerry had 280 the day you saw 270. The reason for the flip today is the new poll for Ohio gives the state for Bush when yesterdays poll had it for Kerry. The 2 polls are from different companies. I'm just waiting for election day when it will look more like this.... Kerry 324 Bush 196 __________________ Hands Free Adult - Join Once, Earn For Life "I try to make a habit of bouncing my eyes up to the face of a beautiful woman, and often repeat “not mine” in my head or even verbally. She’s not mine. God has her set aside. She’s not mine. She’s His little girl, and she needs me to fight for her by keeping my eyes where they should be."

10-12-2004, 12:44 PM	#11
TheSaint Confirmed User Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: Everywhere at once Posts: 991	I don't know where that guy gets his data. Last week when he gave it to Kerry just about all news organizations, even left leaning like CNN, were saying Bush was way ahead. I am a Kerry supporter (barely) but its beginning to look like Bush may win by an electoral landslide, unless something else happens. I wish Kerry would stop screaming about Iraq( where things are actually starting to look not that bad) and start talking about stem cell research, health care, and the looney right - thats where he can bury Bush, not Iraq which most Americans don't give a shit about. __________________ I have no signature

10-12-2004, 12:49 PM	#12
Furious_Male Doing the grind since 99 Industry Role: Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Buffalo NY Posts: 16,883	Ohio and Florida are going to be huge in this election. We all know Florida will most likely go to Bush in one way or the other but Ohio who the hell knows. __________________ Living in Virtual Reality Contact: Email (preferred): furiousmale .at. gmail - Skype: live:shanedws

10-12-2004, 01:44 PM	#20
Heather Hamptons Confirmed User Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Virginia Posts: 2,306	I was all set to vote for Kerry when I heard he supports abortion. Supposedly he has voted against making it illegal to have an abortion and when Bush was trying to make partial abortions illegal, he voted against it 6 times. Can anyone verify if this is true? I will never vote for someone who supports murder, but i'll never vote for Bush either. Ugh...either way we're fucked. __________________ SIG TOO BIG! Maximum 120x60 button and no more than 3 text lines of DEFAULT SIZE and COLOR. Unless your sig is for a GFY top banner sponsor, then you may use a 624x80 instead of a 120x60.

10-12-2004, 10:08 AM	#7
Methodcash Rick Confirmed User Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Las Vegas Posts: 1,720	Every one of these polls has their own way of parsing the data they get.. In the end, the only electoral map that will matter, is the one on the night of November 2nd, or as I suspect, when the Diebolt electronic voting machines, are programmed to say that Bush won.

10-12-2004, 11:21 AM	#9
MickeyG Confirmed User Join Date: May 2004 Location: South Florida Posts: 4,134	I'm hoping people come out of the wood work this election and surprise the hell out of bush.

10-12-2004, 02:30 PM	#22
StuBradley Confirmed User Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Las Vegas Posts: 2,625	You all need to remember that these polls are all based on "likely voters". These are generally people who have voted in the past (if they are over 21 years of age). This election year it looks like there is going to be alot of people (myself included) who do not normally vote going to the polls because they are tired of good ol' Dubbya. I remember when I lived in Minnesota and Jesse Ventura ran for govenor. Every poll had him with basically no chance of winning. But what happened? Record numbers of Minnesotans showed up at the polls just to vote for the 'The Body'. Keeping that in mind, I am quite sure that Bush will not be given another for years to fuck up this country and fuck over our industry any longer. Fuck Bush. __________________ 51-566-514