Stocks are heading down! SELL NOW!!

[MattK]

Technical analysis in the stock market reveals a pattern emerging that started a few days ago (part of a larger pattern that has been going on for months) showing there should be a BIG decline in stocks over the next week, starting tomorrow.

The nasdaq will probably decline more than the dow on a percentage basis.

The coming decline could last a month, and stocks will likely end up way down by the end of the year. Diversification will not help much, this will be an across-the-board sell off.

link plz

[nathan_f]

picture the ocean as the market

now picture google as a big tsunami

tide goes low to feed tsunami

here comes a wall of money heh

[ace0r]

Originally posted by MattK
Technical analysis in the stock market reveals a pattern emerging that started a few days ago (part of a larger pattern that has been going on for months) showing there should be a BIG decline in stocks over the next week, starting tomorrow.

The nasdaq will probably decline more than the dow on a percentage basis.

The coming decline could last a month, and stocks will likely end up way down by the end of the year. Diversification will not help much, this will be an across-the-board sell off.

if you honestly beleive that, then what is stopping you from getting into the derivatives side of investing, purchasing/issuing puts?

[bhutocracy]

I take market advice from Gfy'ers AND unsolicted email with hot stock tips.

[montel]

ok i am frantically selling every share i own cos you said so with no evidence. do you think i should sell my house? should i leave my girlfriend also?

[MattK]

This is not news link yet since it is still a prediction. Here is a good book on technical analysis:
Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, 8th Edition

Here is another excellent book talking about a bigger decline (I'm just predicting a big one month sell-off)
Conquer the Crash

[MattK]

Originally posted by montel
ok i am frantically selling every share i own cos you said so with no evidence. do you think i should sell my house? should i leave my girlfriend also?

Well, wait a week and see if I'm right

Real Estate will probably do ok for the short term, but I would sell any investment properties now while the market is near historic highs.

I'm not sure about your girlfriend, post a pic?

[MattK]

Originally posted by ace0r
if you honestly beleive that, then what is stopping you from getting into the derivatives side of investing, purchasing/issuing puts?

I am short the market right now (using reverse-index funds) I am hoping the nasdaq declindes 10% over the next month. I also have some bets on betonmarkets.com that will pay off pretty well if there is a big decline.

[AWC]

Originally posted by MattK
I am short the market right now (using reverse-index funds) I am hoping the nasdaq declindes 10% over the next month. I also have some bets on betonmarkets.com that will pay off pretty well if there is a big decline.

and if the sky don't fall... you will lose your ass?

[ace0r]

Originally posted by MattK
I am short the market right now (using reverse-index funds) I am hoping the nasdaq declindes 10% over the next month. I also have some bets on betonmarkets.com that will pay off pretty well if there is a big decline.

so why are you cutting yourself short by shorting indecies, if you truely beleive in this info? Why not aim for the heavy hitters in the sectors that are suppoused to take the majority of the hit.

[KRL]

When everyone is selling is the best time to buy something.

That's the first rule of Warren Buffet's investing strategy.

[TheSenator]

I bought 100 AMD stocks at 14.65 about a week ago.

Should I hold or sell?

I think in about three months it will be back up to 17 to 18.

[ace0r]

Originally posted by TheSenator
I bought 100 AMD stocks at 14.65 about a week ago.

Should I hold or sell?

I think in about three months it will be back up to 17 to 18.

you don't want stock tips from gfy..

[Kard63]

Just posting here so I can find it later.

[MattK]

Originally posted by AWC
and if the sky don't fall... you will lose your ass?

I lost a decent amount last year shorting the market while it kept going up. I've taken a break and now looks like a good time to get back in. If there is a big rally tomorrow and next week I would lose more $$$.

[scoobydookc]

things are trending downward over the next month? I'm willing to bet anyone on this board who does get into stocks, isn't selling day to day or month to month, but rather over years... and over years the market trends upwards... something like 30% profit over 10 years on average? grr this discussion is moot who listens end post now

[MattK]

Originally posted by TheSenator
I bought 100 AMD stocks at 14.65 about a week ago.

Should I hold or sell?

I think in about three months it will be back up to 17 to 18.

Tech stocks could be hit the hardest....I would set a stop level so if the stock goes below a certain point (11 or 13, etc) you sell it no matter what so you limit your loses. If you don't have a firm stop limit set ahead of time, it will be harder to sell during a decline.

[MattK]

quote from a recent article about trend-following:

"Fear is stronger than greed, which is why financial markets fall more rapidly than they climb.

Most investors will say the sentence above is common knowledge. But if so, why then do most investors fail to act on what they know?

The failure I have in mind is the behavior toward risk, namely: The average investor is risk averse toward a known gain, but is risk seeking toward a certain loss.

When a stock goes up in price, individuals will sell too soon, especially when that stock has outperformed the broader market. They avoid risk by locking in the gain. When a stock goes down, individuals won't sell soon enough, especially when that loser has underperformed the market. They are willing to risk even deeper declines, rather than to cut their certain losses.

Study after study bears out this truth, both in controlled experiments and in the data reflecting the gains & losses of actual investors. Published results from firms like Dalbar Financial and Vanguard consistently show that over the past 20 years, individual investors and mutual fund shareholders have had average returns that are half (at best) of the annual returns of the broader stock market.

What's more, these same studies and surveys also show that most investors are overconfident in the decisions they make. Put another way, they don't even know that they are their own worst enemy."

[BeHeadR]

Its going to keep falling. Just watch the metals markets gold, silver, and platinum are all way down.

[tbabe]

Originally posted by KRL
When everyone is selling is the best time to buy something.

That's the first rule of Warren Buffet's investing strategy.

You only lose money once you sell the stock, thats my philosophy

[MattK]

Originally posted by ace0r
so why are you cutting yourself short by shorting indecies, if you truely beleive in this info? Why not aim for the heavy hitters in the sectors that are suppoused to take the majority of the hit.

It is easier to bet on a general decline versus picking stocks to short. I use profunds.com, they have industry funds, but only on the bullish side. You can only be short in the reverse-index funds. Plus it is a lot harder (more commisions, etc) to be short a bunch of stocks, with index funds I can move in and out of bull/bear funds with a few clicks once a day. That way if I'm wrong I can get out of a bad position after one day.

[MattK]

Originally posted by ace0r
so why are you cutting yourself short by shorting indecies, if you truely beleive in this info? Why not aim for the heavy hitters in the sectors that are suppoused to take the majority of the hit.

you are right, if I was 100% abso-fucking-lutely certain it would happen I could make more on a big decline. But since it is more of a high probability event, I would not bet everything I own or take overly risky positions.

At betonmarkets.com you can get 12 to 1 returns on long shot bets, so I made some smaller bets there, for example I get 1000% return if the dow hits 9500 anytime between now and June 3rd.

[Illicit]

hope not, I keep most of my money in the market

I think everything will be fine though

[Babagirls]

by low, sell high

[rickholio]

Originally posted by MattK
When a stock goes up in price, individuals will sell too soon, especially when that stock has outperformed the broader market. They avoid risk by locking in the gain. When a stock goes down, individuals won't sell soon enough, especially when that loser has underperformed the market. They are willing to risk even deeper declines, rather than to cut their certain losses.

I'd venture to say that it's at least partially the result of that "Buy, hold and prosper" style of thinking, that riding out slumps yield longer term gains. It's a pervasive message you'll get from any investment house, financial planner and advertising... it's true if you gauge overall market performance, but can be a bad fundimental to cling to when it blinds you from looking at individual stocks or funds.

I'd also add in a mix of people not wanting to admit to themselves that their choices might be wrong. I came across a sort of contest (I believe I read it on Motley Fool, but it was a long time ago and the memory is fuzzy) where a group of people was given (as I recall) $500,000 to invest and a year to maximize return. As it turned out, the people who invested a great deal of time researching their stocks and became convinced that the companies they invested in were the right places to put their money all ended up earning less... it turns out that by convincing themselves of how RIGHT they were by choosing the stocks they did blinded them somewhat to the reality when their choices underperformed, leading to bad returns (or losses) compared to others who had less conviction and therefore more mobility in their investment strategy.

[MattK]

Well despite the positive unemployment numbers stocks were mostly down today (friday), although the semicounductors did well and propped up the nasdaq, the dow and S&P were both down more than 1%, russell 2000 was down 2.5%

I still think we will see bigger declines early next week on monday and tuesday, with stocks being a lot lower by the end of the month.