What can I expect?

[johannes]

Hi,

how realistic is this propsal for a new paysite with own produced high quality content:

Month 1 (15 Days): 50'000 Unique Visitors / Month through TGP's/Kazoo etc.
One Month Membership: 19.90 USD
Three Month Membership: 49.90 USD
Signup Rate: 1:1000

50 new members = 1000.00USD

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Month 2:
150'000 Unique Visitors / Monththrough TGP's/Kazoo
Signup Rate: 1:1000
One Month Membership: 19.90 USD
Three Month Membership: 49.90 USD
Signup Rate: 1:1000

50 old members = 1000.00 USD
150 new members = 3000.00 USD
Total Revenue Month 2= 4000.00 USD

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Month 3:
300'000 Unique Visitors / Monththrough TGP's/Kazoo
Signup Rate: 1:1000
One Month Membership: 19.90 USD
Three Month Membership: 49.90 USD
Signup Rate: 1:1000

200 old members = 4000.00 USD
300 new members = 6000.00 USD
Total Revenue Month 3= 10'000.00 USD

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Month 4:
300'000 Unique Visitors / Monththrough TGP's/Kazoo
Signup Rate: 1:1000
One Month Membership: 19.90 USD
Three Month Membership: 49.90 USD
Signup Rate: 1:1000

500 old members = 10'000.00 USD
300 new members = 6000.00 USD
Total Revenue Month 3= 16'000.00 USD

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Is this realistic? I know that there a cancelations etc. but so you think this is realistic for a businessplan? Please note that all content is girl and girl/girl, done through Playboy-Proven proefssional Photographers etc. Do you think this is serious? What can I expect?

Thank you!

Greetings,

John

[basschick]

it really depends on the quality of your tour and the quality, quantity and exclusivity of your content. and don't forget frequency of updates and ease of use of member area. all of these can figure into the retention question.

if your tour is really good (which means if it sells, not just if it looks pretty), it would be worth offering a trial as well. some programs do well with trials, some don't.

you will see cancellations from your first and second months, so your plan isn't right. if your content really is that good, you could retain at 60% or better. if your tour is really good, you should sell a few more memberships to start out. if you use a trial, a lot more memberships. a good softcore site sells for me at 1:200 on tgp traffic.

[Weppel]

This depends on 1000 factors. No-one can really tell your exact conversion ratios at any point.

You might be going on 1:10 on your traffic, but 1:10000 is realistic too..

[ldinternet]

Kazoos? huh?

Assuming you're inexperienced, you might max out at 0.8% ctr. that means you'll need around 210,000 uniques/day to your pages to reach your target of 50,000 clickthroughs per month.

Anyway, that's not important. Conversions vary wildly. What is important is that your model assumes 100% rebills forever, and that isn't true, so your numbers are way off.

[johannes]

Thanks guys for your help! The cancelation factor I'am aware about, it's just to get some response from this great board.

Until now I have the felling that i'm not too bad with my proposal - hope to hear more answers. Thank you!

John