any thoughts/predictions on when the US dollar will turn around?

[quiet]

pure conjecture, but that's what GFY is all about. has it bottomed out? will it be turning around soon?

or is this a 'correction' that will not see much change for some time?

[$5 submissions]

With the Iraq price tag going sky high, I'm not sure.

[chemicaleyes]

Originally posted by $5 submissions
With the Iraq price tag going sky high, I'm not sure.

exactly

[davidd]

Originally posted by quiet
pure conjecture, but that's what GFY is all about. has it bottomed out? will it be turning around soon?

or is this a 'correction' that will not see much change for some time?

Currency trends are never quick to reverse themselves. Especially with the overwhelming circumstances surrounding the decline in the USD.

It will get worse before it gets better.

Keep on exchanging your payouts to CAD as quick as you get them.

The above is not fear mongering it is merely fact. To be honest with you though, the levels we are seeing now on the USD/CAD, USD/AUD, USD/NZD are equivalent to what they were in the 80's. None of my ForEx services allow me to go back to the 80's but I remember vacationing in OOB, Maine when the CAD used to convert to $.85.

But I feel your pain, when just 2 years ago, being paid in USD was a windfall of cash.

[- Jesus Christ -]

I don't know, its very concerning though.

If not by mid january... all bets are off.

[psyko514]

I wish it would soon, but it probably won't for a while.

Analysts say it'll continue to drop over the next year.

[12clicks]

odd that there was none of this squeeling when the dollar was on its long climb.

The dollar will stop dropping when its good for us to have it stop dropping.
As the worlds largest consumer country, its time we spent the money at home and improved our import/export inbalance.
A lower dollar does all this along with creating more jobs.
its economics 101

[Bex]

Soon would be nice, but I am not holding my breath. I think it will be a while before it sees an upswing.

[Matt_WildCash]

Originally posted by davidd


Currency trends are never quick to reverse themselves. Especially with the overwhelming circumstances surrounding the decline in the USD.

It will get worse before it gets better.

Keep on exchanging your payouts to CAD as quick as you get them.

The above is not fear mongering it is merely fact. To be honest with you though, the levels we are seeing now on the USD/CAD, USD/AUD, USD/NZD are equivalent to what they were in the 80's. None of my ForEx services allow me to go back to the 80's but I remember vacationing in OOB, Maine when the CAD used to convert to $.85.

But I feel your pain, when just 2 years ago, being paid in USD was a windfall of cash.

DavidD, I've got some Australian cash right now, watching the Aussie dollar climb vs the US right now, its 74cents right now, is there anywhere to check online the previous highs in the 90's for the aussie dollar vs US? its the boom bust cycle, as soon as the aussie dollar hits 78cents or 80cents its going to peak and then kill exports and the Australian economy will slow big time, then the dollar with start dropping again. I'd like to know the previous high so I can plan when to move some Aussie money into US.

Is there somewhere online to check this stuff?

Thanks mate

Matt

[Roald]

march next year

[davidd]

Originally posted by Driven


DavidD, I've got some Australian cash right now, watching the Aussie dollar climb vs the US right now, its 74cents right now, is there anywhere to check online the previous highs in the 90's for the aussie dollar vs US? its the boom bust cycle, as soon as the aussie dollar hits 78cents or 80cents its going to peak and then kill exports and the Australian economy will slow big time, then the dollar with start dropping again. I'd like to know the previous high so I can plan when to move some Aussie money into US.

Is there somewhere online to check this stuff?

Thanks mate

Matt

All of my online ForEx dealers cap it at 3 to 5 years of data. I am continuing to search though, as I am interested in getting to the data going back to the 80's. As I recall, the USD was in the toilet through the entire Reagan administration, at the same time the stock market was going through the roof.

I'll follow up later on, but 12clicks' comments were correct. The administration wants the dollar to bottom, to a point. There comes a point in time though when you can send your currency into terminal velocity, or outside forces can send your currency down. OPEC deciding to price oil in Euro's would be one such occurance.

[Nysus]

8-12 years for USD to be strong again.

Cheers,
Matt

[brutus]

It seems that USD is going down even more maybe 1/3 more. That's shit. But I bet that it will go down more... so, better to have multicurrencly accounts & keep USD & EUR separated...

[cold_ice]

When Bush leaves office

[JamesK]

Originally posted by cold_ice
When Bush leaves office

[Mikey_219Inc]

when churches start paying tax

[davidd]

Originally posted by Driven


DavidD, I've got some Australian cash right now, watching the Aussie dollar climb vs the US right now, its 74cents right now, is there anywhere to check online the previous highs in the 90's for the aussie dollar vs US? its the boom bust cycle, as soon as the aussie dollar hits 78cents or 80cents its going to peak and then kill exports and the Australian economy will slow big time, then the dollar with start dropping again. I'd like to know the previous high so I can plan when to move some Aussie money into US.

Is there somewhere online to check this stuff?

Thanks mate

Matt

This is the best currency comparison I have seen.

This takes all major currencies back to 1948 and compares them with the USD. It includes all of the fiat currencies that later became the Euro also.

http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/etc/USDpages.pdf

[RawAlex]

Let's see... it's December, next year is the election, bush gets tossed out on his ear.

Give it about 11 months.

Alex

[HarlotCash Dyker]

Bank interest rates are currently being held down - This deflates the currency and is good for exports - But if Americans borrow too much cash and the banks do not raise interest rates, then there could be a long term problem.

[Morgan]

1/07/04 - 9:36am

[Morgan]

what's the prize again???

[chowda]

when there are no more terrorist in this world.

[irishfury]

My best friend complains about this at all the time lol

Originally posted by Mikey_219Inc
when churches start paying tax

[Gemini]

Spending either has to go down or be shifted to in country before the dollar will go up and be anything like it was. All hail Reagan, err Gdub.

[sacX]

I think the USD will stay week for some time. The pressures on the dollar are

1. too much Government spending (unlikely to improve in election year). The Iraq money hole would be a big help if that situation improved.
2. geopolitical uncertainty USD is no longer safe haven currency.
3. trade deficits (I guess could improve with low dollar).
4. general trader sentiment.

But it really will come down to the economy.. I know people are saying the economy is now doing great.. but this is all on the back of tax cuts and the fiscal lolly scramble. The real question is whether the economy can sustain itself once these stimuli are removed..the jury is not close to coming in on that, and there are some negatives on the horizon (e.g. gold rally, poor recent Fed bonds sales)..

Anyway I hope it turns around.. An alternative option to exchanging money as quick as possible are currency options.. Relative cheap insurance against further depreciation, and good for getting to sleep at night

[Ross]

I hope its soon. Went to the bank today to cash a US$ cheque and exchange rate was 1.79 from $ into £

[Vendot]

> When Bush leaves office

On CNN they cited "Bush Policies" as the number one reason why investors are pulling out of the USA.

[xxxdesign-net]

Originally posted by 12clicks
odd that there was none of this squeeling when the dollar was on its long climb.

The dollar will stop dropping when its good for us to have it stop dropping.
As the worlds largest consumer country, its time we spent the money at home and improved our import/export inbalance.
A lower dollar does all this along with creating more jobs.
its economics 101

You forgot about the US huge national debt... which increase with a low US dollar... which needs to be reimbursed every year if you dont want it to be even bigger....

[eatapeach]

"The dollar hit another low against the euro yesterday - the 8th in a row. Gold rose, briefly, over $410. Both gold and the euro have had nice runs against the dollar; do not be surprised by a pullback.

Still, there are two reasons why these trends are not likely to come to an end anytime soon: the U.S. trade deficit...and the U.S. federal deficit. The trade deficit now requires about $1.5 billion in new lending from overseas - every day. With not enough money coming forward, the dollar is falling. As it falls, fewer and fewer foreigners see the benefit of holding U.S. dollar assets. On the contrary, they will sell...pushing the dollar farther, and perhaps faster, that people expect. So far, the dollar has fallen more than 25% against the euro - with no improvement whatsoever in the trade deficit. This suggests that it will have to fall much, much further.

"The bill for speculative excesses and global imbalances has yet to be paid," warns Stephen Roach.

Adding to the bill are appalling spending increases and deficits of the Federal government. No democrat could have dug a deeper debt hole than the one hollowed out by the George II administration. Spending is rising twice as fast as under Clinton...and more than twice as fast as GDP. This year, federal spending per household will top $20,000.

Everybody wants something for nothing. Yesterday's paper brought a picture of a pack of feeble scoundrels gathered around George Bush while he signed a bill to provide pills for old people. Again, it must have seemed like a wish come true for the drug companies and graybeard mooches. "Keeping our commitment to seniors," was the caption. "Pandering for votes," would have been a better one. "To hell with the young, who will have to pay the bill for this nonsense," the story might have explained. "These geriatric drug addicts vote!"

Americans must think they will never have to pay the federal bills...or the personal ones. Somehow, it will all work out...they must say to themselves. And it will, somehow. But not without regrets.

Short-term interest rates will remain at Eisenhower era lows, said the Fed yesterday. But it is a very different world we live in today, Kurt Richebächer points out in his December letter. In 1959, non-financial borrowing rose 1.4 times the increase in GDP for the year. In 2002, non- financial borrowing totaled $1.34 trillion - 7 times the increase in GDP. It was also true that in 1959, Americans were borrowing the money "from themselves." Net national savings totaled 12% of GDP. Now, with almost no national savings of their own, they rely on the kindness of strangers. Net national savings in 2002 were 0.6% of GDP.

Before too long, we predict, the dollar will barely buy 60% of a euro. Foreigners will hold it in contempt and be reluctant to take it. Each dollar will be an emblem of recklessness, a scarlet letter of financial sin. Traveling abroad, Americans will be embarrassed to open their wallets."

http://www.dailyreckoning.com

[Video-Post]

Let's hope soon.

[Freeway]

Originally posted by davidd

To be honest with you though, the levels we are seeing now on the USD/CAD, USD/AUD, USD/NZD are equivalent to what they were in the 80's.

Thats figures.
The Regan fiasco.

[Ic3m4nZ]

It will turn to 80 cents soon that's very nice

[davidd]

Originally posted by eatapeach
"The dollar hit another low against the euro yesterday - the 8th in a row. Gold rose, briefly, over $410. Both gold and the euro have had nice runs against the dollar; do not be surprised by a pullback.

Still, there are two reasons why these trends are not likely to come to an end anytime soon: the U.S. trade deficit...and the U.S. federal deficit. The trade deficit now requires about $1.5 billion in new lending from overseas - every day. With not enough money coming forward, the dollar is falling. As it falls, fewer and fewer foreigners see the benefit of holding U.S. dollar assets. On the contrary, they will sell...pushing the dollar farther, and perhaps faster, that people expect. So far, the dollar has fallen more than 25% against the euro - with no improvement whatsoever in the trade deficit. This suggests that it will have to fall much, much further.

"The bill for speculative excesses and global imbalances has yet to be paid," warns Stephen Roach.

Adding to the bill are appalling spending increases and deficits of the Federal government. No democrat could have dug a deeper debt hole than the one hollowed out by the George II administration. Spending is rising twice as fast as under Clinton...and more than twice as fast as GDP. This year, federal spending per household will top $20,000.

Everybody wants something for nothing. Yesterday's paper brought a picture of a pack of feeble scoundrels gathered around George Bush while he signed a bill to provide pills for old people. Again, it must have seemed like a wish come true for the drug companies and graybeard mooches. "Keeping our commitment to seniors," was the caption. "Pandering for votes," would have been a better one. "To hell with the young, who will have to pay the bill for this nonsense," the story might have explained. "These geriatric drug addicts vote!"

Americans must think they will never have to pay the federal bills...or the personal ones. Somehow, it will all work out...they must say to themselves. And it will, somehow. But not without regrets.

Short-term interest rates will remain at Eisenhower era lows, said the Fed yesterday. But it is a very different world we live in today, Kurt Richebächer points out in his December letter. In 1959, non-financial borrowing rose 1.4 times the increase in GDP for the year. In 2002, non- financial borrowing totaled $1.34 trillion - 7 times the increase in GDP. It was also true that in 1959, Americans were borrowing the money "from themselves." Net national savings totaled 12% of GDP. Now, with almost no national savings of their own, they rely on the kindness of strangers. Net national savings in 2002 were 0.6% of GDP.

Before too long, we predict, the dollar will barely buy 60% of a euro. Foreigners will hold it in contempt and be reluctant to take it. Each dollar will be an emblem of recklessness, a scarlet letter of financial sin. Traveling abroad, Americans will be embarrassed to open their wallets."

http://www.dailyreckoning.com

May I compliment you on your source of information. We read it daily.

[psyko514]

Originally posted by davidd


This is the best currency comparison I have seen.

This takes all major currencies back to 1948 and compares them with the USD. It includes all of the fiat currencies that later became the Euro also.

http://fx.sauder.ubc.ca/etc/USDpages.pdf

Excuse my ignorance, but what happened between 1976 and 1978 to make the US$ jump 16 cents over the CDN$?

[quiet]

regardless, i'm losing over 70K/month purely on exchange rate.

oh, and davidd should post more.

[sacX]

Originally posted by quiet
regardless, i'm losing over 70K/month purely on exchange rate.

oh, and davidd should post more.

considered currency options of some description? Won't make the exchange rate better, but would protect you against further losses.

[alias]

never

[quiet]

Originally posted by sacX


considered currency options of some description? Won't make the exchange rate better, but would protect you against further losses.

already done. and just as risky in the end.

tell me when the ratio will swing up or down, and i'll make shiltloads on exchange...

[psyko514]

Originally posted by quiet
regardless, i'm losing over 70K/month purely on exchange rate.

oh, and davidd should post more.

eesh... that's a big blow...

i wish i was making enough money to be able to lose $70K a month

[sacX]

Originally posted by quiet


already done. and just as risky in the end.

tell me when the ratio will swing up or down, and i'll make shiltloads on exchange...

hmm. Sure options trading is risky, but when you're using it as a hedge I'd have thought biggest risk would be to not have them. I'm basically paying ~1% which will protect me no matter what the dollar does. Obviously the PCR is probably quite high at the moment, but the potential downside risk on the dollar is huge.

[reynold]

my guess is as good as yours. However, if OPEC starts using EUROS as the main benchmark currency for petrol.... watch out! This may be the beginning of a new era.

[SleazyDream]

Originally posted by quiet
regardless, i'm losing over 70K/month purely on exchange rate.

oh, and davidd should post more.

i cry every time I goto the bank now

[Webby]

regardless, i'm losing over 70K/month purely on exchange rate.

oh, and davidd should post more.

Shit Quiet! That's a lump to dump on exchange rates!!

I dunno, but I can't see the $ getting anywhere for a long time (ie.. a year or so). There are loads of factors, but I can see not a lot of action to help the US bring this up (even if the Treasury wanted to!).

We got stuff like the lowest foreign investment in years on Wall Street - that little bit was $50billion/month but has dropped in the last few months to $4billion. The list is kinda endless...

Frankly.. I smell this is "dangerous" and it not going to go away soon. It may be something to consider in keeping *some* $$'s in a dollar account and waiting - but that's a gamble!

[Webby]

reynold:

my guess is as good as yours. However, if OPEC starts using EUROS as the main benchmark currency for petrol.... watch out! This may be the beginning of a new era.

Splutter!! Na.. I don't think even OPEC would want to cause that trauma!

Most forecasts of that possibility turns a few countries on their heads economically - like the US is "gains a ranking of the current status of Argentina". Who knows, but I don't see OPEC doing this - at least not in one hit.

[Video-Post]

At least there is one advantage...if you invest in something now, it's 20% cheaper.

[psyko514]

Originally posted by Video-Post
At least there is one advantage...if you invest in something now, it's 20% cheaper.

not really. if i'm making US$ and i purchase in US$, it doesn't make a difference how much the US$ is worth in CDN funds.

but if i'm making US$ and i'm spending it in Canada, I'm losing a shitload.

$10K US is worth less than $13K CDN now. A year ago, it was worth over $16K.

[GonePhishing]

Hopefully after this winter quarter.

[Video-Post]

Originally posted by psyko514


not really. if i'm making US$ and i purchase in US$, it doesn't make a difference how much the US$ is worth in CDN funds.

but if i'm making US$ and i'm spending it in Canada, I'm losing a shitload.

$10K US is worth less than $13K CDN now. A year ago, it was worth over $16K.

Yes, if you are looking at it short-term. I was thinking more about the money you made in the past years - it's a good time to reinvest.

[12clicks]

Originally posted by xxxdesign-net


You forgot about the US huge national debt... which increase with a low US dollar... which needs to be reimbursed every year if you dont want it to be even bigger....

Wrong, I don't forget anything.
Your idea would only be true if our debt was owed to europe. its not.
Also, the debt is transacted in dollars making its worth irrelevant. Of course, if we're paying our debt in deflated valued currency, then we're BETTER off, not worse.

get it or do you need a deeper explaination?

[12clicks]

Originally posted by Freeway

Thats figures.
The Regan fiasco.

now here is a perfect example of a poor public school education.

Calling the successful Reagan plan of bailing us out of Carter's recession "the reagan fiasco" is typical of the uneducated/miseducated