There is light at the end of the tunnel.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...rry-poll_x.htm
WASHINGTON ? Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry would defeat President Bush if the election were held today, according to a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll that shows serious vulnerabilities for the president.
The survey, taken Thursday through Sunday, reflects the battering Bush has received from the Democratic presidential contenders for months and the questions raised in the past week about the administration's rationale for going to war with Iraq.
Even as a snapshot at a difficult moment, the poll shows perils for Bush early in the election year:
? Kerry defeated Bush 53% to 46%, a lead outside the poll's margin of error. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards edged Bush at 49%-48%, a statistical tie. Bush bested former Vermont governor Howard Dean by 7 points and retired Army general Wesley Clark by 3.
? Bush's job-approval rating dipped below 50% for the first time in his presidency, to 49%, and his disapproval rating rose to a record 48%. His approval ratings for handling the economy, Iraq and health care all fell to near-record lows.
? Support for going to war with Iraq also dipped below 50% for the first time, to 49%. The proportion of Americans who were certain that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction or was trying to develop them before the war fell dramatically. More than four in 10 said the administration deliberately misled the public about whether Iraq had the banned weapons.
In an attempt to address that concern, Bush agreed Monday to order a bipartisan probe into prewar intelligence. He spoke before meeting with former chief U.S. arms inspector David Kay, who has told Congress that reports the arms existed were wrong.
Bush, whose job approval was a robust 60% just three weeks ago, faces a more difficult landscape and some sobering history. Since World War II, only two presidents have trailed challengers early in the election year. In 1948, Harry Truman was behind Thomas Dewey but won in November. In 1976, Gerald Ford was behind Jimmy Carter and lost.
"Kerry's got a big bloom on the rose ... and as soon as that wears off, this race is going to be competitive from start to finish," says Matthew Dowd, strategist for the Bush campaign. He predicts that either candidate will find himself up or down 3, 4 or 5 percentage points through the year: "In a tight race in a closely divided country, this is where we'll operate."
Mark Mellman, a pollster and strategist for Kerry, says the poll underscores the opening for Democrats.
"People are unhappy with his (Bush's) economy performance, they're unhappy with the situation in Iraq, and Kay has dealt his credibility and/or his competence a real blow," Mellman says. He said Kerry has shown "tremendous strength" in recent weeks.
Among the Democratic candidates, Kerry was supported by a commanding 49% of Democrats nationally who are registered to vote. Former front-runner Dean was second at 14%, followed by Edwards at 13%.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...rry-poll_x.htm
WASHINGTON ? Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry would defeat President Bush if the election were held today, according to a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll that shows serious vulnerabilities for the president.
The survey, taken Thursday through Sunday, reflects the battering Bush has received from the Democratic presidential contenders for months and the questions raised in the past week about the administration's rationale for going to war with Iraq.
Even as a snapshot at a difficult moment, the poll shows perils for Bush early in the election year:
? Kerry defeated Bush 53% to 46%, a lead outside the poll's margin of error. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards edged Bush at 49%-48%, a statistical tie. Bush bested former Vermont governor Howard Dean by 7 points and retired Army general Wesley Clark by 3.
? Bush's job-approval rating dipped below 50% for the first time in his presidency, to 49%, and his disapproval rating rose to a record 48%. His approval ratings for handling the economy, Iraq and health care all fell to near-record lows.
? Support for going to war with Iraq also dipped below 50% for the first time, to 49%. The proportion of Americans who were certain that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction or was trying to develop them before the war fell dramatically. More than four in 10 said the administration deliberately misled the public about whether Iraq had the banned weapons.
In an attempt to address that concern, Bush agreed Monday to order a bipartisan probe into prewar intelligence. He spoke before meeting with former chief U.S. arms inspector David Kay, who has told Congress that reports the arms existed were wrong.
Bush, whose job approval was a robust 60% just three weeks ago, faces a more difficult landscape and some sobering history. Since World War II, only two presidents have trailed challengers early in the election year. In 1948, Harry Truman was behind Thomas Dewey but won in November. In 1976, Gerald Ford was behind Jimmy Carter and lost.
"Kerry's got a big bloom on the rose ... and as soon as that wears off, this race is going to be competitive from start to finish," says Matthew Dowd, strategist for the Bush campaign. He predicts that either candidate will find himself up or down 3, 4 or 5 percentage points through the year: "In a tight race in a closely divided country, this is where we'll operate."
Mark Mellman, a pollster and strategist for Kerry, says the poll underscores the opening for Democrats.
"People are unhappy with his (Bush's) economy performance, they're unhappy with the situation in Iraq, and Kay has dealt his credibility and/or his competence a real blow," Mellman says. He said Kerry has shown "tremendous strength" in recent weeks.
Among the Democratic candidates, Kerry was supported by a commanding 49% of Democrats nationally who are registered to vote. Former front-runner Dean was second at 14%, followed by Edwards at 13%.
Comment