New Baghdad poll

[ADL Colin]

The Gallup Organization (world's best poll takers) just completed a survey of Baghdad. Pretty mixed results overall. Should be noted these numbers would be even more pro-coalition outside of Baghdad (probably 100% in Kurdish areas ;-) (

"-- Nearly two-thirds (62%) of Baghdad's citizens think ousting Saddam Hussein was worth any hardships they have personally endured since the invasion.

-- Nearly half (47%) thinks the country as a whole is currently worse off than it was before the invasion - only a third (33%) thinks it is already in better shape.

-- Two-thirds (67%) believe Iraq will be in better condition five years from now than it was before the U.S. and British-led invasion; just 8% think it will be worse off.

-- Most (61%) take a favorable view of the new Iraqi Governing Council, but see its policies and decisions "still mostly determined by the coalition's own authorities" (75%).

-- Fully half (50%) think that the Coalition Provisional Authority is doing a better job now than was the case two months ago, while just 14% think it is doing a worse job. "

[sacX]

The poll also found that 29 percent of Baghdad residents had a favorable view of the United States.

By comparison, 55 percent had a favorable view of France.


lol

[Mr.Fiction]

Originally posted by sacX
The poll also found that 29 percent of Baghdad residents had a favorable view of the United States.

By comparison, 55 percent had a favorable view of France.


lol

Why did Colin leave that out?

The poll also found that 29 percent of Baghdad residents had a favorable view of the United States, while 44 percent had a negative view. By comparison, 55 percent had a favorable view of France.

Similarly, half of Baghdad residents had a negative view of President Bush, while 29 percent had a favorable view of him. In contrast, French President Jacques Chirac drew a 42 percent favorable rating.

[ADL Colin]

Originally posted by sacX
The poll also found that 29 percent of Baghdad residents had a favorable view of the United States.

I'd guess then that the war greatly increased the favorable view of the US.

Jordanians only have a 1% favorable view of the US (Pew Poll) and they're right on the border.

[Mr.Fiction]

Originally posted by Colin


I'd guess then that the war greatly increased the favorable view of the US.

Jordanians only have a 1% favorable view of the US (Pew Poll) and they're right on the border.

We should bet on when Bush's rising popularity in Iraq will surpass his falling popularity in the U.S.

Maybe he can run for president of Iraq in 2005?

[sacX]

Originally posted by Colin


I'd guess then that the war greatly increased the favorable view of the US.

Jordanians only have a 1% favorable view of the US (Pew Poll) and they're right on the border.

what relevance does Jordan's feelings have? is that Jordan percentage pre or post-war?

[sacX]

IHT

"The swing was even sharper in Indonesia, where Islamic radicalism has been rising since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in New York and Washington.

While 75 percent had a favorable opinion of the United States in 2000, 83 percent now have an unfavorable view. Similar levels of animosity hold sway in the Palestinian Authority and Jordan."

yup winning friends all over the world.

[ADL Colin]

Originally posted by sacX


what relevance does Jordan's feelings have? is that Jordan percentage pre or post-war?

Choose your "ism". Islamism, Pan-Arabism, Middle Easternism. Anti-US feelings have been high in the Middle East ever since
Nasser teamed with the Soviets.

[ADL Colin]

Originally posted by sacX


yup winning friends all over the world.

Why is it that you display the same friend-making skills
as the nation you despise? Your mirror broke?

[kiwi]

what was the sample pool?

[ADL Colin]

Originally posted by sacX


"The swing was even sharper in Indonesia, where Islamic radicalism has been rising since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in New York and Washington.

Note: "Islamic radicalism has been rising since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks in New York and Washington" not "Islamic radicalism has been rising since the invasion of Iraq". Any chance to inflict a few scrapes upon the mighty eagle will breed more of the same. They're after the whole flock.

Later it will be Paris, London, and Moscow.

[ADL Colin]

Originally posted by kiwi
what was the sample pool?

Gallup:

"The strict, probability-based sample used by Gallup to conduct this survey projects with scientific accuracy to all adults (aged 18 and older) residing in urban areas within the governorate of Baghdad. All 1,178 interviews were conducted face-to-face, in the privacy of the respondent?s own home.

Interviewing was conducted during the period of Aug. 28 through Sept. 4, 2003. The cooperation rate exceeded 97%, that is, fewer than 3% of those we contacted refused to be interviewed. Average interview length was 70 minutes. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±2.7%.

The governorate (mohafatha) of Baghdad has a total population of 6,386,067 (2003 estimate) -- a quarter of the entire population of Iraq. It is comprised of administrative units known as qadha. Qadhas may contain both urban and rural districts; those qadha closest to the city?s center, however, are comprised solely of urban districts. Because the objective was to survey the views of urban residents, rural districts lying within the outer boundaries of the Baghdad governorate were excluded from the survey?s sampling frame.

Each qadha, in turn, consists of multiple neighborhoods, known as nahiyas, which vary in population size. There are a total of 728 urban nahiyas within the governorate of Baghdad. The adult population of each of these, (defined as those born in 1985 or earlier), was obtained by Gallup from a 2002 Central Statistical Office update. These data allowed Gallup to assign the appropriate population weight for each of the nahiyas into which a sampling point (PSU) for our survey fell.

Each nahiya is made up of blocks, or majals. Majals contain multiple, proximate housing units, often along the course of a given road or street (longer roads stretch across multiple majals). Within our sampling frame, there are nearly 30,000 (29,779) majals.

Selection of the sample was done at the qadha level, with a total of 122 primary sampling units (PSUs) selected on a strict, probability-proportional-to-size basis. An average of 10 interviews, one per household, was conducted in each of these locations.

Once the number of PSUs to be allocated to a given qadha was determined, these were then assigned -- again, on a probability-based basis -- to specific nahiyas and majals within that qadha, with no more than one majal selected within any given nahiya.

For example, the qadha of Rasafa was allocated, on the basis of its total population, 25 of the sample?s 122 PSUs. Rasafa consists of 210 urban nahiyas, and 6,738 majals; our 25 PSUs for Rasafa were selected from among these 6,738 majals, not more than one per nahiya, on a random probability basis.

Interviewers were given the all the relevant address details for each PSU. However, since the only available residential listings were based on a 1997 census, all residential listings had to be updated.

In addition, the available listings consisted solely of dwelling addresses, regardless of the number of independent families residing within a given housing unit. Therefore, we compiled separate listings identifying independent families, based on the criterion of their preparing or eating meals independently.

In those instances where more than ten independent families resided in a given, selected majal, a random selection table was used to select which families would be interviewed.

Finally, within each selected household, the specific adult to be interviewed was selected by the Kish method. This research procedure, designed to ensure proper representation of all age groups and both genders in the sample, involves first recording the ages and sex of each of a selected household's adults on a grid. The respondent to be interviewed is then selected according to a prescribed systematic procedure."

[sacX]

Originally posted by Colin


Why is it that you display the same friend-making skills
as the nation you despise? Your mirror broke?

heh now you're just getting emotional.. What makes you think I despise the US? That's ridiculous my livelihood comes from that country. Sure I think the administration has the wrong approach to foreign relations, but I don't blame an entire country for them.