What Will the Adult Industry Look Like in 2030?

[BAKO]

Curious where everyone thinks the industry is heading over the next 5 years.

A few things already changing fast:

• AI girlfriends and AI creators
• Telegram/private monetization replacing OF for some creators
• SEO traffic getting harder
• Tube traffic shifting more mobile and short-session
• Mainstream ad restrictions getting tighter
• VR/interactive content slowly growing
• Fewer large affiliates, more automated media buying
• AI generated content flooding tubes and socials

Questions for everyone:

• What business models survive long term?
• Will real creators always outperform AI?
• Will traffic become more expensive or cheaper?
• What ad formats will dominate in 2030?
• Does OnlyFans still lead in 5 years?
• Are tubes becoming entertainment brands instead of porn sites?
• Does Telegram/private communities replace subscription platforms?
• Will AI chat companions become bigger than cams?

Would be interesting to hear opinions from publishers, affiliates, networks, creators, and dirty GFY webmasters that have been in the business for years

[Farang]

'smart money left long ago'

[celandina]

Originally Posted by BAKO

Curious where everyone thinks the industry is heading over the next 5 years.

A few things already changing fast:

• AI creators

Questions for everyone:

• What business models survive long term?


Would be interesting to hear opinions from publishers, affiliates, networks, creators, and dirty GFY webmasters that have been in the business for years

I have deleted ALL your assumptions except ONE, and questions as I believe they will NOT be relevant in 2030.


I believe the geeks living now in mom's basements eating mac and cheese and stimulants ( OK lets call them AI creators), will mature and will become the critical part of an adult industry, just as it is starting in the mainstream already. These AI creators will be only a part ,albeit a critical part, of the industry ( see below business model) BUT they cannot replace the rest of the " production" skills provided by experienced producers; that being, creating the mode of content, executing it to look real, editing it into a dramatic structure, creating quality sound ( including composition or selection of proper music), then mix it all together, master it, promote it........and the MOST important: Being able to sell it AND to make a profit. Without the last part ( PROFIT !!!) AI is nothing but just talk.

Whether it was Bill Gates, Sumner Redstone or even Samuel Goldwyn they were and are still correct:"Content is King", that has not changed. Already the Internet is full of phoney looking sucking and fucking " meat and potato" sex clips nobody watches or cares for and/or various extreme clips ( mostly violence by men against women) which may be watched by many but impossible to monetise because NO payment processor will accept such content. If you are relegated to collect money via Gmail ? Good luck to collect enough to make a profit. So what is left? In my opinion AI gives the adult producers the opportunity to create dramatic story driven " films" with many exciting locations, 100's of extras and characters created so believably that the viewer forgets ( albeit he knows) that he is watching AI and gets immersed into the movie as if it was created " the old fashion way. Best explained .. Today you can already make: " Gladiator" but with sex, tits and ass".

For this to succeed however, the AI creators MUST get "in tune" with the producers and realise that one cannot " live" without the other.

[AmeliaG]

Originally Posted by celandina

I have deleted ALL your assumptions except ONE, and questions as I believe they will NOT be relevant in 2030.


I believe the geeks living now in mom's basements eating mac and cheese and stimulants ( OK lets call them AI creators), will mature and will become the critical part of an adult industry, just as it is starting in the mainstream already. These AI creators will be only a part ,albeit a critical part, of the industry ( see below business model) BUT they cannot replace the rest of the " production" skills provided by experienced producers; that being, creating the mode of content, executing it to look real, editing it into a dramatic structure, creating quality sound ( including composition or selection of proper music), then mix it all together, master it, promote it........and the MOST important: Being able to sell it AND to make a profit. Without the last part ( PROFIT !!!) AI is nothing but just talk.

Whether it was Bill Gates, Sumner Redstone or even Samuel Goldwyn they were and are still correct:"Content is King", that has not changed. Already the Internet is full of phoney looking sucking and fucking " meat and potato" sex clips nobody watches or cares for and/or various extreme clips ( mostly violence by men against women) which may be watched by many but impossible to monetise because NO payment processor will accept such content. If you are relegated to collect money via Gmail ? Good luck to collect enough to make a profit. So what is left? In my opinion AI gives the adult producers the opportunity to create dramatic story driven " films" with many exciting locations, 100's of extras and characters created so believably that the viewer forgets ( albeit he knows) that he is watching AI and gets immersed into the movie as if it was created " the old fashion way. Best explained .. Today you can already make: " Gladiator" but with sex, tits and ass".

For this to succeed however, the AI creators MUST get "in tune" with the producers and realise that one cannot " live" without the other.

I completely agree.

People who think AI is a shortcut to productivity without having any skills will be wildly outperformed by people using AI to amplify their expertise.

[CaptainHowdy]

It will be like . . .

[dirtypornworld]

Originally Posted by celandina

I have deleted ALL your assumptions except ONE, and questions as I believe they will NOT be relevant in 2030.


I believe the geeks living now in mom's basements eating mac and cheese and stimulants ( OK lets call them AI creators), will mature and will become the critical part of an adult industry, just as it is starting in the mainstream already. These AI creators will be only a part ,albeit a critical part, of the industry ( see below business model) BUT they cannot replace the rest of the " production" skills provided by experienced producers; that being, creating the mode of content, executing it to look real, editing it into a dramatic structure, creating quality sound ( including composition or selection of proper music), then mix it all together, master it, promote it........and the MOST important: Being able to sell it AND to make a profit. Without the last part ( PROFIT !!!) AI is nothing but just talk.

Whether it was Bill Gates, Sumner Redstone or even Samuel Goldwyn they were and are still correct:"Content is King", that has not changed. Already the Internet is full of phoney looking sucking and fucking " meat and potato" sex clips nobody watches or cares for and/or various extreme clips ( mostly violence by men against women) which may be watched by many but impossible to monetise because NO payment processor will accept such content. If you are relegated to collect money via Gmail ? Good luck to collect enough to make a profit. So what is left? In my opinion AI gives the adult producers the opportunity to create dramatic story driven " films" with many exciting locations, 100's of extras and characters created so believably that the viewer forgets ( albeit he knows) that he is watching AI and gets immersed into the movie as if it was created " the old fashion way. Best explained .. Today you can already make: " Gladiator" but with sex, tits and ass".

For this to succeed however, the AI creators MUST get "in tune" with the producers and realise that one cannot " live" without the other.

Very true

[cordoba]

Originally Posted by BAKO

Curious where everyone thinks the industry is heading over the next 5 years.

A few things already changing fast:

• AI girlfriends and AI creators
• Telegram/private monetization replacing OF for some creators
• SEO traffic getting harder
• Tube traffic shifting more mobile and short-session
• Mainstream ad restrictions getting tighter
• VR/interactive content slowly growing
• Fewer large affiliates, more automated media buying
• AI generated content flooding tubes and socials

Questions for everyone:

• What business models survive long term?
• Will real creators always outperform AI?
• Will traffic become more expensive or cheaper?
• What ad formats will dominate in 2030?
• Does OnlyFans still lead in 5 years?
• Are tubes becoming entertainment brands instead of porn sites?
• Does Telegram/private communities replace subscription platforms?
• Will AI chat companions become bigger than cams?

Would be interesting to hear opinions from publishers, affiliates, networks, creators, and dirty GFY webmasters that have been in the business for years

Good list, but crazy you didn't mention the fact that virtually every country on Earth is going to absolute war on porn and trying to get the industry effectively closed down. THAT'S the biggest challenge.

For example, already there are lobby groups campaigning to have AI companions banned, and first attempts at legislation: https://www.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/...l_to_felonize/

But yes, if they survive the legislation then AI companions will surely become much bigger than cams. It's only just getting started.

Sites like OnlyFans will have to ensure that the subscriber can trust that the content is real and not AI, which will likely be impossible in the long run.

Smartglasses are taking off really fast, already starting to dwarf VR headset sales. In a couple of years you can have an AI AR girlfriend constantly with you on your glasses.

In five years time (I know it's always in five years time) sex robots might finally be here. Most likely, the home help humanoid robots like Tesla and Figure will start becoming popular in homes and there will be a market for "add ons", including "skins".

[RyuLion]

Most of what you said has already been here. I still go to the conventions, adult and mainstream seminars.

[DemonitizedPorn]

SHIT!

Everything looks like shit and it's all going to get worse. So Porn will NOT be an exception.

1986 gave us Top Gun, Highlander and Platoon. Sports gave us Micheal Jordan and Larry Bird. Music was Aerosmith with Run DMC, Peter Gabrial and Madonna. Porn was Nina Hartley, Ginger Lynn and Christy Canyon.

Today we've got culturally void garbage that barely makes nickles. Hollywood is dead, Hip Hop is +30 years old autotune and sport heroes are taking a knee for politics. Today's porn is an ugly whore with tattoos and a webcam and no idea how to suck dick because she's stoned and on welfare.

So what will porn look like in 2030??

IT WILL LOOK LIKE SHIT!

[CurrentlySober]

Originally Posted by DemonitizedPorn

SHIT!

i lik shit

[celandina]

Very true :

Today we've got culturally void garbage that barely makes nickels. ..........Today's porn is an ugly whore with tattoos and a webcam and no idea how to suck dick because she's stoned and on welfare.

[Huggles]

Originally Posted by DemonitizedPorn

Today's porn is an ugly whore with tattoos and a webcam and no idea how to suck dick because she's stoned and on welfare.

I can save her

[freeme]

The smart ones made their money and got out. We don’t have to worry about 2030 😂😂😂

[Huggles]

Originally Posted by freeme

The smart ones made their money and got out. We don’t have to worry about 2030 😂😂😂

I spent it all on wine, women, and song

The rest I wasted!

[celandina]

Originally Posted by freeme

The smart ones made their money and got out. We don’t have to worry about 2030 😂😂😂

I will make more money with AI story driven erotica then before. Working on it real hard. Will keep you posted.

[Charli09]

I completely agree with you, but truly smart people are the ones who are already planning for the next 5 years ahead. And you’re absolutely right AI does not make every person capable on its own. A skilled person knows how to use AI effectively and take full advantage of it.

[DemonitizedPorn]

Originally Posted by celandina

I will make more money with AI story driven erotica then before. Working on it real hard. Will keep you posted.

AI porn might become the next messianic savior or it might become as unpopular as 3D porn.

The current situation is:

1. AI developers are liars. (The bulk of big tech's money comes from bullshitting governments, investors and the stock market)

2. It's political

• (a) United Nations is debating its use in warfare and calls to ban its use are increasing. (Blame Trump bombing Mintab school)
• (b) Human rights groups are screaming for its death (Orwellian 'pre-crime" is here - cops stalking women with flock, etc..)
• (c) Environmental activists are demanding controls on data center construction
• (d) No one wants a data center in their neighborhood (eg. Local politicians getting shot at)
• (e) AI Generated Fake Child Porn creation is being debated in E.U. parliament

3. AI is waging a "Take No Prisoner" assault on copyright laws. (Those who control old wealth & power aren't happy)

4. The average person doesn't truly use AI. (At best it's used as a search engine for them)

5. AI slop is the norm and it's growing expotentially (Blame India and poor nations who see this is another way to earn money from nothing)

[2MuchMark]

Virtual models will completely takeover the adult industry. Anyone who wants any kind of porn fix will get it from an AI-generated clip, or talk to an AI-generated virtual model in real time.

Most of today's current models will lose all of their income. Some human models will do well because they will become a human niche as some users will still prefer real models over virtual ones, but they will struggle to pay the higher prices vs the price of virtual models.

[Huggles]

Originally Posted by DemonitizedPorn

money from(for) nothing

And your (AI) chicks for free...

[1215]

We're all having sex with robots.

[~Evilin~]

Considering the rapidly developing AI technologies, I think that in the near future a human-computer interface will be created that stimulates pleasure centers directly through magnetic stimulation. Such a machine already exists and is currently used in therapy, so it will be interesting.

[celandina]

Front page of Variety from Cannes FF three days ago.



.... its happening in mainstream, adult soon to follow. What would have cost 100 + mil, now you can get for 300 K. By the same analogy my 30K adult shoot should be ........I say 3K.

Its fucking INEVITABLE

[cezar78]

People will start to hate AI content. All websites will start to mark and filter AI videos/pics. Face scan or ID checking will be mandatory on all xxx websites. Hard time is coming

[Peace]

I think real creators still win when there is trust and personality. AI will flood cheap visuals, but buyers and fans still care about identity, custom work, rights, and knowing the content is legit. The business models that survive are probably the ones combining real verified talent, clean traffic, and fast custom production.

[DemonitizedPorn]

Originally Posted by Peace

I think real creators still win when there is trust and personality.

For real creators to win this fight 2 things need to be addressed. (1.) Distribution. The Internet is a race to the bottom for Hollywood movies, TV shows, music and even porn. (2.) Middlemen need to be eliminated.

[Huggles]

Originally Posted by cezar78

Hard time is coming

.............

[celandina]

Originally Posted by Peace

I think real creators still win when there is trust and personality. AI will flood cheap visuals, but buyers and fans still care about identity, custom work, rights, and knowing the content is legit. The business models that survive are probably the ones combining real verified talent, clean traffic, and fast custom production.

I am after 100% AI created characters and am working with some developers who will create such characters.... there will NOT be " real verified talent" it will be 100 AI created.
It will be the crux of the matter once I submit the agreement where there is guarantee that the characters do NOT infringe ... If any of them " balk" on this bit, the project will stop. Will keep you posted.

[celandina]

Originally Posted by DemonitizedPorn

For real creators to win this fight 2 things need to be addressed. (1.) Distribution. The Internet is a race to the bottom for Hollywood movies, TV shows, music and even porn. (2.) Middlemen need to be eliminated.

I now have an investor group who distributes their own product on one of the major US AVOD platforms and want me to create AI horror movies for them, yet they still need a " middle man" to license ALL other World territories.

As to my project? We have our own VOD streaming platform so NO "middle man"needed

[f4rsAdd]

i think porn ,webcam will be for many years and AI cant replace this industry

[Rochard]

We are getting to a point where a model will take a few selfies, turn it over to AI, and they will reproduce different versions of that photo thousands of times, automatically post to all social media, create an Only Fans account, and drive traffic to it.