What Will the Adult Industry Look Like in 2030?

[BAKO]

Curious where everyone thinks the industry is heading over the next 5 years.

A few things already changing fast:

• AI girlfriends and AI creators
• Telegram/private monetization replacing OF for some creators
• SEO traffic getting harder
• Tube traffic shifting more mobile and short-session
• Mainstream ad restrictions getting tighter
• VR/interactive content slowly growing
• Fewer large affiliates, more automated media buying
• AI generated content flooding tubes and socials

Questions for everyone:

• What business models survive long term?
• Will real creators always outperform AI?
• Will traffic become more expensive or cheaper?
• What ad formats will dominate in 2030?
• Does OnlyFans still lead in 5 years?
• Are tubes becoming entertainment brands instead of porn sites?
• Does Telegram/private communities replace subscription platforms?
• Will AI chat companions become bigger than cams?

Would be interesting to hear opinions from publishers, affiliates, networks, creators, and dirty GFY webmasters that have been in the business for years

[Farang]

'smart money left long ago'

[celandina]

Originally Posted by BAKO

Curious where everyone thinks the industry is heading over the next 5 years.

A few things already changing fast:

• AI creators

Questions for everyone:

• What business models survive long term?


Would be interesting to hear opinions from publishers, affiliates, networks, creators, and dirty GFY webmasters that have been in the business for years

I have deleted ALL your assumptions except ONE, and questions as I believe they will NOT be relevant in 2030.


I believe the geeks living now in mom's basements eating mac and cheese and stimulants ( OK lets call them AI creators), will mature and will become the critical part of an adult industry, just as it is starting in the mainstream already. These AI creators will be only a part ,albeit a critical part, of the industry ( see below business model) BUT they cannot replace the rest of the " production" skills provided by experienced producers; that being, creating the mode of content, executing it to look real, editing it into a dramatic structure, creating quality sound ( including composition or selection of proper music), then mix it all together, master it, promote it........and the MOST important: Being able to sell it AND to make a profit. Without the last part ( PROFIT !!!) AI is nothing but just talk.

Whether it was Bill Gates, Sumner Redstone or even Samuel Goldwyn they were and are still correct:"Content is King", that has not changed. Already the Internet is full of phoney looking sucking and fucking " meat and potato" sex clips nobody watches or cares for and/or various extreme clips ( mostly violence by men against women) which may be watched by many but impossible to monetise because NO payment processor will accept such content. If you are relegated to collect money via Gmail ? Good luck to collect enough to make a profit. So what is left? In my opinion AI gives the adult producers the opportunity to create dramatic story driven " films" with many exciting locations, 100's of extras and characters created so believably that the viewer forgets ( albeit he knows) that he is watching AI and gets immersed into the movie as if it was created " the old fashion way. Best explained .. Today you can already make: " Gladiator" but with sex, tits and ass".

For this to succeed however, the AI creators MUST get "in tune" with the producers and realise that one cannot " live" without the other.

[AmeliaG]

Originally Posted by celandina

I have deleted ALL your assumptions except ONE, and questions as I believe they will NOT be relevant in 2030.


I believe the geeks living now in mom's basements eating mac and cheese and stimulants ( OK lets call them AI creators), will mature and will become the critical part of an adult industry, just as it is starting in the mainstream already. These AI creators will be only a part ,albeit a critical part, of the industry ( see below business model) BUT they cannot replace the rest of the " production" skills provided by experienced producers; that being, creating the mode of content, executing it to look real, editing it into a dramatic structure, creating quality sound ( including composition or selection of proper music), then mix it all together, master it, promote it........and the MOST important: Being able to sell it AND to make a profit. Without the last part ( PROFIT !!!) AI is nothing but just talk.

Whether it was Bill Gates, Sumner Redstone or even Samuel Goldwyn they were and are still correct:"Content is King", that has not changed. Already the Internet is full of phoney looking sucking and fucking " meat and potato" sex clips nobody watches or cares for and/or various extreme clips ( mostly violence by men against women) which may be watched by many but impossible to monetise because NO payment processor will accept such content. If you are relegated to collect money via Gmail ? Good luck to collect enough to make a profit. So what is left? In my opinion AI gives the adult producers the opportunity to create dramatic story driven " films" with many exciting locations, 100's of extras and characters created so believably that the viewer forgets ( albeit he knows) that he is watching AI and gets immersed into the movie as if it was created " the old fashion way. Best explained .. Today you can already make: " Gladiator" but with sex, tits and ass".

For this to succeed however, the AI creators MUST get "in tune" with the producers and realise that one cannot " live" without the other.

I completely agree.

People who think AI is a shortcut to productivity without having any skills will be wildly outperformed by people using AI to amplify their expertise.

[CaptainHowdy]

It will be like . . .

[dirtypornworld]

Originally Posted by celandina

I have deleted ALL your assumptions except ONE, and questions as I believe they will NOT be relevant in 2030.


I believe the geeks living now in mom's basements eating mac and cheese and stimulants ( OK lets call them AI creators), will mature and will become the critical part of an adult industry, just as it is starting in the mainstream already. These AI creators will be only a part ,albeit a critical part, of the industry ( see below business model) BUT they cannot replace the rest of the " production" skills provided by experienced producers; that being, creating the mode of content, executing it to look real, editing it into a dramatic structure, creating quality sound ( including composition or selection of proper music), then mix it all together, master it, promote it........and the MOST important: Being able to sell it AND to make a profit. Without the last part ( PROFIT !!!) AI is nothing but just talk.

Whether it was Bill Gates, Sumner Redstone or even Samuel Goldwyn they were and are still correct:"Content is King", that has not changed. Already the Internet is full of phoney looking sucking and fucking " meat and potato" sex clips nobody watches or cares for and/or various extreme clips ( mostly violence by men against women) which may be watched by many but impossible to monetise because NO payment processor will accept such content. If you are relegated to collect money via Gmail ? Good luck to collect enough to make a profit. So what is left? In my opinion AI gives the adult producers the opportunity to create dramatic story driven " films" with many exciting locations, 100's of extras and characters created so believably that the viewer forgets ( albeit he knows) that he is watching AI and gets immersed into the movie as if it was created " the old fashion way. Best explained .. Today you can already make: " Gladiator" but with sex, tits and ass".

For this to succeed however, the AI creators MUST get "in tune" with the producers and realise that one cannot " live" without the other.

Very true

[cordoba]

Originally Posted by BAKO

Curious where everyone thinks the industry is heading over the next 5 years.

A few things already changing fast:

• AI girlfriends and AI creators
• Telegram/private monetization replacing OF for some creators
• SEO traffic getting harder
• Tube traffic shifting more mobile and short-session
• Mainstream ad restrictions getting tighter
• VR/interactive content slowly growing
• Fewer large affiliates, more automated media buying
• AI generated content flooding tubes and socials

Questions for everyone:

• What business models survive long term?
• Will real creators always outperform AI?
• Will traffic become more expensive or cheaper?
• What ad formats will dominate in 2030?
• Does OnlyFans still lead in 5 years?
• Are tubes becoming entertainment brands instead of porn sites?
• Does Telegram/private communities replace subscription platforms?
• Will AI chat companions become bigger than cams?

Would be interesting to hear opinions from publishers, affiliates, networks, creators, and dirty GFY webmasters that have been in the business for years

Good list, but crazy you didn't mention the fact that virtually every country on Earth is going to absolute war on porn and trying to get the industry effectively closed down. THAT'S the biggest challenge.

For example, already there are lobby groups campaigning to have AI companions banned, and first attempts at legislation: https://www.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/...l_to_felonize/

But yes, if they survive the legislation then AI companions will surely become much bigger than cams. It's only just getting started.

Sites like OnlyFans will have to ensure that the subscriber can trust that the content is real and not AI, which will likely be impossible in the long run.

Smartglasses are taking off really fast, already starting to dwarf VR headset sales. In a couple of years you can have an AI AR girlfriend constantly with you on your glasses.

In five years time (I know it's always in five years time) sex robots might finally be here. Most likely, the home help humanoid robots like Tesla and Figure will start becoming popular in homes and there will be a market for "add ons", including "skins".

[RyuLion]

Most of what you said has already been here. I still go to the conventions, adult and mainstream seminars.

[DemonitizedPorn]

SHIT!

Everything looks like shit and it's all going to get worse. So Porn will NOT be an exception.

1986 gave us Top Gun, Highlander and Platoon. Sports gave us Micheal Jordan and Larry Bird. Music was Aerosmith with Run DMC, Peter Gabrial and Madonna. Porn was Nina Hartley, Ginger Lynn and Christy Canyon.

Today we've got culturally void garbage that barely makes nickles. Hollywood is dead, Hip Hop is +30 years old autotune and sport heroes are taking a knee for politics. Today's porn is an ugly whore with tattoos and a webcam and no idea how to suck dick because she's stoned and on welfare.

So what will porn look like in 2030??

IT WILL LOOK LIKE SHIT!

[CurrentlySober]

Originally Posted by DemonitizedPorn

SHIT!

i lik shit

[celandina]

Very true :

Today we've got culturally void garbage that barely makes nickels. ..........Today's porn is an ugly whore with tattoos and a webcam and no idea how to suck dick because she's stoned and on welfare.