Could Coronavirus be as bad as Spanish Flu?

[Paul Markham]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

The 1918 influenza pandemic (January 1918 – December 1920; colloquially known as Spanish flu) was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic, the first of the two pandemics involving H1N1 influenza virus, with the second being the swine flu in 2009. It infected 500 million people around the world, or about 27% of the then world population of between 1.8 and 1.9 billion, including people on isolated Pacific islands and in the Arctic. The death toll is estimated to have been anywhere from 17 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest epidemics in human history. Historical and epidemiological data are inadequate to identify with certainty the pandemic's geographic origin.

Read more

27% of the world population today is 2 billion people. What would that mean to the world economy, environment, climate change, your family?

Even at half as bad it's very bad.

[CaptainHowdy]

Medicine has evolved . . . haven't you heard, Paul ? ?

[ilnjscb]

It killed 2.5% of the world population. That would be 175,000,000 today. Truly devastating. I very much doubt that will happen, though.

[ilnjscb]

Originally Posted by Paul Markham

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu



27% of the world population today is 2 billion people. What would that mean to the world economy, environment, climate change, your family?

Even at half as bad it's very bad.

Paul, it will kill you though if you get the more lethal strain, so please be careful. I don't mean that to be rude, it is just a fact. The lethal variant appears to cause severe respiratory issues, and leaves even healthy individuals barely functioning while they are symptomatic.

[Rochard]

My mother mentioned the Spanish Flu to me the day, so I read about it... Holy shit.

If you compare Coronavirus to SARS, the difference is staggering. It took six months for SARS to have 9k infections while it took Coronavirus two months to reach 90k. There is ten times more infections with Coronavirus in one third of the time.

[celandina]

SARS death rate was almost 10 %
Covid 19 barely 3 %
Spanish flu about 2.5 %

so Covid 19 and the Spanish flu are comparable....

that is the ONLY statiscti which is relevant

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by CaptainHowdy

Medicine has evolved . . . haven't you heard, Paul ? ?

So has world travel.. . . haven't you heard, captain?

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by celandina

SARS death rate was almost 10 %
Covid 19 barely 3 %
Spanish flu about 2.5 %

so Covid 19 and the Spanish flu are comparable....

that is the ONLY statiscti which is relevant

27% of the population were infected that means they were isolated, hospitalised, out of work, unproductive, etc.

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by ilnjscb

Paul, it will kill you though if you get the more lethal strain, so please be careful. I don't mean that to be rude, it is just a fact. The lethal variant appears to cause severe respiratory issues, and leaves even healthy individuals barely functioning while they are symptomatic.

I know so I'm keeping my contact to low with people outside my family. But I've had a great life and not very productive if you don't count posting on GFY

[CaptainHowdy]

Originally Posted by Paul Markham

So has world travel.. . . haven't you heard, captain?

Tourism should be banned . . .

[Idigmygirls]

Originally Posted by CaptainHowdy

Medicine has evolved . . . haven't you heard, Paul ? ?

This will not help as hospitals around the world are running at nearly 100% capacity right now. If even 1% of the world population needs hospitalization at the same time, that's an additional 75,000,000 hospital beds that would be needed.

20% of cases are considered serious, and many of those need advanced intervention and respirators. Without it, the death rate skyrockets.

So, unless modern medicine has "evolved" to include star trek replicators, I wouldn't count on having any access to anything modern in the medical field. The system is already overloaded, and in countries with outbreaks, it's completely broken down (see China's hastily constructed emergency hospitals and their collapsing infrastructure if you want more proof of that).

[HairyChick]

In the past century they’ve developed vaccines and cures and treatment for many formerly-deadly illnesses.

Doctors weren’t available for everyone back then. Long distance traveling wasn’t something that you could do quickly.

[pornbro666]

i never heard about the Spanish Flu until today and i am very sad now, i hope this corona virus madness stops!

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by CaptainHowdy

Tourism should be banned . . .

Would you go to China, Japan, Italy, South Korea, at the moment? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51625123

[Paul Markham]

Originally Posted by Idigmygirls

This will not help as hospitals around the world are running at nearly 100% capacity right now. If even 1% of the world population needs hospitalization at the same time, that's an additional 75,000,000 hospital beds that would be needed.

20% of cases are considered serious, and many of those need advanced intervention and respirators. Without it, the death rate skyrockets.

So, unless modern medicine has "evolved" to include star trek replicators, I wouldn't count on having any access to anything modern in the medical field. The system is already overloaded, and in countries with outbreaks, it's completely broken down (see China's hastily constructed emergency hospitals and their collapsing infrastructure if you want more proof of that).

We can't afford to build a health system that can cope for an epidemic that happens twice in 100 years.

[Jazzix]

BudWeiserVirus good lord just think of the headache

[Mr Pheer]

Molson Virus, coming soon. Thanks Canada.

[NatalieK]

first, we cannot compare due to the fast active quarantine that has taken place and second, medicines have changed.

Basically, if no one realised what was going on 2 weeks ago, not used hospitals and kept track of where it´s originating, this could have been a different story. Humans have kept this virus underwrap and hopefully we´ll all be ok, in a few months!

[fuzebox]

[ruff]

So far the Corona virus is not too bad, but if it mutates into something nasty, which is possible, we could be fucked. We will see more of this kind of thing in the future.

[AmateurFlix]

Originally Posted by celandina

SARS death rate was almost 10 %
Covid 19 barely 3 %
Spanish flu about 2.5 %

so Covid 19 and the Spanish flu are comparable....

that is the ONLY statiscti which is relevant

epidemiologists might find the rate of transmission and how long it can survive to be of some relevance as well

[Look Chang]

Originally Posted by Jazzix

BudWeiserVirus good lord just think of the headache

Guinness Virus would be the most devastating IMHO

[Grapesoda]

Originally Posted by Paul Markham

27% of the population were infected that means they were isolated, hospitalised, out of work, unproductive, etc.

even battles in WWI were postponed to due sick soldiers

[Grapesoda]

Originally Posted by pornbro666

i never heard about the Spanish Flu until today and i am very sad now, i hope this corona virus madness stops!

it was a pretty big deal, killed more folks than WW1

[AmeliaG]

There are already both multiple vaccines and treatment in trials for COVID-19.

Clickbait media keeps saying it is a big deal, but expert doctors keep saying it is not.

Running around like chickens with your heads cut off is not a good look.

[BaldBastard]

Originally Posted by AmeliaG

There are already both multiple vaccines and treatment in trials for COVID-19.

Clickbait media keeps saying it is a big deal, but expert doctors keep saying it is not.

Running around like chickens with your heads cut off is not a good look.

Other countries have vaccines being tested right now, it still doesn't lower the time to make them in a quantities required any different and even then there is the slight issue of getting that vaccine dispersed, distributed and administrated. The facilities to make enough vaccine for 350 million DO NOT EXIST, I'm sure planning will start in the next few months and once there built and tested, big vats of vaccine can start to be made.. which takes 12-18 months.. gotta have the facilities first though.

yes they will have enough vaccine for the military and politicians in under 5 years, but for us the public don't even dream of it unless you want to order one from China online... after they work out how to make 1.3 billion shots for themselves.

For a more likely scenario look at Sars and Mers, neither of which have vaccines after 15 years.

Developing a universal vaccine against any influenza or Corona has been within our reach for the past 10 years but no country has been willing to invest the money required, those most against are the vaccine makers themselves as there's MUCH more money to be made by applying a yearly bandaid.

The enormity of the task ahead can only be achieved by a multi-nation attack that's directed from one source with a common goal.

[AmeliaG]

Originally Posted by MrBaldBastard

Other countries have vaccines being tested right now, it still doesn't lower the time to make them in a quantities required any different and even then there is the slight issue of getting that vaccine dispersed, distributed and administrated. The facilities to make enough vaccine for 350 million DO NOT EXIST, I'm sure planning will start in the next few months and once there built and tested, big vats of vaccine can start to be made.. which takes 12-18 months.. gotta have the facilities first though.

yes they will have enough vaccine for the military and politicians in under 5 years, but for us the public don't even dream of it unless you want to order one from China online... after they work out how to make 1.3 billion shots for themselves.

For a more likely scenario look at Sars and Mers, neither of which have vaccines after 15 years.

Developing a universal vaccine against any influenza or Corona has been within our reach for the past 10 years but no country has been willing to invest the money required, those most against are the vaccine makers themselves as there's MUCH more money to be made by applying a yearly bandaid.

The enormity of the task ahead can only be achieved by a multi-nation attack that's directed from one source with a common goal.

There are at least two vaccines being tested in the US right now, plus treatment.

SARS and MERS research is being repurposed. The reason it wasn't worthwhile to finish the work on those is because they didn't turn out to be that widespread a big problem.

We don't have a World Dictator, so the idea of directing all measures from one source is happily just ridiculous science fiction fantasy.

When countries are using martial law against their own people, that is not usually a good sign that somebody needs bigger more centralized power.

[BaldBastard]

Originally Posted by AmeliaG

There are at least two vaccines being tested in the US right now, plus treatment.

SARS and MERS research is being repurposed. The reason it wasn't worthwhile to finish the work on those is because they didn't turn out to be that widespread a big problem.

We don't have a World Dictator, so the idea of directing all measures from one source is happily just ridiculous science fiction fantasy.

When countries are using martial law against their own people, that is not usually a good sign that somebody needs bigger more centralized power.

I suggest listening to your foremost experts on the subject

Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases on Fox..
https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyl...-anthony-fauci

Expert panel at Harvard:
https://theforum.sph.harvard.edu/eve...irus-outbreak/

Note neither are touching on the problem of no where to make it, and no system to distribute it yet both say year to a year and a half.. at least, just to cook the brew.

then ponder why Fox has buried the interview video

[Paul Markham]

I hope modern communication will help in keeping it lower than it could be if countries follow strict rules. If it takes hold in Africa, S. America and parts of Asia where controlling anything is a nightmare, then it will get worse.

Medicines for billions isn't a possibility.

The real problem is this is the third major disease to come out of China, when are they going to wake up to the facts that they are doing things wrong. Not sure what things but that's for the professionals to find out.

[Manfap]

Originally Posted by Paul Markham

If it takes hold in Africa, S. America and parts of Asia where controlling anything is a nightmare, then it will get worse.

Don't think Europe will be any different.

Because it leaked to the press that the gov was going to close off 1/4 of Italy, every cunt that could, got a plane and left just before.

They were walking through the airports here in Spain unchecked.

I live in the desert on 5 acres, I quite often go 14 days without leaving here or seeing anyone anyway, so for me not a problem.

If I was in a city flat though, I'd leave before not being able to though.

With your age and poor health, sorry to say, but you're fucked.

[Yanks_Todd]

Originally Posted by celandina

SARS death rate was almost 10 %
Covid 19 barely 3 %
Spanish flu about 2.5 %

so Covid 19 and the Spanish flu are comparable....

that is the ONLY statiscti which is relevant

Not really, the Spanish flu was pre-antibiotic and so a great many of the deaths were caused by secondary post flu infections. Something that is much different now.

[celandina]

Originally Posted by Yanks_Todd

Not really, the Spanish flu was pre-antibiotic and so a great many of the deaths were caused by secondary post flu infections. Something that is much different now.

Both were and are viruses. Antibiotics are useless...Yet idiots take them anyway

[AmeliaG]

Originally Posted by celandina

Both were and are viruses. Antibiotics are useless...Yet idiots take them anyway

Todd is 100% correct that antibiotics are life-saving for secondary infections. Pneumonia ...

[BaldBastard]

antibiotics/ antivirals have the same issue as ventilators, you or any country does not have enough.

[pimpmaster9000]

aw man deals on Airbnb in thai/viet/bali/philippines are getting sweeeeeeeeeet...

[Paul Markham]

Schools, cinemas, sporting events, etc all closed in Czech after this evening. Any public gathering of over 100 people banned. The Czech government is taking hold of the situation.

[BlackCrayon]

Originally Posted by AmeliaG

There are already both multiple vaccines and treatment in trials for COVID-19.

Clickbait media keeps saying it is a big deal, but expert doctors keep saying it is not.

Running around like chickens with your heads cut off is not a good look.

Doctors in Italy and Iran are not saying that. They are saying the rest of the world needs to wake up and that what is going on there now is coming here soon.

[Klen]

Originally Posted by Paul Markham

Schools, cinemas, sporting events, etc all closed in Czech after this evening. Any public gathering of over 100 people banned. The Czech government is taking hold of the situation.

Yep my FB is screaming with cancel notifications of almost every party. Tho, small level parties are still going. I walked now for 3 hours in city and i saw only 2 people with masks, so i guess nobody gives a fuck.

[celandina]

Originally Posted by AmeliaG

Todd is 100% correct that antibiotics are life-saving for secondary infections. Pneumonia ...

As I have said "idiots take them anyway" ..

FYI : Pneumonia caused by Covid 19 is viral pneumonia and therefore antibiotics ( VERY useful for pneumonia caused by Streptococcus Pneumonia) are completely ineffective and will cause Strep resistant strain in case Strep shows up later. This is as basic as 1 + 1...

[pimpmaster9000]

oh man I bet them sweet sweet asian beaches are empty now...

[Yanks_Todd]

Originally Posted by celandina

As I have said "idiots take them anyway" ..

FYI : Pneumonia caused by Covid 19 is viral pneumonia and therefore antibiotics ( VERY useful for pneumonia caused by Streptococcus Pneumonia) are completely ineffective and will cause Strep resistant strain in case Strep shows up later. This is as basic as 1 + 1...

That is still how it differs from the Spanish flu. People with Covid 19 are not dying in mass from secondary issues. I am still correct with what I said.

[AmeliaG]

Originally Posted by celandina

As I have said "idiots take them anyway" ..

FYI : Pneumonia caused by Covid 19 is viral pneumonia and therefore antibiotics ( VERY useful for pneumonia caused by Streptococcus Pneumonia) are completely ineffective and will cause Strep resistant strain in case Strep shows up later. This is as basic as 1 + 1...

Todd is definitely correct. Secondary infections are by definition opportunistic and thus varied.

I assume you do not believe doctors who treat pneumonia are typically idiots, correct?

[celandina]

Originally Posted by AmeliaG

Todd is definitely correct. Secondary infections are by definition opportunistic and thus varied.

I assume you do not believe doctors who treat pneumonia are typically idiots, correct?

Definitley those doctors who would treat a viral pneumonia with antibiotics are idiots. Thank God there are not too many of them. Actually many doctors who for decades overprescribed antibiotics for mostly viral aches and pains are MOSTLY responsible for the rise of superbugs. This will continue when the same idiots will prescribe more antibiotics for viral disease like Covid 19.

This is a quote from the National Institute of Health:

.... if you take an antibiotic when you have a viral infection like the flu, the drug won’t affect the viruses making you sick. Instead, it’ll destroy a wide variety of bacteria in your body, including some of the “good” bacteria that help you digest food, fight infection, and stay healthy. Bacteria that are tough enough to survive the drug will have a chance to grow and quickly multiply. These drug-resistant strains may even spread to other people.

So, I now agree with you, doctors do now own a " patent on smarts", indeed many are idiots who caused superbugs, since most of us cannot get antibiotics unless some idiot prescribes them for shit like an ear infection....

...but hey believe what you want, I am all about " Just the facts mam"

[Grapesoda]

Originally Posted by CaptainHowdy

Medicine has evolved . . . haven't you heard, Paul ? ?

the majority of US medicine is manufactured in India and China... no shipping, no meds

[AmateurFlix]

Originally Posted by Paul Markham

Schools, cinemas, sporting events, etc all closed in Czech after this evening. Any public gathering of over 100 people banned. The Czech government is taking hold of the situation.

Similar things are beginning to happen in my state. Gov't public meetings banned, a major university has closed the campus for the rest of the month, campaign rallies last night were cancelled, etc.

If you wonder why these diseases keep coming from China, here's a good video about that. Long story short, "wet markets" where they buy their food from are unsanitary:

[King Mark]

That video is excellent in breaking it down.

[Klen]

Spain limited public gathering up to 1000 people, CZ limited up to 30 people. Seems i wont have anything to do here lol

[celandina]

Originally Posted by Klen

Spain limited public gathering up to 1000 people, CZ limited up to 30 people. Seems i wont have anything to do here lol

No pivo for us after 20 00 h...

[Klen]

Originally Posted by celandina

No pivo for us after 20 00 h...

They just cancelled party to which i wanted to go, so went to store to buy beers(got lobkowitz ale and bernard jantarovy). They were keep repeating some message on speaker, but as my Czech is still basic only, i only understood " dear visitors....BLA BLA... photography". I wonder is it related to this new policy.

[CaptainHowdy]

Originally Posted by celandina

No pivo for us after 20 00 h...