News Put your predictions down - how many seats to democrats pick up in the House?

[ilnjscb]

Any reasonably well informed person knows that if the House goes Democrat, the Trump presidency is over as we know it.

The reason for this is the party in leadership has a one person advantage on every committee. Therefore, investigations will be opened by vote into everything Trump does, subpoenas will be issued, and all current investigations into the intelligence community will be suspended.

Trump may survive, but his support among the house and senate will be weakened because politicians don't want to lose.

Clinton and Obama survived this happening to them because the media supported them strongly. Trump doesn't have that. In fact, the media will probably be even more down on him if republicans lose the house, now without fear of being wrong again.

The only chance Trump has of continuing as he is occurs if the democrats win less that 24 seats.

My personal prediction is the democrats pick up 34 seats in the House. What do you think?

[crockett]

I havent looked at the races close enough, to make a guess on numbers but looking at all the special elections and being a few red states have been forced to redraw their lines due to illegally gerrymandered districts I think its a safe bet Democrats win tbe House.

Senate will be harder due to the limited amount of vunerable seats.

[onwebcam]

Once the unredacted FISA is released and the true story is revealed.. You would have to be a complete fucking moron to vote for another Democrat ever again..

[Bladewire]

↑↑↑ Another off topic post to derail a thread

[kane]

I think they will win 39 seats. There will be a blue wave but not a blue tsunami.

[Bladewire]

Any reasonably well informed person knows that if the House goes Democrat, the Trump presidency is over as we know it.

The reason for this is the party in leadership has a one person advantage on every committee. Therefore, investigations will be opened by vote into everything Trump does, subpoenas will be issued, and all current investigations into the intelligence community will be suspended.

Trump may survive, but his support among the house and senate will be weakened because politicians don't want to lose.

Clinton and Obama survived this happening to them because the media supported them strongly. Trump doesn't have that. In fact, the media will probably be even more down on him if republicans lose the house, now without fear of being wrong again.

The only chance Trump has of continuing as he is occurs if the democrats win less that 24 seats.

My personal prediction is the democrats pick up 34 seats in the House. What do you think?

I honestly think that with the past & current election meddling it's nearly impossible to guage where things will go.

The vast majority of people are sick of Trump's BS, Democrats won a near record number of the special elections this last year. Ohio this week will be the canary in the coal mine. If the Democrat wins in the county where Trump won by 11 in '16 then we'll take at least 26 seats.

[ilnjscb]

I honestly think that with the past & current election meddling it's nearly impossible to guage where things will go.

The vast majority of people are sick of Trump's BS, Democrats won a near record number of the special elections this last year. Ohio this week will be the canary in the coal mine. If the Democrat wins in the county where Trump won by 11 in '16 then we'll take at least 26 seats.

Well you can be sure once and for all we'll learn this time whether special elections are predictive. They have thus far predicted an insane margin for democrats, but I agree with you the reality will probably revert to mean. I'm putting you down for Democrats win but by a very small margin.

[ilnjscb]

I think they will win 39 seats. There will be a blue wave but not a blue tsunami.

This is strongly possible. 39 is a "convincing" margin.

[ilnjscb]

Once the unredacted FISA is released and the true story is revealed.. You would have to be a complete fucking moron to vote for another Democrat ever again..

I understand there are strong opinions, but this isn't really about that - just a place to predict and discuss the House 2018 races. The cases for and against the two parties have been made elsewhere.

Do you have a prediction?

[ilnjscb]

I havent looked at the races close enough, to make a guess on numbers but looking at all the special elections and being a few red states have been forced to redraw their lines due to illegally gerrymandered districts I think its a safe bet Democrats win tbe House.

Senate will be harder due to the limited amount of vunerable seats.

So you're saying House 225 and senate 49?

[Acepimp]

Maybe one or 2. But since a photo ID will now be required, and Democrats claim that is somehow racist because blacks are too dumb and poor to pay $10 for an ID card, the turnout for the Democrats will be very low.

[Rochard]

I cannot guess the numbers....

It's very obvious the Trump administration has been a complete and utter disaster. He has been in office nearly two years, accomplished nothing, and is now neck deep in a scandal where Trump and his staff is being investigated for treason. He just admitted yesterday on Twitter that his son, his campaign manager, and his personal attorney took a meeting where they planned to violate US campaign laws - and most likely did because no one believes this meeting was about adapting Russian kids. On top of all of this, his policies and the recent tariffs have had a huge impact on his own voters most of whom will vote against anything Republican.

I also think there is a fairly good sized group of swing voters that will vote Democrat because of all of the above.

This is exactly like Nixon and Watergate. I am sure during the time of Watergate there was staunch Republicans who believed in Nixon, and defending him until the very end. We now know exactly what happened during Watergate, and it was really bad. History has judge Nixon and everyone around them, and it surely isn't favorable. It was a dark moment in American history. People fail to remember a lot of what happened during the Watergate investigation. After Nixon was impeached and resigned, the investigation continued. Just because Nixon resigned doesn't mean everyone else who violated the law gets off the hook. I think just under 70 people were indicted, and nearly all of them went to prison if only for a short amount of time.

"Russiagate" is very similar. Dozens of people have been indicted. Manafort, Trump's campaign manager, is currently on trail, obviously guilty, and is going to prison for a long time. Cohen is next. If that isn't bad enough, Mueller seems to be even more interested in the secret Trump Tower meeting where it's become plainly obvious US election law has been broken.

This is incredible to watch. Every week brings more lies and more scandals, and the President has accomplished nothing. Every week the Trump administration digs itself deeper into a hole.

History will judge all of this.

[onwebcam]

I cannot guess the numbers....

It's very obvious the Trump administration has been a complete and utter disaster. He has been in office nearly two years, accomplished nothing, and is now neck deep in a scandal where Trump and his staff is being investigated for treason. He just admitted yesterday on Twitter that his son, his campaign manager, and his personal attorney took a meeting where they planned to violate US campaign laws - and most likely did because no one believes this meeting was about adapting Russian kids. On top of all of this, his policies and the recent tariffs have had a huge impact on his own voters most of whom will vote against anything Republican.

I also think there is a fairly good sized group of swing voters that will vote Democrat because of all of the above.

This is exactly like Nixon and Watergate. I am sure during the time of Watergate there was staunch Republicans who believed in Nixon, and defending him until the very end. We now know exactly what happened during Watergate, and it was really bad. History has judge Nixon and everyone around them, and it surely isn't favorable. It was a dark moment in American history. People fail to remember a lot of what happened during the Watergate investigation. After Nixon was impeached and resigned, the investigation continued. Just because Nixon resigned doesn't mean everyone else who violated the law gets off the hook. I think just under 70 people were indicted, and nearly all of them went to prison if only for a short amount of time.

"Russiagate" is very similar. Dozens of people have been indicted. Manafort, Trump's campaign manager, is currently on trail, obviously guilty, and is going to prison for a long time. Cohen is next. If that isn't bad enough, Mueller seems to be even more interested in the secret Trump Tower meeting where it's become plainly obvious US election law has been broken.

This is incredible to watch. Every week brings more lies and more scandals, and the President has accomplished nothing. Every week the Trump administration digs itself deeper into a hole.

History will judge all of this.

[ilnjscb]

I cannot guess the numbers....

It's very obvious the Trump administration has been a complete and utter disaster. He has been in office nearly two years, accomplished nothing, and is now neck deep in a scandal where Trump and his staff is being investigated for treason. He just admitted yesterday on Twitter that his son, his campaign manager, and his personal attorney took a meeting where they planned to violate US campaign laws - and most likely did because no one believes this meeting was about adapting Russian kids. On top of all of this, his policies and the recent tariffs have had a huge impact on his own voters most of whom will vote against anything Republican.

I also think there is a fairly good sized group of swing voters that will vote Democrat because of all of the above.

This is exactly like Nixon and Watergate. I am sure during the time of Watergate there was staunch Republicans who believed in Nixon, and defending him until the very end. We now know exactly what happened during Watergate, and it was really bad. History has judge Nixon and everyone around them, and it surely isn't favorable. It was a dark moment in American history. People fail to remember a lot of what happened during the Watergate investigation. After Nixon was impeached and resigned, the investigation continued. Just because Nixon resigned doesn't mean everyone else who violated the law gets off the hook. I think just under 70 people were indicted, and nearly all of them went to prison if only for a short amount of time.

"Russiagate" is very similar. Dozens of people have been indicted. Manafort, Trump's campaign manager, is currently on trail, obviously guilty, and is going to prison for a long time. Cohen is next. If that isn't bad enough, Mueller seems to be even more interested in the secret Trump Tower meeting where it's become plainly obvious US election law has been broken.

This is incredible to watch. Every week brings more lies and more scandals, and the President has accomplished nothing. Every week the Trump administration digs itself deeper into a hole.

History will judge all of this.

Sure, sure, but this is a prediction thread. So can you clarify what your prediction is? You sound like you're ready to say the democrats will gain 50+ seats.

[ilnjscb]

That's about the size of it. The one group sees nothing the other sees. Rochard's post above makes a good summary of the beliefs of the anti-Trump camp, and there are people who only see good metrics from the pro-Trump camp.

My question is, how will that translate into votes?

[ilnjscb]

Maybe one or 2. But since a photo ID will now be required, and Democrats claim that is somehow racist because blacks are too dumb and poor to pay $10 for an ID card, the turnout for the Democrats will be very low.

1 or 2? That is the lowest so far. I don't think as many jurisdictions have implemented the above yet as you may think, can you post a link?

[bronco67]

Not nearly as many as could be picked up if Republicans didn't cheat.

[ilnjscb]

Not nearly as many as could be picked up if Republicans didn't cheat.

But what number - the prediction is the important thing. Your political confrere hazarded 39, what do you say?

[Rochard]

Sure, sure, but this is a prediction thread. So can you clarify what your prediction is? You sound like you're ready to say the democrats will gain 50+ seats.

I believe there will be a "blue wave" and they will take over enough seats to regain control.

[Bladewire]

But what number - the prediction is the important thing. Your political confrere hazarded 39, what do you say?

LoL @ confrere

[thommy]

Maybe one or 2. But since a photo ID will now be required, and Democrats claim that is somehow racist because blacks are too dumb and poor to pay $10 for an ID card, the turnout for the Democrats will be very low.

so you think dumbs should not vote ?
will YOU vote ?

[ilnjscb]

so you think dumbs should not vote ?
will YOU vote ?

What is your prediction?

[2MuchMark]

It's sad knowing that there will still be some who vote republican, and some others who won't even vote at all.

[thommy]

What is your prediction?

in regards if he votes?
if he finds the way alone.....

it is really hard to say - but actually trump made the mistake to do the tax cuts too early.
so i think some result of that will be already seen in november (even when it is not much in this year).

i think 30 seats they will win - and that´s more than enough :-)

if the moron makes another big mistake it will be over 40.

[thommy]

It's sad knowing that there will still be some who vote republican, and some others who won't even vote at all.

in the midterms the people do not vote for a president.
there are still some who hate trump but will vote republican because they did it all their life.

i think it will not be such an earthquake as it would be if people would vote for the president. but still enough to give the reps a hard wake up call.

[Rochard]

in the midterms the people do not vote for a president.

This is correct. However, during the midterms the Republican party can lose enough seats in government so that the Democrats will have control, they can start impeachment proceedings, and then remove Trump from office.

[ilnjscb]

This is correct. However, during the midterms the Republican party can lose enough seats in government so that the Democrats will have control, they can start impeachment proceedings, and then remove Trump from office.

You're correct that democrats can impeach Trump (and probably will) if they win the House, but they can only remove him with 67 votes in the Senate, and they will not get that. No president has ever been removed, and he will not be the first.

The result will be the same as it was with Clinton.

However, the House will hold hearings and Trump nemesis Schiff will be in charge of them, so the media will report a steady stream of accusations. In my opinion, in this case, Trump will not resign, but he will not win re-election.

[Rochard]

You're correct that democrats can impeach Trump (and probably will) if they win the House, but they can only remove him with 67 votes in the Senate, and they will not get that. No president has ever been removed, and he will not be the first.

The result will be the same as it was with Clinton.

However, the House will hold hearings and Trump nemesis Schiff will be in charge of them, so the media will report a steady stream of accusations. In my opinion, in this case, Trump will not resign, but he will not win re-election.

Maybe?

I think if the Democrats gain more control a movement to remove Trump would happen, and I think a lot of Republicans will climb on board. Trump doesn't have the support that he thinks he has, and if it gets to the point where they impeach Trump in the House and accuse of Treason or whatever it's possible enough Republicans will vote against him. Right now they fear Trump, and are afraid if they say anything against Trump he will lash out at them but once the train starts leaving the station and they know they can remove him and not fear him any more they might just do it...

Either way he will not be elected again. Eventually the Democrats will return to power, and demand another investigation. All of the truth is going to come out eventually, and anyone in the US government who supported Trump will be properly judged.

[celandina]

They will loose 7 in total....talk to me on Nov 7th

[Bladewire]

They will loose 7 in total....talk to me on Nov 7th

The thread title is "how many seats to democrats pick up in the House?"

[ilnjscb]

They will loose 7 in total....talk to me on Nov 7th

Thanks for the prediction. You're the new low number, -7. That is extremely optimistic for a republican - especially after tonight which saw, at a minimum, an 11 point swing to democrats in Ohio.

Special elections aren't always predictive, but the average so far has been 15% swing. If that holds, the democrats will pick up 55-60 seats.

What you're predicting would be a scenario where all the polls are very wrong - could happen, but, unlikely.

[GAMEFINEST]

A lot, it will be a sexy blue wave

[thommy]

A lot, it will be a sexy blue wave

I am a little bit scared because I found out that trump´s real talent is SEO.
if you type "idiot" in the google picture search .....

see by yourself

right now he is also optimizing on "moron"

[celandina]

The thread title is "how many seats to democrats pick up in the House?"

Correction: They will pick up 0 and loose at least 7 to boot

[onwebcam]

What you're predicting would be a scenario where all the polls are very wrong - could happen, but, unlikely.

[celandina]

Thanks for the prediction. You're the new low number, -7. That is extremely optimistic for a republican - especially after tonight which saw, at a minimum, an 11 point swing to democrats in Ohio.

Special elections aren't always predictive, but the average so far has been 15% swing. If that holds, the democrats will pick up 55-60 seats.

What you're predicting would be a scenario where all the polls are very wrong - could happen, but, unlikely.

Pick up 55 -60 This must be predicted by the same polsters who predicted Hilllary with a big lead 2 years ago. Not too many will vote for the extreme purple haired (or masked) left antifa fringe. But politically correct is they will poll as Democrats. Only idiots publicly support Trump, but privately many more do. They do not give shit about Russia, Syria, Crimea and the rest of the " foreign shit" but all what they care is about jobs.Hitler was elected when nobody expected it, but he gave them jobs. Then just needed a Reichstag fire to cement his rule. See what the equivalent of it will take place prior to 2020.

[thommy]

Correction: They will pick up 0 and loose at least 7 to boot

keep on dreaming

[celandina]

keep on dreaming

Actually it is not my dream, but my nightmare....But since Dems are not capable to rid of the Nancy's, Diane's and other dinosaurs, it is what they deserve. If they pushed Tulsi Gabbard then they have a chance.... and if you need to ask " who?" then you are just as guilty !

[ilnjscb]

Yes, it is all the same pollsters who predicted incorrectly that Clinton would win. But Trump was within a few points, even in their polls.

Dornife and Rassmussen called the race as it was, and even they are giving Trump less than 50% popularity.

The "hidden Trump voter effect" was about 2% in the general election, not enough to overcome a 6% deficit, much less an 11% deficit.

[Bladewire]

Yes, it is all the same pollsters who predicted incorrectly that Clinton would win. But Trump was within a few points, even in their polls.

And now we know the reason was Russia manipulating our election with the help of Republicans, the Trump family and their insiders.

[GFED]

And now we know the reason was Russia manipulating our election with the help of Republicans, the Trump family and their insiders.

Was it the Russians that stole the primary from Bernie Sanders and violently protested at the Trump rallies?

[ilnjscb]

keep on dreaming

538 - a good source of data.

[Bladewire]

Was it the Russians that stole the primary from Bernie Sanders and violently protested at the Trump rallies?

I know I know, you think the Anti Fascist group is your enemy and you think the racist nazis are your friends 🙄

[NYRangers]

Not nearly as many as could be picked up if Republicans didn't cheat.

This is the cry of the eternal loser. Someone who says the same thing when their sports team loses. How the refs, officials, umps or leagues collude against them.

Life goes on either way. Deal with it.

[onwebcam]

538 - a good source of data.

I caught and posted about 538 manipulating their shit right here on GFY way back when.. Within 24-48 hours later Nate admitted he "changed the algo" This was just after the primaries when Hillary didn't get the bump they were hoping for.. He didn't change and algo.. He literally went in and changed the poll results in the past... It was all posted right here...

[OneHungLo]

This is the cry of the eternal loser. Someone who says the same thing when their sports team loses. How the refs, officials, umps or leagues collude against them.

Life goes on either way. Deal with it.

Get ready for an incoming fake nic accusation from bladeliar

[thommy]

Yes, it is all the same pollsters who predicted incorrectly that Clinton would win. But Trump was within a few points, even in their polls.

Dornife and Rassmussen called the race as it was, and even they are giving Trump less than 50% popularity.

The "hidden Trump voter effect" was about 2% in the general election, not enough to overcome a 6% deficit, much less an 11% deficit.

the polls haven´t been wrong at the elections.
fact is that trump did not win the popular vote and the polls could not predict that the russians had a perfect timing with dirt on hillary.

that will not work again because people woke up in the meantime. remember ? they tried the same thing again in france with Macron and used exactly this 48 hours where candidates are not allowed to speak anymore. but they failed - thanks to US where the whole world could see what happens when people loves to be manipulated.

[thommy]

538 - a good source of data.

i am sure you did not even check HOW they calculate this data.

there is nothing they can fake. it is an average of every popular poll in US with a link to each single poll.

just because you guys don´t like what they see there does not mean it is a fake.

nobody have to lie or fake something to see that trump is the most hated US president ever.
hated inside the country and in the rest of the world.

[ilnjscb]

i am sure you did not even check HOW they calculate this data.

there is nothing they can fake. it is an average of every popular poll in US with a link to each single poll.

just because you guys don´t like what they see there does not mean it is a fake.

nobody have to lie or fake something to see that trump is the most hated US president ever.
hated inside the country and in the rest of the world.

I'm not sure what you mean - 538 is a good source of data. Nate Silver clearly does not like Trump, but he seems to want to be fair to him. I'm not skilled enough at stat to evaluate his algorithms, but he does analyze elections well.

He was taken to task over his support for Trump (he gave him 33% chance instead of 3% like NYTimes) and the "statistician" who did so had to apologize.

Do they make mistakes, yes, of course. But overall they're as fair a source as any.

[ilnjscb]

I caught and posted about 538 manipulating their shit right here on GFY way back when.. Within 24-48 hours later Nate admitted he "changed the algo" This was just after the primaries when Hillary didn't get the bump they were hoping for.. He didn't change and algo.. He literally went in and changed the poll results in the past... It was all posted right here...

Who do you prefer? Rasmussen?