Global SARS epidemic reveals that at least 10 per cent of people will die - GoFuckYourself.com

NoCarrier · 04-25-2003, 10:50 AM

Scary new facts about this disease :

Please note that Spanish flu mortality rate was less than 2.5%

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of the latest statistics on the global SARS epidemic reveals that at least 10 per cent of people who contract the new virus will die of the disease.

The low death rates of about four per cent cited until now by the World Health Organization and others are the result of a statistical difficulty, well known to epidemiologists, that hampers the early analysis of new disease outbreaks. This difficulty is the reason for the apparent rise in death rate - not a change in the SARS virus.

A fatality rate of over 10 per cent puts SARS on a par with some other RNA viruses. Yellow fever and Japanese encephalitis, spread by tropical mosquitoes, between them kill more than 10,000 people a year, even though both have vaccines. Lassa fever kills about 70,000 a year in West Africa, but people mainly catch it from a local mouse.

Because these infections need animal vectors that only exist regionally, none has ever gone global. But the SARS vector - humans - is everywhere.

Draconian measures

The emergence of the true deadliness of SARS comes as further draconian measures are implemented by health authorities around the world.

The latest is the quarantining of 4000 people and the complete isolation of two hospitals in Beijing. China, where the virus emerged, has about half the world's known SARS cases, which have now risen to total 274 deaths and over 4800 infections.

The standard figure used to gauge the deadliness of any disease is the "case fatality rate" (CFR). This is the number of deaths divided by the number of cases of the disease.

Early in the SARS epidemic, the CFR was about four per cent. But the CFR calculated from statistics released on Thursday and Friday for Hong Kong, Canada and Singapore are now 7.6, 10.7 and 9.9 per cent respectively. These three places are the worst hit after the Chinese mainland.

The global CFR has risen steadily since the start of the epidemic but this is to be expected, say epidemiologists contacted by New Scientist. Early in an epidemic, a significant proportion of the total number of cases have neither recovered nor died. Some will eventually die and so move from the denominator to the numerator of the CFR, raising its value. The CFR moves towards the true value as time passes, unless the number of new cases explodes.

Better Estimate

With many cases still unresolved, a better current estimate of the deadliness of SARS may be the number of deaths as a proportion of resolved cases. Those numbers for Hong Kong, Canada and Singapore are 15.8, 18.3 and 13.7 per cent. But these too could be misleading if, for example, it takes longer to recover from a disease than to die from it.

In China, this death rate is only 8.8 per cent. But statistics there are widely mistrusted, after Chinese authorities withheld nearly all information until recently. The Chinese statistics may also include cases of pneumonia due to bacterial infections, a widespread problem there, and which are cured with antibiotics.

One way to resolve the uncertainty over the death rate, say epidemiologists, would be to take a "cohort" of cases that start at the same time, and follow them until all have resolved. Several groups, including Roy Anderson and colleagues at Imperial College in London, plan to publish detailed epidemiological analyses shortly.

Uncertainty may dog the exact calculation, but it now seems clear that in the absence of a cure or a vaccine, SARS could eventually kill millions. The best hope is a vaccine. At a high-level meeting last week in Washington DC, every major vaccine company reported that it had begun a research programme.

SleazyDream · 04-25-2003, 11:15 AM

There was absoluty NO checks at the Toronto airport when i left there on Monday. There was woman waiting for a plane in the loby sitting near me (i moved though) that was fevorish and fanning herself. She was sweating like crazy and had a dry cough. The airline didn't even question her. She just got on the plane and went her merry way without any hesitation or even a question from the airline. She was about 15 rows behind me on my plane and I was panicking the whole ride home.
I won't even go out of the house now for 2 weeks - just to be safe.

arial · 04-25-2003, 11:18 AM

I've been sick all week, think I got the SARS?

12clicks · 04-25-2003, 11:19 AM

10% is a good start.

Backov · 04-25-2003, 11:27 AM

I was talking about this the other day - if the CDC and other such agencies don't get this shit under control, this could be nasty.. 10% of 4 billion = 400 million dead.

It's already in China, there's a big percentage of the worlds population right there.

I really don't think it will come to that however.. I'm sure this thing is going to start getting way more money thrown at it than AIDs ever did in the next 6 months-1 year.

sherie · 04-25-2003, 11:28 AM

Gee with all these up dates, I will never have to listen, read or watch the news again...

Can we get a damn roll your eyes smiley here!!!

Nasty D · 04-25-2003, 11:33 AM

10% i like those odds

twinkley · 04-25-2003, 11:54 AM

wait wait wait

it says 10% of people WHO GET SARS will die from it .....

so if only 500 people get SARS, only 50 will die from it ...

Better than the death rate of a lot of other diseases out there....

Not like the media is totally over-hyping it or anything....

twinkley

SleazyDream · 04-25-2003, 11:56 AM

one of the things they DON'T know yet is if you catch SARS can you catch it AGAIN???

if it's a 10% death rate and you can catch it 5-6 times that gets a LOT scarier.

NoCarrier · 04-25-2003, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SleazyDream
one of the things they DON'T know yet is if you catch SARS can you catch it AGAIN???

if it's a 10% death rate and you can catch it 5-6 times that gets a LOT scarier.

People seem to develop an immunity but they aren't sure. The problem is that the virus is mutating like influenza or aids. So what happens when your body gets infected with a mutated and deadlier strain? And a vaccine might be very difficult if not impossible to make. If we are lucky and they do find a vaccine, it's going to take at least 5 years before it's available.

It's not spreading as fast as the flu, but with a 10% mortality rate it is extremely high for a contagious disease.

NoCarrier · 04-25-2003, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SleazyDream
There was absoluty NO checks at the Toronto airport when i left there on Monday. There was woman waiting for a plane in the loby sitting near me (i moved though) that was fevorish and fanning herself. She was sweating like crazy and had a dry cough. The airline didn't even question her. She just got on the plane and went her merry way without any hesitation or even a question from the airline. She was about 15 rows behind me on my plane and I was panicking the whole ride home.
I won't even go out of the house now for 2 weeks - just to be safe.

One of the reason I suspect why the world health organization decided to put Toronto on the black list. They are exporting cases everywhere.

LadyMischief · 04-25-2003, 01:06 PM

Actually, the ONtario SARS "epidemic" is slowing down.. Outside of hospital workers who were instantly quarantined, there have been no new SARS cases in over 17 days. 10 of the cases that were at first thought to be SARS actually turned out to be something else... It's getting better, not worse. Sure, SARS sucks, but scaring the shit out of people isn't going to make things better. You seem like a cool guy, NoCarrier, but you are alittle fucking obsessed with freaking people out with the daily SARS propeganda.

Out of the TENS OF THOUSANDS of people who take airplanes out of Toronto every day, HOW many people have actually contacted the disease? The vast majority of the people who got the disease were healthcare workers who were directly involved in taking care of SARS patients, etc. They know the risk they take in their occupation. I mean, c'mon. Is there a real point to this? Paranoia is rampant, but until everything is backed up by solid facts, all this conjecture and carrying on about it isn't going to do anyone any good.

LadyMischief · 04-25-2003, 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by twinkley
wait wait wait

it says 10% of people WHO GET SARS will die from it .....

so if only 500 people get SARS, only 50 will die from it ...

Better than the death rate of a lot of other diseases out there....

Not like the media is totally over-hyping it or anything....

twinkley

LadyMischief · 04-25-2003, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by NoCarrier

People seem to develop an immunity but they aren't sure. The problem is that the virus is mutating like influenza or aids. So what happens when your body gets infected with a mutated and deadlier strain? And a vaccine might be very difficult if not impossible to make. If we are lucky and they do find a vaccine, it's going to take at least 5 years before it's available.

It's not spreading as fast as the flu, but with a 10% mortality rate it is extremely high for a contagious disease.

You keep talking like someone who knows a hell of a lot, but do you know exactly how they make an antivirulant? Do you know WHY viruses mutate like they do? Can you tell me why the fact that it's a coronavirus is significant? How about the difference between a Viral antigen and a bacterial antigen? I can only name one other person off the top of my head that has actually STUDIED this shit enough to make pronouncements about it, and that's quiet. Myself, I've spent over 10 years of my life studying microbiology/immunology/genetics, etc, so yes, I could sit down and explain it all to you in dizzying detail. But the way you're babbling on about it, it's pretty obvious you HAVEN'T done the reseach, don't know how these diseases actually work, and are spouting off the same stuff you're reading elsewhere.

A 10% mortality rate for a contageous disease high? Not, that's actually somewhere close to average.. It also depend on other factors, such as age of the victim,other illnesses, medications that can repress the immune system, diet of the victim, there are a million factors involved in each individual case. The majority of the people who have died from SARS either a) had other major illnesses either recently, or had some health problems that contributed to immological weaknesses or b) were elderly etc. Have you actually taken a cross-section of the population, then compared that to the mortality statistics of SARS? Probably not. I don't see you doing so anytime soon.

As I said, SARS sucks, dealt with it. I currently now have family in quarantine again in Toronto. My daugher is fine now. Is it worth locking yourself up in your home over? Well no, unless you're actually in an environment with a high risk of infection, such as an airport or a hospital, you really don't have to worry. Hell, what about the hantavirus "epidemic" a few years back. And what about the staff infections and pneumonia people get from hospitals all the time? Bah. I've said my piece. I'll let it lie at that..

NoCarrier · 04-25-2003, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by LadyMischief
You seem like a cool guy, NoCarrier, but you are alittle fucking obsessed with freaking people out with the daily SARS propeganda.

Yeah.. you're right. It's not that bad. It's just a dumb virus. And the media is creating a monster out of it just because the war ended too early.

Another thing, this forum is called "Fucking Around & Program Discussion". If I want to post a thread and discuss about SARS and post articles it's my fucking right. If you think I want to scare people it's your right also. Don't like my threads? You are free not to read them you know. Or you can still post and bitch about them. Like I said, I don't give a fuck. I'll still create new ones.

Cheers.

Serge_Oprano · 04-25-2003, 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SleazyDream
There was absoluty NO checks at the Toronto airport when i left there on Monday. There was woman waiting for a plane in the loby sitting near me (i moved though) that was fevorish and fanning herself. She was sweating like crazy and had a dry cough. The airline didn't even question her. She just got on the plane and went her merry way without any hesitation or even a question from the airline. She was about 15 rows behind me on my plane and I was panicking the whole ride home.
I won't even go out of the house now for 2 weeks - just to be safe.

iof you die,
I'll remember you with a good word or two...
swoitanly!

LadyMischief · 04-25-2003, 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by NoCarrier

Yeah.. you're right. It's not that bad. It's just a dumb virus. And the media is creating a monster out of it just because the war ended too early.

Another thing, this forum is called "Fucking Around & Program Discussion". If I want to post thread and discuss about SARS and post articles it's my fucking right. If you think I want to scare people it's your right also. Don't like my threads? You are free not to read them you know. Or you can still post and bitch about them. Like I said, I don't give a fuck. I'll still create new ones.

Cheers.

Yes, but remember where you are. And i'm not trying to downplay SARS, I got up close and personal with it.. Scary as SHIT. I still think all the hype is WAY overdone though. I'm personally wondering why other "epidemics" haven't been glorified so much.. is it the disease? Or perhaps a new trend in the media. I'm thinking the second option, because honestly, on a worldwide scale, SARS is NOTHING. More children die at the hands of their parents every hour worldwide than people have died from SARS for an entire YEAR. Think about that? Everyone is making a huge fuss about it, and yes it's serious, but is it as serious as what's happening right outside your door? You decide.

Serge_Oprano · 04-25-2003, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by SleazyDream
one of the things they DON'T know yet is if you catch SARS can you catch it AGAIN???

if it's a 10% death rate and you can catch it 5-6 times that gets a LOT scarier.

I can trade you 2 SARS for 3 Breast Cancers!

Fletch XXX · 04-25-2003, 01:27 PM

fear is a good thing.

oh wait, i mean beer is a good thing.

Carrie · 04-25-2003, 01:32 PM

Creating a vaccine for this is going to be pretty damn hard, considering it's based off of the corona virus (same thing the common cold is based off of) and they've never been able to "cure" the common cold.

And anyone who thinks a 10% mortality rate is "average" or "acceptable" needs to have their head examined. These aren't numbers, they're people. If your daughter was one of those who died, would it still be "acceptable"?

Didn't think so.

sherie · 04-25-2003, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Fletch XXX
fear is a good thing.

oh wait, i mean beer is a good thing.

I'll drink to that

And LM just a quick question. I heard and it's been said that the major concern was because young healthy people were dying of SARS, what do you think about that?? You said the sick or elderly, but I heard the opposite.

kmanrox · 04-25-2003, 01:36 PM

pls dont forget in comparison that Malaria still kills 10,000+ people per diem....

dirtyone · 04-25-2003, 03:36 PM

More room for me.

04-25-2003, 10:50 AM	#1
NoCarrier We need more free porn Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Montreal Posts: 16,356	Global SARS epidemic reveals that at least 10 per cent of people will die Scary new facts about this disease : Please note that Spanish flu mortality rate was less than 2.5% --------------------------------------------------------------------- Analysis of the latest statistics on the global SARS epidemic reveals that at least 10 per cent of people who contract the new virus will die of the disease. The low death rates of about four per cent cited until now by the World Health Organization and others are the result of a statistical difficulty, well known to epidemiologists, that hampers the early analysis of new disease outbreaks. This difficulty is the reason for the apparent rise in death rate - not a change in the SARS virus. A fatality rate of over 10 per cent puts SARS on a par with some other RNA viruses. Yellow fever and Japanese encephalitis, spread by tropical mosquitoes, between them kill more than 10,000 people a year, even though both have vaccines. Lassa fever kills about 70,000 a year in West Africa, but people mainly catch it from a local mouse. Because these infections need animal vectors that only exist regionally, none has ever gone global. But the SARS vector - humans - is everywhere. Draconian measures The emergence of the true deadliness of SARS comes as further draconian measures are implemented by health authorities around the world. The latest is the quarantining of 4000 people and the complete isolation of two hospitals in Beijing. China, where the virus emerged, has about half the world's known SARS cases, which have now risen to total 274 deaths and over 4800 infections. The standard figure used to gauge the deadliness of any disease is the "case fatality rate" (CFR). This is the number of deaths divided by the number of cases of the disease. Early in the SARS epidemic, the CFR was about four per cent. But the CFR calculated from statistics released on Thursday and Friday for Hong Kong, Canada and Singapore are now 7.6, 10.7 and 9.9 per cent respectively. These three places are the worst hit after the Chinese mainland. The global CFR has risen steadily since the start of the epidemic but this is to be expected, say epidemiologists contacted by New Scientist. Early in an epidemic, a significant proportion of the total number of cases have neither recovered nor died. Some will eventually die and so move from the denominator to the numerator of the CFR, raising its value. The CFR moves towards the true value as time passes, unless the number of new cases explodes. Better Estimate With many cases still unresolved, a better current estimate of the deadliness of SARS may be the number of deaths as a proportion of resolved cases. Those numbers for Hong Kong, Canada and Singapore are 15.8, 18.3 and 13.7 per cent. But these too could be misleading if, for example, it takes longer to recover from a disease than to die from it. In China, this death rate is only 8.8 per cent. But statistics there are widely mistrusted, after Chinese authorities withheld nearly all information until recently. The Chinese statistics may also include cases of pneumonia due to bacterial infections, a widespread problem there, and which are cured with antibiotics. One way to resolve the uncertainty over the death rate, say epidemiologists, would be to take a "cohort" of cases that start at the same time, and follow them until all have resolved. Several groups, including Roy Anderson and colleagues at Imperial College in London, plan to publish detailed epidemiological analyses shortly. Uncertainty may dog the exact calculation, but it now seems clear that in the absence of a cure or a vaccine, SARS could eventually kill millions. The best hope is a vaccine. At a high-level meeting last week in Washington DC, every major vaccine company reported that it had begun a research programme. __________________

04-25-2003, 11:15 AM	#2
SleazyDream I'm here for SPORT Industry Role: Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Phone # (401) 285-0696 Posts: 41,470	There was absoluty NO checks at the Toronto airport when i left there on Monday. There was woman waiting for a plane in the loby sitting near me (i moved though) that was fevorish and fanning herself. She was sweating like crazy and had a dry cough. The airline didn't even question her. She just got on the plane and went her merry way without any hesitation or even a question from the airline. She was about 15 rows behind me on my plane and I was panicking the whole ride home. I won't even go out of the house now for 2 weeks - just to be safe. __________________ This dog, is dog, a dog, good dog, way dog, to dog, keep dog, an dog, idiot dog, busy dog, for dog, 20 dog, seconds dog! Now read without the word dog.

04-25-2003, 11:19 AM	#4
12clicks Too lazy to set a custom title Industry Role: Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: God's right hand Posts: 19,789	10% is a good start. __________________ I'm not a dinosaur, I'm a crocodile. I've seen dinosaurs come and go and I'm left unimpressed.

04-25-2003, 11:27 AM	#5
Backov Confirmed User Join Date: Mar 2001 Location: Cat Detector Van Posts: 1,600	I was talking about this the other day - if the CDC and other such agencies don't get this shit under control, this could be nasty.. 10% of 4 billion = 400 million dead. It's already in China, there's a big percentage of the worlds population right there. I really don't think it will come to that however.. I'm sure this thing is going to start getting way more money thrown at it than AIDs ever did in the next 6 months-1 year. __________________ <embed src="http://banners.spotbrokers.com/button.swf" FlashVars="clickURL=http://banners.spotbrokers.com" quality=high pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="120" height="60"></embed>

04-25-2003, 11:28 AM	#6
sherie Confirmed User Join Date: Feb 2002 Posts: 7,020	Gee with all these up dates, I will never have to listen, read or watch the news again... Can we get a damn roll your eyes smiley here!!! __________________ AIM sherierocks ICQ 127-296-286 Skype traffichor

04-25-2003, 11:18 AM	#3
arial Confirmed User Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Bay Area Posts: 4,012	I've been sick all week, think I got the SARS?

04-25-2003, 11:33 AM	#7
Nasty D Confirmed User Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: P-Town Posts: 2,563	10% i like those odds __________________ Pimp Mandy Mayhem, Tabatha Sweet, Kristi Montana and Lexy Lohan @ Hawt Money

04-25-2003, 11:54 AM	#8
twinkley Confirmed User Industry Role: Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: Pueblo, CO Posts: 807	wait wait wait it says 10% of people WHO GET SARS will die from it ..... so if only 500 people get SARS, only 50 will die from it ... Better than the death rate of a lot of other diseases out there.... Not like the media is totally over-hyping it or anything.... twinkley

04-25-2003, 11:56 AM	#9
SleazyDream I'm here for SPORT Industry Role: Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: Phone # (401) 285-0696 Posts: 41,470	one of the things they DON'T know yet is if you catch SARS can you catch it AGAIN??? if it's a 10% death rate and you can catch it 5-6 times that gets a LOT scarier. __________________ This dog, is dog, a dog, good dog, way dog, to dog, keep dog, an dog, idiot dog, busy dog, for dog, 20 dog, seconds dog! Now read without the word dog.

04-25-2003, 01:06 PM	#12
LadyMischief Orgasms N Such! Industry Role: Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Oakville, Ontario Posts: 18,135	Actually, the ONtario SARS "epidemic" is slowing down.. Outside of hospital workers who were instantly quarantined, there have been no new SARS cases in over 17 days. 10 of the cases that were at first thought to be SARS actually turned out to be something else... It's getting better, not worse. Sure, SARS sucks, but scaring the shit out of people isn't going to make things better. You seem like a cool guy, NoCarrier, but you are alittle fucking obsessed with freaking people out with the daily SARS propeganda. Out of the TENS OF THOUSANDS of people who take airplanes out of Toronto every day, HOW many people have actually contacted the disease? The vast majority of the people who got the disease were healthcare workers who were directly involved in taking care of SARS patients, etc. They know the risk they take in their occupation. I mean, c'mon. Is there a real point to this? Paranoia is rampant, but until everything is backed up by solid facts, all this conjecture and carrying on about it isn't going to do anyone any good. __________________ ICQ 3522039 Content Manager - orgasm.com [email protected]

04-25-2003, 01:27 PM	#19
Fletch XXX GFY HALL OF FAME DAMMIT!!! Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: that 504 Posts: 60,840	fear is a good thing. oh wait, i mean beer is a good thing. __________________ Want an Android App for your tube, membership, or free site? Need banners or promo material? Hit us up (ICQ Fletch: 148841377) or email me fletchxxx at gmail.com - recent work - About me

04-25-2003, 01:32 PM	#20
Carrie Confirmed User Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Virgin - nee Posts: 3,162	Creating a vaccine for this is going to be pretty damn hard, considering it's based off of the corona virus (same thing the common cold is based off of) and they've never been able to "cure" the common cold. And anyone who thinks a 10% mortality rate is "average" or "acceptable" needs to have their head examined. These aren't numbers, they're people. If your daughter was one of those who died, would it still be "acceptable"? Didn't think so.

04-25-2003, 01:36 PM	#22
kmanrox aka K-Man Industry Role: Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: The Gutter Posts: 29,292	pls dont forget in comparison that Malaria still kills 10,000+ people per diem....

04-25-2003, 03:36 PM	#23
dirtyone Confirmed User Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: God's Country (Georgia) Posts: 3,706	More room for me.