FP: "All fossil-fuel vehicles will vanish in 8 years in twin ?death spiral?"

[2MuchMark]

Woohoo! Go fuck yourself, Oil!

All fossil-fuel vehicles will vanish in 8 years in twin â??death spiralâ?? for big oil and big autos, says study thatâ??s shocking the industries | Financial Post

And go fuck yourselves, fake climate-denying politicians who lie to you just to keep oil money stuffing their pockets.

No more petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will be sold anywhere in the world within eight years. The entire market for land transport will switch to electrification, leading to a collapse of oil prices and the demise of the petroleum industry as we have known it for a century.

This is the futuristic forecast by Stanford University economist Tony Seba. His report, with the deceptively bland title Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, has gone viral in green circles and is causing spasms of anxiety in the established industries.

We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history
Seba?s premise is that people will stop driving altogether. They will switch en masse to self-drive electric vehicles (EVs) that are ten times cheaper to run than fossil-based cars, with a near-zero marginal cost of fuel and an expected lifespan of 1 million miles.

Only nostalgics will cling to the old habit of car ownership. The rest will adapt to vehicles on demand. It will become harder to find a petrol station, spares, or anybody to fix the 2,000 moving parts that bedevil the internal combustion engine. Dealers will disappear by 2024.

Cities will ban human drivers once the data confirms how dangerous they can be behind a wheel. This will spread to suburbs, and then beyond. There will be a ?mass stranding of existing vehicles?. The value of second-hard cars will plunge. You will have to pay to dispose of your old vehicle.

The long-term price of crude will fall to US$25 a barrel. Most forms of shale and deep-water drilling will no longer be viable. Assets will be stranded. Scotland will forfeit any North Sea bonanza. Russia, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Venezuela will be in trouble.

It is an existential threat to Ford, General Motors, and the German car industry. They will face a choice between manufacturing EVs in a brutal low-profit market, or reinventing themselves a self-drive service companies, variants of Uber and Lyft.

They are in the wrong business. The next generation of cars will be ?computers on wheels?. Google, Apple, and Foxconn have the disruptive edge, and are going in for the kill. Silicon Valley is where the auto action is, not Detroit, Wolfsburg, or Toyota City.

The shift, according to Seba, is driven by technology, not climate policies. Market forces are bringing it about with a speed and ferocity that governments could never hope to achieve.

?We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history,? Prof Seba said. ?Internal combustion engine vehicles will enter a vicious cycle of increasing costs.?

The ?tipping point? will arrive over the next two to three years as EV battery ranges surpass 200 miles and electric car prices in the US drop to $30,000. By 2022 the low-end models will be down to $20,000. After that, the avalanche will sweep all before it.

?What the cost curve says is that by 2025 all new vehicles will be electric, all new buses, all new cars, all new tractors, all new vans, anything that moves on wheels will be electric, globally,? Prof Seba said.

Read the rest at All fossil-fuel vehicles will vanish in 8 years in twin â??death spiralâ?? for big oil and big autos, says study thatâ??s shocking the industries | Financial Post

[seeandsee]

i guess rest of world in 3rd countries will continue with fosil

[crockett]

It will happen, but I think it will take longer than 8 years. There will be a "peak gas" so to speak not due to limited supply but because so many people will be driving electric that the price for fuel will keep climbing due to limited market.

The problem as to why I don't think it will happen so soon, is there is still a shitload of oil out there, countries like Saudi Arabia and the other oil giants will end up dumping their reserves trying to get as much money out as they can. This will drive the price low for a short time come back..

IMO at the earliest is 10 years out but my guess is the 15-20 year range..

I've been researching DIY electric cars.. Now that people are successfully building their own telsa style battery packs, the DIY electric car community is really taking off.

[Barry-xlovecam]

For short distance use this may be so. However, I am still a believer in Hydrogen fuel cells https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_cell_vehicle

The problem to be resolved is an efficient way to produce the Hydrogen fuel. This is done efficiently in Iceland with geothermal power. Hydroelectric would be another way. Nuclear power might be another, albeit more hazardous way.

Bottom line you could refuel a Fuel Cell vehicle in 5 minutes. Having to be close to a power cord is very limiting -- to urban high-density areas with short travel distances.

[BaldBastard]

Once self driving is fully worked out

Price will be the driving force.

https://www.alibaba.com/showroom/mini-electric-car.html

buy one now

[crockett]

Originally Posted by Barry-xlovecam

For short distance use this may be so. However, I am still a believer in Hydrogen fuel cells https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_cell_vehicle

The problem to be resolved is an efficient way to produce the Hydrogen fuel. This is done efficiently in Iceland with geothermal power. Hydroelectric would be another way. Nuclear power might be another, albeit more hazardous way.

Bottom line you could refuel a Fuel Cell vehicle in 5 minutes. Having to be close to a power cord is very limiting -- to urban high-density areas with short travel distances.

There is a company just a few days ago that claims they can make EV batteries that can be charged in 5 mins. EV cars already have the distance issue sorted out for passenger cars and it keeps getting better.

They will solve the fast charge issue before hydrogen would become a thing.

[mineistaken]

If there is super trusted escrow I could bet (and leverage) hundreds of thousands on this wager (against the prediction, of course).

But lets cheer with OP and believe it