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Old 04-16-2003, 07:55 PM   #1
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Toronto's SARS outbreak may be on verge of breaking out of control: experts

TORONTO (CP) - The SARS outbreak that has crippled Toronto's health-care system may be on the verge of breaking out, in an uncontrolled fashion, into the community at large, infectious disease experts warned Wednesday.

While public health officials leading the fight against SARS warned only that the battle has reached a critical stage, the doctors who advise them were ready to spell out the threat in more graphic and frightening terms. The disease has travelled so far from the original cluster of infection - one expert estimates the city is on the fifth generation of cases - that the risk is mounting daily that people will go undiagnosed and will spread SARS in the community, sparking what are called sporadic cases that experts can't trace.

"That's exactly the concern," said Dr. Andrew Simor, head of microbiology at Sunnybrook and Women's College Hospital and a key member of the provincial containment team.

"We're not at that point today and hopefully we will not be, but that is the threat. That is the risk."

And a very real one at that, said Simor, who answered this way when asked if the Toronto outbreak can be brought under control:

"I think it is still possible but I am less optimistic today than I was a week ago."

Already, officials have admitted that several people who were eventually diagnosed with SARS were turned away from hospitals when they sought help because they didn't fit the profile used to make the difficult distinction between an emerging case of SARS and a garden-variety respiratory ailment.

Health-care professionals had been looking for people who had recently returned from Southeast Asia, people who had contact with a SARS patient or people who had been at one of two hospitals where uncontained outbreaks occurred. Later, people who had attended an April 3 wake for a man who died of SARS were added to the list.

With word earlier this week that at least 30 members of a Catholic church group had become infected - and that several were turned away from hospitals because they didn't fit the SARS profile - those trying to contain the spread of the disease realized the profile is no longer a tool hospitals can rely on to identify incoming SARS patients.

The number of probable and suspect cases in Ontario rose by five to 249 Wednesday. A week earlier, the tally had been 195, the week before that 129. Canadian numbers topped 300 for the first time Wednesday, with 303 probable and suspect cases reported.

The experts insist there is no evidence yet of sporadic cases in Toronto, but admit the city may be poised on the knife's edge.

"If we're extraordinarily lucky and can continue to mobilize forces in Ontario and can, over the next literally days add the resources that public health needs to maintain the fight in Ontario, we may still have a chance to control it," said Dr. Allison McGeer, a leading infectious disease expert who is herself in hospital recovering from SARS.

"But it's going to take another infusion of an astounding amount of effort to do that."

She believes the small army that has been working 20-hour days for the past five weeks needs a huge wave of new recruits.

"Tripling? Maybe. Quadrupling? In my view, we're talking about calling in every public health resource that we can muster to move far enough ahead of this to stop it," said McGeer, who continues to work from her sick bed via phone and Internet links. McGeer is head of infection control at Toronto's Mount Sinai Hospital.

One only need look to Hong Kong to get a mental picture of what an out-of-control SARS outbreak looks like. Governments around the world have urged their citizens not to travel to Hong Kong and tourism has plummeted. Shopping malls are empty. Hospitals are paralysed because so many health-care workers are sick. The case count increases, in double-digit fashion, daily. And the death toll has reached 61.

"If we start to see true community spread of SARS in Toronto, the initial implications of that are going to be a major hit to tourism," McGeer predicted. "The movies (production crews) won't come. The major conventions will pull out.

"People are very, very frightened of this and it's going to get worse. And you can imagine situations in which people will not only not want to do business with people from Toronto, but they won't want to accept shipments of widgets from people in Toronto."

At a SARS briefing Wednesday, provincial officials took a slightly less ominous approach, while still trying to drive home the message that people need to take public health instructions seriously. The arrival of Easter and Passover, and their many religious services and family gatherings, poses real challenges for efforts to contain SARS, they admitted.

"We're at a point where the critical thing that we have to do is get the co-operation of the community, even though it's a longer period of time and they're growing tired of doing this," said Dr. James Young, Ontario's commissioner of public security.

"We're at a weekend where traditionally there is a lot of activity. People are meeting. They're socializing. So that means we've got a whole lot of risk factors coming together at once and we've got a message that isn't very popular for any of us.

"We're asking a lot of people. But we're saying to them that we wouldn't be asking it if we didn't think this was the right message and a critical time."

The message is, by most measures, an extraordinary one, as Young himself readily admitted.

Anyone in Toronto who feels unwell - with headaches or muscle aches, malaise, a cough - is urged to stay home and isolate themselves from their family until they feel better. If they develop a fever, they are urged to call the province's Telehealth line and ask for instructions.

"We're asking for a level of people staying home that is quite unprecedented but very important," Young said.

Young even admitted the province is looking at whether it can use electronic tracking devices to enforce quarantine orders issued against people who've been told to isolate themselves but who refuse to comply.

The containment team is also asking employers to be lenient when employees call in sick, saying it's better to lose one employee for a few days than to have a whole shop, office or factory forced into quarantine for 10 days.

McGeer suggested employers who don't normally offer sick leave benefits to workers should do it for the duration of the outbreak. The initial expense may be peanuts in comparison to the cost of what would happen if a person with SARS showed up for work sick because he or she couldn't afford to stay home, she said.

"If we invest in it now, if we say, for the next two months: 'If public health puts you on quarantine, I will pay you your hours,' we'll get it back," said McGeer.

"And if we don't do that, we stand to lose the city."
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Old 04-16-2003, 07:57 PM   #2
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I have to drive through toronto in early may, I think i will keep the windows up and fly through at 160
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Old 04-16-2003, 08:21 PM   #3
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from the amount of posts nocarrier has made against the toronto convention I'd say he has some sort of grudge against some of the people who are throwing it.
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Old 04-16-2003, 08:27 PM   #4
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from the amount of posts nocarrier has made against the toronto convention I'd say he has some sort of grudge against some of the people who are throwing it.
Absolutely not. I don't know anyone personally. I hope everything is going to be fine and that the convention will be a success. If the city involved was Montreal or Vanouver, i'd still post them. I didn't even think about the convention. Maybe you do have something against it.
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Old 04-16-2003, 08:36 PM   #5
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meh we are fucked, enjoy life while we are still living.
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Old 04-16-2003, 08:52 PM   #6
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There's around 120 people who have died of SARS in the last month, the average number of people who die per month from the flu would probably be around that figure too..
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Old 04-16-2003, 08:56 PM   #7
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from the amount of posts nocarrier has made against the toronto convention I'd say he has some sort of grudge against some of the people who are throwing it.
I'd have to agree it seems that way too. I live in Toronto and personally have not heard much of any problems, and I talk to medical personal pretty much daily through being dog owners.

"We're not at that point today and hopefully we will not be, but that is the threat. That is the risk."

That quote from the article pretty much is obvious. If anything gets to an uncontrolled point, it's a threat, NO SHIT.

Why haven't you posted things about SARS in general if you're so concerned? Like how it only has killed the very young or elderly, like how the flu can.

I personally feel SARS has been the alter-war media topic.

Cheers,
Matt
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Old 04-16-2003, 09:01 PM   #8
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Absolutely not. I don't know anyone personally. I hope everything is going to be fine and that the convention will be a success. If the city involved was Montreal or Vanouver, i'd still post them. I didn't even think about the convention. Maybe you do have something against it.

yeah - right. I believe that - REALLY I do...

got any bridges you want to sell me?
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Old 04-16-2003, 09:38 PM   #9
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I'm staying home, NoCarrier convinced me.
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Old 04-16-2003, 09:41 PM   #10
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Wow... I am supposed to go to Toronto early in May...
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Old 04-16-2003, 09:50 PM   #11
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Originally posted by NoCarrier
Absolutely not. I don't know anyone personally. I hope everything is going to be fine and that the convention will be a success. If the city involved was Montreal or Vanouver, i'd still post them. I didn't even think about the convention. Maybe you do have something against it.
Unfortunately, that doesn't appear to be the perception. You seem to want to dig out every Toronto-SARS-related article and post it here...this particular article is pretty extreme...and you have chosen to post it on the eve of the Toronto get-together.

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Old 04-16-2003, 10:03 PM   #12
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Why haven't you posted things about SARS in general if you're so concerned? Like how it only has killed the very young or elderly, like how the flu can.
In China and Hong Kong they think they're discovering mutating and more deadly strains, and SARS killed its youngest healthy adult victim (a 32 year old woman) the other day.

I have friends who live and work in HK and they tell me that it is a BIG FUCKING DEAL.
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Old 04-16-2003, 10:43 PM   #13
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I'm glad I'm going to the Webmaster Summit this weekend...

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Old 04-16-2003, 10:49 PM   #14
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Could SARS be an intentional plague from terrorists? Coincidental timing I suppose.
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Old 04-16-2003, 10:54 PM   #15
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"With its limited exposure and 4 percent fatality rate, SARS lies somewhere between rubella and a NASCAR crash on my list of death fears."
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Old 04-16-2003, 10:59 PM   #16
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Old 04-16-2003, 11:01 PM   #17
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It's times like this I love living in Australia, the world's largest island.

We close the front gates and watch the rest of the world die.

Have fun with SARS!

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Old 04-16-2003, 11:07 PM   #18
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Old 04-16-2003, 11:09 PM   #19
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CNN news flash - several adult webmasters, seem to be thinking themselves to be budding newsanchors

some people here seems to think that we don't watch the news or read newspapers, I read the headlines, I watch them on TV, and see the GFY is a wasteland of the same thing

honestly I don't mind a little local opinion, some interesting stories, that one might not see every day, but this isn't time magazine here folks...

instead, why no post a link to the story, and ask people their opinion

ie; what do you think of the latest sars outbreak?
and a link to the story,
instead of pretending to be a newspaper or something and re posting what half of the people have already read
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Old 04-17-2003, 01:53 AM   #20
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With its limited exposure and 4 percent fatality rate, SARS lies somewhere between rubella and a NASCAR crash on my list of death fears."
The rate is up to 5.1 percent and climbimg.

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Old 04-17-2003, 02:04 AM   #21
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blah blah blah, sars this, sars that. fuck sars.
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Old 04-17-2003, 06:22 AM   #22
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from the amount of posts nocarrier has made against the toronto convention I'd say he has some sort of grudge against some of the people who are throwing it.
You are right on Sleazy.....looks like noCarrier has an axe to grind ! Despite the denials to the contrary. I will see you there !
and noCarrier Greetings from TORONTO
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Old 04-17-2003, 06:33 AM   #23
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There's around 120 people who have died of SARS in the last month, the average number of people who die per month from the flu would probably be around that figure too..
Hundreds of thousands of peope die of the flu and complications from the flu every year. If you believe the highest media reported death rate for SARS (5.1%), the flu is twice as deadly and much more contagious.
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Old 04-17-2003, 06:36 AM   #24
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You are right on Sleazy.....looks like noCarrier has an axe to grind ! Despite the denials to the contrary. I will see you there !
and noCarrier Greetings from TORONTO
Yeah I also have something against Hong Kong, I didn't like a girl there, that's why I posted a lot of messages about the SARS in China.

Pleeeease..
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Old 04-17-2003, 07:43 AM   #25
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taken from the who site, it ain´t all that bad ...

"?Today, the collaboration continues as top laboratory researchers have come to WHO to design the next steps, a strategy for transforming these basic research discoveries into diagnostic tools which will help us to successfully control this disease,? said Heymann. ?Now we can move away from methods like isolation and quarantines and move aggressively towards modern intervention strategies including specific treatments and eventually vaccination. With the establishment of the causative agent, we are a crucial step closer.?
"
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Old 04-17-2003, 07:58 AM   #26
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Old 04-17-2003, 08:24 AM   #27
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actually, a few of my friends are doctors right here in Toronto, and things are looking fine...they are going to start enforcing the quarrantine rule...and make you stay at a hospital, no more at home stuff.

people make me laugh, especially the ones wearing the face masks...lol

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Old 04-17-2003, 08:33 AM   #28
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I was at the Raptor game on Tuesday with 20,000 other people and I am still alive.

I am killing this virus with alcohol!

DH
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Old 04-17-2003, 08:42 AM   #29
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I am leaving Montreal around 1:00 p.m. .............with the speed Micheal from Gamma drives.......... We should be there by around 5:00 p.m.

See you in Toronto for the Webmaster Summit
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Old 04-17-2003, 09:48 AM   #30
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I am leaving Montreal around 1:00 p.m. .............with the speed Micheal from Gamma drives.......... We should be there by around 5:00 p.m.

See you in Toronto for the Webmaster Summit
Watch out for speeding and Seatbelt violations, they are on the warpath in Ontario.
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Old 04-17-2003, 09:58 AM   #31
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how come people dont wear seatbelts? Its not like a seatbelt is uncomfortable or hard to use, and its proven its very affective in case of a crash. Why doesnt people use it? I want to know.
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Old 04-17-2003, 09:59 AM   #32
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Yeah, this is getting HELL serious up here.
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Old 04-17-2003, 10:12 AM   #33
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I was at the Raptor game on Tuesday with 20,000 other people and I am still alive.

I am killing this virus with alcohol!

DH
you told me 25,000 people were the game yesterday - did the other 5000 die?
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Old 04-17-2003, 10:15 AM   #34
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you told me 25,000 people were the game yesterday - did the other 5000 die?
I hear dyslexia is deadly...
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Old 04-17-2003, 10:42 AM   #35
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how come people dont wear seatbelts? Its not like a seatbelt is uncomfortable or hard to use, and its proven its very affective in case of a crash. Why doesnt people use it? I want to know.
Personally I think it should be on choice !
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Old 04-17-2003, 10:51 AM   #36
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The U.S. government's policy... "what we don't tell them... can't hurt US"


You ever hear of mad cow disease.... Know how we never really had a large outbreak in the u.s.? Thats becasue mad cow deaths were all attributed to parkinson's.


Do these SARS graphs look right to you? (Canada VS USA)




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Old 04-17-2003, 12:52 PM   #37
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The U.S. government's policy... "what we don't tell them... can't hurt US"


You ever hear of mad cow disease.... Know how we never really had a large outbreak in the u.s.? Thats becasue mad cow deaths were all attributed to parkinson's.


Do these SARS graphs look right to you? (Canada VS USA)




lovely Graphs ...Thank You Jesus
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Old 04-17-2003, 12:54 PM   #38
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man that shits getting scary.

glad i dont leave the house as much as most people do.
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Old 04-17-2003, 02:40 PM   #39
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you told me 25,000 people were the game yesterday - did the other 5000 die?
Dude do you have any idea how big the beers are at the ACC?

DH
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Old 04-17-2003, 02:42 PM   #40
Dugmor
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Quote:
Originally posted by JFK


Watch out for speeding and Seatbelt violations, they are on the warpath in Ontario.

Even more so when we are talking about Micheal ! He likes to drive fast !
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Old 04-17-2003, 03:52 PM   #41
gigi
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Location: Vancouver, BC, Canada
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Quote:
Originally posted by Dugmor
I am leaving Montreal around 1:00 p.m. .............with the speed Micheal from Gamma drives.......... We should be there by around 5:00 p.m.

See you in Toronto for the Webmaster Summit
Give Michael a great big hug from GiGi and tell him to BUCKLE UP!!! hehehe

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Old 04-17-2003, 03:57 PM   #42
gigi
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As for SARS...

My entire family is in Toronto and I can't say that I'm not concerned.

My grandfather is in the hospital in TO right now. He almost died and was in critical care unit at sunnybrook. ONLY my dad (his son) and his wife could visit. No grandkids, no daughter-in-laws..no one.

Then he miraculously pulled through (yaah!) and was put in a regular room. Now, NO ONE can visit...period.

Many of the hospital doors are locked and the ones that are open have security guards planted there.

They are taking all the precautions they can IMO.

Also, I have a friend who is a pharmacist and she says the moral at her work is very low. The gowns and masks everyone wears all day etc etc....it must be hard on the medical workers for sure.

I REALLY hope it blows over soon because my mom is coming here from Toronto in June to be here for the baby coming....

*fingers crossed*
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