NoCarrier

Experts Predict Spread of Mystery Illness

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...re_1&printer=1

Can severe acute respiratory syndrome be stopped? As hard as public health officials work to stamp out the virus, many experts reluctantly conclude it is likely if not inevitable that it eventually will spread everywhere

The highly contagious disease has already sickened more than 2,000 people, and new cases appear daily in Hong Kong, despite an all-out effort to isolate victims and quarantine those at risk.

Experts acknowledge that the eventual course of any new disease is almost impossible to predict. Some frightening new infections have burned themselves out, while others, like AIDS have become global disasters.

However, several features of SARS make epidemiologists, virologists and infectious disease experts fear total victory is unlikely.

"Will it explode into a major epidemic that will propagate over the years? Or will it fizzle out or be contained at a low rate? That's unknown," said Dr. Lee Harrison of the University of Pittsburgh. "I suspect we will see this disease for at least the next several years. It's hard to imagine it will be over soon."

Perhaps the most ominous sign is the steep climb in new cases, especially in Hong Kong, which has had a nearly fourfold increase in just two weeks. Each person who gets it may spread the infection to several others before they even know they have it.

While many are infected through face-to-face contact, evidence is mounting that the virus may also spread through the air or be picked up from contaminated surfaces.

On Friday, President Bush (news - web sites) gave federal health officials the power to quarantine Americans sick with SARS, although there is no plan to use that power now. There are more than 100 suspected cases in the United States, but no one has died.

"Most people are hesitant to say it will just go away," said Dr. Ruth Berkelman, head of Emory University's Center for Public Health Preparedness and Research. "Too many people are infected to think we won't see it for a long time to come."

Besides quarantining the sick, health officials have tried to minimize SARS' spread by urging people with suspicious symptoms not to fly on airlines.

However, some experts worry that those who are clearly sick may not be the biggest concern.

People catch bad colds from friends who have mild ones. And the same may be true for SARS. Those who have slight symptoms or even seem perfectly well could still spread the disease. In such a scenario, isolating the sick and quarantining their contacts will not work.

"We may be able to slow transmission, but we won't be able to stop it if there are many other cases of milder disease out there," said Dr. Arnold Monto, a University of Michigan epidemiologist.

Although the cause of the outbreak has not been proven beyond doubt, investigators say most evidence points to a previously unknown version of the coronavirus, the bug that causes about a third of all colds. Some who study this family of viruses say that because it spreads through coughs and sneezes, they cannot imagine totally wiping it out now that it has infected so many people.

Some suggest that even if this outbreak dies down, the virus could pop up again with no warning or it might follow a seasonal pattern, like colds and flu.

Just how it acts in the long run will depend on its genetic makeup and origins. Birds and other animals have their own versions of coronavirus, and some of them cause much worse disease than the human type. Researchers say SARS may be caused by a coronavirus that moved from animals to people. Or perhaps it is a standard human coronavirus that picked up menacing genes from an animal version of the virus.

Such leaps have happened in the recent past. The hendra virus spread from horses to people in Australia, while the nipah virus went from pigs to humans in Malaysia. However, neither bug then spread from person to person.

But SARS has found a home in humans. Experts say it could grow less virulent as it reproduces inside the human body and then passes on, or it might grow worse.

Whatever happens, the virus is likely to change over time, says Dr. Michael Lai of the University of Southern California, a coronavirus expert. This variety of viruses mutates and swaps genes frequently.

"The severe problems we are seeing right now might represent a very small minority of the coronavirus infections," Lai said.

The World Health Organization (news - web sites) is still officially optimistic. "We think it's possible that this disease can be beaten back, that with more effort this doesn't have to get out of hand," said Dick Thompson, a WHO spokesman.

Such an outcome is far from definite, cautioned Dr. James Hughes, infectious disease chief at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (news - web sites). He called SARS "an urgent global public health threat" and added: "I think we had better all keep an open mind here. We've seen it spread very dramatically and very rapidly."

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Theo

2% of the people that get infected with sars die.

NoCarrier

It's more like 4%

The spanish flu pandemic in 1918 mortality rate was 2.5%

"SARS is actually deadlier than the 1918 flu virus, killing 4 per cent of its victims compared with 2.5 per cent. But most worrisome to Dr. Brown is that, so far, SARS is not following the pattern he has seen in outbreaks of other viral diseases, including Ebola, which often causes a fatal hemorrhagic fever. They start strong and ugly, but they weaken quickly into more benign forms. This is because evolution favours viruses that are milder. Viruses need to be transmitted to a new host in order to survive, so the gentler organisms within a population usually dominate over time.

"A virus that makes you a little less sick, and allows you to walk around the mall, is going to do better than the one that is highly virulent," Dr. Brown says.

The influenza virus in 1918 also did not follow this pattern, and it is unclear whether it ever weakened. It may have disappeared because it ran out of people to infect. Or it may have mutated into a less lethal form after an unusually long period of virulence (more than one year). It troubles Dr. Brown that SARS may be following a similar, unconventional path. Could it be another pandemic?"

http://www.globeandmail.com/servlet/...UU/Comment/Idx

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Theo

oh, i heard 2% from an epidemiologist, the 1st impression i had about this is that the rate was something like 100%

xanx

Doesn't the bible say something about a large disease taking out the entire population ?

NoCarrier

The mortality rate is 4%, like I said, 2.5% was the mortality rate of the spanish flu. Wich killed 48 million people in 1918.

When I heard on the news it was 4%, I didn't think it was that bad.. Until I learned that the spanish flu was less severe than SARS..

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NoCarrier

Pleeeeease.

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foe

This REALLY sucks, hopefully they will find a vacine

Lane

time to invest in drug companies

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stocktrader23

Sound about the only sensible thing to do in this situation.


The sky is falling....
The end is near......
Fear newbs and SARS.

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Hands Free Adult - Join Once, Earn For Life

"I try to make a habit of bouncing my eyes up to the face of a beautiful woman, and often repeat “not mine” in my head or even verbally. She’s not mine. God has her set aside. She’s not mine. She’s His little girl, and she needs me to fight for her by keeping my eyes where they should be."

andi_germany

Well the Spanish Flu killed about 30 Million people all around the world. The people didn't know anything about viruses at all. Nowadays its easier to find an antidode and it will be one available soon.

Libertine

Yeah, like they did with HIV.

On second thought... crap...

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Kat - Fast

30 million? 48 million? There's over 6 <b>billion</b> on the planet! Nature's way of saying 'Stop breeding'

stocktrader23

Barely over 1 Billion when the Spanish Flu hit.

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Hands Free Adult - Join Once, Earn For Life

"I try to make a habit of bouncing my eyes up to the face of a beautiful woman, and often repeat “not mine” in my head or even verbally. She’s not mine. God has her set aside. She’s not mine. She’s His little girl, and she needs me to fight for her by keeping my eyes where they should be."

besterman

I suspect SARS will affect more people of poorer nations (as it says in the article) due to sanitary and living conditions. So probably your chance of getting it also depends on where you live and who is around you...

Swiftone

The bible says a lot of things, and nearly all of it is crap.

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Yo.

Kanoealoha

mmm I thought I had read somewhere that those that died from SARS had two different strains of it...those that survived only had one strain...I could be wrong though...

so is it suppose to be a pandemic? or epidemic?

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TheFLY

It's called fucking air pollution.

retards

digihax

There has been a cure for cancer for some time I am sure there is a cure for aids as well but the goverment does not want it to get out.. dont believe me look up vitamin K its banned in the US And its main purpose is curing cancer.. its from peaches or nectarines or something like the skin or pulp or something look it up you will see I am right I am sure they have a cure for aids as well but are keeping it hush hush so they can piddle thier HGH and other drugs to aids patients and make mad bank..

just my 2 cents tho

Gutterboy

NoCarrier

Pleeeeeeeeeease..

It's amazing how people can believe such things.. Is it ignorance or plain stupidity?

Look. The Pharmaceutical company that will find a cure to aids and or cancer will become the richest company in the world. No human being on earth will be stupid enough to deny the fact. And even so, human beings are not all cheaters.

Now, re-read what you wrote out loud, and slap yourself in the face please. Thank you.

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mastamindz

Fuck it we are all dead.

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Kanoealoha

no we aren't...some will live others will die...think of the rabbits in australia

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NoCarrier

Sigh.. Only 4% of people infected die.

The worst case scenario (everyone on the planet gets infected) No, it won't happen.. That's impossible.. We are in the "what if" scenario here..

4% of 7 billion = 280 million people die.

So you see?

It's not that bad.

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TheJimmy

sinner

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