Joshua G

The USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll | Understanding America Study

looks like the pivot is working, along with those naked trump statues...that was a backfire. look what happened in the polls!

hilary better get out of vacation mode, or the hospice, or wherever shes hiding. she's slipping away!

mineistaken

#trumptrain

kane

I take you no longer think polls are made up pieces of fiction?

Joshua G

what will liberals do when she flakes out & tim kaine is your nominee???

Joshua G

im just playing on your turf. otherwise id have nothing to discuss.

no poll matters until november 8, or at least about a week out...then the polls get it about right.

today lets have fun, OK kane? the liberal media uses them to rig the election. so i have a right to pick on liberals & their bullshit polls.

Rochard

No idea what website that is.... Let's go with something a little bit better well known.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

Nah. Clinton is still winning. It's not even close.

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Joshua G

how stupid will democrats look if their nominee gets too sick to run an effective campaign?

hahahahahahaha

Joshua G

clinton...cash...

plaster

Trumps gonna take the media on one hell of a ride and when he wins their is going to be a lot of chirping going on.

Then he's going to throw hillary in the slammer for shits and giggles.

kane

There is a part of me that wants him to win just so we can see the shit show that ensues.

candyflip

University of Southern California and the LA Times? You live in California and you've never heard of these two organizations?

Meanwhile, I've never heard of ReallyClearPolitics or whatever it's called.

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mineistaken

Dayumn, you are stopping the trump train!

kane

Real Clear doesn't actually do any polling. They just aggregate the results of the most prominent polling places.

candyflip

Gotcha. Never heard of it either way, but it's funny that Rochard would say he's never heard of USC or the LA Times (which I'm sure he actually has) but then throw out some website most people have probably never heard of.

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escorpio

Me, too. I think he's a fucking clown but I would love to see the lib meltdown.

Joshua G

mostly the shit show will be small trivial things, amplified into 911 crisis every day by panicked liberal media that convinced themselves that he is going to use nukes. & every cop on black problem will be trump race war.

the liberal hyperbole has been absurd this year. especially the huffpost, they cant even call themselves journalists anymore.

mineistaken

EPIC

Spunky

The great Rumpster comeback!

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kane

I think the first meltdown will be the liberals who won't be able to believe he won.

That will be followed closely by half the republican party which hates him and now has to deal with him as the leader of the party and the nation for the next four years.

Next up will be other countries who will not believe we just elected a guy who is actually a shade of orange president.

Then we will see how it goes. If he proves to be a decent leader things will calm down. If he goes off the rails the shit show will continue.

No matter what he does liberals will blame him for everything that goes wrong much like conservatives have done to Obama.

Joshua G

good post. i dont think its even close to half the GOP hates him. the only hostility comes from conservative purists, religious right, & former bush cronies. the press overblows them.

only the europe countries will be appauled. the middle eastern rich kids will be relieved they wont have to deal with PC feminist administration. china & russia will be happy since they will be free to expand their reach.

the most promising possibility of trump is, he is nonpartisan enough, both parties hate him enough, he might be able to get odd coalitions of support for things like his trade issues. he is willing to deal. nobody is considering this.

Rochard

I live in Northern California, not Southern California - that's four hundred miles away from me. I have family that lives in San Bernardino. I've heard of the LA Times, of course, but I am as about familiar with them as I am newspapers in Texas, Florida, or New York. I've vaguely heard of University of Southern California, but only know the name. I am much more familiar with California State University, which seems to have campuses all over the place. California has more colleges than any other state.

Really Clear Politics seems to pull data from most legit sources, which is why I use them to gauge the current trends. Why would I trust a single poll from one newspaper and one college when I don't know if either of them are biased towards one candidate or another.

I also use 438 to track political trends.... http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...-forecast/#now

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DrJsn

I doubt Trump will be a good president, but I hope he wins. The next 4 years with Trump as pres will be a circus of epic proportions, I just hope it isn't a war zone.

kane

That last sentence might be what could make him into a good president. Many politicians go into a negotiation with two things in mind: getting a good deal for whatever it is they are working on and getting a good deal for their party. They often turn down or accept deals based on party loyalty which ends up being a shitty way to operate. Trump may not do that. He may work to make the best deal period and to hell with party loyalty. Part of me thinks that is why some republicans hate him. They are worried he will actually work with the democrats.

pimpmaster9000

If trump wins I call idiocracy as official...

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bronco67

...and you just told us why it's better. Or did you think you were saying it sucks because of that?

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bronco67

If we go by current polling, the amount of states either leaning blue or definitely blue is around 240 electoral votes.

270 are needed...so if things stay close to the way they are Hilary will start the election close to 240. Even if Trump gets all the "in play" states he will still lose.

The math is impossible for Trump unless the entire eastern seaboard flips to Red.

Trump just hired as campaign chief the man who runs one of the slimiest White Nationalist website in the country...I doubt he's going help Trump appeal to new voters other than the mouthbreathing waterheads who support him now. It's going to become even more of a train wreck. You can't sell fear of Mexicans and Syrians to smart people. There's just not enough scared white people to vote for him. And by the way with the new ad, showing Latinos being rounded up and chased like cockroaches and protraying them as sub-human --- do you think that's going to win them over? No. They're going to come out and vote for his opponent. Have a fucking brain.

Joshua you're a fucking idiot. Smash yourself in the face with a shovel.

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candyflip

Seems to me like he was just explaining what it is to someone who had never heard of it.

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kane

Mostly just explaining what it was, but I think it is good because it shows each poll then it averages them all out.

escorpio

If Trump wins we're going to bomb Serbia just for old time's sake.

onwebcam

Looks like some black folk are starting to see through the liberal scheme. If this trend continues even a little Hillary is done.

After Milwaukee Speech, Trump Jumps 10 Points with Black Voters | LifeZette

plaster

Will be 95% by 8th of scorpio.

JFK

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Rochard

I agree. It will be one continuous game of drama and the only winners will be the press.

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Rochard

I don't see how Trump can win either.... The math just isn't there. It's not even close.

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plaster

Every single day during the republican race on fox news the 1237 delegate map, was mapped out. And every single day they showed how it was virtually impossible to hit the 1237.

What happened? Same thing that will happen in primary race. It's dejavu all over again with this silly liberal media.

baddog

Bullshit; I don't think you are the sharpest tool in the shed but no way do I believe you have not heard of the LA Times and USC

Rochard

My lord... Did you not read where I said I've heard of the LA Times?

As for USC, no, not really. There are 400 colleges in California. I've lived in Northern California since 1989 or so, don't follow college sports, and don't know anything about colleges four hundred miles from me. In fact, I couldn't name a single college in Southern California other than UC San Bernardino and I can only name that because a family member went there. Am I expected to know all colleges between Sacramento and San Diego?

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Joshua G

no GFY libs - the math, as laid out today, is a fraud. there is no math. just like there is no poll, except the one that matters on november 8.

there is 11 weeks left, & in only 2 weeks the race went from perceived blowout to nearly tied, again.

it will be a close election, with the TURNOUT being what matters. all the energy math is with trump. he is in lousiana, earning votes. Hilary is...where libs? the liberal media with its fake stories & fake polls cannot hide that trump is winning at politics 101. shaking more hands, bigger crowds, more social media energy. he even makes his enemies so mad, they embarrass themselves with naked trump statues.

hilary has no energy. she cant fill a high school gym.

onwebcam

Most Immigrants Back Trump on Ideological Test, Poll Shows

https://morningconsult.com/2016/08/1...st-poll-shows/

DrJsn

One thing about this election, it is probably the most divisive. Everywhere people are getting worked up over their hatred of Trump and Clinton. Its got a strange effect on people.

Joshua G

OMG the poll was tied yesterday when i posted. today trump is up 2 points. what happened, GFY libs? as soon as hilary takes a break (one she needs, apparently) her numbers collapse. nothing even happened, no ISIS attack, just 1 cop murder from black lives matter that the liberal media ignored...

what happened to that big lead, libs? did those naked statues backfire?

Relic

SuckOnThis

An LA Times article on why their own poll is full of shit.




Why the USC/L.A. Times tracking poll differs from other surveys - LA Times

Joshua G

it never called its own poll bullshit numbnuts. it said its a different barometer, which weighs the last election somewhat, unlike normal polls. do you even read your own links or do you not understand the words you read?

the simple fact a guy, that is a political rookie, with nutter positions, is tied with the experienced polished turd, who has the media in her corner, says everything about this election. hilary is total garbage, even worse than a rookie bigot, she's that bad. the media cannot cover for her. she should be winning by 40.

shes going down, suckonballs.

plaster

Trump in the lead!! Libs be going crazy...

SuckOnThis

You have a severe reading comprehension problem. Still drunk from last night?


All pollsters weight their results somewhat to make sure their samples match known demographics ? the right proportions of men and women, for example, or blacks, whites and Latinos.

The Daybreak poll goes a step further and weights the sample to account for how people say they voted in 2012: It?s set so that 25% of the sample are voters who say they cast a ballot for Mitt Romney and 27% for President Obama. The rest are either too young to have voted four years ago or say they didn?t vote.

The potential problem is that people tend to fib about how they voted. Polls have often found that the percentage of people who say after an election that they voted for the winner exceeds the winner?s actual vote.

If that?s the case this year, then weighting for the vote history would result in slightly too many Republican voters in the sample, which would probably boost Trump?s standing by a point or two.

bronco67

It's funny how Joshua scours the internet looking for one poll to get that confirmation bias he needs to destroy all of the libtards at GFY. He posts his golden nugget like it actually means something when all statistical data at this time has Hillary Clinton beating Trump, and winning the electoral map as soon as the election starts. He's pathetic and also ignorant. I would guess ugly too.

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Joshua G

what your telling me is, you have no idea what that paragraph is saying...it said potential problem...not actual...based on a speculation that some voters may or may not fib on who they voted for in 2012. which would "probably" change the weighting, by a point or 2. AKA the whole statement is writers biased guess on who was lying...

sorry that this is too complicated for you to understand. its liberal kool aid you are falling for. your one of the drone followers of the liberal media, plugged in like a robot. now go get ready for back-to-school, sixth grader.

Joshua G

you mean all the polls conducted by NBC, CNN, motherjones, moveon, huffpost, AP, liberal rag after liberal rag after liberal rag. corporate media, do you even know what that is? then you come at me & tell me thats real. its as real as those fluff pieces on the NBC rio olympics coverage.

another dumbed down dupe of the liberal press. i would tell you to get back to school, but you already failed out.

SuckOnThis

Of course it's POTENTIAL, the election hasn't happened yet you microphallus suffering tard.

Yesterday you were arguing Mormons were liberal, last month you were saying Trump would take 49 out of 50 states. My advice to you is anytime you're faced with a decision you should do the opposite of what you think, you might stand a greater chance of making a right decision.