I am not sure if I am surprised or not. In the beginning I thought it was going to be Hillary vs Bush. Bush just never had any excitement. And Sanders is giving Clinton a run for her money.
Trump has 30% of the vote. As people drop, their support will go to Cruz or Rubio. Trump is nobody's 2nd choice. The gop winner will be the one who was the 2nd choice of the most voters... Likely Rubio.
Trump has 30% of the vote. As people drop their support will go to Cruz or Rubio. Trump is nobody's 2nd choice. The gop winner will be the one who was the 2nd choice of the most voters... Likely Rubio.
So basically Trump will win all (except iowa) and Rubio wins one last one (when all others dropped out) and somehow that one last state would trump all the others?
Trump has 30% of the vote. As people drop their support will go to Cruz or Rubio. Trump is nobody's 2nd choice. The gop winner will be the one who was the 2nd choice of the most voters... Likely Rubio.
That is one theory, but polls with he and rubio alone show him winning 47/46. If he weren't anyone's second choice, how could that be the case?
Trump has 30% of the vote. As people drop their support will go to Cruz or Rubio. Trump is nobody's 2nd choice. The gop winner will be the one who was the 2nd choice of the most voters... Likely Rubio.
Honestly some of you people are incredibly stupid. You continually talk in specifics which are completely false.
"Trump is nobody's 2nd choice"..... so out of MILLIONS of voters, Trump is NOBODIES second choice? NOT ONE out of MILLIONS of people could POSSIBLY have Trump as second choice? NOBODY.
It's easy enough to watch the election and see who is right.
So far it's shaping up to be Hillary vs. Rubio.... just the way the establishment wants it.... and the status quo will remain largely intact for 4-8 more years.
It's easy enough to watch the election and see who is right.
So far it's shaping up to be Hillary vs. Rubio.... just the way the establishment wants it.... and the status quo will remain largely intact for 4-8 more years.
How would Rubio be there if he did not win any single state primaries? Or at the best case "when everybody dropped" the single last one?
It's easy enough to watch the election and see who is right.
So far it's shaping up to be Hillary vs. Rubio.... just the way the establishment wants it.... and the status quo will remain largely intact for 4-8 more years.
"So far it's shaping up to be Hillary vs. Rubio" like Rubio in a distant third and Hillary being challenged a massive amount more then was first expected?
Trump has 30% of the vote. As people drop, their support will go to Cruz or Rubio. Trump is nobody's 2nd choice. The gop winner will be the one who was the 2nd choice of the most voters... Likely Rubio.
I would put my money on that. Rubio however seems to have the most potential to derail himself.
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It's easy enough to watch the election and see who is right.
So far it's shaping up to be Hillary vs. Rubio.... just the way the establishment wants it.... and the status quo will remain largely intact for 4-8 more years.
People are quoting stats and facts that have nothing to with and no bearing on anything then they attach great importance to those to fluff up their arguments.
Trump has 30% of the vote. As people drop, their support will go to Cruz or Rubio. Trump is nobody's 2nd choice. The gop winner will be the one who was the 2nd choice of the most voters... Likely Rubio.
GOOD Point I thought last night that the way the RNC can get trump out is to either oust Rubio or Cruz ASAP problem is which one would bow out "for the good of the party"
Dont get me wrong I LOVE what Trump is doing and its clear that the media and the RNC do NOT want him but it appears to me the only way that they will get rid of him is to convince either Rubio or Cruz to step down and support the other.
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The problem for Rubio (and the RNC) is that candidates like Kasich and Carson are staying in with zero chance of winning. The only reason they stay in is they are looking for promises... Likely wanting cabinet positions or VP offers in order to drop and endorse someone else.
The sooner they drop out the faster Trump goes away. If they stay in too long, it only serves to help the Democrat win... If Hillary is gone, trump is in or Rubio stumbles then Bloomberg will hire Hillary's operatives and be a strong dark horse late.
70% of Republicans and 85+% of Anericans want anyone but trump. Once the race thins, his 32% of republicans won't win him anything.
The problem for Rubio (and the RNC) is that candidates like Kasich and Carson are staying in with zero chance of winning. The only reason they stay in is they are looking for promises... Likely wanting cabinet positions or VP offers in order to drop and endorse someone else.
The sooner they drop out the faster Trump goes away. If they stay in too long, it only serves to help the Democrat win... If Hillary is gone, trump is in or Rubio stumbles then Bloomberg will hire Hillary's operatives and be a strong dark horse late.
70% of Republicans and 85+% of Anericans want anyone but trump. Once the race thins, his 32% of republicans won't win him anything.
How about instead of posting nonsense you address legit questions?
1.
Originally posted by mineistaken
So basically Trump will win all (except iowa) and Rubio wins one last one (when all others dropped out) and somehow that one last state would trump all the others?
Originally posted by mineistaken
How would Rubio be there if he did not win any single state primaries? Or at the best case "when everybody dropped" the single last one?
2.
Originally posted by ilnjscb
That is one theory, but polls with he and rubio alone show him winning 47/46. If he weren't anyone's second choice, how could that be the case?
Conveniently ignoring contra arguments and posting ridiculous nonsense.
Republicans who hate Trump would still reluctantly vote for him if it came down to him and Hillary. Trump supposedly had a ceiling but he keeps overhead pressing that celing. First it was supposedly 15% , then 25%, then 35%. The establishment is just bullshitting trying to find a way to get Trump out.
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When the other dropped out, where did their numbers go? Who are they for now? Trumps and Cruz didn't see a rise, Rubio did. Jeb dropped out with 8-10% of the vote. Who do you think those people who used to support Jeb now choose? When Kasich drops, his support also goes to Rubio. That leaves Trump hovering around the same 30%, Cruz at 15-20% and Rubio at closer to 50% of voters.
You don't win a fragmented election by having a small group love you as their first choice, you win fragmented elections by being the most common second choice among voters. Plenty of people want Kasich, Cruz, Paul, Trump, etc... But ask them who their second choice is and almost zero say trump. He is either your first choice or your last choice. That makes the 30% he has now about the limit of all he will ever get, while someone like Rubio will continue gaining momentum by being the second choice of people whose candidates have dropped out.
Trump is leading a marathon by sprinting, that doesn't help you lead at the finish line when it counts.
When the other dropped out, where did their numbers go? Who are they for now? Trumps and Cruz didn't see a rise, Rubio did. Jeb dropped out with 8-10% of the vote. Who do you think those people who used to support Jeb now choose? When Kasich drops, his support also goes to Rubio. That leaves Trump hovering around the same 30%, Cruz at 15-20% and Rubio at closer to 50% of voters.
You don't win a fragmented election by having a small group love you as their first choice, you win fragmented elections by being the most common second choice among voters. Plenty of people want Kasich, Cruz, Paul, Trump, etc... But ask them who their second choice is and almost zero say trump. He is either your first choice or your last choice. That makes the 30% he has now about the limit of all he will ever get, while someone like Rubio will continue gaining momentum by being the second choice of people whose candidates have dropped out.
Trump is leading a marathon by sprinting, that doesn't help you lead at the finish line when it counts.
If that is what happens, it may be too late by the time it does. If Cruz and Rubio don't do very well on Super Tuesday they will both be in serious trouble and by the time others drop out and their support switches to another candidate Trump may have a large enough delagate lead that he can't be caught.
When the other dropped out, where did their numbers go? Who are they for now? Trumps and Cruz didn't see a rise, Rubio did. Jeb dropped out with 8-10% of the vote. Who do you think those people who used to support Jeb now choose? When Kasich drops, his support also goes to Rubio. That leaves Trump hovering around the same 30%, Cruz at 15-20% and Rubio at closer to 50% of voters.
Huh?
"Rubio at closer to 50%"???
The latest poll had Trump at 34.2% nationwide
Bush at 5.4% nationwide, Kasich at 8.6% and Rubio at 16%.
So IF every voter went to Rubio in your scenario...he still only comes up at 30% tops. Not 50%. lol
I think you might be like all the political analysts on t.v.: in denial.
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